WHAT EVENT DO YOU THINK WILL USHER BTC INTO THE NEXT BULLRUN?

[Wenbing]

There are many prediction models that predict the price of bitcoin. One of the famous models is the Plan B stock-to-flow model. It is predicted that BTC would reach $100k before the end of the year.

Here is what I want to know the view of the community about.

1. Do you think such prediction models are realistic?

2. What major event do you think will usher BTC and the entire industry into the next bullrun?

3. Do you think Microstragy purchasing large units of btc will influence the price?

Some are of the opinion that sovereign funds and institutions will buy at discount. Well, what do you think?

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1. Do you think such prediction models are realistic?

2. What major event do you think will usher BTC and the entire industry into the next bullrun?

3. Do you think Microstragy purchasing large units of btc will influence the price?

• Yes, price prediction can be built on realistic assessment. This of course does not mean the price would reflect the expectations of any model, but it's possible to build your model on sound technical and fundamental analysis.
The idea of having a model to mirror the price at every stage is impossible, but you can have something similar at different points.

• Who knows? The only certain future event in relation to Bitcoin is the halving, besides that no one can predict what would happen.

• Not really. Big institutions purchasing Bitcoin is a positive and can influence trader sentiment, but it's already so popular that no singular purchase should have a big impact on the price.

[BIT-BENDER]

How many times has such predictions failed? A lot of times is the answer, for few years back many speculations has come out of bitcoin reaching $100,000 that same year but this never came through, I have always stood with not believing in speculations and predictions, honestly it doesn’t help the situation rather it can cause panic in form of making sales that wasn’t thought out properly or even buying the wrong coin.

[Rruchi man]

2. What major event do you think will usher BTC and the entire industry into the next bullrun?

Adoption & Recommendation can work the magic. What is basically affecting the price at the moment is that there is massive panic and a reduced confidence from investors in bitcoin. The price has stayed too low for too long for some, to secure their money many are deciding to sell off more bitcoins with inflation increasing and recession looming. Binance and Celsius fueled peoples panic the more when they recently but temporarily stopped the withdrawal of bitcoin.

If any major country/company can at this point Adopt bitcoin or perhaps a country, an individual who is idolized give some sort of recommendation about bitcoin, that can offer and boost the confidence of investors who are considering selling off not to, and investors who have left or reduced their portfolio to return and increase their bitcoin holding. A series of either adoption or recommendation will get bitcoin pumping again.

[Welsh]

We don't necessarily need an event to start the next bull run, and we don't really need a major event to keep the price up in the long term. All we need is time, and a steady pace of adoption. I'm talking about both user adoption, as well as merchants picking up Bitcoin, and accepting payments.

As long as we continue how we're going right now, there shouldn't be too many problems going forward. There's no major events that I see coming up other than the halving, if you call that major, as it's predetermined, and I don't know if I would call it major.

[hatshepsut93]

Halvening. Bitcoin always rallied after it, there's no reasons to think it won't rally again as a reaction to halvening 2024. Would Microstrategy buying Bitcoin move the price? Of course it would, because buying anything always pushes the price up, but if you think that lots of investors would take it as a bullish signal - that's unlikely. No one really cares if a permabull buys more, it got old rather quickly. If Bill Gates announced that he's a bitcoiner tomorrow, that would cause a rally, but he won't.

News of some more dirt-poor countries adopting Bitcoin as legal tender might cause a price spike, but it won't be enough to start a rally. Same for some institutional adoption.

[franky1]

possible triggers:
1. institutional financial services getting ETF approval
    when the first ETF gets approved. that service would need to buy up a large allotment of coin to lock in as collateral... other services would just copy and paste the template that got approved to also get approved, causing a snowball effect of lots of services offering ETF and lots of services buying the collateral required to secure peoples retirement funds against.
next would be all the pension fund bankers buying up the shares of the services, which would then mean more collateral is needed to then offer more shares.

2. hashrate competition increases dramatically
    if asic farms can break even or profit, this may change if more competition is added. less coin per day for one asic farm means their cost per day vs the amount of coin makes their cost per coin higher price. thus wont sell as cheap. the more competition the higher the cost. the higher the cost the less willing to sell for less.

3. the next halving
much like point.2,.. getting half as much coin for the same work raises the overall cost per coin by 2x.

4. a functional subnet,sidechain, bridged network
one that actually works and is easy to use yet as secure as a blockchain. whereby there is no bug or flaw that can be exploited... where if one (in future) becomes a popular side-net to offramp users to, for the times people want to do more regular faster payments. which could then get merchants to adopt it and grow..
so far idiots are controlling current subnets/altnets/sidechains that bridge to bitcoin.. and they dont care much for making something that actually works long term, for the masses without flaws. they just want to quickly coax/grab other idiots to then exploit them out of their coins. in a short term scheme that leaves people at losses in the long term

[PrivacyG]

The most accurate answer is, time passing.  I stopped following predictions simply due to them never being anything other than fun.

I have followed the S2F model for a while and I think it is failing as of now if we look at it?  Bitcoin was theoretically supposed to be in a bull run right now, was it not?

Microstrategy purchasing Bitcoin might not trigger a bull run simply due to them purchasing Bitcoin slowly and most likely Over The Counter before publicly announcing it.  Big mistake to announce a future big investment when the masses are as easy to drive around the map as the Cryptocurrency one is.  See Elon Musk's Dogecoin tweets and the Dogecoin charts.  They were in tandem all the time.

-
Regards,
PrivacyG

[franky1]

I have followed the S2F model for a while and I think it is failing as of now if we look at it?  Bitcoin was theoretically supposed to be in a bull run right now, was it not?

a true S2F of bitcoin is not the one being advertised that stupidly follows the price because the model includes the price in its stock metric so ofcourse its going to follow.. its not predictive.. its  shadowing

a real S2F of bitcoin is just a curve

its silly pump and dump trend anals that add a price metric and other crap to shadow the price and then tell other idiots their special chart is predicting the price..

[Gyfts]

Won't happen for a couple years at least, probably longer: You'll need the war in Ukraine to resolve, and the housing market bubble to eventually pop and then recover alongside all other markets. Crypto markets move in tandem with the global economy. If U.S./EU/China are struggling, you're not going to crypto move.

If you wanted seismic change in the crypto market, then you would need a major currency to collapse. Inflation rates are going to go down within the next few years, so that isn't a possibility.

[BitcoinPanther]

There are many prediction models that predict the price of bitcoin. One of the famous models is the Plan B stock-to-flow model. It is predicted that BTC would reach $100k before the end of the year.

Quite Bold for a prediction of Bitcoin reaching 100k when the market is currently at Bear Market and struggling to break the $25k wall.  Besides the nearest possible market reversal I read will be on September which I highly doubt.

1. Do you think such prediction models are realistic?

It will look realistic if the Price of Bitcoin is hovering around 80k to 99k so no, I don't think it is realistic.  Instead, i think this is just one of the randomly created predictions by some BTC capitalist.

2. What major event do you think will usher BTC and the entire industry into the next bullrun?

The proven event that will usher the entire Bitcoin industry to Bullrun is the Bitcoin halving event.

[Yaunfitda]

There are many prediction models that predict the price of bitcoin. One of the famous models is the Plan B stock-to-flow model. It is predicted that BTC would reach $100k before the end of the year.

Here is what I want to know the view of the community about.

1. Do you think such prediction models are realistic?

2. What major event do you think will usher BTC and the entire industry into the next bullrun?

3. Do you think Microstragy purchasing large units of btc will influence the price?

Some are of the opinion that sovereign funds and institutions will buy at discount. Well, what do you think?

Only one, bitcoin halving (as what others have pointed out).

True, maybe Saylor announcing that he will purchase large units of bitcoin might bring more investors. But it will not be enough as compare to the halving every 4 years as this is where the cycle starts for the next bull run. It might not be a quick effect and it might take months after the activity. But once it took off, it's really hard to stop the bulls and maybe that $100k that we all wanted to see will be in fruition come 2024-2025.

[goaldigger]

Won't happen for a couple years at least, probably longer: You'll need the war in Ukraine to resolve, and the housing market bubble to eventually pop and then recover alongside all other markets. Crypto markets move in tandem with the global economy. If U.S./EU/China are struggling, you're not going to crypto move.

If you wanted seismic change in the crypto market, then you would need a major currency to collapse. Inflation rates are going to go down within the next few years, so that isn't a possibility.

There’s a lot of things to consider before we see the Bull market again, and yes the War is still a big concern since it affects the inflation rate as well and the cycle continues for the economic crisis. This is just a prediction but with the current situation of Bitcoin, I think $100k this year is not possible. Whales are still not buying as of the moment, they still wait for the good price to buy because when they do, probably that is the start of the bull run especially if all whales come together to rescue BTC.

[Wilhelm]

Yes but don't expect a perfectly matched curve...

[lornadane]

There are many prediction models that predict the price of bitcoin. One of the famous models is the Plan B stock-to-flow model. It is predicted that BTC would reach $100k before the end of the year.

Plan B is a charlatan, it is impossible to predict the price of bitcoin by technical analysis, it is more and more like guessing and playing the lottery.

1. Do you think such prediction models are realistic?

The future of bitcoin can only be determined on the basis of fundamental analysis, various charts and indicators do not work in the future, they are only suitable for speculation.

2. What major event do you think will usher BTC and the entire industry into the next bullrun?

Opening of more and more bitcoin cities around the world (for example, the Swiss city of Lugano)

3. Do you think Microstragy purchasing large units of btc will influence the price?

No. Large institutional purchases do not affect the price of bitcoin, as institutional ones do not think speculatively. Anyone who thinks that if some major player buys bitcoin and this means rapid growth, he is greatly mistaken.

Yes it's true as you said but the price cycle always changes when many buyers start buying their bitcoins again.
But on the other hand bitcoin also needs good news about its development so that people are more confident in bitcoin's growth in the future.
Because with the sweet issue that has thrown the world, the wider community has responded very quickly, especially the big investors, and that becomes a support for the increase in bitcoin prices in the future.

[adaseb]

Basically we need to see inflation start to go down. So if next months CPI print is negative something like <7.5% and the following month it’s also negative then we will start to bottom out.

Then the fed will decrease the increases from 75 to 50 to 25 and eventually stop raising them. That is when we will start to see a bull market in stocks and crypto. No idea when that will happen.

Also look at employment numbers. If employment goes down then it’s a good sign that inflation is under control.

[Fundamentals Of]

1. Do you think such prediction models are realistic?

2. What major event do you think will usher BTC and the entire industry into the next bullrun?

3. Do you think Microstragy purchasing large units of btc will influence the price?

Some are of the opinion that sovereign funds and institutions will buy at discount. Well, what do you think?

1. I don't think it is, but it's what that particular model suggests. But there are many models and they're saying different things.

2. I can't think of any. But it must be a set of good news that will reverse the direction. The recovery will be gradual because the price has gone too far below. Although it will accelerate once signs are showing that the red is over.

3. It will but it depends on the quantity. But I don't like this. This will be like a bandaid approach. Let the price reach bottom and then rebound. Aside from MicroStrategy already owning a lot, this isn't the natural progress so to speak. And it has been attempted a number of times, but the effect is very short term. It failed to reverse the direction.

If sovereign funds and institutions are interested in buying, the current price is already good.

[OgNasty]

The obvious answer is that an American spot ETF approval would unleash a flood of investment money into Bitcoin. I think more important than the catalyst to rise is the headwinds that Bitcoin faces. I think once we get beyond the 2 major upcoming sell events it will be off to the races. Mtgox coins being sold on the market and ETH 2.0 coins being unlocked and sucking $ out of the crypto markets. Once those events are in the rear view it should be sunny skies.

[Lorence.xD]

The event that guarantees bitcoin a bullrun is definitely the halving, that I am pretty sure of because I've seen what happened after the halvings in the past, prices pump and the market is going wild. The other events are not the biggest factors but we can't deny that they coincide.

[Beparanf]

There are many prediction models that predict the price of bitcoin. One of the famous models is the Plan B stock-to-flow model. It is predicted that BTC would reach $100k before the end of the year.

Here is what I want to know the view of the community about.

1. Do you think such prediction models are realistic?

2. What major event do you think will usher BTC and the entire industry into the next bullrun?

3. Do you think Microstragy purchasing large units of btc will influence the price?

Some are of the opinion that sovereign funds and institutions will buy at discount. Well, what do you think?

1.) It’s realistic given the fact that Bitcoin already proved crazy gains based on its price history. But no one knows when it will happen but there is a possibility for that to occur in the future.

2.) Approval of spot based ETF and when the inflation and other economic crisis around the globe will be finally over. US stock market plummeted same as Bitcoin but when its already recovering, this might be the start for Bitcoin to do the Plan B.

3.) No