Bitcoin's latest decline was triggered by quantum computing headlines

[Hydrogen]

Quantum computer news headlines were published on may 9th, 2022 triggering a BTC decline.

I made a thread about it here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5397929.msg60088055#msg60088055


Our latest decline began on june 9th, 2022.



https://i.imgur.com/ZwYCASB.jpg


Below is the news article which I believe triggered the downtrend.

Ministry of Defence acquires government's first quantum computer

June 9, 2022

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has acquired the government's first quantum computer.

Quantum computers can make very complex calculations extremely quickly and their creators say they can solve the problems regular computers cannot.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ministry-defence-acquires-governments-first-025632383.html

In the price history of bitcoin, many major downtrends began on the same day that quantum computing news was published by the media.

I may have made as many as 4 or 5 different threads on this topic over more than 5 years.

For those who disagree, I ask that you take into consideration the price trend correlation between bitcoin and quantum computers being observed numerous times over the years. Its not an outlier nor an exception. I think by this point its fairly well documented even though no one seems to have heard about it.

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[TheNineClub]

It can't just be one thing. It's rather a multitude of reasons that provided the downtrend, not just inside or related to crypto, but also in a broader economic sense. The pandemic, war, social shifts, all of those things come into play and all contirbute.

[carlfebz2]

It can't just be one thing. It's rather a multitude of reasons that provided the downtrend, not just inside or related to crypto, but also in a broader economic sense. The pandemic, war, social shifts, all of those things come into play and all contirbute.

Seems like banksters and those institution are really happy on whats happening now. 
Bank of England Chief Takes Victory Lap as Crypto Crumbles
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/13/bank-of-england-chief-takes-victory-lap-as-crypto-crumbles/

There are lots of sentiments circling around about this recent drop as of this moment including on what OP stated
but overall this isnt something new and its better to mind on how to accumulate into these cheaper or bargain
price imho.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Disclaimer: I know absolutely nothing about quantum computing.

However, if it was really a threat to cryptocurrency I would think that the biggest of big crashes would have happened after the first announcement.  Unless there was something new in this second one that pointed toward bitcoin being at risk because of quantum computing, I just don't see it as anything more than a coincidence.

I'm still thinking the Celsius freeze had something to do with the crash we're seeing, even if the crash started first.  I'd also point out that it's not only the crypto markets that are down a lot.  The stock market in general took a big hit today, and precious metals were even down.  This could just be a huge selloff of all kinds of investment assets.

[Z-tight]

However, if it was really a threat to cryptocurrency I would think that the biggest of big crashes would have happened after the first announcement.  Unless there was something new in this second one that pointed toward bitcoin being at risk because of quantum computing, I just don't see it as anything more than a coincidence.

I am in agreement with this, probably OP could tell us how the news about quantum computers causes fud amongst bitcoin people that makes them panic and sell, causing a dump in the price, quantum computers is not in any direct competition with bitcoin and crypto, if quantum computers is to affect any phenomenon or thing it will have to be conventional or classical computers, and not bitcoin, because from my little knowledge about quantum computers, they can solve problems faster than classical computers, so possibly in years to come they might be designed in such a way to replace classical computers.

cbdc', government propaganda, fiat inflation that makes people sell, news about other crypto network, politics and economics etc, these are the things that in my opinion can possibly trigger a decline in bitcoin price, i doubt headlines about quantum computing can, like The Pharmacist said, this should just be a coincidence.

[Ozero]

Disclaimer: I know absolutely nothing about quantum computing.

However, if it was really a threat to cryptocurrency I would think that the biggest of big crashes would have happened after the first announcement.  Unless there was something new in this second one that pointed toward bitcoin being at risk because of quantum computing, I just don't see it as anything more than a coincidence.

I'm still thinking the Celsius freeze had something to do with the crash we're seeing, even if the crash started first.  I'd also point out that it's not only the crypto markets that are down a lot.  The stock market in general took a big hit today, and precious metals were even down.  This could just be a huge selloff of all kinds of investment assets.

I remember that after the first reports about quantum computers and their capabilities, opinions immediately appeared that quantum computers may not reach such powers at which they will be able to crack the security codes of cryptocurrencies. In addition, it was stated that if this happens, then such computers will not be owned by individuals, so that there is no possibility of misusing them. This could reassure many cryptocurrency holders. But some time passed and the power of quantum computers began to grow quite rapidly, and experts also predicted that quantum computers would become dangerous for cryptocurrencies in the next ten years. The article referenced by the OP does not in itself indicate the danger to cryptocurrencies from quantum computers and therefore is unlikely to be a reason for a sharp drop in prices in this market. I agree with the opinion that, most likely, there are several such reasons, and only in sum they give such a negative effect.

[NeuroticFish]

Quantum computer news headlines were published on may 9th, 2022 triggering a BTC decline.

So it took one month for the people realize and panic?

Investors know that quantum computing is expensive and if they start using it crack this or that, there may start much bigger problems than Bitcoin.
I don't think that investors would get panicked by quantum computer advancements yet. Not yet.
Also investors know to read the panicking news with quite a pinch of salt.

We're in the part of the 4-years cycle usually called crypto winter.
While I hoped it won't go as low (as percentage) as before, Bitcoin seems to insist that history can be repeating. Over and over again. And since we're "on thin ice", whenever NASDAQ is falling, Bitcoin price is falling too, not recovering (yet).

All in all there's crypto winter, there's uncertainty on financial (and stock) markets, there's the gloom of a nearing financial crisis and imho all of these matter more than the news about quantum computing.

[Hydrogen]

Here is an old thread I made detailing how quantum computing headlines caused bitcoin to crash on september 20th 2019 and october 22nd 2019.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5195523.msg52859241#msg52859241

There were also cases of it in 2020.

I think the correlation between quantum computer news and declines in BTC value will become an accepted industry standard eventually.

As trends go, this is one I have tracked for many years. Which apparently people have not noticed.

[Lucius]

I think the correlation between quantum computer news and declines in BTC value will become an accepted industry standard eventually.

I think it has nothing to do with each other, because since the existence of Bitcoin people have been arguing that quantum computers are a threat to Bitcoin, but it is also known that the development of such computers will take decades and that those that exist today are not strong enough to be a threat to Bitcoin.

The average investor doesn't even understand what Bitcoin is, let alone link it to some quantum computer news.

Webber’s team calculated that breaking bitcoin’s encryption in a 10-minute window would require a quantum computer with 1.9 billion qubits, while cracking it in an hour would require a machine with 317 million qubits. Even allowing for a whole day, this figure only drops to 13 million qubits. This is reassuring news for bitcoin owners because current machines have only a tiny fraction of this – IBM’s record-breaking superconducting quantum computer has only 127 qubits, so devices would need to become a million times larger to threaten the cryptocurrency, something Webber says is unlikely to happen for a decade.

[davis196]

This seems like a coincidence to me. The current price crash is caused by the extreme pessimism on the crypto markets combined with the crypto bears being greedy and wanting to sell at 30K and buy the dip at 20K. The crypto bears are exploiting the fears to the maximum.
There's "blood on the streets" right now, which is the right time to buy, according to Warren Buffet(if I remember his saying correctly).
The crypto winter was pretty much expected and still many people got surprised, when another price drop happened.
Quantum computers will become a "threat" for Bitcoin after 10 years maybe, but the blockchain will adapt and evolve in this time frame.

[Lucius]

There's "blood on the streets" right now, which is the right time to buy, according to Warren Buffet(if I remember his saying correctly).

It is not a saying invented by the WB, but is associated with one of the members of the Rothschild family from the 19th century. This is not something that every person cannot conclude if they thinks a little better, but the problem is in the application of this tactic. While the average person has a hard time living from paycheck to paycheck, the rich who have billions to invest in in the long run always profit - so they are even richer after each new crisis.

The crypto winter was pretty much expected and still many people got surprised, when another price drop happened.

I don't think people are as surprised as they are disappointed because ATH wasn't at least $100k, which was an exit point for many, and now they will have to wait at least another 2-3 years. At least they can sleep better if they realize that the quantum computers will not be able to steal their Bitcoins for at least some time.

[avikz]

Lol! I don't think that crypto investors are so immature that the market will crash on the news of a quantum computer that has capacity of few qbits. It can't be! This is not the first time quantum computer made headlines in various crypto magazines.

We are currently going through a crypto winter cycle similar to what we have seen back in 2017 - 18 immediately after the ATH. It may go down further. But once the downtrend is over, the next ATH will be probably not less than 100k.

[Mauser]

Interesting article on quantum computers, but why is this so negative for crypto currencies? I always thought that advancements in the computer technology would boost cryptos because it makes the difficult computations more quickly and will require less energy, which should reduce gas fees long term. Having more advanced computers that use quantum computing is just a matter of time. To me the whole big drop of more than 25% in less than 2 weeks seems insane. Sure there are some negative news out there, but we were at 60k USD last year. And with the big swings we are seeing daily I wonder who are all the people selling now? It can't be just some ordinary investors who read the news about quantum computing and decided to sell. For every seller there is also a buyer who gets his hands on very cheap bitcoins right now.

[fiulpro]

To be honest, the Quantum Computers and their Hype was over years before, people already though about it, tried to sought it out and also placed their bets on bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies, currently what we are seeing is just an extension of that and it does not need to be an influence on the whole system for sure. Advancements in computing technology does not mean that it would be beneficial or detrimental since one might come up with a solution to integrate the Quantum Computers with Mining and viola! It would get much easier with the passing time, also right now Feds, covid, investment rates , new things like the monkey pox etc might be all a contributing factor.

[stompix]

Quantum computer news headlines were published on may 9th, 2022 triggering a BTC decline.
~
Our latest decline began on june 9th, 2022.

Sorry but the dates don't match, Bitcoin touched 40k on the 5th of May, but was already down to 24 on the 8th, before the mentioned article, for the June event, the crash started only slowly on the 12th.
For the first date, we have the terra fiasco which started on the 7th, for the second we have the Celsius and the market crash, both times far better than some random news about an inexistent computer.

Short story, nobody cares about a quantum computer.
The average Joe doesn't have a clue how bitcoin works, some don't know what a private key is and you expect them to panic because of an article that states we only have 0.01% of the computer needed to crack Bitcoin?

[naira]

For those who disagree, I ask that you take into consideration the price trend correlation between bitcoin and quantum computers being observed numerous times over the years. Its not an outlier nor an exception. I think by this point its fairly well documented even though no one seems to have heard about it.

That's the advantage you have about knowledge of Quantum computer programs that we don't really understand. Moreover, I am of course still very minimal about it. So you can correlate it with the current price drop.

Moreover, on the other hand, it is mostly related to US inflation data which reached 8.6% above market expectations of only 8.3%. Excessive inflation clearly brought the US economic slowdown, so that it entered into the so-called recession. We have seen 2 quarters of economic growth in the US minus back to back. Our local stocks also fell because of the impact felt by the US, this seems to be a domino effect for other countries as well.

[Despairo]

Interesting article on quantum computers, but why is this so negative for crypto currencies?

Many articles said quantum computing might find someone seeds with a high end computing powers to perform brute force. But honestly it's not since it's very secure and you need to have so many numbers to combine BIP39 words to get a specific wallet that you want to stole. Even your quantum computers alive for 24/7 to brute force someone wallet, I doubt you can find it after 100 years. Not to mention, humans (we) mostly didn't living for so long. In the end, it's almost impossible for quantum computing to hack/ find vulnerability of Bitcoin.

[lionheart78]

The quantum computing issue had been in Bitcoin for a long time.  I don't think that this quantum computing issue has something to do with the current BTC price decline.  The market had been in a Bear trend so price crashes are imminent. If ever there is something that greatly affects the nosedive of Bitcoin price, I think it would be the Terra and Celcius issue.

The quantum computing threat to Bitcoin articles had been published probably much earlier than 2017[1]. And it was occasionally brought up every time they wanted to question the security of Bitcoin or if there are some improvements or development on that technology and wanted to FUD Bitcoin in terms of security aspect.  But every time, the claim was always been refuted because the Bitcoin layers of security are too complex for the current quantum technology to decipher.


[1] Quantum Computers Pose Imminent Threat to Bitcoin Security  date published November 8, 2017

[el kaka22]

I am not saying ongoing bear market wasn't because of that news, it could be because of that, however I know plenty of people who sold not because of that at all, and didn't even know this happened. There could be a bit of correlation but would be naive to think that just because there was headlines about one thing, it must be 100% because of that. Between whales selling, and people panicking and many other things, I am guessing that there were at least a dozen reasons for it to go down, and this could be one of them.

Of course, this doesn't suddenly remove quantum out of the pool of reasons neither, but to say that it started because of this would be a bit too much emphasis on quantum computing along with the post consequences of pandemic which is hyper inflation.

[DrBeer]

I will now ask a question, please do not be offended, I am in a good way and with good intentions
Can you tell me what quantum computing is? Let me not waste your time and readers, but very simply explain why these two events cannot have a reasoned and logical connection! And so, very briefly the difference between ordinary calculations and quantum ones.
Now in the world there are essentially 3 main types of computing systems:
- analog (discard, not suitable),
- digital, these are our computers, cryptography in the field of blockchain and the like
- and of course these very quantum ones!
I won’t talk about analog ones - if you are interested, you can find a lot of information yourself.
But what is the difference between digital and quantum. In digital "computer" is a kind of processor that can execute a set of instructions and manipulate memory cells. Modern computers do this very quickly, even at home. And there are even supercomputers with wild petaflops performance! BUT. Even in multi-core systems, the calculations in each core go sequentially, and to calculate, for example, a new function value, they have to go through the entire cycle of the algorithm that describes how to count again.
But quantum computing is different. There lies a completely different physical principle of calculations, I would say - there is a completely different arithmetic. I recommend reading specialized articles, it's really interesting, but it takes a long time and it's not immediately clear So, what is the advantage of quantum computing. For what I will write further - now quantologists would kick me with their feet for such an explanation, but it is the simplest and at the same time not entirely accurate, but it explains the essence well
So, the key advantage is that in a very short period of time, such a system immediately gives out ALL ANSWER OPTIONS. You will say - well, that's it, the cryptography is hacked, they will easily find all the necessary keys, and everyone will be stolen ... It seems that everything converges, it seems like a nightmare ... But no
The first reason is the amount of computation, limited by the number of qubits. And if it is easy to make a million-core ordinary computer, then a 512-qubit computer is still impossible to implement. You will laugh, but the first quantum computer was created in 1981 (1 qubit, if I'm not mistaken), and today, the largest ... as much as 66 qubits! (Zuchongzhi). And yes - it calculates specific tasks in minutes, while an ordinary supercomputer takes decades. But these are specialized calculations, but what about ordinary ones? But here everything is difficult. Very difficult ! By the way, I also recommend reading specialized articles about quantum algorithms - I promise a boiling brain
 Well, now the easiest part. Suppose that the owners of a 66 qubit superprocessor have written an algorithm for calculating private bitcoin keys. And received in a couple of weeks... or months.. or... (it doesn't matter, believe me), ALL PRIVATE KEYS! What do they have to do next?
0. Take the first private key. Use it to calculate the wallet address (X).
1. Send a request to the bitcoin network, show me the balance for the wallet address calculated in step 0
2. Get an answer.
3. If the amount is greater than 0, then send a request to the bitcoin network: from wallet X (with a private key) to address Y.
4. Repeat it all .... And here we turn to the theory of Bitcoin: Bitcoin private key (in WIF format): it is 51 base58 characters, starts with "5". Those. essentially 50 characters of 10 numbers and 28 characters. Or a little easier - in HEX format it will be 64 characters from the range [0-9A-F], and this is 16 characters. And now let's find out how many iterations there will be? And the options will be... 2^256 or 115,792,089,237,316,195,423,570,985,008,687,907,853,269,984,665,640,564,039,457,584,007,913,129,639,936
This is how many times it will be necessary to repeat the algorithm, but already on real digital technology, in order to steal bitcoins...
I will not even ask - what kind of storage system is needed to store so many keys.
In a word - everyone can sleep peacefully, bitcoins are still under reliable protection!