Is Bitcoin's price "basically a fire sale"?

[GeorgeJohn]

No chart, price model, or price in general can dictate if bitcoin has topped, bottomed, or any other sort of "signal". We can use such chart as information on how high or how low bitcoin went, but I don't think we should be making decisions solely based on it.

you are right. So many of this chart bitcoiner present here, some times they miss interpret some certain chart. Actually mainly chart they do represent is directly or basically relate with your expectations in quote. It made me not to compromise to certain chart or concur on them because of wrong interpretation. It's misconception between price analyze who normally comes to conclusion on what is tactically sure.

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[Nrcewker]

That's the main thing we are trying to make people understand about it.
In this bear market, many people are fearing, and becoming panic. For this they are selling their Bitcoins in such a low price.
They need to understand the fact that Bitcoins will eventually grow, but it will take time.
Due to the production of Bitcoins are limited, it will become rare as the time passes and hence it will be very valuable.
So we can consider this time period as a fire and flash sale. In this period we need to buy as much Bitcoins as we can.
Hope everyone understands the situation and acts accordingly.

[fabiorem]

The StF model have failed back in 2020, due to legitimation of bitcoin, a process which started in 2017.
Legitimation is a process in which something disruptive to the financial status quo is turned into a Wall Street asset, being subjected to paper speculation (eg, ETFs).
Many maximalists asked for legitimation years ago, arguing this would bring "adoption" to crypto. It did bring adoption, but by the wrong people, the very people bitcoin wanted to get away from.
Moving goal posts forward will not work for the StF model. It was doomed after the covid dip. Currently the price is at the mercy of the global financial markets. If bitcoin was not legitimate, price would be above 50k. Since it is, price is going to 5k.

[Mpamaegbu]

I rather buy, then price dips; than I didn't buy and price starts soaring. I will keep hitting myself for missing an opportunity. Once I buy I know there's no way I'm going to sell in loss. That's the kind of mindset I've come to develop about Bitcoin. It hasn't disappointed in that regard.

In this bear market, many people are fearing, and becoming panic. For this they are selling their Bitcoins in such a low price.

These paper hands will soon understand how unwise the decision they're taking now by selling off in panic are like others before them. They too will definitely learn.

[Finestream]

This kind of chart is one of the many reasons why the current price level of Bitcoin is a good buy, if you also take a look at the Fear and Greed index, it is still showing that good to buy too.
To be honest, there are still a lot of people who are afraid and we can't blame them. Even though we will say that it's in the sale, we cannot do something.

The current market certainly shows good reasons to buy, and with bitcoin pricing which is very low and affordable, which is indeed on a sale creates great opportunities for everyone to maximize their purchase with bitcoin. Lot of investors have finally enter the market and eventually buy the whole bitcoin, while others are still in fears and panic that made them miss another chance to invest in the market and fail to purchase a lot of bitcoin.

[STT]

Cautious buy at present seems quite fair.   Today wider markets have been very negative, I think possibly they do recover over this week before we later find their resolved direction but in context of that mass sale BTC has done very well.   


Charts should be as simple as possible is my take, it relates to consensus and quite simply we have a series of higher lows here [put a ruler on the bottom prices].   Its only short term and can be wiped out but a rally is fair game.   Above blue line or weekly average I think BTC can develop some positivity.   It would be nice to see BTC outshine every other asset this week at least tbh

[dragonvslinux]

Charts should be as simple as possible is my take, it relates to consensus and quite simply we have a series of higher lows here [put a ruler on the bottom prices].

While I agree there are higher lows formed in the short-term, there are also lower highs formed (both short-term and long-term, no ruler needed). So while I do appreciate simplistic technical analysis as being one of the purest forms of trend analysis, it would be over-simplifying to say there are higher lows without referencing the lower highs. In this basic sense, between $19K and $21K, price remains neutral nothing else.

Again sticking with the simplistic TA, price remains in a 6 month long downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, despite the possibility for a relief rally to the upside within a longer-term bear market.

Its only short term and can be wiped out but a rally is fair game.   Above blue line or weekly average I think BTC can develop some positivity.  

Since $20K, a rally has always been fair game imo. The only question is when, and if if not soon then at what price.

[proudhon]

I've already run several math and science models and this is the most likely future:

[Fundamentals Of]

I consider the current price a fire sale. But there's no assurance that the Bitcoin rainbow chart will remain accurate. As with the rest of the patterns, they're all accurate until they're proven otherwise. There have been precedents of Bitcoin patterns being relevant for some time only to end up wrong at some point, S2F being probably the most popular among them. So not relying too much on those patterns now but I still consider purchases under $20,000 a good decision.

[fzkto]

I also thought recently that there was a sale going on and a good opportunity to buy cheap bitcoin. But now I'm beginning to doubt that because there are global financial changes happening in the world that didn't exist before. It seems to me that this time the fall might surprise absolutely everyone and that the crash of 2020 might be repeated. But so far the history of bitcoin has not shown such a fall, so everyone is using the usual patterns.

[Eternad]

I've already run several math and science models and this is the most likely future:

Atleast provide the math dude. 

Kidding aside, That Bitcoin Rainbow is obviously not realistic at all and just form through the imaginative mind of Bitcoin maximalist and shillers on social media which is in deep stress right now. The insane prediction above 100K is not realistic and healthy at all for Bitcoin because it means that everyone is holding at that time before Bitcoin moves at that price direction, Just like a bubble that waiting to be pop. I will not believe it unless billionaires start to invest on it just like what Elon Musk did or Blackrock.

[Wilhelm]

I've already run several math and science models and this is the most likely future:

Atleast provide the math dude.  

Kidding aside, That Bitcoin Rainbow is obviously not realistic at all and just form through the imaginative mind of Bitcoin maximalist and shillers on social media which is in deep stress right now. The insane prediction above 100K is not realistic and healthy at all for Bitcoin because it means that everyone is holding at that time before Bitcoin moves at that price direction, Just like a bubble that waiting to be pop. I will not believe it unless billionaires start to invest on it just like what Elon Musk did or Blackrock.

Well ETFs are opening up, Europe just got one, Canada has one, USA is sueing the SEC to get one...
These tools are needed for Wallstreet money to enter the space.

Bitcoin isn't a bubble, the 19999 shitcoins probably are but Bitcoin is most likely here to stay.

[Silberman]

No chart, price model, or price in general can dictate if bitcoin has topped, bottomed, or any other sort of "signal". We can use such chart as information on how high or how low bitcoin went, but I don't think we should be making decisions solely based on it.

It is because of this that trading is not only a science but an art, we cannot just take a look at the numbers and then take a decisions based on them, and while this is better than what the majority of the traders do, those which are the best also try to consider other factors when taking their investment or trading decisions, the chart presented is an useful one but I think there is still potential for the price of bitcoin to go lower, however the current price is a good starting point for a DCA strategy.

[OgNasty]

I'm not sure I'd say it's a fire sale.  This is the level that seemed obvious we would fall to when looking at a chart of the price.  I think a fire sale would be a price under $10K.  Not saying now isn't a good time to be buying...  I'm sure we're close to the bottom.  Like pretty much everyone else I'm seeing $13K as a likely bottom, but I'm also seeing a rise to new highs once that is behind us and things like the gox coins aren't hanging over the market.  So don't go mortgaging the house Saylor style to buy BTC just yet, but do go ahead and start growing your stack and getting your plan in place going forward.

[justdimin]

No chart, price model, or price in general can dictate if bitcoin has topped, bottomed, or any other sort of "signal". We can use such chart as information on how high or how low bitcoin went, but I don't think we should be making decisions solely based on it.

It is because of this that trading is not only a science but an art, we cannot just take a look at the numbers and then take a decisions based on them, and while this is better than what the majority of the traders do those which are the best also try to consider other factors when taking their investment or trading decisions, the chart presented is an useful one but I think there is still potential for the price of bitcoin to go lower, however the current price is a good starting point for a DCA strategy.

That "art" part is a bit wobbly though, and that's kind of the trouble. The science part is about the data, and you could make calculations based on that and it wouldn't be too hard. But, the part where it is art becomes a bit harder and harder every year. This is why I feel like it's not going to be that easy to convince people to stop what they are doing with the data part, and start focusing on the art part as well.

I personally do a long term investment and I have no headaches because of it. However, when I trade, which is a small time thing for me, I still focus solely on the data and yes sometimes I am wrong but that is worth it, much better than just winging it.

[STT]

To state the BTC price stays higher pricing for a period of 9 years and we last until 2025 trading every day as we have previous is actually still bullish, exceptional optimism for a doom and gloomer.   But then it goes to zero so be scared, eventually the sun explodes and Yellowstone volcano is due any day yet we continue.   If BTC is fine till 2025 I think thats alot more bullish then the worst case scenario, you are lacking imagination of all possible events.   Just a simple EMP event would be enough, totally natural and many other situations BTC is surely challenged (worse then now).
   The main question is why 2025, dollar has accumulated value in 2025 despite its debt and deficits, lagging inflation for 3 years yet appreciates anyway.  Perhaps maybe they default on bonds but respect paper doesnt make sense but a possible scenario and I can see BTC does tank with that deflationary event.
  The trajectory for the future is most likely similar to the past with ever increasing volatility.

[Captain Corporate]

There is no doubt its a firesale right now. Get as much of it as you can, thsi si going to be like getting the collection item of a great product, in a pawn shop that doesn't know what they are dealing with. Get it now, at this price, when it is basically low enough to say that it shouldn't be, and when the price recovers which we all know it will, you will be able to make a ton of profit from it. All the people who buy from here, will be able to say that they did a great job and count their profits, all the people who sold now and call it a dead thing, will regret it in a year or two and wish that they bought it.

[adzino]

I would say every dip is a fire sale, but don't make investment based on those charts or assumptions. You can never predict what is going to happen next. So don't go all in hoping that the exact same thing will happen. You might end up losing everything. Instead invest whatever you can afford to lose. If you don't have any spare money lying around, then don't invest. Just keep holding whatever you invested. You don't lose anything as long as you don't sell.

People assumed the price will reach 100k last year based on trends and charts. That didn't happen, did it?

[pooya87]

I believe that we are still following the same upward trend as before that this is still a "fire sale" considering how much below the bitcoin intrinsic value we currently are.

The problem is that there are always external factors that affect the market and can push this trend out of its natural course like the 2020 COVID pandemic and its effects on the global economy or the current ongoing conflict between East and West that had a significant effect mostly on Western economy and partly in Eastern economy.

Add to that all the market manipulation, panic sells, FUD, ... and you should start seeing the market more clearly.

[xSkylarx]

This could be the last chance to see it at its current price. For me this is really the best time to buy bitcoin because next bottom of market cycles would be much higher if we are going to base bitcoin's historical corrections. We are just in early phase of this bear market so we have a lot of time to accumulate until the next cycle.

I'm preparing for the price to go deeper at this point because everyone is thinking this is not the bottom yet considering also the global crisis that we experience now.