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[Poker Player]

Based on the theory of cyclicality, then the absolute market bottom comes every 4 years, and at the same time, bitcoin loses about 85% of its value after an explosive bullrun. In this cycle, 85% of the lost value from the last ATH is right at the ~$10,000 mark.

What do you think is the absolute bottom of the current bearish cycle?

Those pattern-repeat theories in the brief history of Bitcoin work until they stop working. There were also many such theories saying we were going to hit minimum $100k last year.

I do think it's possible that we could go down I don't know if to $10k but below $17k, not based on some chart repeats, but because of events in the world and in the economy that may influence that.

Of course for me the absolute bottom would be around $10k, followed by a clear bounce upwards, as many investors would see that price as a bargain and buy at that price.

[Zlantann]

Yeah, $10,000+ if ever we will experience the around -85% loss from its all-time-high.
But my hope is the 2013 drop, which is not reached above -80%.
For me, the loss we experience right now which is already -73% is already huge. Today is already different from the past, volume and other companies are already here, and trading volume is already huge right now which to me is really different from the previous bear market.

As a new investor in Bitcoin, I tend to take inspiration from older investors that are optimistic. I know the market has no respect for courage or loyalty but that's what keeps me going. Although I am prepared for they worst but I am very optimistic that Bitcoin would not fall below $15,000. All the predictions are just based on untested speculations that might fail due to unforeseen occurrence or happening. For the past four days Bitcoin has been strong and holding a steady position. It is possible that we are close or have reached the end of the bearish market.       

[Etranger]

Are you ready to see $10,000 Bitcoin this year or early next year? I read some communities on the Internet and most of them are sure that the price of $17,600 is a very cruel fall and a fall even deeper can provoke a loss of faith in bitcoin altogether (funny phrase). But those same people have apparently never analyzed bitcoin historical data. In this capitulation event, bitcoin only fell (I don't know if it's appropriate to say this when it comes to such a loss in value ) by 73%.

If you look at the historical events of capitulation, whether it was 2013 or 2017, then Bitcoin steadily lost ~ 85% of its value, after which a renaissance began, and the market entered a recovery phase.



Based on the theory of cyclicality, then the absolute market bottom comes every 4 years, and at the same time, bitcoin loses about 85% of its value after an explosive bullrun. In this cycle, 85% of the lost value from the last ATH is right at the ~$10,000 mark.

What do you think is the absolute bottom of the current bearish cycle?

What do you think about the price in 2023? Can we expact it goes to new ATH at 90000 - 100000? Could you please also explain in more details about this 4-year cycle? When exactly the renaissance begins - straight after 85% loss? And how does it correlate with the fact that mostly BTC price in the end of prety every year is higher that in the beggining? For example in the beggining of 2019 it was $3700, of 2020 - $7200, of 2021 - $31500, of 2022 - $46300?

[Etranger]

What do you think about the price in 2023? Can we expact it goes to new ATH at 90000 - 100000?

The new ATH, in my opinion, should be expected no earlier than 2024-2025.

Does it mean that now is the moment to enter long-term positions? To buy and hold for several years till 2024-2025?

And what price will be the new ATH in your opinion? For example, the previous one was near 70000 (in 2021), the one before previous was around 20000 (2017). This is a 3.5 times growth. Can we then expact 245000 in 2-3 years?

[tn211]

I am pessimistic but 10k seems to be too low man. Sure nobody knows what is going to happen.
But take in effect that there is very strong support in the 18k region. And yes i bet many will do some extra shopping when btc goes to 14k.

I am ready for 10k, but I will be buying at 14k.

[ImThour]

I really appreciate this chart and it surely makes some sense. However, the Price might not be able to break below $10,000 just because the number of buy orders at that price is insane.
Maybe we can make a wick below $10k but a 1H candle closing is not possible. Let's see what happens, no one can predict it though.

[wxa7115]

I really appreciate this chart and it surely makes some sense. However, the Price might not be able to break below $10,000 just because the number of buy orders at that price is insane.
Maybe we can make a wick below $10k but a 1H candle closing is not possible. Let's see what happens, no one can predict it though.

I think 10k is probably as close as predicting the bottom as we could get, during the previous bull run we went from 19k to 3k, a crash of roughly 85% from the all time high, and a crash from 69k to 10k is a crash of roughly 85% as well.

So it is a price that is not outside of what it is possible, but I would not expect the price to remain there for too long as every single smart investor will soon realize the significance of that price and they will use a great deal of the money they will have available at the time and buy all the bitcoin they can.

[dragonvslinux]

I really appreciate this chart and it surely makes some sense. However, the Price might not be able to break below $10,000 just because the number of buy orders at that price is insane.
Maybe we can make a wick below $10k but a 1H candle closing is not possible. Let's see what happens, no one can predict it though.

I think 10k is probably as close as predicting the bottom as we could get, during the previous bull run we went from 19k to 3k, a crash of roughly 85% from the all time high, and a crash from 69k to 10k is a crash of roughly 85% as well.

Personally I wouldn't consider $10K within the context of a 85% retracement, or equivalent to any other price in the past decade, because in fact it's just $200 above the 10 Year MA. I don't think long-term investors would be buying it because it's 85% from ATH, they'd be buying it because out of 12 years of price history, a 10 Year MA would be about as good a discount as it get's (as long as you don't end up with a decade long bear market). Even $12K is an 8-year average price, while $16K is a 6-year average. I think these are the sort of references which will become more relevant from % from ATH personally.

[Xeon]

You missed 1 zero there Op as I don't think we are going to hit 10k but 100k, that is for sure since the end for this bear market is near. Many are ready to see bitcoin at higher levels because they already bought during this crypto winter and by that, they don't want to see more drops. It is also boring already although there might be a few percent that will be scared thinking that bitcoin is really coming to an end. 

the last time I bought Bitcoin is when the price is around $ 24700, many experts believe that at that time it was the lowest price, but the price continued to drop Although now it rises again, if one day the price drops below $ 10k, of course I'm ready, the first thing is when the price is $ 15k then I will sell 75% My Bitcoin.

Why will you sell at 15k when you bought at 24.7k? I think you will only suffer a loss with that however I think many others are doing that strategy but for me, I rather use a different type of money and not the money that I will get when I sell at a loss.

[teramit]

after seeing 70k i am waiting it in 1-2 year but not exactly 10k, 12k is enough for me with this price and volume it will be a great entry point

[Wong Gendheng]

The reality is difficult if the price of Bitcoin returns to $ 10K, and people will agree that the 4 -year trend will be repeated again, many say that the current Bitcoin price is easily controlled, and this is what makes us must always be vigilant, but if the price of $ 10k occurs Then I will buy more and save for the long term.

[Tony116]

The reality is difficult if the price of Bitcoin returns to $ 10K, and people will agree that the 4 -year trend will be repeated again, many say that the current Bitcoin price is easily controlled, and this is what makes us must always be vigilant, but if the price of $ 10k occurs Then I will buy more and save for the long term.

It is  unlikely that it will happen, but it does not mean it is impossible to happen. In my prediction, bitcoin will drop below 17k, but not immediately. It will probably take 1 to 2 months for my target price to reach 15k. If bitcoin gets to 15k, I'll buy a bunch.

When Bitcoin drops to $10,000, there will be extreme panic, and it's a one-of-a-kind opportunity for those who are patient enough to wait until it drops.

[Paul Pogba]

Anything can happen, even though the bitcoin price is rising more than 7% in 4 hours but the price can drop in a short time and has dropped more than 10% within 5 hours, if later the bitcoin price is $10k then I have prepared money to buy and then save in paper wallet, it doesn't matter how long it takes to go up but I'm optimistic the market will rise again.

[justdimin]

You missed 1 zero there Op as I don't think we are going to hit 10k but 100k, that is for sure since the end for this bear market is near. Many are ready to see bitcoin at higher levels because they already bought during this crypto winter and by that, they don't want to see more drops. It is also boring already although there might be a few percent that will be scared thinking that bitcoin is really coming to an end. 

There will always be some sort of people who will think that bitcoin will go to zero, or in this case 10k. Sure it "could" technically speaking, but that doesn't mean that it will. All you have to do is just get things under control during this market, make it stabilize, and then when the time comes the price will skyrocket like crazy.

People who are impatient and can't wait for it to go up, will end up saying that bitcoin will go down, bitcoin is dying, bitcoin is a scam and many things like that. If you know what bitcoin is all about, you would know that it won't do any of those, but that's fine, you do not have to believe any of this at all.

[YOSHIE]

Based on the theory of cyclicality, then the absolute market bottom comes every 4 years, and at the same time, bitcoin loses about 85% of its value after an explosive bullrun. In this cycle, 85% of the lost value from the last ATH is right at the ~$10,000 mark.

I expect further from the existing cycle, expectation $8000, two thousand lower than expected, at least.

I had a fiasco when Bitcoin was at $6000 a few years ago, I looked and I didn't do anything about it, the new ATH kept going up to $60k, experience is the teacher of everything, well, if Bitcoin is in the $10k position, I'll hold on tight until a new ATH happens, no matter how many years it will be, i don't want to fail the umpteenth time, i'm ready for a $10k Bitcoin cycle, I'm ready to risk.

[proudhon]

I know for certain that the price will go below $10k and there won't ever be an ATH again. We've witnessed the top, and we're on the other side of it forever now.

[Pesona1]

Based on the theory of cyclicality, then the absolute market bottom comes every 4 years, and at the same time, bitcoin loses about 85% of its value after an explosive bullrun. In this cycle, 85% of the lost value from the last ATH is right at the ~$10,000 mark.

Although the possibility of a price decline of up to $ 10K could occur, but I believe that bitcoin will continue to increase when the negative issues like now end, so I personally would prefer to hold it even though it takes quite a long time,because I believe if bitcoin has strong fundamentals and it will not be difficult for bitcoin to be able to reach its highest price again.

[ShowOff]

Although the possibility of a price decline of up to $ 10K could occur, but I believe that bitcoin will continue to increase when the negative issues like now end, so I personally would prefer to hold it even though it takes quite a long time,because I believe if bitcoin has strong fundamentals and it will not be difficult for bitcoin to be able to reach its highest price again.

The volatility is certain, but we all can't pinpoint exactly where the bottom will actually stop. The possibility of a price drop to $10K is possible if we analyze the chart, but still we are only playing between two possibilities - up or down.

If you are sure to be a long term holder then I can probably advise you to buy any dip as I think it is a very good option. But of course you'll be fine if you actually just want to hold it in without wanting to accumulation.

[suzanne5223]

I know for certain that the price will go below $10k and there won't ever be an ATH again.

If the price of Bitcoin will possibly goes below $10K, the last bottom price will be $6878 because the historical price of BTC bear shows that the max dump BTC market has experienced is 90% and if it does happen it will be in a flash but I don't see that happen though due to a lot of whales and common people who are waiting for the bottom price.

We've witnessed the top, and we're on the other side of it forever now.

If you're talking about $68,789.63 to be the last ATH price of BTC when you can forever. You're wrong because we haven't witnessed the last ATH price of BTC.

[FatFork]

I know for certain that the price will go below $10k and there won't ever be an ATH again. We've witnessed the top, and we're on the other side of it forever now.

Now, that's wishful thinking! But the reality is that the price will be back there in a couple of months or so. It always comes back. That's the best part.