What do you think about this Golf Strategy? [Betting €5400 on the US Open]

[Get-Paid.com]

One more thing really amazes me is Callum Tarren is 3 under par (-3) and had a longer shot pre-event (900 to 1), yet he is 111 to 1 in the bookies (200 to 1 in the exchanges) yet Adam Hadwin who is one more than him (-4) but the leader, hits 30 to 1 in the exchange (26 to 1 in the bookies) and pre-event was over 150 to 1 in the bookies.

Psychologically because he's the leader then bookies make it look as if he has more chances (and honestly he had a few misses, could have easily made it -5 or more yesterday and so is Rory) - but still - it's either a trap or the market knows something different. The exchanges definitely don't justify 30 to 1 unless there's more to uncover here.

Kevin Na had similar odds yesterday, reaching 40 to 1 in the exchange, and then started missing shots - he's now 1000 to 1 in the exchange with no lay options).

The markets in golf can be extremely lethal, one hit or miss and the numbers can crunch really nicely.

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[Get-Paid.com]

Practically this is what I got from all this - €1.39 and lots of tension for 4 days 
 


Reason: Hedging for/against weaker players, and it doesn't seem to worth it.

If anything - the best thing to do is to bet €6 (min. stake) on each player with 200 - 1000 odds.

You get guys like Adam Hadwin reaching 30 to 1 so from 700 to 1 you go down to 30 to 1.

That means you risk €6 to win €4200 and then you have €4200 to "sell" the position at 30 to 1 (make €140 profit).

Golf is so unpredictable that guys with 200 to 1 can easily swing the odds. Even today Rory the favorite was 500 to 1 and then went down to 60 to 1.

Fitzpatrick was 29 to 1 in Bet365 before the event, so that just tells you how things are so unpredictable.

[Get-Paid.com]

One more thing to add - the link in the first post takes you to a new tournament now, this is because Orbit is using the very same link for other tournaments.

[Kakmakr]

I hate betting on Golf, because there are so many variables to take into consideration to determine the end result. On any given day, one of the low ranking players can have a excellent day or even two days and they shoot to the top. Players can have injuries (like Tiger Woods...and they can drop out from the tournament... giving low ranked players the opportunity to push up in the tournament)

The weather and the green and fairway conditions is crucial for the playing style of some of the players in the tournaments, so it is just too unpredictable. (Your strategy might have worked this time.... but it is very risky) 

I play Golf, so I know when I have a "On" or "Off" day...... and professional players also experience the same thing.

[leea-1334]

I totally agree with swogerino,,, almost risk free is as good as high risk when the results do not go your way.

I can compare this to rolling dice at 1% house edge for 1.01 profit (you still have 2/100 losing outcomes). Sounds perfect because it is in our minds virtually impossible to hit on one big roll but so many people lost before including me.

I think a riskier yet better bankroll approach is to go for the ones you think have outside chance to win like above 5x-20x.

Then as tournament progress, those below 5x who do not perform if they dip, you also bet on them.

[Get-Paid.com]

I think a riskier yet better bankroll approach is to go for the ones you think have outside chance to win like above 5x-20x.

Then as tournament progress, those below 5x who do not perform if they dip, you also bet on them.

Yes, you're right - you back the outsiders with $6 each, then if their chances improve you "sell" (lay) it in the exchange and make profit from it - but it requires you to be hands on on the odds, and watch them go up and down, and likewise you never know when you're reaching the bottom - but it's definitely a nice strategy to try.

[leea-1334]

I think a riskier yet better bankroll approach is to go for the ones you think have outside chance to win like above 5x-20x.

Then as tournament progress, those below 5x who do not perform if they dip, you also bet on them.

Yes, you're right - you back the outsiders with $6 each, then if their chances improve you "sell" (lay) it in the exchange and make profit from it - but it requires you to be hands on on the odds, and watch them go up and down, and likewise you never know when you're reaching the bottom - but it's definitely a nice strategy to try.

That is right! Back outsiders work the same in football, and even during live matches you can for example hedge the bets IF they score first by taking bets on the favorite then (which the odds will rise if they go behind),,, but I guess in gold it can be even easier to bet on odds as you can check back daily on tournaments right?

I believe there are now some back/lay markets that also allow limit orders but maybe not for crypto. That would be so cool.

[Get-Paid.com]

but I guess in gold it can be even easier to bet on odds as you can check back daily on tournaments right?

Yes, each player has a certain time when he plays the 18 holes, there's a proper schedule so it's all very organized.
A player can go "red hot" (i.e. score so many holes under par) and then the price changes accordingly.

You can also lay the favorite, in this case Rory McIlroy was the one to lay or Jon Rahm, it's a bit risky but they both didn't perform well.

[leea-1334]

but I guess in gold it can be even easier to bet on odds as you can check back daily on tournaments right?

Yes, each player has a certain time when he plays the 18 holes, there's a proper schedule so it's all very organized.
A player can go "red hot" (i.e. score so many holes under par) and then the price changes accordingly.

You can also lay the favorite, in this case Rory McIlroy was the one to lay or Jon Rahm, it's a bit risky but they both didn't perform well.

I just realized I wrote gold instead of golf but anyway,,, understood

I do not really follow golf so it is hard for me to say anything other than Tiger Woods who of course,,, is not the same man who ripped up everything in his path but from what I know of the news a new name or someone unexpected usually has good chances at top finish, plus there is always a weird hole-in-one to mess up bookies.

Probably best to just avoid favorites in this sport I would say. Anyway, hope to see OP updated with results if this 'strategy' holds  

[Get-Paid.com]

Anyway, hope to see OP updated with results if this 'strategy' holds  

The OP has already updated the thread with the results:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5402568.msg60399991#msg60399991

 

[leea-1334]

The OP has already updated the thread with the results:

I meant the original post sorry,,, not original poster (like directly edit the first post or add a link to the result in the first post so people see immediately result of it all.

I guess you need to try this strategy more times to get a bigger dataset to know if you can validate your theory or not, seriously even if you got a profit for this, it would not have been enough to say it worked.

Consolation merit for you

[Get-Paid.com]

I guess you need to try this strategy more times to get a bigger dataset to know if you can validate your theory or not

Yes, indeed, if anyone wants to try it, bet around €6 on 50 longshot players and see how far it would go - he's more than welcome, it's a risk of €300 but then if you get 1 or 2 players reaching 20 or less then you already cover the €300 risk (if you get 5-6 players then you can hit €1800) - but it's risky, and you might want to close the position at 50 to 1 or so.

It's interesting for sure, but requires discipline, luck and and to be hands on on it.

[leea-1334]

I guess you need to try this strategy more times to get a bigger dataset to know if you can validate your theory or not

Yes, indeed, if anyone wants to try it, bet around €6 on 50 longshot players and see how far it would go - he's more than welcome, it's a risk of €300 but then if you get 1 or 2 players reaching 20 or less then you already cover the €300 risk (if you get 5-6 players then you can hit €1800) - but it's risky, and you might want to close the position at 50 to 1 or so.

It's interesting for sure, but requires discipline, luck and and to be hands on on it.

I suppose the same can be said for some American sports (basketball/football/baseball) as I seldom see the preseason favorites ending up winning and then you see odds change so drastically from 300x to 20x just over the course of quarter season. I think baseball especially.

I definitely thought about this style (to keep betting on longshots and adjust betting as others become longshorts) but the discipline, time,,, and willingness to keep doing it even after losses on first attempts. I would merit that type of thread a lot!

The data is needed for sure before we can conclude efficacy.