Most Reliable Halving Countdown?

[ImThour]

Hey,

I was wondering what's the most reliable Halving Countdown we have available for Bitcoin.
Here are some of the Halving Countdowns I found on Internet and their Prediction on when Bitcoin Halving will take place ->

1. BuyBitcoinWorldwide - 2 April, 2024
2. Binance Academy - 30 April, 2024
3. Gate.io - 3 May, 2024
4. CoinGecko - 4 May, 2024
5. BitcoinBlockHalf - 4 May, 2024
6. Nicehash  - 31 May, 2024
7. CoinmarketCap - 1 June, 2024
8. CoinWarz - 3 June, 2024

Who do you think is going to be the most accurate in terms of predicting halving date? 

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[tranthidung]

Nobody can say the accurate date and time of next halving, it's all estimation.

What we know is Bitcoin block reward will be halved after each of 210,000 blocks. The third (latest) halving was happened at the block #630,000. The next halving will happen at block #840,000.

Now, we are at block 741,661. You can make your own estimation too.

But estimation will be affected by total hashrate on the network and difficult in future. Lot of things can be changed. Assume Bitcoin network will be congested 2 weeks, the halving date & time will be delayed 2 weeks from your estimation.

Personally, it is fine to assume the next halving will happen from April to June 2024. Sooner or later 1 to 2 months is not a big matter.

Past halving event dates

• The first halving event occurred on the 28th of November, 2012 (UTC) at block height 210,000
• The second halving event occurred on the 9th of July, 2016 (UTC) at block height 420,000
• The third halving event occurred on the 11th of May, 2020 (UTC) at block height 630,000

[NotATether]

The only way you will get an accurate countdown timer is if you count down directly in blocks, and not days.

It could turn out that all of these halvening countdown timers become wildly incorrect as it comes much sooner or much later than the predicted dates.

I wouldn't be surprised if they actually adjust the end date based on the bi-weekly (technically, every 2016 blocks) difficulty adjustments.

[Welsh]

It could turn out that all of these halvening countdown timers become wildly incorrect as it comes much sooner or much later than the predicted dates.

I wouldn't be surprised if they actually adjust the end date based on the bi-weekly (technically, every 2016 blocks) difficulty adjustments.

When you say wildly incorrect, what time frame are you speaking of there? Surely, as long as there's no massive changes in hash rate, and the difficulty adjusts within a certain period, you wouldn't get any more than a month difference? I'm saying a month as that's probably overestimating. I imagine it would be a maximum of a week or two difference?

I'm sure someone has done the Math before, and how much price changes, and therefore difficulty, and hash rate effects the date of the halving.

[hosseinimr93]

As already stated in previous posts, there is no way to calculate the exact time of next halving.
The halving is occurred every 210,000 blocks and blocks are estimated to be mined every 10 minutes on average.

At the time I am writing this post, 741693 blocks have been mined. This means that 111,693 blocks have been mined after the previous halving and 98,307 blocks will be mined before the next halving.
Assuming the next blocks will be mined every 10 minutes on average, the next halving will be 682 days later (May, 03, 2024)
If blocks are mined at the same rate as the mined blocks of the current 210,000 block period, the next halving will be 678 days later (April, 29, 2024)

So, I estimate that the next halving will be in the last week of April, 2024 or in the first week of May, 2024.

[ImThour]

I'm sure someone has done the Math before, and how much price changes, and therefore difficulty, and hash rate effects the date of the halving.

Exactly, that's what I am actually looking for If someone can try and get the most accurate date for halving.
That will surely help me in my TA to find when BTC will be forming a bottom.

I am not sure out of all these websites mentioned which is correct as the date varies from April to June.

[Welsh]

Exactly, that's what I am actually looking for If someone can try and get the most accurate date for halving.
That will surely help me in my TA to find when BTC will be forming a bottom.

I am not sure out of all these websites mentioned which is correct as the date varies from April to June.

Yeah, not sure what's the best way of going about it. Since, I imagine their initial predictions at the end of the last halving were a little different to what they're displaying now. So, for anyone to accurately predict they probably would need to analyse that far back, to see how difficulty changed etc.

I definitely haven't looked at the statistics to give any meaningful predictions, it would be nice if these predictors gave some sort of formula that they use to determine the date, otherwise they might just be purely guessing.

[NeuroticFish]

Who do you think is going to be the most accurate in terms of predicting halving date? 

My crystal ball is broken, so you have to ask those who can travel to the future.
Now seriously, since the blocks don't come at exactly 10 minutes, not even on average (else the difficulty should not need adjustments every ~2 weeks), on what basis could anybody make an accurate prediction?!

Normally the hash rate goes up slowly, hence if one sets that prediction to a little under 10 min * remaining blocks he should be fine.
But in reality unpredictable things like we had in the past (accidents in coal mines, need to relocate big mining farms, ...) can happen rendering all the predictions incorrect.

What I would do with such a website? I would keep it simple: calculate some 9m58s per remaining block and adjust that every .. let's say 100 blocks (of course, I could do it also at every new block). Is that accurate? No. Is that wrong? Hardly.

[Upgrade00]

To give an assessment on which website could be most accurate in determining the next Bitcoin halving, it would be important to check how close they were to the actual dates of previous halvings (if they existed then), and how much their estimation has aligned with the network so far in this halving as we are more than half way through (in blocks at least)

Of course it could just be a mere coincidence if any is more accurate and your guess could be as good anyone else's. Considering that factors such as price changes, government activities etc; which no one can predict, could affect the estimation.

That will surely help me in my TA to find when BTC will be forming a bottom.

I understand you should know what you're doing, but I will just point out that the bottom doesn't always correlate with the halving date.
As the halving draws closer investor sentiments usually start to grow as it attracts lots of attention, and investors; Who think buying before the halving and hodling is a fast way to get profits.
This could result in price spikes around that period.

[_act_]

Who do you think is going to be the most accurate in terms of predicting halving date? 

No accurate information on this, the closer the time the more accurate they will be. I guess next halving will be before May.

To give an assessment on which website could be most accurate in determining the next Bitcoin halving, it would be important to check how close they were to the actual dates of previous halvings (if they existed then), and how much their estimation has aligned with the network so far in this halving as we are more than half way through (in blocks at least)

The closer to the day, the better will be the accuracy, no site can be accurate for now, the best that can be done which is accurate is to just not use the date but the blocks remaining, but not bad either to estimate the time. Some blocks will be mined before 10 minutes, some will be mined after 10 minutes, the last 3 halving do not occur exactly at the same time, so no site can be accurate about this even if they use 10 minutes bitcoin block mining for the calculation.

[stompix]

At the time I am writing this post, 741693 blocks have been mined. This means that 111,693 blocks have been mined after the previous halving and 98,307 blocks will be mined before the next halving.
Assuming the next blocks will be mined every 10 minutes on average, the next halving will be 682 days later (May, 03, 2024)

That's what the three of them have done

3. Gate.io - 3 May, 2024 it's now 4th also
4. CoinGecko  - 4 May, 2024
5. BitcoinBlockHalf  - 4 May, 2024

I assume
1. BuyBitcoinWorldwide - 2 April, 2024
is doing the average block time for the previous period, that's why they are getting so out of the pack, but you won't have in this period the same extreme jumps the last one had, so probably they will miss it by a lot.
I checked the archived page: it said March 15, 2024, so clearly, it's going to be pushed back a lot.

Looking at the archived page of the other side
7. CoinWarz  - 3 June, 2024, it was saying May 16, 2024 in January, so in this case looking at previous adjustments that included a 8% in December I assume they are doing a median for the last x difficulty adjustments, that's why any drop will push it down more.

The difficulty will adjust in one day, I'm sure quite a few of them will change their timing by quite a bit since it will go down after an up.
But if I were to bet on one, it will be probably Binance, a time just a tiny bit faster than the averge.

When you say wildly incorrect, what time frame are you speaking of there? Surely, as long as there's no massive changes in hash rate, and the difficulty adjusts within a certain period, you wouldn't get any more than a month difference?

That's exactly why you can get those differences, as nobody has a clue how many s19xp and hydros have been ordered and will be sold, only a one-on-one change would bring us a 30% increase in hashrate with no price adjustment, that alone will be enough for a 5-day faster halving. There are gear orders for around 50-70 exa this year, that would again be enough for an extra week, ad a recovery to 40k for the last 6 months and you could reach a month swing. Since we had a + 5.56 % followed by a + 4.89 % one month ago it wouldn't be a surprise for it to happen again, especially if you look at large mining companies' press releases about expansion, even in these times.

Theoretically, it could be done I wouldn't be surprised by it, but as I said my bet is at around the 1st of May, a +1% average difficulty adjustment till then.

[hZti]

If many miners shut of because of low prices than the next block will be slower than 10 minutes. This will not change until the difficulty is adjusted. The same goes if price does rise or for whatever reason the mini power goes up. The block will be found quicker than 10 minutes until the difficulty adjusts. So nobody can say when the next 210.000 blocks will be mined.

[hosseinimr93]

1. BuyBitcoinWorldwide - 2 April, 2024
is doing the average block time for the previous period, that's why they are getting so out of the pack, but you won't have in this period the same extreme jumps the last one had, so probably they will miss it by a lot.

The 210,000 blocks of the previous period were mined in 1402 days, 2 hours, 37 minutes.
This means that the average block time for the previous period was 9.614 minutes.
Assuming the next blocks will be mined at the same rate, the halving will be 656 days later (April, 7, 2024)

It seems that they have used the average block time of all mined blocks (not only blocks of the previous period).
Till now, 741,710 blocks have been mined. These blocks have been mined in 4916 days, 16 hours, 41 minutes and gives us the average block time of 9.546 minutes.
Assuming the next blocks will be mined at the same rate, the halving will be 651 days later (April, 2, 2024). This is exactly what predicted by BuyBitcoinWorldwide.

[ImThour]

Assuming the next blocks will be mined at the same rate, the halving will be 651 days later (April, 2, 2024). This is exactly what predicted by BuyBitcoinWorldwide.

I check it regularly and what I found is they updated their prediction from March 20, 2022 to April 2, 2024. Their prediction is changed on the daily basis on the average of bitcoin blocks mined.

Overall, most of these have predicted the halving in May. So I think that's where it will eventually land in 2024. Let's see how it goes.

[add1ct3dd]

Accuracy is not really that far off, maybe from peak to bottom there is 2nd April and 3rd of June, so that could be looking like a big difference, but when you average it out, the middle has May as the most likely version. Obviously, there are a lot of time left for this to happen which is why I believe that we should definitely wait a bit more before we could decide on when that will happen.

It all depends on the timing and the closer we get, the more information and data we will have for predicting it and I am guessing that the closest thing we will get would be something like at least 2023, then we can make a prediction. Until then, May seems like the only sure thing.

[Jody.Drummer]

Hey,

I was wondering what's the most reliable Halving Countdown we have available for Bitcoin.
Here are some of the Halving Countdowns I found on Internet and their Prediction on when Bitcoin Halving will take place ->

1. BuyBitcoinWorldwide - 2 April, 2024
2. Binance Academy - 30 April, 2024
3. Gate.io - 3 May, 2024
4. CoinGecko - 4 May, 2024
5. BitcoinBlockHalf - 4 May, 2024
6. Nicehash  - 31 May, 2024
7. CoinmarketCap - 1 June, 2024
8. CoinWarz - 3 June, 2024

Who do you think is going to be the most accurate in terms of predicting halving date? 

I can't say one of them is correct, but I should make sure when ATH later and get one of the calculations above correct then it could be a coincidence or can be followed as a guide. As for now, all can be used as reference material only and will not consider more than that. Counting down to the months of April, May, and June, we must have prepared well in advance.

[ImThour]

Yes, this thread of mine can now serve as the reference on which of these Halving Countdowns was far more accurate.
Something which people can use later on in the next cycles. Glad I could contribute in any way to this community. 

[ImThour]

Update on this thread after 10 months

Now, today on 25th April 2023, this is what these websites say:

1. BuyBitcoinWorldwide - April 6, 2024 (+4 days)
2. Binance Academy - 30 April, 2024 (same)
3. Gate.io - 28 April, 2024 (-5 days)
4. CoinGecko - 28 April, 2024 (-6 days)
5. BitcoinBlockHalf - 27 April, 2024 (-7 days)
6. Nicehash  - Website Down
7. CoinmarketCap - Page Removed
8. CoinWarz - Apr 27, 2024 (-35 days)

I am sure it will change again however, one thing to be sure of is that it will be somewhere between 25th April to 2nd May 2024 which is almost 1 year from now.
It's a good accumulation period going on and I think no one should miss this chance of acquiring cheap bits.

[YUriy1991]

Hey,

I was wondering what's the most reliable Halving Countdown we have available for Bitcoin.
Here are some of the Halving Countdowns I found on Internet and their Prediction on when Bitcoin Halving will take place ->

1. BuyBitcoinWorldwide - 2 April, 2024
2. Binance Academy - 30 April, 2024
3. Gate.io - 3 May, 2024
4. CoinGecko - 4 May, 2024
5. BitcoinBlockHalf - 4 May, 2024
6. Nicehash  - 31 May, 2024
7. CoinmarketCap - 1 June, 2024
8. CoinWarz - 3 June, 2024

Who do you think is going to be the most accurate in terms of predicting halving date? 

2024 to 2025 should be heading for a bull run already given the conditions and the Persistence Halving Countdown can help track when such an event is most likely to occur, but it's important to approach it with a healthy dose of skepticism. It is not easy to predict the exact date of the halving event, it can be complicated, because it depends on many factors that can influence, for example the world's attention will be on the election of the American president and the data that you present in my view can be a reference too even though later there will be a shift.

I think the best way to approach a halving event is to have a long term investment strategy and focus on the underlying technology behind Bitcoin. By doing so, anyone would be better prepared to weather any fluctuations in the market and come out on top in the end.

[Helena Yu]

Update on this thread after 10 months

Now, today on 25th April 2023, this is what these websites say:

6. Nicehash  - Website Down
7. CoinmarketCap - Page Removed

It's weird why the page removed in CoinmarketCap

AFAIK CoinmarketCap was acquisited by Binance, but they have a different prediction about when the halving will happen.

Nicehash went online again, the current prediction is 11 May 2024 (-20 days).

2024 to 2025 should be heading for a bull run already given the conditions and the Persistence Halving Countdown can help track when such an event is most likely to occur, but it's important to approach it with a healthy dose of skepticism. It is not easy to predict the exact date of the halving event, it can be complicated, because it depends on many factors that can influence, for example the world's attention will be on the election of the American president and the data that you present in my view can be a reference too even though later there will be a shift.

How it's possible electrion of American president will affect halving event in the first place? miners will not stop to mine Bitcoin except there are natural disasters, viruses, wars or anything that can harm themselves.

Even you know the exact date of halving will occur, you can't know when Bitcoin price will start to bull run and reach new ATH.