Fake selling Fake BTC

[jubalix]

I am increasingly of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.

After mutliple 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021, any one who was going to sell has sold, and been short squeezed out of the market.

Most real btc are in the hands oof long term holders.

occam's razor suggests it would seem that most exchange have a good amount of fractional btc that are being "made" and sold to real fiat buyers.

Haveing said that a good amount of "stable" coins are probally fake or not at face value. That is tether et.al printers are buying BTC on exchanges. Some of which will not be redeemable.

So this goes in tiers.

The people who paid fiat for thier tether.stable will not get thier fiat back, and the people who then purchased BTC with thier stable will not get thier BTC back unless they move thier BTC of the exchange.

It is my understanding that all centralised systems become fractional, even if not meaning to just to the shear number of tranactions going on.

[1714162188]

1714162188

[1714162188]

1714162188

[1714162188]

1714162188

[stompix]

I am increasinlg of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.
After mutliple 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021, any one who was going to sell has sold, and been short squeezed out of the market.

Another example of how much in the red zone we are, tinfoil hats on, it's the gubbermint, the Illuminati, fake orders, it's a conspiracy.
Whenever the free-market doens't work in their favor there is always screaming manipulation!

Most real btc are in the hands oof long term holders.

With 600 k BTC being hold on Binance, around 900k coins on Coinbase storage, and around 2 million in identified address alone it is quite hard from that to decide majority are in the hand of "long term" holders. What describes a long-term holder, one that wants to wait at least 10 years and precisely 20 days and 5 minutes, or somebody that has a target for his revenue?

Let's be honest, most so-called long-term holders are right now thinking "I could have sold at 60k buy now 3 times more BTC", imagine what will happen if the worse comes true and we go till 10k?

[LoyceMobile]

I am increasinlg of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.

Does it really matter? Banks don't have the dollars you see in your account, and your broker doesn't have the gold you bought. As long as you don't withdraw, the exchange can do anything they want. The moment you have your Bitcoin in your wallet you know for sure it's real, and that's something you can't do at your stock broker.
Don't use shady exchanges that don't allow you to withdraw.

Let's be honest, most so-called long-term holders are right now thinking "I could have sold at 60k buy now 3 times more BTC"

You read my mind!

[Husires]

I will quote some numbers to help me explain the idea.

Code:

13%    of the supply has not moved for 10+ years
6.6%   of the supply has not moved for 7 to 10 years
3.8%   of the supply has not moved for 5 to 7 years
14.7% of the supply has not moved for3 to 5 years
6.6%   of the supply has not moved for2 to 3 years
20.0    of the supply has not moved for 1 to 2 years

If you see, the largest number of those who bought recently sold, but those who bought in the past (70%) still keep those currencies, and if they do not sell them now, it is unlikely to do so within the next year.

In short, what controls the market now is hot money, which represents about 30% of the total Bitcoin supply, that amount is still large, but large cash flows are enough to bring about real changes.

This means that about 6.3 million bitcoins are controlling the markets at the present time, the total that was traded within 24 hours is 2,311,581 which represents about a third of the influential quantities.

[suzanne5223]

I am increasinlg of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.

This issue was detected a long ago and it every exchange that was guilty of fake trading at some point, not the CEX alone though CEX are the king in fake trading. However, i am surprised you just noticed this now.

 

After mutliple 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021, any one who was going to sell has sold, and been short squeezed out of the market. Most real btc are in the hands oof long term holders.

I believe most BTC is in the hands of OTC traders.

  

Haveing said that a good amount of "stable" coins are probally fake or not at face value. That is tether et.al printers are buying BTC on exchanges. Some of which will not be redeemable.

Yes, USDT minted some fake coins with the collaboration of Bitfinex before SEC regulation. In the current market, its hard for CEX stablecoin to mint fake coin

[jackg]

I am increasinlg of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.

Not sure on this one but there's probabky a profit incentive to do some fiddling with the spreads if you own an exchange (eg day trading in the background but with a strategy that reduces risk - and you won't be paying exchange fees to yourself). It'd make sense considering the amount of data exchanges have available to just increase the gap between lowest asks and highest bids and make the market buyers buy something for slightly higher but keep the funds for the company (especially when people are panic selling and volatility is expected anyway - exchanges certainly aren't arbitraging with forex either for some reason).

[jubalix]

I am increasinlg of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.
After mutliple 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021, any one who was going to sell has sold, and been short squeezed out of the market.

Another example of how much in the red zone we are, tinfoil hats on, it's the gubbermint, the Illuminati, fake orders, it's a conspiracy.
Whenever the free-market doens't work in their favor there is always screaming manipulation!

Most real btc are in the hands oof long term holders.

With 600 k BTC being hold on Binance, around 900k coins on Coinbase storage, and around 2 million in identified address alone it is quite hard from that to decide majority are in the hand of "long term" holders. What describes a long-term holder, one that wants to wait at least 10 years and precisely 20 days and 5 minutes, or somebody that has a target for his revenue?

Let's be honest, most so-called long-term holders are right now thinking "I could have sold at 60k buy now 3 times more BTC", imagine what will happen if the worse comes true and we go till 10k?

No. 600K and 900K coins are not a lot vs 17M+ coins out there.

Also you miss the point a sellers have been wiped out 3 or 4 times now.

And no long term holders dont think " "I could have sold at 60k buy now 3 times more BTC",

they thing, if I sell and the market turns I will never be able to buy back in and miss out the 10 X or 20 x or whatever.

Like the guy "I wish I had kept my 1,700 BTC @ $0.06 instead of selling them at $0.30, now that they're $8.00! "

This is what happenes when you sell, and is the mind set of a non long term holder. they would have all sold out, along time ago on the way up multiple times

represents about a third of the influential quantities.

and thats my point, wiped out in one move, at one point in time and this has happened 20 times plus is BTC falls.
The real bears with real BTC are exopentially dead and have been for a long time.

I am increasinlg of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.

This issue was detected a long ago and it every exchange that was guilty of fake trading at some point, not the CEX alone though CEX are the king in fake trading. However, i am surprised you just noticed this now.

No I said this a few years back as well, just saying it agian now, as it becomes even more apparent.

[LoyceMobile]

In short, what controls the market now is hot money, which represents about 30% of the total Bitcoin supply, that amount is still large, but large cash flows are enough to bring about real changes.

That's the same for any market, from stock to real estate. The majority isn't sold and doesn't influence the price.

This means that about 6.3 million bitcoins are controlling the markets at the present time, the total that was traded within 24 hours is 2,311,581 which represents about a third of the influential quantities.

The same Bitcoin can be sold many times in 24 hours. I assume most transactions are made by bots, not people buying to hold.

[stompix]

And no long term holders dont think " "I could have sold at 60k buy now 3 times more BTC",

Bruh, this is bs and you know it.
You have the example right above, it either means that Loycev is not a long-term holder because he thinks like this
Your whole debate is about people who should have bought in the low because for the same $ they could get more coins but at the same time, you ignore the ones lucky or smart enough that could have sold at 3 times this price and get more now.

Face reality, if I would  offer people to travel back in time for
- one year, everyone would go and sell their coins at 68k
- two years to go back and buy at 10k
- two trips? Buy at 10k dump at 60k buy at 20k!

Like the guy "I wish I had kept my 1,700 BTC @ $0.06 instead of selling them at $0.30, now that they're $8.00! "
This is what happenes when you sell, and is the mind set of a non long term holder. they would have all sold out, along time ago on the way up multiple times

Year, just with examples from one side and a decade ago and ignore reality, that a lot of guys have cashed in profits at higher levels while some are becoming longterm holders not by choice but by force as they truly believed 40k and 30k would be the bottom.
So you're telling me every one that sold down from 60k to 20k has somehow magically lost money? Get real, drop the cultism, and face reality. some sold and made a profit, some sold and manage to get a loss, but don't paint it all in just one color.

[Welsh]

And no long term holders dont think " "I could have sold at 60k buy now 3 times more BTC",

I'd consider myself a long term holder. However, if you offered me the opportunity to make three times more Bitcoin, without any uncertainty at all. I'd bite your hand off for it. Obviously, you can't guarantee it. However, there was definitely long term holders who were holding for a few years, that sold, and recouped much more Bitcoin during these times.

Also, I don't think long term holders should be seen as someone who keeps absolutely everything in Bitcoin no matter what. Most long term users will be doing trading every so often, especially when the market presents itself like it has now. Bitcoin almost has absolute guarantee of volatility in the short term. So, it somewhat makes sense. I imagine a few long term holders sold a percentage of their coins during all time highs, and then bought back in at lower prices, essentially increasing the amount they hold. Doesn't that make sense to do?

I didn't. Probably because I'm not much of a speculator. Do I wish I did now looking at the price? Absolutely, I would've jumped right back in, and accumulated at least double of what I sold. Sometimes, you've just got to make the most of how the market is reacting. For example, I'm willing to sell anything in my house that's just been lying around now, and the reinvest that into Bitcoin at its current price.

If anyone wants some old crap, hit me up

Face reality, if I would  offer people to travel back in time for
- one year, everyone would go and sell their coins at 68k

Was this just a theoretical example, or could you make this a reality?

[stompix]

I'd consider myself a long term holder. However, if you offered me the opportunity to make three times more Bitcoin, without any uncertainty at all. I'd bite your hand off for it. Obviously, you can't guarantee it. However, there was definitely long term holders who were holding for a few years, that sold, and recouped much more Bitcoin during these times.

This whole hold thing is starting to become worse than a cult, I simply can't understand how the hell can one think holders would have no regret of missing an opportunity of doing 3x or 5x like they are some kind of archangels that's don't care about such trivial things when in reality what do they hold for? Common, honesty time, nobody holds for a decade for no reason and we all know what the target is, let it reach 1 million (without some hyperinflation) and at least 90% will be f%^%$ holding, go lambo!!!!

Face reality, if I would  offer people to travel back in time for
- one year, everyone would go and sell their coins at 68k

Was this just a theoretical example, or could you make this a reality?

Right now is purely theoretical, as all my simulations are stopped by a stupid requirement, seems that unlike the other guy that tried and managed to do it since he only needed 88 mph and a DeLorean, for my project I need 21 000 021 BTC to do make it work, and this is quite the problem. 

[jubalix]

I'd consider myself a long term holder. However, if you offered me the opportunity to make three times more Bitcoin, without any uncertainty at all. I'd bite your hand off for it. Obviously, you can't guarantee it. However, there was definitely long term holders who were holding for a few years, that sold, and recouped much more Bitcoin during these times.

This whole hold thing is starting to become worse than a cult, I simply can't understand how the hell can one think holders would have no regret of missing an opportunity of doing 3x or 5x like they are some kind of archangels that's don't care about such trivial things when in reality what do they hold for? Common, honesty time, nobody holds for a decade for no reason and we all know what the target is, let it reach 1 million (without some hyperinflation) and at least 90% will be f%^%$ holding, go lambo!!!!

Face reality, if I would  offer people to travel back in time for
- one year, everyone would go and sell their coins at 68k

Was this just a theoretical example, or could you make this a reality?

Right now is purely theoretical, as all my simulations are stopped by a stupid requirement, seems that unlike the other guy that tried and managed to do it since he only needed 88 mph and a DeLorean, for my project I need 21 000 021 BTC to do make it work, and this is quite the problem.  

Snip
This whole hold thing is starting to become worse than a cult,
/Snip

No.
No it is not.
It is like realising that newtons laws of using calculus is a means of doing something.
You can ignore it, and go no where or use it and enter a new era.

BTC hodl is not hodl for hodl sake or to make a "profit" in fiat.

The hodl because they see BTC as a sui generis de novo thing, which serves to revalue the entire economic capacity of man in the world, and there by his raison d'etre for any action taken.

Now we make our decsions though the fiat feedback which is a signal that is adulterated by tax and priniting, almost leaving us blind.

BTC is much cleaner signal so we can now see where we are going and what the best action / economic action to take is.

Your just used to thinking of USD or FIAT as the deonminator.

That  thinking, your thinking is like I can trade in 10 beds on the titanic for 1 bed on land, but I have to sleep in one of the 10 beds on the Titanic.

[Welsh]

It has become an elitist mentally, that if you aren't holding you aren't a true believer in Bitcoin. It's starting to stretch to sort of religious levels of following, but it couldn't be anything further than the truth.

BTC hodl is not hodl for hodl sake or to make a "profit" in fiat.

Sure, you're somewhat right. Although, we aren't saying to cash out into profit for fiat. We're saying to cash out at highs, wait for the volatility, reinvest into Bitcoin. Therefore, you aren't increasing your fiat reserve necessarily, but you're increasing the amount of Bitcoin you would hold.

I've never traded Bitcoin for profit in fiat. I've used it for things I wanted at the time, trips etc. However, if I was offered the guarantee of buying 1 Bitcoin, then later selling that for a 3x profit in fiat, waiting for Bitcoin to drop, and then reinvesting that entire amount back into Bitcoin to turn my one Bitcoin into three Bitcoin. I would absolutely bite your hand off.

If you believe Bitcoin will continue to go up, and down for the next few years or decades, it makes absolute sense to sell at highs, and accumulate more Bitcoin than you once had.

[pooya87]

I am increasingly of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.

There is no doubt about shady behavior of centralized exchanges where they sell fake coins to make profit but you can not claim that "most" of it is fake because suck fake sales can not be sustained. At some point the exchange runs out of coins to give users for withdrawals, specially during sideways market where majority of traders pull their coins out of exchanges.

[jubalix]

I am increasingly of the view that the "bitcoin" being "sold" on centralised exchanges are mostly fake, that is fractional.

There is no doubt about shady behavior of centralized exchanges where they sell fake coins to make profit but you can not claim that "most" of it is fake because suck fake sales can not be sustained. At some point the exchange runs out of coins to give users for withdrawals, specially during sideways market where majority of traders pull their coins out of exchanges.

No, becasue no on can pick a high or low, but zoom out and it's an S uptake curve or something log.

So sure you might get a 2x of 5 x which means you stand to miss out on the 100 or 1000 x that you will never get your BTC back.

I am waiting until everything becomes demontated in sats. No fiat. Which it will.

A good wage will be a 1,000,000 sats a year.

[adaseb]

You need to understand that lots of the volume in BTC or ETH is in the futures markets. These aren’t real BTC being traded.

There are bots that arbitrage these trades and they do it on the spot market. So basically the same bitcoins can be traded multiple times in a day. Hence why it’s not an accurate to describe those coins which haven’t moved.

[GeorgeJohn]

The people who paid fiat for thier tether.stable will not get thier fiat back, and the people who then purchased BTC with thier stable will not get thier BTC back unless they move thier BTC of the exchange.

it's basically from your own ideology, if you can use bitcoin to purchase something's, it's the process you cant get back because is it has been used for exchange of cryptocurrency, but process whereby it's used for conversation from stable coin to cryptocurrency or from fiat currency to stable coin and stable to cryptocurrency such as bitcoin. It's obvious that you can get all this back if you wishes to get all back, only thing it will take is conversion, anyone you need you have to convert it to any how you need it. And the end product is fiat currency.