I have some faith in this data model and on-chain analysis of BTC, Let's see how good was this data model after 7 years maybe!
Please do not race much to prove this model right/wrong, my main intention was to get the accuracy & reliability of such data for Bitcoin and then compare it with the on-chain analysis and not get people called "MAD" for believing/observing this kind of data.
Nobody is right, only time will tell.
I'm with you on this.
It's just macro events that have made it skewed a bit...
Still have faith in S2F
I haven't completely ruled out the significance of S2F either, even if I don't completely understand the maths/science, I can still see it's relevance in relation to price.
As far as I can tell,
price successfully reached it's so-called "fair value" in November 2021. The reason so many people are resentful about this model is because price didn't go significantly above it's fair value, as has been the case in previous bull markets, and clearly didn't get the memo that Bitcoin doesn't do refunds or guarantees. Despite some wild monthly predictions from Plan B, that appeared to be very much disregarding of his own model (that doesn't make monthly predictions, only estimates of a "fair price"), the projection of a fair value for Bitcoin by next halving in May 2024 as $74K appears realistic to me still, even if price remains below this level by the time of the halving. Whether price reaches $700K by 2028 is another question though... but still a couple of years to go at least to see if this model remains relevant or not.
In reality it shouldn't be surprising that Bitcoin didn't go beyond it's fair value in last years bull market, as with numerous technical/fundamental indicators/models now existing, in comparison to 2017 or 2013 when there were few to none, it largely prevented many from making the mistake of buying into Bitcoin when it is over-valued, over-bought, or entering bubble territory (as has previously been the case).
