Several reasons explaining the Crypto Price Crash (without BS)

[Haunebu]

Biggest reason for financial markets(Stock, Crypto etc) crashing like crazy these days is inflation in USA basically which keeps rising over time which could lead to another recession soon.

This single reason had the biggest impact while other reasons like LUNA, UST, Crypto Exchanges, Celsius etc had a minor impact in comparison.

These bear markets won't last forever though just like bull markets which is why this is a great time to purchase popular cryptocurrencies like BTC, ETH etc in my opinion. However, invest only what you are willing to lose people.

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[Kakmakr]

Yes, all the things you have mentioned has an impact on the current price drop, but we all know that Bitcoin goes through "Boom" and "Bust" cycles ...just like any other commodity.    People should just stop concentrating on finding reasons for a price crash and just look at Bitcoin as a long-term (hodl) investment strategy. (If you want to use it as an investment option)

I am actually more excited when there is a price crash, because I see that as an opportunity to buy more coins at a cheaper price. (I hoard cash for opportunities like this) 

[GreatArkansas]

(....)
All in all - there is no trust in the system, and when there is no trust - there would be a crash in the price, "because markets are ruled right now by fear" (Alessio Rastani on the BBC, when the Eurozone was in troubles).

We should also consider other markets on this to identify some reason why the cryptocurrency market is crashing. As you can see that stock markets are also crashing, so it could be also a reason because, for some time, the cryptocurrency market and the stock market are somehow correlated, that's why I am very calm.
What OP mentioned is only for the crypto market probably reasons which are good also and got a point, especially an issue on UST Terra Luna and stable coins de-pegging issue.
I can also consider the high inflation rate which we currently experiencing in most of the countries in the world, all are affected.

[Bitstar_coin]

i personally have a hoard from the old days(2012-14 era). so my hoard is in profit so i dont care about their value as the price even today is way way way above their acquisition costs. so i am not in panic mode nor care to sell.. so i dont care and am ignoring the value of that hoard.

my personal presumptions were that the value window of 2021-22 of ~$25k-$70k meant the price last month of ~$29k was very good value.

however seeing the 2021-2022 discounts for the era. its good value to buy a bit more. i dont need it. but i happily spent $6k of fiat(unused/unneeded disposable fiat income i wont need/miss for a while) to buy more at the $29k/btc value. and will be doing it again this week at the even better value to buy. (it helps average down my 2021-22 era stash)

i dont recommend anyone stake their life savings or house at any 'bet' or presumption others state. but if you do have disposable income you wont miss. you might aswell give it a try.

by disposable income i mean things you would normally waste income on.. like drive-thru's and fast food that just become a toilet flush the next day.
things you spend that you will never see value returned on again.
like buying some in-game credit for a feature that has a time expiry where you dont benefit from that spend after the time expires.

EG if you are thinking of buying a brand new car. realise the very day after buying it. it is a second hand car and loses a few $xk of value instantly.. meaning if you bought a second hand car of same year/model. the value would be the same on day 2 as a new car on day 2. so save yourself a bit of disposable income, buy it second hand and invest the savings instead of losing it completely overnight (like a fast food becoming just a toilet flush after 1 days digestion)

think smart. dont just take a blind punt/bet using more then you can risk living without.
also if the price goes down more. you can just use next weeks/next months spare/available disposable income to get even more. rather then draining yourself in one shot meaning you cant take future opportunities.
never be in a situation when seeing a price go down as a complete loss of life savings.
think of it as just a delay in ROI of disposable income thats not life changing risk. and think of the low as a opportunity to gain more cheaply before the next rise

I think you are the most detailed poster in this forum, am saying this base on every other post of yours I have come across.
That being said, you are absolutely right, why not invest that disposable income in something that will bring great value in years to come than spend it on things that will lose value the next day or so.
Despite having the ability to form our opinion as humans, we can also get ideas from others' opinions too.
Investment is all about being smart and setting some boundaries so you don't end up losing it all because of being overwhelmed. You have really made a valid point.

[Get-Paid.com]

Investment is all about being smart and setting some boundaries so you don't end up losing it all because of being overwhelmed. You have really made a valid point.

That's definitely a valid point - people should invest only what they can afford to lose, including Bitcoin.
No one can see the future, but the markets are definitely ruled right now by fear.

[tygeade]

I think you are the most detailed poster in this forum, am saying this base on every other post of yours I have come across.
That being said, you are absolutely right, why not invest that disposable income in something that will bring great value in years to come than spend it on things that will lose value the next day or so.
Despite having the ability to form our opinion as humans, we can also get ideas from others' opinions too.
Investment is all about being smart and setting some boundaries so you don't end up losing it all because of being overwhelmed. You have really made a valid point.

I am not entirely sure if "disposable" income is as disposable as you may think. In this day and age, we are living in a world where crypto is making things a bit more volatile than it has to be. Look at all the other things people can do with their money, and realize that it is not as great as you may imagine.

For example, if you bought 100 shirts and sold it on a concert, you would have made a lot more money right? Business is still the king, you are not going to start off with 100 bucks or 10k bucks whatever and become a billionaire via crypto, but business ideas makes that possible. Crypto is and will always be great for long term investment option, but the volatility makes it questionable.

[franky1]

For example, if you bought 100 shirts and sold it on a concert, you would have made a lot more money right? Business is still the king, you are not going to start off with 100 bucks or 10k bucks whatever and become a billionaire via crypto, but business ideas makes that possible. Crypto is and will always be great for long term investment option, but the volatility makes it questionable.

you are quite correct. many businesses work on the 3x plan

if a wholesale/manufactured shirt cost $2, and wages+other costs is $2 then the sale of shirt is atleast $6 to give a $2 profit. where the sale is 3x the cost. as a 'reasonable' value shirt.

yes if you have a brand or a popular shirt you can sell for more. but you can also end up with a warehouse is full of shirts that just never sell too..

yes you can make alot of money with the right product. but you can also lose alot of money with a bad product.

its the same case with all things.
there is no promises in crypto or business of guaranteed billionaire status.
for every successful business that has made a CEO a bilionaire, there is a million businesses that wont reach billion status and the same again for businesses that have failed entirely

..
disposable income is not to throw $10k at something. as yes you can buy alot of other promising things with that. true disposable income is the funds that you waste. funds which you dont see that value exist beyond the following week

EG its not about risking your tenancy by putting your rent money to bitcoin or a business. because although when you move home in future you get nothing back from the rent you paid. however that rent that week-month secures shelter for you. so its not disposable

but fast food, luxury items that dont have any function of helping you survive/live/be secure for weeks/months. where by its just something that is lost and not returnable in a few days/week, is disposable

disposable income is the stuff that wont make any ROI or profit from. its the waste money. the stuff you spend on stabucks coffee.. the stuff you spend on netflix subscription. having your hair dyed or having a haircut. or that bacon baguette for breakfast, the chicken wrap for lunch and the pizza for evening meal.

add up all them little wasted portions of money you dont miss and put that money you dont miss into something that can make returns.
maybe yes buy some shirts.. if you have a shirt design that is popular to have demand. and if you have the right shirt sizes to fit the potential customer without having to stockpile 100 shirts just for the hope of catering to 20 people, (5 different sizes are the norm selection people need to cater to (s,m,l,xl,xxl))

its then not about just buy once, hold for 50 years and hope to be a billionaire. its to increase the returns by 2x-3x and then repeat.

no one ever said buy 100 shirts, hold them for 30 years and hope to get a billion $$.. thats not how to become a billionaire from the shirt industry

its to turn $100 into $200 by selling $100 of shirts for $300 netting you $200 after other costs
its to turn $200 into $400 by selling $200 of shirts for $600 netting you $400 after other costs
repeat

same goes for crypto
buy in 2012 16 coins for $6each($100).. sell 16 coins in 2013 at $1000 each.. ($16k)
buy in 2014 32 coins at $500each($16k)... sell 32 coins in 2017 at $10k each($320k),
buy in 2018 64 coins at $5keach($320k)... sell 64 coins in 2020 at $40k each($2.56m)
buy in 2022 128 coins at $20k each($2.56m).. sell 128coins in 202X at....

[Gyfts]

You're underestimating the global economy. Crypto sphere took a hit with the Luna/UST collapse but that still does not explain the Bitcoin drop. Global economy was fragile following the COVID lockdowns and the expectation was for a faster and sharper recovery. High inflation meat federal reserve had to lower rates causing low economic growth.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-15/goldman-sachs-cuts-us-growth-forecasts-for-2022-and-2023

All the economic institutions are cutting their projections for GDP of the U.S. It makes sense that people are liquidating assets -- they don't know where to put their money, so they're electing for tangible assets (metals, real estate).

Luna/UST only represent a small portion of the crypto market. It's collapse doesn't even come close to the entire story with crypto.

[xSkylarx]

~snip

Consider also that there is a market cycle. Last year bitcoin and some altcoins created a new ATH so it should be normal for the market to have a correction. Cryptos can't just always pump the way we want it, traders that bought early will always take profit at some point so we should expect a dump after pumps. The increase in commodity prices because of Ukraine and Russia conflict also affects the market because some people are forced to liquidate their assets in crypto.

[Get-Paid.com]

Consider also that there is a market cycle.

The interest rates haven't been raised since 2007-2008, this is not a normal cycle but a change of events. Many people seem to fail to understand this basic concept whilst in the meantime the "smart money" moves away from Crypto and Bitcoin and goes to gain interest rates without all the complexities involved (for us the stock market is complex but for them - hedge funds, banks etc. it's the other way around).

[Argoo]

This is not the first of the crash and price plummet, it has happened in 2014 and 2018, so this time it should not be what is special, but people will all the time link false information to false information. I remember the time of covid-19 too, bitcoin falled from $10000 to 3800 in March 2020, they said it was covid-19 that caused it, they have forgotten that bitcoin also crashed to $3800 in 2019. After the crash in 2020, still during covid-19, bitcoin increased back. The crash now is not because of luna or whatever they said it is, it is because we are in bear market which may last until next year.

The above reasons for the current general decline in this market, as presented by the OP, seem unconvincing to me. They are too small to cause a general fall. Looking through this post, I noticed the previous periods of falls in 2014 and 2018 indicated. If we add here the current fall, that is, 2022, then we get a certain pattern of falls every four years. If we add here the four-year cycle of bitcoin associated with its halving, then it turns out that the crypto-winter constantly follows a large price rise in the market after the halving. Therefore, we are now just in a period of market decline. These falls have passed, and this one will pass.

[Ahli38]

This decline occurred or started when the Fed tightened monetary policy in which the Fed tried to fight uncontrolled inflation, so that this resulted in investors staying away from speculative assets in global markets.

So somehow the root of the problem is inflation.
let's describe a little about this inflation.

Inflation is a process of increasing prices in general and continuously, an increase in the price of one or two goods cannot be called inflation unless the increase extends to other goods.wikipedia.

the impact of inflation such as decreased export capacity, difficulty in predicting basic prices, reduced income, and decreased public interest in saving. well these factors or impacts are also creeping into the investment world such as the fall in bitcoin prices in particular. and followed by other altcoins. because when prices rise, while income still does not increase, it is certain that the use of money will be more than usual so it is difficult to set aside money for saving or investing. Even in such a severe level that many people lose their jobs as a source of income. so that even people who lose their jobs will withdraw their investments and savings to be used to meet their daily needs.

plus there are parties who have been anti-bitcoin or crypto in general from the start. then seeing this situation they will use it as best as possible to make news that corners bitcoin or crypto in general. and the effect is like dominoes. create panic. and this is what is happening as of now.
and it should also be noted that the decline is not only in crypto but in almost all other stock investment sectors.

[davis196]

Most of the crypto businesses(like Celsius) were built on unsecure foundations. The situation on the global financial markets changed and those crypto companies are going south. Some libertarians say that the market always finds a way to kick out the companies that aren't flexible, competitive and stable enough to survive on harsh conditions.
BTC and the big altcoins crashed because of the overall panic caused by centralized crypto services having problems with keeping their promises and not having enough coins to payback their investors. If we add the global situation, we get the perfect FUD storm.
The sad part is that Bitcoin didn't work as a safe heaven and a protection against inflation. I guess that the Bitcoin cycle (if there is a cycle) cannot be interrupted by the global macroeconomic cycle.

[pooya87]

1) The collapse of Luna and UST is one reason
2) During the collapse Tether (USDT) hit $0.95 - it could happen again and this time go south
3) Bank run on Celsius - the model of lending/high interest doesn't work well if central banks around the world raise interest rates and make it unattractive to look for such products as a result
4) BlockFi and Crypto.com cutting off 20% of its work force:
https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/13/23166028/blockfi-crypto-com-layoffs-cryptocurrency-defi-slump-halts
5) Binance US sued over promotion of Luna and UST:
https://decrypt.co/102813/binance-us-sued-over-promoting-selling-ust-and-luna
6) Binance in general is under lots of scrutiny, the SEC is investigating its currency - BNB, the IRS earlier launched a probe against them:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-06/us-probes-binance-over-token-that-is-now-world-s-fifth-largest

1) I disagree. It did affect the market but the effects weren't nearly as big as the crash itself. Not to mention that the recent crash to $18k happened long after the LUNA scam
2) I disagree with this also since it has happened before and people don't really react to these things that badly specially since it was a small drop not the eventual demise of Tether
3) This may have contributed to the crash more than the rest but I still don't consider it as a big cause
4) Not effective at all. In fact these are the result of the crash not the cause of it
5) Binance is an altcoin exchange first and a bitcoin exchange second. It's hack (which was a much bigger event) didn't cause a major crash, possibility of some legal shenanigan is not going to cause a crash!
6) Not new.

All in all, a big crash can come from either Binance or Tether's direction (or maybe USDC) - if the US govt would want to stop the use of USDT/USDC tokens - they can do it at any given moment!

The only thing that could cause a bigger panic sell in bitcoin is if Tether disappears and causes mass panic otherwise the rest including Binance is not a major deal.

• NFT
• The NFT market is pretty bust - it was a complete bubble that got burst (look @ ApeCoin for that matter - $3.78 seems quite "expensive" despite its peak at $25 a few months ago)

Not bitcoiner has ever given enough shit about tokens to want to start selling their bitcoins because NFTs went belly up.

My analysis is that the reason is a single one with two steps.
First people were convinced that bitcoin price should follow other markets (they succeeded to some extend in 2020).
Then the US (and its colonies') economy started falling apart and those who were convinced in step one started panic selling in accordance with the US economy crash.
[/list]

[sklopan]

I'm wondering how many people are now freaking out and withdrawing money from cryptocurrency? Given the current state of the market, I think that some of these people will still be.

[so98nn]

anyway in (using the cycle dates) 3 years at the next presumed ATH, people will be wishing they bought at ~$20k in 2022

How can you be so sure about it?

That seems to be based on the 4-year winter cycle or halving cycle. We are already nearing the same cycle closing and which means heavy drop in price of the bitcoin because most of big whale miners around the world will be profiting from the same. If they sell at the current price then definitely it's gonna be worst for them, idk they may loose profitability in the process.

However, I believe that this is just one of the reason for the same but may not be firm one.

There is impossible judgment for the current situation of bitcoin.

[Get-Paid.com]

I'm wondering how many people are now freaking out and withdrawing money from cryptocurrency? Given the current state of the market, I think that some of these people will still be.

Some of them sold their Bitcoin around $40k and preferred to use fiat currency instead of keeping reserves in Bitcoin. Luckily it helps us fund our faucets with more $.

CoinPot for instance collapsed because they never hedged against the rise of value in Crypto (we do now buy a bit but never ever believe in it for the long term).

[franky1]

That seems to be based on the 4-year winter cycle or halving cycle. We are already nearing the same cycle closing and which means heavy drop in price of the bitcoin because most of big whale miners around the world will be profiting from the same. If they sell at the current price then definitely it's gonna be worst for them, idk they may loose profitability in the process.

However, I believe that this is just one of the reason for the same but may not be firm one.

There is impossible judgment for the current situation of bitcoin.

i personally have hoards from 2012(and other years) prices so im classed as a old whale (but im not selling any time soon, even though i can sell now and profit still.. but dont worry i have no desire to sell any time soon. im happy. and i wont sell at any less. i am not one of those panic sellers)

all the other old whales and miners with coins acquired below $15k value that are selling now. are giving to buyers who are setting their value at the prices they bought at above $17k. giving a new support with higher percentage of holders that have a new acquisition value(buying price) above $17k.

meaning there are less people still with coins able to profitably sell for under $17k than last month thus less people willing to sell below $17k than last month

so my opinion is let them sell. let there be less people able to sell for less. because the long term result is that it builds up support for the 'bottom' to go up.

in short. all the people that have sold after 2018's bottom. have helped to support that by there now being more people with value way above 2018's bottom that will refuse to sell below that bottom

in short. all the people that have sold after 2019's bottom. have helped to support that by there now being more people with value way above 2019's bottom that will refuse to sell below that bottom

the 2020-2022 era is a funny era. although there are people that bought at $20k-$70k. there were also some miners that were able to mine CHEAP coins due to the hashrate competition impact of the 'chinese ban'
but as soon as they sell for profit. the new holders of them coins will be holding coins at a higher price than that era's cheap coin value

[Hispo]

I'm wondering how many people are now freaking out and withdrawing money from cryptocurrency? Given the current state of the market, I think that some of these people will still be.

Mostly newbies from the bullish cycle of 2020-2021, the veterans from 2018 crash would know better.
The important thing here is risk management, know ones objectives and control the feelings.

Yesterday it was a massive freak out when the price touched 17K, while many were buying, others were panic selling, it is still early to say we have reached a botton,though.

[PrimeNumber7]

This is not the first of the crash and price plummet, it has happened in 2014 and 2018, so this time it should not be what is special, but people will all the time link false information to false information. I remember the time of cobkd too, bitcoinmfalled from $10500 to 3800, they said it was covkd that caused it, thy have forgotten that bitcoin.also crashed to $3800 in 2019. After the crash in 2020, still during covid-19 botcoin increased back. The crash now is not because of Luna in my opinion, it is because we are in bear market which may last until next year which should be mildly bullish.

There was no raise of interest rates since 2007-2008, i.e. it's 14+ years now.
This is the main element that is changing everything.

Not at all. US interest rates have been low for certain things for 14+ years. Other parts of the world have not. BTC is worldwide and does not stop at the border.
Rates have been going up and down for a while on investments even in the US
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ebonds/res_e_bonds_eeratesandterms_eebondsissued051997_042005.htm

Most people can see that this is part of a boom / bust cycle AND can also see that there are a lot of similarities to the past ones.

-Dave

The US economy, including US interest rates influence the rest of the world.

Interest rates are not only rising, but are also projected to rise further in the future. Not only that but QE is being stopped/reversed. All of this is taking money out of the global financial system, and is discouraging people from taking risks with their money.