What to do in a bear market

[rdluffy]

Exchanges like binances and many others are the main ones that pump scamcoins to make people not see them as scamcoins, so people feel safe to invest in them and then they die but before that binance and other exchanges dump before the coin die, people lose money and then binance and other exchanges create a story about it and stays as it goes, 95% of all altcoins are scamcoins. I lost lot of money in mtgox 2014, almost lost money on btc-e, acted fast on other exchanges before they died, mtgox in 2014 bankruptcy taught me many things.

Also Binance CEO said he lost 1.4 bilion on luna but I'm sure before that he dumped so much luna, he had billions on it, sure he lost small amount of what he had but that he will not tell. One thing I have learned through these years is, exchanges by law are just legal thieves, only leave coins that you are willing to lose. I'm still trying to get my money from mtgox, it's been 8 years and still waiting.

Now I see clearly, I didn't know you are here since that time and that incident. You've been cautious since them, you're calling bear market soon enough to not maximize your gains, but soon enough to not get burned 

I have 2 x 3080, I paid 800 usd for each in january 2021, I spent 100 usd to change thermal pads on them, I never bought them to mine, so I will not sell, yes I'm planning to buy 1 x 4090 for that new samsung monitor g8 1196 mini leds at 3840x2160 4k 240hz for gaming.

Can I ask why bought 2x high end cards, paying to change thermals but not to mine?
I'm just asking because SLI is not an option anymore so it doesn't make sense to buy more than 1 card 
Confess, you're a miner and bought cards to mine 

If power cost is equal to mining revenue, all the coins go to paying the power bill, and zero are left to HODL. On top of that, the video cards depreciate over time, especially during a bear market. A $380 RTX 3060 card can easily be worth just $200 if ETH went to $900 or ETH went to PoS.

That's why I'm selling half my video cards now, in the hope of building even more rigs if/when the real bear market starts. GPU prices are still above MSRP.

Are you really willing to buy cards in a crash, let's say like you "in the real bear"?
I ask that because I see a lot of people saying that will buy cards or coins when it's cheaper, but when the crash comes, only a few have courage to buy
For example, rx480, 470 were dumped a few years ago, pretty cheap, and I saw some guys buying to gaming pc, but I did not see someone buying to mine, because there were no profits to be made...

[Metroid]

Now I see clearly, I didn't know you are here since that time and that incident. You've been cautious since them, you're calling bear market soon enough to not maximize your gains, but soon enough to not get burned  

Can I ask why bought 2x high end cards, paying to change thermals but not to mine?
I'm just asking because SLI is not an option anymore so it doesn't make sense to buy more than 1 card  
Confess, you're a miner and bought cards to mine

The 2 x 3080 are for deep learning and AI reverse engineering graphical content, miners usually buy dozens of gpus, anyway, it is always better to buy coins except in the bull market, mining makes no sense if you are looking for profit, yeah my plan is to wait the real bottom and buy just like when I did in 2018. I'm patient, I can wait, funny will be sheeps buying now and then a 50% crash comes in few months and they could have bought twice as much, in this market if people are not patient then they get burnt easily, bear market is here to stay for at least 12 months more and by the way this is a pre bear market, bear market things are much much gloomier hehe

[Coinfarm ventures]

I ask that because I see a lot of people saying that will buy cards or coins when it's cheaper, but when the crash comes, only a few have courage to buy

I absolutely have the courage to buy $30k+ worth of mining rigs during the real bear market, when or if they're half of MSRP. I have gone through the last bear market and this strategy has given me a 5x return on my money. I'll buy the rigs and assume they will make zero profit for 3 years in a row. Only then would I give up and sell the cards.

[cudapop]

I always found it curious why you did this. I know you bought your eth at around $80 so selling at $1500 was a huge profit, but why only target around $100+ above the previous ath from back in 2018? Why didn't you dca out, ie. layer out, say 25% at $1500, 25% at $2500, etc.?

Everything rose too fast, it was insane, eth did not but altcoins rose too much, so, because altcoins rose too fast a huge crash was imminent, so I sold before that, yea there are phases but insanity goes beyond market phases, crypto is 99% speculation, 1% is error. I bought some altcoins few months ago and sold them when I saw 4 times rise and then all crashed much much lower than what I bought. When on profit, sell, there are levels of greedy, I was not too greedy, yes I was greedy because I got almost 20 times profit and it was enough for me, aiming higher than that is delusion but each to its own.

It is easy to trade the past ...

Do you really think that "layering-out/dcaing-out starting at 1.5k" is "trading the past"?

Back at the start of 2019, looking at what eth did over 2017-2018, were you not possibly thinking: "ok, eth reached 1.4k last time, I expect that it can reach at least 1.5k next bull run", so you end up planning to layer-out starting at 1.5k.

That's not "trading the past", that's just executing a plan you made based on the previous bull run.

In Metroid's case he based his decision mainly on how eth reached certain price levels (or how the market in general reached those levels) and not just on the price level itself. When I made my plan back in Jan 2019, I did not consider how the market reached certain price levels and only looked at the price levels (though I was greedier as my layer-out start point was at twice the previous bull run ath). For the next bull run, I'll probably factor in how the price reaches certain levels and not just the actual price level.

[Metroid]

Do you really think that "layering-out/dcaing-out starting at 1.5k" is "trading the past"?

Back at the start of 2019, looking at what eth did over 2017-2018, were you not possibly thinking: "ok, eth reached 1.4k last time, I expect that it can reach at least 1.5k next bull run", so you end up planning to layer-out starting at 1.5k.

That's not "trading the past", that's just executing a plan you made based on the previous bull run.

In Metroid's case he based his decision mainly on how eth reached certain price levels (or how the market in general reached those levels) and not just on the price level itself. When I made my plan back in Jan 2019, I did not consider how the market reached certain price levels and only looked at the price levels (though I was greedier as my layer-out start point was at twice the previous bull run ath). For the next bull run, I'll probably factor in how the price reaches certain levels and not just the actual price level.

Well I had many posts that I said eth 2.0 price is above 5k, eth 1.0 would not hit 5k, even though I said that I did not wait because how the market was insane in few days and I acted fast and sold 80% of all eth I had, I thought it would crash fast too and I could buy back much lower, it did crash back 1050 usd and I did not buy it back because I thought it would be a trap, scammers were spreading too much bs, people were getting insane, so I preferred not to buy back. What made eth to rise to almost 5k was the fact a fork was coming out to burn eth fees then from 1500 it got fast to 3k, when eth price was higher than of what i had sold around 1700 then I preferred not to buy even though I knew scammers would rise it fast. The same thing happened when I created a sell order of my 20% remaining eth at 4900 usd, it got as high as 4820 usd, yeah for few dollars I missed the chance to sell my 20% of eth left, to this day I never sold them. I missed the chance to sell for 4800 usd ,why should I sell for 1800 usd? If I was in need of money yes but since i'm 60% in fiat, I dont need to sell them, yes I could have sold high and bought now but I missed that sell point. You see, market price is market price, if you miss, might have another chance to sell high, yeah might take few years but that is how the game is.

For the next term, I need to know what the bottom is going to be and make projections where this will be going next bullrun, my initial projection right now is 12 times for btc and 25 times for eth, eth this last bullrun rose 50 times and btc 23 times, so cut that on 50%, every cycle will be 50% less as per my projections. The crash will also be cut in half, so eth will crash as much as 6 - 8 times and btc 3 to 5 from top, meaning btc will crash to 14k - 22k and eth 625 - 833 usd on this bear market. This is not bear market yet.

[cudapop]

... my initial projection right now is 12 times for btc ...

I really hope that 12x prediction for the next btc bull run is correct.

Back in 2019, of the various computations to predict btc bull run peaks one of the simplest ones was to use the low-to-high ratio for each historical cycle, and it went something like:

Nov 2011 low to Nov 2013 peak was an approx 500x multplier.
Jan 2015 low to Dec 2017 peak was an approx 100x multiplier.

The multiplier change between these 2 cycles was 500/100 = 5, so the projected low-to-high ratio for the next cycle (i.e. 2021 bull run) would theoretically be 100/5 = 20.

And what was the actual multiplier in the 2021 bull run: approx 23

If that trend in the decrease in the multiplier by a factor of 5 holds true then the next bull run multiplier could be in the 4x to 5x range only! If the recent 25k low turns out to be the actual cycle low then the next peak could be in the 100k-125k range. That's some depressing sh*t!

I always felt that the low-to-high ratio method was too lowball in it's predictions, but the fact that it was almost spot on for the 2021 peak made it scary.

[Metroid]

I always felt that the low-to-high ratio method was too lowball in it's predictions, but the fact that it was almost spot on for the 2021 peak made it scary.

Yeah I know, I said that 100k would never hit this cycle and I was spot on, scammers were spreading that 100k would be within weeks, poor people that fell for that, my top numbers(79k - 89k) were a lot more conservative than 99.9% traders, 69k was also one of my top numbers because in 2013, btc got as high as 6999 yuan on chinese exchanges, so I thought that number would come back in 2021, many people at that time thought btc would hit 10k yuan but it never hit. So I thought last year looked so much alike 2013, the hype and everything.

[CryptoATM]

1. Expect many crypto projects to vanish into thin air.
2. For now stick with BTC since the bear market is just getting started.
3. After a few months when we see a new dip then you can start buying some tokens that survive the insane crash.
4. 2023 might be bloodier due to possible recession, I suggest keeping a few dollars aside just in case.
5. Sell a few GPUs and use the rest to mine credible projects like Flux.

[Metroid]

This article should be good to read if you are a miner, be extremely careful if you plan to buy gpus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0BPrDK6xmE

[Coinfarm ventures]

1. Expect many crypto projects to vanish into thin air.
2. For now stick with BTC since the bear market is just getting started.
3. After a few months when we see a new dip then you can start buying some tokens that survive the insane crash.
4. 2023 might be bloodier due to possible recession, I suggest keeping a few dollars aside just in case.
5. Sell a few GPUs and use the rest to mine credible projects like Flux.

Exactly my strategy

[adaseb]

I always felt that the low-to-high ratio method was too lowball in it's predictions, but the fact that it was almost spot on for the 2021 peak made it scary.

Yeah I know, I said that 100k would never hit this cycle and I was spot on, scammers were spreading that 100k would be within weeks, poor people that fell for that, my top numbers(79k - 89k) were a lot more conservative than 99.9% traders, 69k was also one of my top numbers because in 2013, btc got as high as 6999 yuan on chinese exchanges, so I thought that number would come back in 2021, many people at that time thought btc would hit 10k yuan but it never hit. So I thought last year looked so much alike 2013, the hype and everything.

I also knew $100K wouldn’t hit however I didn’t think $69K would be the top. Since we had a $65K top prior and it looked like it had more room to run, it seemed that the top would be anywhere in the $75-85k area. Which would also be the $100,000 per BTC in AUD and CAD currencies. Would of sold everything there but unfortunately never hit.

It’s a shame that we had conservative targets and neither of them got hit. I actually also assumed that $50K might be the top so sold a bunch at like $49.5K.

Either way, nothing you can do now.

[Metroid]

I also knew $100K wouldn’t hit however I didn’t think $69K would be the top. Since we had a $65K top prior and it looked like it had more room to run, it seemed that the top would be anywhere in the $75-85k area. Which would also be the $100,000 per BTC in AUD and CAD currencies. Would of sold everything there but unfortunately never hit.

It’s a shame that we had conservative targets and neither of them got hit. I actually also assumed that $50K might be the top so sold a bunch at like $49.5K.

Either way, nothing you can do now.

ETH is almost at the same price I sold in the end of january 2021, 1500 usd, a mistake here is to buy those eth back, the trend is to go to hehel and this is just the beginning, my crash bottom projection still 6 - 8.5 times down from 4.8k which is 800 - 564 usd, imagine eth fork happening now, those millions of eth unlocked and people running to sell their bag to get some of that fiat, imagine how many people lost the opportunity to sell at 4k because they staked their eth and now are seeing eth crashing below 1600 usd and soon below 1000 usd, that is good lesson, I told them not to stake anything, they never listened.

[cudapop]

... imagine eth fork happening now, those millions of eth unlocked ...

The withdrawal function for staked eth is not part of the merge. Core devs will schedule enabling of withdrawals in a future fork post-merge, but no hard date has been published.

[Metroid]

... imagine eth fork happening now, those millions of eth unlocked ...

The withdrawal function for staked eth is not part of the merge. Core devs will schedule enabling of withdrawals in a future fork post-merge, but no hard date has been published.

Really? since 2020 as far as I know, reason I myself have not staked my eth was because coins would only be unlocked as soon as the merger was finalized, that was the deal, did they change it?

[cudapop]

... imagine eth fork happening now, those millions of eth unlocked ...

The withdrawal function for staked eth is not part of the merge. Core devs will schedule enabling of withdrawals in a future fork post-merge, but no hard date has been published.

Really? since 2020 as far as I know, reason I myself have not staked my eth was because coins would only be unlocked as soon as the merger was finalized, that was the deal, did they change it?

Here's an interview conducted with Tim Beiko a few days ago where he clarifies on this, see at time 53:40 in the interview:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUA-HzIbWD0

[Metroid]

Here's an interview conducted with Tim Beiko a few days ago where he clarifies on this, see at time 53:40 in the interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUA-HzIbWD0

Thank you very much for the link, is not a misconception, is what they told people that wanted to stake. Now they have come up with another narrative which I called lie and bs altogether because they understood that as soon as the merge was finalized, people who staked their eth would sell as fast as they could. See that is why you can't trust any coin devs, especially eth which is heavily centralized. Thankgod I have not staked my coins at that time, did not fall for their fairy tale bs.

[adaseb]

Don’t know if you guys are paying attention to ETH. Basically there is some illiquid staked token called stETH which has depegged from ETH.

This is a token that should be redeamable for 1 ETH after the merge or 6-12 months after. And it’s causing a crisis right now for ETH.

Some large holders like Celcius own a lot of this token and they are about to become insolvent. Also the way Defi lending works, some use stETH for collateral and if the depeg keeps dropping it will set off a huge liquidation of many assets.

ETH is going down again, into yearly lows on a very illiquid Saturday.

Not looking good.

[wheelz1200]

In a bear market should one be buying graphic cards or one should be buying coins instead?.

There is no right answer.  Depends on your mining costs and what you can get the cards for.  We haven't seen close to bottom yet when we do you should see cards hit an equilibrium price because they won't completely drop to nothing, asics will but not cards.  After that equilibrium price is seen coins will keep falling and makes a better case to buy coin direct than cards.  I'm in a wait and see pattern right now.

[Metroid]

Don’t know if you guys are paying attention to ETH. Basically there is some illiquid staked token called stETH which has depegged from ETH.

This is a token that should be redeamable for 1 ETH after the merge or 6-12 months after. And it’s causing a crisis right now for ETH.

Some large holders like Celcius own a lot of this token and they are about to become insolvent. Also the way Defi lending works, some use stETH for collateral and if the depeg keeps dropping it will set off a huge liquidation of many assets.

ETH is going down again, into yearly lows on a very illiquid Saturday.

Not looking good.

It has started, yeah not looking good, people should be very careful now, I would not buy anything at all, I mean nothing, keep your money safe and wait few months, september 2022 - march 2023. That is when we will know the bottom.

In a bear market should one be buying graphic cards or one should be buying coins instead?.

There is no right answer.  Depends on your mining costs and what you can get the cards for.  We haven't seen close to bottom yet when we do you should see cards hit an equilibrium price because they won't completely drop to nothing, asics will but not cards.  After that equilibrium price is seen coins will keep falling and makes a better case to buy coin direct than cards.  I'm in a wait and see pattern right now.

In my case, I always bought coins in the bear market, mining is only good if you buy gpus before the bullrun, pre bull market and sell the coins after few months the bull market started and before the pre bear market starts.

[wheelz1200]

Don’t know if you guys are paying attention to ETH. Basically there is some illiquid staked token called stETH which has depegged from ETH.

This is a token that should be redeamable for 1 ETH after the merge or 6-12 months after. And it’s causing a crisis right now for ETH.

Some large holders like Celcius own a lot of this token and they are about to become insolvent. Also the way Defi lending works, some use stETH for collateral and if the depeg keeps dropping it will set off a huge liquidation of many assets.

ETH is going down again, into yearly lows on a very illiquid Saturday.

Not looking good.

It has started, yeah not looking good, people should be very careful now, I would not buy anything at all, I mean nothing, keep your money safe and wait few months, september 2022 - march 2023. That is when we will know the bottom.

In a bear market should one be buying graphic cards or one should be buying coins instead?.

There is no right answer.  Depends on your mining costs and what you can get the cards for.  We haven't seen close to bottom yet when we do you should see cards hit an equilibrium price because they won't completely drop to nothing, asics will but not cards.  After that equilibrium price is seen coins will keep falling and makes a better case to buy coin direct than cards.  I'm in a wait and see pattern right now.

In my case, I always bought coins in the bear market, mining is only good if you buy gpus before the bullrun, pre bull market and sell the coins after few months the bull market started and before the pre bear market starts.

Understood and yeah buying coin instead of cards before a bull is always good but in the end the thing with cards is that ypu will always be able to sell them.  Buying coins can end up at zero for at least a lot of altcoins.  So I guess it comes down to risk/reward too.  All in all I think there is an argument either way depending on your risk appetite.