the China PBOC event explained

[pungopete468]

The PBOC must understand that closing the exchanges will do little to stop the effect of Bitcoin capital flight.

The social network between people is too great; even if China can prevent social networking websites from talking about it. The word of mouth for something like Bitcoin between friends and family is strong enough to make capital flight unstoppable should the Chinese people desire to preserve their wealth as the unimaginably large economic bubble bursts.

I honestly think this is a direct reaction to an abnormally high risk of economic collapse. I think this is a strong knee-jerk reaction and it is very much grasping at straws.

The Chinese government is resisting change, but sometimes change is irresistible. The Chinese government can't keep the people from Bitcoin any more than they can keep a Typhoon away from the coast.

[jl2012]

So, in your opinion, why have exchanges continued to operate? Are we to suppose that none of them have a long term business plan? That is hard to believe, especially considering the recent infusion of VC capital into multiple exchanges.

Unless the people running the exchanges are complete idiots, and I assume they are not, what is it that they plan to do?

This, I cannot solve, but I have a theory.

I am speculating that Exchange's CEOs (some of them know me but didn't establish business contact) are simply confused and waiting for their bank managers to tell them that the accounts will be closed soon, meanwhile making backup plans to move to HK. The bank managers, however, was told to hold, and wait for PBOC's new decision. PBOC is watching media and trying to sense if everybody are ready to accept the fate -> Yes = Go on as planned. No = Make new strategy with the same goal. PBOC has a history of clumsy PR management, they are learning it too, so it's hard to predict their move. Notice that this time PBOC started the action (last time 18th Dec 2013, 5-ministry co-operated) so they have more room to change strategy, nevertheless the intention is clear now.

As I said I hope they really enforce it so this will be the last time we got China-ed. If today PBOC is not clarifying like last time, the odds is big

[TERA]

The PBOC must understand that closing the exchanges will do little to stop the effect of Bitcoin capital flight.

The social network between people is too great; even if China can prevent social networking websites from talking about it. The word of mouth for something like Bitcoin between friends and family is strong enough to make capital flight unstoppable should the Chinese people desire to preserve their wealth as the unimaginably large economic bubble bursts.

I honestly think this is a direct reaction to an abnormally high risk of economic collapse. I think this is a strong knee-jerk reaction and it is very much grasping at straws.

The Chinese government is resisting change, but sometimes change is irresistible. The Chinese government can't keep the people from Bitcoin any more than they can keep a Typhoon away from the coast.

I don't think that the actual economy of bitcoin in China was that big if it even existed at all. The trading volume was just daytraders speculating and trading with the help of exchanges. Now that the exchanges are closed they will look for the next place where they can easily speculate and trade a different asset. There will be no motivation for them to suddenly establish a barter based bitcoin economy, especially not one nearly as large as the trading volume that was going on in exchanges.

[MatTheCat]

I don't know why the Chinese central authorities want to cede future financial power to the West by banning Bitcoin. Bitcoin could wind up being worth hundreds of trillions of dollars.  A poor small country like the Phillipines could choose to aggressively adopt it and become an overnight super power in China's backyard. They better think long and hard about their decision. It could be the best or worst decision they make in hundreds of years.

Perhaps because Bitcoin is an excellent means of capital flight for wealthy Chinese citizens and therefore is a financial weapon that if left unchecked, could grow to undermine the whole Chinese economy?

[windjc]

The PBOC must understand that closing the exchanges will do little to stop the effect of Bitcoin capital flight.

The social network between people is too great; even if China can prevent social networking websites from talking about it. The word of mouth for something like Bitcoin between friends and family is strong enough to make capital flight unstoppable should the Chinese people desire to preserve their wealth as the unimaginably large economic bubble bursts.

I honestly think this is a direct reaction to an abnormally high risk of economic collapse. I think this is a strong knee-jerk reaction and it is very much grasping at straws.

The Chinese government is resisting change, but sometimes change is irresistible. The Chinese government can't keep the people from Bitcoin any more than they can keep a Typhoon away from the coast.

I don't think that the actual economy of bitcoin in China was that big if it even existed at all. The trading volume was just daytraders speculating and trading with the help of exchanges. Now that the exchanges are closed they will look for the next place where they can easily speculate and trade a different asset. There will be no motivation for them to suddenly establish a barter based bitcoin economy, especially not one nearly as large as the trading volume that was going on in exchanges.

I agree with this.

I also don't think that the Chinese government is that concerned with Bitcoin. I think it sees it as a small annoyance.

Years down the road, if bitcoin is integrated in a global manner, they will change their mind.

For now though, I expect exchanges will be moving to Hong Kong, where they probably should have been from the start.

[TERA]

I don't know why the Chinese central authorities want to cede future financial power to the West by banning Bitcoin. Bitcoin could wind up being worth hundreds of trillions of dollars.  A poor small country like the Phillipines could choose to aggressively adopt it and become an overnight super power in China's backyard. They better think long and hard about their decision. It could be the best or worst decision they make in hundreds of years.

Perhaps the chinese authorities don't have the same opinion as the bulls do here about how magnificient the bitcoin technology is and how big it will become and how it could give that much power to a foreign country as you believe. They probably think of it more like another pesky shadow currency which they've banned many of in the past.

[Bit_Happy]

....Now that the exchanges are closed.....

Please don't fall for this crap.
This afternoon the CEO's of every major Chinese exchange said it was rumors and they had nothing official. (I don't have the link now, but I saw it here and maybe on Reddit too)

The current status is still FUD and BS until proven otherwise.


Edit:
Here is the quote, but the article I saw earlier was stronger at making 'today's big news' sound like total BS.

“I’m aware of the rumors circulating on the topic,” Bobby Lee, chief executive officer of BTC China, one of the largest bitcoin exchanges in the Asian nation, said by phone today. “I haven’t heard of anything else to confirm that. We are still waiting to see what happens.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-27/pboc-orders-banks-to-shut-bitcoin-exchange-accounts-caixin-says.html

[TERA]

....Now that the exchanges are closed.....

Please don't fall for this crap.
This afternoon the CEO's of every major Chinese exchange said it was rumors and they had nothing official. (I don't have the link now, but I saw it here and maybe on Reddit too)

The current status is still FUD and BS until proven otherwise.

Obviously they are going to say that so that business keeps running as usual.

[seleme]

BTW, what is to stop Chinese to open account in Hong Kong, still his own country, and to trade from there, deposit and withdraw.

Is it a problem for Mainland Chinese to do a that in Hong Kong?

[pungopete468]

I'm not looking at it from the perspective of today. The government is likely to exist for a very long time. Bitcoin is something that is not going away... It's unwise for a government to ignore the potential future gravity of a changing idea/technology.

I'm looking into the near future where one possible scenario is an economic collapse of CNY.

Most Chinese hedge on commodities. The Chinese people can't get their wealth out of China.

The desire to leave would increase sharply should the Chinese bubble burst. People will be looking for a loop-hole and the PBOC can't stop it. There is a limit to all things; the Chinese people will soon realize that they are capable of choosing between whats right and wrong.

The PBOC would have been better off leaving it alone.

The actions of those who would prevent change may only hasten it; the actions of those who would implement change may delay it.

[zhangweiwu]

Please don't fall for this crap.
This afternoon the CEO's of every major Chinese exchange said it was rumors and they had nothing official. (I don't have the link now, but I saw it here and maybe on Reddit too)

I maintained that CEOs of Chinese exchanges had nothing official - I never aruged against it. The arguement I am making is that the rumors are true, although various factor can influnce the execution. Then again, you only need to know the intention of PBOC - the general believe is PBOC wins every round.

[Siegfried]

The PBOC must understand that closing the exchanges will do little to stop the effect of Bitcoin capital flight.

The social network between people is too great; even if China can prevent social networking websites from talking about it. The word of mouth for something like Bitcoin between friends and family is strong enough to make capital flight unstoppable should the Chinese people desire to preserve their wealth as the unimaginably large economic bubble bursts.

I honestly think this is a direct reaction to an abnormally high risk of economic collapse. I think this is a strong knee-jerk reaction and it is very much grasping at straws.

The Chinese government is resisting change, but sometimes change is irresistible. The Chinese government can't keep the people from Bitcoin any more than they can keep a Typhoon away from the coast.

I don't think that the actual economy of bitcoin in China was that big if it even existed at all. The trading volume was just daytraders speculating and trading with the help of exchanges. Now that the exchanges are closed they will look for the next place where they can easily speculate and trade a different asset. There will be no motivation for them to suddenly establish a barter based bitcoin economy, especially not one nearly as large as the trading volume that was going on in exchanges.

I agree with this.

I also don't think that the Chinese government is that concerned with Bitcoin. I think it sees it as a small annoyance.

Years down the road, if bitcoin is integrated in a global manner, they will change their mind.

For now though, I expect exchanges will be moving to Hong Kong, where they probably should have been from the start.

What are the restrictions/limits on people taking/withdrawing RMB in Hong Kong or converting to HK dollars? Does the PBOC have any control over Hong Kong? I can see people easily taking a trip to Hong Kong and buying a large amount of BTC.

[Bit_Happy]

Please don't fall for this crap.
This afternoon the CEO's of every major Chinese exchange said it was rumors and they had nothing official. (I don't have the link now, but I saw it here and maybe on Reddit too)

I maintained that CEOs of Chinese exchanges had nothing official - I never aruged against it. The arguement I am making is that the rumors are true, although various factor can influnce the execution.

If it was true the exchanges would know about it.
Smart money is buying BTC while you spread your BS.   

[zhangweiwu]

What are the restrictions/limits on people taking/withdrawing RMB in Hong Kong or converting to HK dollars? Does the PBOC have any control over Hong Kong? I can see people easily taking a trip to Hong Kong and buying a large amount of BTC.

A Chinese citizen can not purchase more than 50,000USD's worth of forieng currency like HKD in a year.

[windjc]

The PBOC must understand that closing the exchanges will do little to stop the effect of Bitcoin capital flight.

The social network between people is too great; even if China can prevent social networking websites from talking about it. The word of mouth for something like Bitcoin between friends and family is strong enough to make capital flight unstoppable should the Chinese people desire to preserve their wealth as the unimaginably large economic bubble bursts.

I honestly think this is a direct reaction to an abnormally high risk of economic collapse. I think this is a strong knee-jerk reaction and it is very much grasping at straws.

The Chinese government is resisting change, but sometimes change is irresistible. The Chinese government can't keep the people from Bitcoin any more than they can keep a Typhoon away from the coast.

I don't think that the actual economy of bitcoin in China was that big if it even existed at all. The trading volume was just daytraders speculating and trading with the help of exchanges. Now that the exchanges are closed they will look for the next place where they can easily speculate and trade a different asset. There will be no motivation for them to suddenly establish a barter based bitcoin economy, especially not one nearly as large as the trading volume that was going on in exchanges.

I agree with this.

I also don't think that the Chinese government is that concerned with Bitcoin. I think it sees it as a small annoyance.

Years down the road, if bitcoin is integrated in a global manner, they will change their mind.

For now though, I expect exchanges will be moving to Hong Kong, where they probably should have been from the start.

What are the restrictions/limits on people taking/withdrawing RMB in Hong Kong or converting to HK dollars? Does the PBOC have any control over Hong Kong? I can see people easily taking a trip to Hong Kong and buying a large amount of BTC.

Bitfinex operates out of Hong Kong. They are not affected by the Chinese Government.

[gog1]

BTW, what is to stop Chinese to open account in Hong Kong, still his own country, and to trade from there, deposit and withdraw.

Is it a problem for Mainland Chinese to do a that in Hong Kong?

Anyone can open account in HK, just that you cannot remit CNY to mainland and vice versa (subject to annual $50k USD limit per person).

Of course, there are ways to get around it.

[zhangweiwu]

Bitfinex operates out of Hong Kong. They are not affected by the Chinese Government.

Do you mean "Bitfinex operates out of China mainland, in Hong Kong; They are not affected by the Chinese Government."?

Because I always thought Bitfinex is a HK business, am I wrong?

[windjc]

Bitfinex operates out of Hong Kong. They are not affected by the Chinese Government.

Do you mean "Bitfinex operates out of China mainland, in Hong Kong; They are not affected by the Chinese Government."?

Because I always thought Bitfinex is a HK business, am I wrong?

Correct.

[Siegfried]

What are the restrictions/limits on people taking/withdrawing RMB in Hong Kong or converting to HK dollars? Does the PBOC have any control over Hong Kong? I can see people easily taking a trip to Hong Kong and buying a large amount of BTC.

A Chinese citizen can not purchase more than 50,000USD's worth of forieng currency like HKD in a year.

So the exchanges will move to Hong Kong. Chinese who want to buy BTC will be told by the exchange to send RMB to an exchange employee in China, who will then purchase HK dollars which will then be deposited in the exchange's HK bank account.

[akujin]

china just wants more cash into the country and less going out..  That's the plan..
putting restrictions to prevent fiat to crypto but allow manufacturing/selling mining hardwares and mining coins... then convert crypto to fiat...
And china prospers...