THIS CRASH IS DIFFERENT than previous crashes... The FEDERAL RESERVE is why....

[HardFacts]

Given that Bitcoin was born out of a global financial crisis, I'd imagine it'll do just fine.

WRONG     Bitcoins run up in price was during the MASSIVE MONEY PRINTING by the Federal Reserve that followed the financial crisis of 2008.  Bitcoin really started trading on any significant scale when things were near rock bottom already, and financial assets only went up due to Quantitative Easing 1, 2, and 3, and zero interest rates...

I expect Bitcoin will CRASH HARD during a financial crisis, just like it did in March 2020, but WORSE...

The time I would consider purchasing Bitcoin is IF IF Bitcoin survives the crash, it will be very very cheap.   Bitcoin, stocks, and all financial assents will have nowhere to go but up when Federal Reserve starts massive money printing again....   This would be speculation on my part, make quick money if it goes up again, then get out.  I do NOT view Bitcoin as a long term investment.

[1715207802]

1715207802

[1715207802]

1715207802

[1715207802]

1715207802

[1715207802]

1715207802

[tadamichi]

WRONG     Bitcoins run up in price was during the MASSIVE MONEY PRINTING by the Federal Reserve that followed the financial crisis of 2008.  Bitcoin really started trading on any significant scale when things were near rock bottom already, and financial assets only went up due to Quantitative Easing 1, 2, and 3, and zero interest rates...

I expect Bitcoin will CRASH HARD during a financial crisis, just like it did in March 2020, but WORSE...

The time I would consider purchasing Bitcoin is IF IF Bitcoin survives the crash, it will be very very cheap.   Bitcoin, stocks, and all financial assents will have nowhere to go but up when Federal Reserve starts massive money printing again....   This would be speculation on my part, make quick money if it goes up again, then get out.

So your strategy is rather to worship the printer than to find a way out of it, while being a crash prophet at the same time, sounds inspiring. And then you call other people emotional.

Idk if you’re aware that your crash strategy requires huge amounts of capital to pull of, because it’s hard to stay liquid during economic collapse. Also you can’t know the political consequences it will have on assets, there’s no bailouts for shrimps. You definitely have a winner’s mentality and long term vision, you’re outsmarting the whole world.

You probably already lost more opportunities to make profit by waiting for a crash, than an actual crash can bring you. And in the years you wait for crashes, inflation will already outrun you.

I do NOT view Bitcoin as a long term investment.

This is a positive note, with your motivations you just mentioned.

[o_e_l_e_o]

I am one of the ONLY people here using Logic, most people here are completely and utterly emotionally invested in Bitcoin...

The guy who only shows up during bear markets to scream about how everyone should listen to Peter Schiff calling other people too emotional. Lol.

Aren't there payment processors out there who instantly change Bitcoin to fiat in the backend for a fee?

Yes, many. It is very easy for a merchant to accept bitcoin and have it instantly converted to fiat so they are not exposed to any price fluctuations whatsoever, and all for a lower fee than they pay for accepting credit card transactions.

WRONG      Bitcoins run up in price was during the MASSIVE MONEY PRINTING by the Federal Reserve that followed the financial crisis of 2008.  Bitcoin really started trading on any significant scale when things were near rock bottom already, and financial assets only went up due to Quantitative Easing 1, 2, and 3, and zero interest rates...

I mean, QE 3 ended at the end of 2014, when bitcoin's price was ~$350. By the time bitcoin peaked at ~$20k at the end of 2017, the Fed's balance sheet had been static for years, and indeed they were just starting to reduce it. The peak of ~$13k in 2019 came at a time when the Fed's balance sheet was the lowest it had been in 5 years. This run up was absolutely influenced by more money printing, as I said on the first page of this thread, but bitcoin has not only survived times when there was no money printing or indeed active steps to reduce the outstanding balance, but has even hit peaks during these times.

[Betwrong]

Here's my theory. People who were cashing out causing this current crash have actually made good money out of the whole thing. Now they are just waiting when it's low enough to buy again. No one wants to be too late, like, "Today it's $20k, I'll wait till it's $15k and then I'll start buying." The next day the price is $25k. "Oh, I'm f*cked! What do I do? Oh, the price is $27k already! I better buy now before it goes up way more." And so on. This way the very people who crashed it will make it go to another ATH.

And if it weren't obvious that BTC is going to be one of the best ways of payment in the future, it would crash completely long time ago.

OP, just don't think you are smarter than millions of the smartest people in the world. That's immodest.

[bitquad]

Have to agree with the OP, regardless of how he "behaved" in this forum by defending someone or not, this is irrelevant.

The interest rates and the era of the big crash of Lehman Brothers, where some even UK banks collapsed (Northern Rock, Kaupthing Isle of Man and others) - during this time the investors, the hedge funds, the institutions - they got used to "cheap money" i.e. printing money endlessly, with 0 interest rates given.

Now times are changing, the rates are up, the costs of living are skyrocketing globally - hedge funds want the US dollar, as much as it represents so much debt, the US isn't going anywhere, it's here to stay for at least another century or half of it.

The dollar has value with this debt, the debt is being carried over many years and investors can get nice returns if they invest in government bonds (i.e. treasury bonds):

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

These are safe returns, and can be speculative (i.e. you don't only gain 3%, you also gain appreciation of the currency), nonetheless 2.8% in 1 year is quite nice, it sounds low for many but the era of "cheap money" is pretty over.

So investors prefer it this way, also the tensions in the world (Russia Ukraine and now Russia US) and other issues as well as fear all bring "flight to safety" - it could stop at some point, but right now it feels like a shift and not a process that wants to stop.

What's 2.8% when real inflation is probably close to 20%?

Here's my theory. People who were cashing out causing this current crash have actually made good money out of the whole thing. Now they are just waiting when it's low enough to buy again. No one wants to be too late, like, "Today it's $20k, I'll wait till it's $15k and then I'll start buying." The next day the price is $25k. "Oh, I'm f*cked! What do I do? Oh, the price is $27k already! I better buy now before it goes up way more." And so on. This way the very people who crashed it will make it go to another ATH.

And if it weren't obvious that BTC is going to be one of the best ways of payment in the future, it would crash completely long time ago.

OP, just don't think you are smarter than millions of the smartest people in the world. That's immodest.

By the time they buy back in it will be the same price they sold at so they wasted their time and also have to pay taxes on what they sold.

[HardFacts]

I mean, QE 3 ended at the end of 2014, when bitcoin's price was ~$350. By the time bitcoin peaked at ~$20k at the end of 2017, the Fed's balance sheet had been static for years, and indeed they were just starting to reduce it. The peak of ~$13k in 2019 came at a time when the Fed's balance sheet was the lowest it had been in 5 years. This run up was absolutely influenced by more money printing, as I said on the first page of this thread, but bitcoin has not only survived times when there was no money printing or indeed active steps to reduce the outstanding balance, but has even hit peaks during these times.

You are ignoring a very important fact:  Interest rates have been NEAR ZERO for the entire time of Bitcoins existence.   Near Zero interest rates, with a high balance sheet by the Federal Reserve ( there was never any significant reduction, it was tiny ) is HIGHLY STIMULATIVE monetary policy, the same policy that produced the 2006 Housing bubble.

Near Zero interest rates, AND Massive Quantitative easing by the fed over the last 14 years is unprecedented in history, and produced many bubbles in assets that should be near zero.  BITCOIN, NFT's,  Zombie Companies that will never make a profit etc. etc.

[DooMAD]

You are ignoring a very important fact:  Interest rates have been NEAR ZERO for the entire time of Bitcoins existence.   Near Zero interest rates, with a high balance sheet by the Federal Reserve ( there was never any significant reduction, it was tiny ) is HIGHLY STIMULATIVE monetary policy, the same policy that produced the 2006 Housing bubble.

Near Zero interest rates, AND Massive Quantitative easing by the fed over the last 14 years is unprecedented in history, and produced many bubbles in assets that should be near zero.  BITCOIN, NFT's,  Zombie Companies that will never make a profit etc. etc.

I suppose the real question is whether it's only the institutional investors who consider such things, or whether it's private individuals who are keeping close tabs on it too.  For me, personally, I sure as hell wasn't looking at what the Fed was or wasn't doing when I first bought in.  And I wasn't looking at what my own nation's government were doing either.  All it took was a general sense of unease about their overall lack of competence regarding the economy and off I went looking for an alternative.  

It doesn't really matter if they're printing or not printing, interest is high or low.  All it takes is for the average person to think the central bank/government are a bunch o' fuckin' idiots and bam! - we find ourselves another potential new Bitcoin enthusiast.  And given the general state of affairs right now, cost of living rising, wages failing to keep pace, etc, I'm sure there are going to be a lot of people having a serious loss of confidence in their national currencies.

[ChrisPop]

Near Zero interest rates, AND Massive Quantitative easing by the fed over the last 14 years is unprecedented in history, and produced many bubbles in assets that should be near zero.  BITCOIN, NFT's,  Zombie Companies that will never make a profit etc. etc.

I'm very curious how you got to the conclusion that Bitcoin's value should be "near zero". I suspect that's very shallow thinking.
Civilizations traded in shells thousands of years ago. How are shells more valuable than a complex, sophisticated network and rare cryptocurrency? And don't bring the argument that shells are 'tangible'. Goodwill is not tangible, but still is worth millions of dollars in company M&As. What would dollars or any fiat currency be worth without the backing of governments' decisions & guarantees? You see, it is all about trust here. The nature of Bitcoin's network makes it a trustless instrument for storing value.

What would you trust? A government full of corrupt individuals with their own self-interests or a network secured by hard core code and nodes all around the world that has a proven track record of 13 years already?

Moreover why is Gold worth so much in comparison with Bitcoin? --> Because it is tangible and has been valued by humanity for so much time. But things change. That's how we evolved as a race. Technology empower us and we should embrace it, BUT with a tint of conservatorism.

[HardFacts]

I suppose the real question is whether it's only the institutional investors who consider such things, or whether it's private individuals who are keeping close tabs on it too.  For me, personally, I sure as hell wasn't looking at what the Fed was or wasn't doing when I first bought in.

Given the statement above, you are completely and utterly ignorant of Macro Economics and how it affects asset prices.  

Most people do not think, or are even aware of what the Federal Reserve is doing when they invest...  But any fool can look at the " Miraculous " recovery of the stock market in April 2020 and figure it out    The economy was shut down, businesses closed, lockdowns, things were looking very bad, no one knew how bad Covid-19 would get.  The Federal Reserve went into emergency Money Printing mode, and cut interest rates to zero.  RESULT:  The Stock market, Bitcoin, and other assets had the fastest, best recovery in history.  

Professional Investors know that the Federal Reserve is now the biggest force in the markets, BY FAR... This is accepted fact to everyone but a Bitcoin cult believer

Yet, You still can not figure it out  

[DooMAD]

Professional Investors know that the Federal Reserve is now the biggest force in the markets, BY FAR... This is accepted fact to everyone but a Bitcoin cult believer

Yet, You still can not figure it out  

If you treat investing as though all participants in the market are reading from the same hymnsheet, you're going to lose every damn time.  These so-called "professionals" can't comprehend the reasons why I'm a market participant and I don't give a rat's ass why they decided to get involved.  All I know is that my gains are usually more impressive than theirs.  

[pete_btc]

Bitcoin has NEVER seen an era of rising interest rates and tight money before.  This time IS DIFFERENT !!!!!  Ignore this fact at your own risk

Higher interest rates favor the savers and disfavor the borrowers. It reduces, first, productivity and, later, consumption. However, I'm not sure there's a strict correlation between those two and bitcoin. Aren't many use bitcoin as savings and/or store of value?

It’s not correlated, because Bitcoin still outperforms any interest rate a bank could offer.

The people that would put their money into the bank for interest(for a loss because it still won’t outperform inflation), will be the people who buy Bitcoin last anyways. So i dont think it influences the demand side that much.

The only effect it would have, is that speculators can’t easily ape into Bitcoin or any other investments with borrowed money. Which would probably favor Bitcoin, because the market would be more hesitant to get into braindead projects or empty hypes. So higher interest rates could actually favor Bitcoin, and for sure won’t hurt it.

And as we saw now, it’s better for Bitcoin if people don’t leverage too much into it. We don’t need actors like celsius bringing down the whole market, because they gamble too much.

Thats what i am tinking too. Long term bitcoin will rise!

[tadamichi]

Given the statement above, you are completely and utterly ignorant of Macro Economics and how it affects asset prices.

The problem is that you have no clue of macroeconomics and probably just studied one small part of it, and now can’t see anything else, but this. It’s like someone blindfolded you with some bs and now you refuse to see anything else.

I don’t think anyone who’s into Bitcoin isn’t used to fluctuation, but in the long term it just becomes noise. No need for hysteria. If we’re going really long term macro nothing could speak more for Bitcoin. If you think countries can still afford high rates for a long time, then i think you was asleep for the last 14 years. If you think a failing system can be kept alive trough more and more authoritarianism(cbdcs) forever, then you probably also think communism is a great system that just hasn’t been implemented right yet.

Do you get it, no matter what the fed does, it’s just one reason more, people will go into Bitcoin. The fed is the best marketing team Bitcoin ever had, even tho it’s painful and costly and the whole world is paying for it. The only way for them to compete is to act honestly with everyones best interest in mind, now seeing individuals in the government starting to do this, is probably more unlikely than you getting more expertise about economics by just worshipping the fed. Wont happen.

Most people do not think, or are even aware of what the Federal Reserve is doing when they invest...  But any fool can look at the " Miraculous " recovery of the stock market in April 2020 and figure it out    The economy was shut down, businesses closed, lockdowns, things were looking very bad, no one knew how bad Covid-19 would get.  The Federal Reserve went into emergency Money Printing mode, and cut interest rates to zero.  RESULT:  The Stock market, Bitcoin, and other assets had the fastest, best recovery in history.  

We are fully aware what the fed does, another thing is to care about them. Pro tip: check out what’s written inside block 0.

Professional Investors know that the Federal Reserve is now the biggest force in the markets, BY FAR... This is accepted fact to everyone but a Bitcoin cult believer 

A person that bases his whole life decisions and thought process around, if someone in a central bank presses a button, calls us a cult.

[ChrisPop]

A person that bases his whole life decisions and thought process around, if someone in a central bank presses a button, calls us a cult.

Totally agree! I think it is the time people become more self-sovereign. Institutions are there to serve us, yet they have become a nuisance. The "system" is clearly not working for everybody.

We need something better. And that could be a global store-of-value asset whose supply is not controllable by any central entity that is prone to corruption. Power corrupts, we all know that. Through code we can leverage the power of the crowd without the risk mentioned.

[tadamichi]

A person that bases his whole life decisions and thought process around, if someone in a central bank presses a button, calls us a cult.

Totally agree! I think it is the time people become more self-sovereign. Institutions are there to serve us, yet they have become a nuisance. The "system" is clearly not working for everybody.

We need something better. And that could be a global store-of-value asset whose supply is not controllable by any central entity that is prone to corruption. Power corrupts, we all know that. Through code we can leverage the power of the crowd without the risk mentioned.

Yup, also Bitcoin is kinda designed to work in hostile environments, like an immune system, the more dirt you throw at it, the better it adapts, the stronger it becomes. Having no challenges makes it weaker over time, because it gets untrained. Some people don’t get this, they rather see it fail and themselves failing and the world burn, than having been proved wrong. What about putting energy into fixing this mess.

Also it’s remarkable to me, how you can hand people a way out of their misery on a golden plate, and they’re still reluctant to go against the herd. Because they’re waiting for a zero uncertainty, trillion dollar investment, zero work required unicorn to save them from everything and solve all of their problems, that will never happen. Some people have zero appreciation for all the work that goes into building something that is intended to give them control back, out of this rat race. They just let their lowest instincts for comfort and certainty rule themselves, which works against them and leads to complete exploitation.

[Haunebu]

Professional Investors know that the Federal Reserve is now the biggest force in the markets, BY FAR... This is accepted fact to everyone but a Bitcoin cult believer

Professional investors? Federal Reserve? Bitcoin cult? Do you even think before typing this garbage? You are simply speculating just like any other investor in the crypto world and your reasoning makes zero sense.

Don't act like you know what's going to happen in the future. Many fools will always doubt BTC, but time proves them wrong again and again. This is another fact.

[HardFacts]

Don't act like you know what's going to happen in the future. Many fools will always doubt BTC, but time proves them wrong again and again. This is another fact.

TIME TESTED, UNIVERSALLY ACCEPTED INVESTMENT FACT:

Past performance is not indicative of future results and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s)

Does it even strike you as a little ironic that you say no one knows the future, then YOU tell everyone that Bitcoin will rise in the future, and state it as FACT   

[Betwrong]

~

Here's my theory. People who were cashing out causing this current crash have actually made good money out of the whole thing. Now they are just waiting when it's low enough to buy again. No one wants to be too late, like, "Today it's $20k, I'll wait till it's $15k and then I'll start buying." The next day the price is $25k. "Oh, I'm f*cked! What do I do? Oh, the price is $27k already! I better buy now before it goes up way more." And so on. This way the very people who crashed it will make it go to another ATH.

And if it weren't obvious that BTC is going to be one of the best ways of payment in the future, it would crash completely long time ago.

OP, just don't think you are smarter than millions of the smartest people in the world. That's immodest.

By the time they buy back in it will be the same price they sold at so they wasted their time and also have to pay taxes on what they sold.

I don't understand what you have written, but I think I know what you meant to say: no one ever profited from Bitcoin, people were only wasting their time on buying and selling it, and also some money on taxes. Brilliant! Those are hard facts, right?

~
TIME TESTED, UNIVERSALLY ACCEPTED INVESTMENT FACT:

Past performance is not indicative of future results ~

You mean, stock market prices are unpredictable? Try to understand it yourself, and stop "predicting" then.

[BobK71]

There are a few reasons why Bitcoin has crashed in recent times. It's not just the main issue of Federal Reserve. Some others are also important to crash bitcon price like Ukraine-Russia war, still which is existing. There has been a backlash attitude towards bitcoin from china, including the recent issue of bitcoin mining. I think these reasons are actually responsible for the Bitcoin crash.

[tygeade]

snip

I have to say I didn't study no part of macroeconomics at all, and I still somehow agree with you. Maybe it could be for different reasons, maybe I just stumbled into crypto by luck and figured it out of my own without help just with pure luck, but I agree. Whatever fed does, whatever governments does, whatever people think will happen, all of that are useless because in the long run there will be plenty of situations where bitcoin will go up.

Definitely they could impact it for the time being, they could make it more volatile and it will go up and down like crazy, but that doesn't change the fact that we are talking about something that is short term and for now, whatever happens today, will have zero impact a few months later.

[franky1]

Bitcoin has ZERO intrinsic value, it is only worth what someone else will pay for it.

That's true for everything. Food is worth what people are willing to pay for it, gold is worth what people are willing to pay for it, cars are worth what people are willing to pay for them. It has nothing to do with intrinsic value.

seems someones missing a few basics about economics..

what im about to say is directed more to hardfacts. but i thought id knock two birds with one stick
(looks like these two are already stoned. so ill use a stick)

if it really was true power for the buyer to choose at their whim.. the buyer would want to pay less.. every time
nothing would be worth more then a weeks salary. iphones PS5 wouldnt be selling for more then $200

but.. here is the the wake up lesson
buyers dont have the sole power/discretion/price control. so its not a case of the price of something is only worth what people are willing to pay..

i think you are confusing where the current ATH tops out at.. whereby the ATH is the point at which there are no more buyers wiling to pay more as your misunderstood belief that value is just what people are willing to pay. because you think value is the price people do pay, until they stop.


but dont confuse market price with intrinsic/underlying value
put it this way... if it
physically costs a farmer $0.50 to grow enough wheat for a loaf of bread
physically costs a bakery $0.10 to bake the dough into bread..
physically costs a truck driver $0.01 to deliver a loaf to a retailer

the bakery will not sell it to a retailer for less than $0.61
if the retailer has all its stock/shelf fillers and cashier labour costs and profit margins to meet share holders expectations. and refuses to sell for less than $1.50.. by putting a price ticket up for $1.50
guess what. a customer cant just say "im willing to pay $0.50, so heres 50cents, im taking the loaf, thank you, bye"
a retailer would rather call the security guard over and stop that customer leaving with the loaf.

the customer is instead going to pay what the retailer offers... not the other way round

breads intrinsic value is not the $1.50. . (the market PRICE is not the intrinsic value.. )
the intrinsic value (in my example) is somewhere above $0.61 but below $1.50(i never mentioned retailers true minimum costs added)

there are value(economic) and there are values(sentiment, desire, utility)
the intrinsic value(economic) is the underlying base cost that no one would sell below.

bitcoin does have an intrinsic value. and its not the price. its below the price. its the baseline no one sells below due to what is achievably the minimum cost on the planet anyone is willing to use to create/acquire something to then sell for.
dont confuse it with the PRICE which is normally the most people are willing to buy(variable).

the values(sentiment, desire, utility) may bring it into life to be wanted/needed which is the first trigger to then get the producers to start producing more/better/more difficult/stronger version.. . and as the sentiment/desire increases, the price increases which then allows the producers to make something better/stronger/more difficult to produce which raises the intrinsic value
but there is always a buffer between the lowest cost value. and the lowest price(the added profit/sentiment of speculation/values)

the values(sentiment,desire) is the speculative layer above the underlying value(economic) where by if demand and desire is good, they can speculate to add more premium speculative amount on top for more profit.

bitcoins price is multilayered.. the price itself is not 100% based on whimsy
yes bitcoins price is not the intrinsic value. but that does not mean bitcoin doesnt have one