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Author Topic: the China PBOC event explained  (Read 8200 times)
zhangweiwu
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March 31, 2014, 09:03:38 AM
 #81

bter just clarified that only their 3rd party processor account got closed. They never had a bank account for deposit. So it is still unknown whether bank deposit is banned.

From your previous post record I will trust this conclusion without further homework. So today some my effort in speculating on unverified information. Pity.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
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March 31, 2014, 09:06:51 AM
 #82

bter just clarified that only their 3rd party processor account got closed. They never had a bank account for deposit. So it is still unknown whether bank deposit is banned.

From your previous post record I will trust this conclusion without further homework. So today some my effort in speculating on unverified message. Sorry.

This is the clarification from bter: https://bter.com/article/403

Also on the front page of btctrade: http://www.btctrade.com/

So far only 3rd party processors are concerned.

But still, bter confirmed that there is a memo from PBOC to their 3rd party processor. So a memo of some kind does exist

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March 31, 2014, 09:12:01 AM
 #83

If China did ban bank accounts of exchanges, this would be the best thing ever.

1. BTC China and Huobi will be forced to develop exchange market based on individual bank accounts transacting with one another directly.

2. The publicity from the ban will raise people's awareness of bitcoin in china. People will try to understand what is going on and why the PBOC feels so threatened.

3. After the initial drop in price, people will realise that life goes on. The PBOC cannot succesfully ban everyone's bank account.

That would never happen, have you ever used banks b4? sound like some teenage's dream

It's called direct funds transfer.

Which is reversible, are you done dreaming kid?

What if one party is trusted and the problem is solved? By all means, unless you've got a transfer from your relatives then it's safe other than that it has to be ensured so that you feel safe and secure.
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March 31, 2014, 09:14:23 AM
 #84

But still, bter confirmed that there is a memo from PBOC to their 3rd party processor. So a memo of some kind does exist

I just read it. By putting such an announcement there especially the last " 就算世界荒芜,总会有人是你的信徒", BTER forever lost possiblity of getting recognized loyal (while BTCChina repeatedly expressed willingness). Now it's up to PBOC to decide whether loyalty matters - sometimes, they demand loyality, sometimes they just want you dead. We will see.

Reading BTER news I think we are not at the bottom yet.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
jl2012
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March 31, 2014, 09:31:48 AM
 #85

But still, bter confirmed that there is a memo from PBOC to their 3rd party processor. So a memo of some kind does exist

I just read it. By putting such an announcement there especially the last " 就算世界荒芜,总会有人是你的信徒", BTER forever lost possiblity of getting recognized loyal (while BTCChina repeatedly expressed willingness). Now it's up to PBOC to decide whether loyalty matters - sometimes, they demand loyality, sometimes they just want you dead. We will see.

Reading BTER news I think we are not at the bottom yet.

So far, the 327 Caixin report is 50% confirmed: a recent memo from PBOC banning 3rd party deposit. This is not really interesting as we all know 3rd party deposit has been banned last December after a PBOC meeting. Smaller 3rd party processors which didn't attend the meeting tried to fly under the radar and now the PBOC issues an official memo.

What about bank deposit? There are some possibilities:

1. the Caixin report is 100% correct, the bank accounts will be closed on 15 Apr. However, since none of the 15 named exchanges confirm a ban, I believe this is not the most likely case. I would say 10% chance

2. the Caixin report is mostly correct. The bank accounts will be closed after 15 Apr to give enough time for people to get money back. The exchanges will soon get a notice from their banks. I would say 45% chance.

3. the Caixin report is only 50% correct. Only 3rd party deposit is concerned at this moment. I would say this is also 45% chance.

What do you think?

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March 31, 2014, 09:40:09 AM
 #86

But still, bter confirmed that there is a memo from PBOC to their 3rd party processor. So a memo of some kind does exist

I just read it. By putting such an announcement there especially the last " 就算世界荒芜,总会有人是你的信徒", BTER forever lost possiblity of getting recognized loyal (while BTCChina repeatedly expressed willingness). Now it's up to PBOC to decide whether loyalty matters - sometimes, they demand loyality, sometimes they just want you dead. We will see.

Reading BTER news I think we are not at the bottom yet.

So far, the 327 Caixin report is 50% confirmed: a recent memo from PBOC banning 3rd party deposit. This is not really interesting as we all know 3rd party deposit has been banned last December after a PBOC meeting. Smaller 3rd party processors which didn't attend the meeting tried to fly under the radar and now the PBOC issues an official memo.

What about bank deposit? There are some possibilities:

1. the Caixin report is 100% correct, the bank accounts will be closed on 15 Apr. However, since none of the 15 named exchanges confirm a ban, I believe this is not the most likely case. I would say 10% chance

2. the Caixin report is mostly correct. The bank accounts will be closed after 15 Apr to give enough time for people to get money back. The exchanges will soon get a notice from their banks. I would say 45% chance.

3. the Caixin report is only 50% correct. Only 3rd party deposit is concerned at this moment. I would say this is also 45% chance.

What do you think?
If you're hoarding BTC/LTC then this has no impact on you because it won't collapse due to one country banning it or limiting its use; however if you make a mistake of getting into the game when it's +/-$1000 and expect to make a quick buck or getting rich then you're expecting to lose big time. For the rest, you just need to wait it out. China may not be nice at the beginning then look else where. One door closes, expect many other doors open!
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March 31, 2014, 09:44:44 AM
 #87

But still, bter confirmed that there is a memo from PBOC to their 3rd party processor. So a memo of some kind does exist

I just read it. By putting such an announcement there especially the last " 就算世界荒芜,总会有人是你的信徒", BTER forever lost possiblity of getting recognized loyal (while BTCChina repeatedly expressed willingness). Now it's up to PBOC to decide whether loyalty matters - sometimes, they demand loyality, sometimes they just want you dead. We will see.

Reading BTER news I think we are not at the bottom yet.

So far, the 327 Caixin report is 50% confirmed: a recent memo from PBOC banning 3rd party deposit. This is not really interesting as we all know 3rd party deposit has been banned last December after a PBOC meeting. Smaller 3rd party processors which didn't attend the meeting tried to fly under the radar and now the PBOC issues an official memo.

What about bank deposit? There are some possibilities:

1. the Caixin report is 100% correct, the bank accounts will be closed on 15 Apr. However, since none of the 15 named exchanges confirm a ban, I believe this is not the most likely case. I would say 10% chance

2. the Caixin report is mostly correct. The bank accounts will be closed after 15 Apr to give enough time for people to get money back. The exchanges will soon get a notice from their banks. I would say 45% chance.

3. the Caixin report is only 50% correct. Only 3rd party deposit is concerned at this moment. I would say this is also 45% chance.

What do you think?
If you're hoarding BTC/LTC then this has no impact on you because it won't collapse due to one country banning it or limiting its use; however if you make a mistake of getting into the game when it's +/-$1000 and expect to make a quick buck or getting rich then you're expecting to lose big time. For the rest, you just need to wait it out. China may not be nice at the beginning then look else where. One door closes, expect many other doors open!

I totally agree with you but I'm not talking about price speculation here.

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zhangweiwu
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March 31, 2014, 03:06:09 PM
 #88

1. the Caixin report is 100% correct, the bank accounts will be closed on 15 Apr. However, since none of the 15 named exchanges confirm a ban, I believe this is not the most likely case. I would say 10% chance

2. the Caixin report is mostly correct. The bank accounts will be closed after 15 Apr to give enough time for people to get money back. The exchanges will soon get a notice from their banks. I would say 45% chance.

3. the Caixin report is only 50% correct. Only 3rd party deposit is concerned at this moment. I would say this is also 45% chance.

What do you think?

I am inclined to agree with you.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
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March 31, 2014, 03:10:18 PM
 #89

I am inclined to agree with you.

The *correction* that BTER released (saying it was only 3rd party stuff) makes me suspect that this is *just another game*.

We will of course see *after* mid-April but my advice to people would be to "hold" and not "panic sell" (and don't leave any coins on exchanges that you aren't *prepared to lose*).

With CIYAM anyone can create 100% generated C++ web applications in literally minutes.

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zhangweiwu
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April 10, 2014, 09:54:24 AM
 #90

xiexie zhangweiwu!

Really, thank you for all the information you give us.
It makes a lot of sense and means the dip we saw today might just be the beginning.

If you are patient enough to followed my advice and waited till now, my understanding is that market price has consumed negative news and negative expectation. The Chinese saga is close to an end. More bad news from Chinese government are expected but market price pretty much contained it. There will be no dip in price by 15th April unless there are bad news not from China's government.

I think, if you want to buy, now is about the time. The chance of a further dip rely on a Chinese major exchange's insolvency, most investors shouldn't wait for that kind of bad news.

P.S. I predicted the fiasco 9th Jan 2014: it will not declare a war against bitcoin but cripple bitcoin operations in China. So there are a certain level of confidence in me.

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
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