If we would take halvings as the main criterion that will determine the price, then everything we have written really makes sense, provided that Bitcoin still follows its pattern. However, it should not be forgotten that there may always be some factor x that will bring about the disorder - or as they would say in the famous SF film series that disturbance in the Force can occur.
In addition, each new pump will sooner or later be stopped at one point, and a large number of long-term holders have their exit points at $100k, and at any round number above that. If we are talking about reaching $250k per 1 BTC, we need to know that one thing is to get to that point, and something completely different to maintain stability at that point.
Definitely one of those who's eyeing the halving. Every other indicator for me's become less and less reliable (though to be technical, 200MA is still something I comfort myself with when days are dark) but halving is something that seems to remind the markets of what's tried and true: that new supply is encroaching sub 1 BTC.
That said, fundamentals and underlying market foundations have never been more different with each new cycle, so while trends and patterns should largely follow the conventional assembly line of top, capitulation, accumulation etc. I think the peaks (and corresponding floors) are what can no longer be predicted.
I really like the 250k target but that's still about 300% gain from the Nov ATH... a first time Bitcoin will surpass the performance of the last ATH-on-ATH.