Q2 Bitcoin Close -56%

[dragonvslinux]

Current look at Bitcoin 3 Month chart. Worst Quarter since Q3 2011 with -56%. Price closed just above the 20 MA @ $18,840 (60 Month MA or 5 Year MA). No wonder so many people are bearish right now...



However based on this moving average Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend. It was the closest % close to this MA in Bitcoin's history, but otherwise closed above it and just under $20K. Many will think this is pure hopium I imagine, but until this MA is broken, then currently price is in no worse situation than it was in March 2020 when it was previously at a 5 Year average.

Many are still waiting for $10K to $14K prices, which I can understand based on how bearish the market and economic environment currently is. I also think it'll happen if $17.5K is broken.

But what happens if those prices never arrive?

[1714958181]

1714958181

[1714958181]

1714958181

[1714958181]

1714958181

[1714958181]

1714958181

[ImThour]

I voted for a similar one because a closing below 200 MA is really interesting in terms of monthly and weekly, both.
June 2022 is the month in the history of Bitcoin to lose the highest % of the price, which does bring some relief for the short term but doesn't change the long-term perspective or EOY perspective for most of the traders.

We can only speculate, reality will hit us within 2 quarters. 

[jackg]

But what happens if those prices never arrive?

I think what happens next will probably depend on what happens with eth and what happens with the overall economic outlook. The S&P has also had it's worst spring (it might be overall) quarter close in 50 years according to the ft so I think there might be a comparison there too - I got the notification yesterday on that.

I could see crypto falling after a long stagnation too (or gradual movements either up or down) which could present a bull trap - I think we'll decline in August when eth staking gets unlocked and drives inflation.

[Welsh]

Many are still waiting for $10K to $14K prices, which I can understand based on how bearish the market and economic environment currently is. I also think it'll happen if $17.5K is broken.

Global recession incoming, will either mean people are very bearish for a long time, since they're basically penny grabbing, and trying to survive or the opposite will happen; people will look to escape inflation, and the problems of fiat, and therefore look for an alternative since they've lost faith in the current money system.

I don't know what's more likely, but if I were to haveth a guess it would be the former, since it takes a special time of person, usually those that don't mind the risk to invest in something when they might not be guaranteed income every month with mass job losses.

[m2017]

Many are still waiting for $10K to $14K prices, which I can understand based on how bearish the market and economic environment currently is. I also think it'll happen if $17.5K is broken.

Global recession incoming, will either mean people are very bearish for a long time, since they're basically penny grabbing, and trying to survive or the opposite will happen; people will look to escape inflation, and the problems of fiat, and therefore look for an alternative since they've lost faith in the current money system.

I don't know what's more likely, but if I were to haveth a guess it would be the former, since it takes a special time of person, usually those that don't mind the risk to invest in something when they might not be guaranteed income every month with mass job losses.

Most likely, people will go into saving mode and beware of spending money on bitcoin, which cost ~$69k, and now only ~$20k (the price may have been different at that time). This is what will repel new investors. It's no news to anyone that people only start looking at the bitcoin when it grows. Reverse processes and bear markets don't attract them. Therefore, if a global recession starts, then in my opinion, we will see a very protracted bear market.

During crises and recessions, most people are concerned about how to earn something, not how to save their money. Theoretically, it would be interesting to see how the global recession will affect bitcoin. In practice, this will be very little pleasant.

[Tomohisa]

I want to vote for a crab market. Price going to hover over this $20k wall for quite some time, maybe dip to $17k like you said but still, a crab market it is. Too many people were anticipant it will go to $10k or around that. But unless some really bad news happens or FED stupid enough to crash the stock market, it will be hard to meet that price mark cause strong amount of buy orders there. Plenty of hedge funds are still DCA in crypto too.

[Welsh]

During crises and recessions, most people are concerned about how to earn something, not how to save their money.

I'm not sure, usually you see people trying to cut down. Super market branded food sells more, people look to share cars to work, and people basically look to cut down on celebrations, and treats. So, I do think it's a combination of both. However, most people aren't thinking about investments during this time, due to the risky nature. I mean, investing in Bitcoin is a risky investment during times where you might not have a steady income. Since, as we know recessions usually mean mass redundancies, and job losses. I already know people who have been told they're being made redundant at the end of the year. So, it's already happening.

I think we'll see those with a bit of a buffer investing in Bitcoin during the recession, but those strapped for cash will be looking to stretch their penny further than before. This basically doesn't help Bitcoin much from a supply, and demand viewpoint, and I do think this will effect the price, and hence we won't be seeing any major uptrend in the next year.

I don't even know how long this recession is going to last, we'll likely be feeling the effects of it for years. There's an argument that recessions are never not felt, and they compound on one another.

[edgycorner]

I would suggest any investor to buy high-quality solid stocks instead of a cryptocurrency.
Like coca-cola https://i.imgur.com/T0HrBPl.png
Things may get real messy, real quick. If it does happen then coca-cola won't be that exposed.
I can't say the same for bitcoin. It's very susceptible to macrochanges. It won't just stop at 14k or 10k, there will be no brakes this time

It will go down imo, but if you really want to invest somewhere then I would suggest high-quality stocks as mentioned above^

[sheenshane]

Sorry but I didn't follow your Q2 Bitcoin prediction, can link it down here?

For Q3, I didn't see any sign of a green market, it could be the price will drop more because of the global recession, and not only crypto was experiencing this but also the stock market.  But I'm hoping that I have a wrong interpretation of the market condition, the market is still unpredictable and it could be every now and then the market will flip up and it could be the bull market will begin.

All I can say, there's a struggle that the market has nowadays and it will not recover during this year, it could be next year I guess.

[bittraffic]

5/8 Voted Down. Some panicked when the price plummeted down to $17800 and then they were not hoping the price going below that for they wanted to get a discount. Understandably its what we all want but I'm seeing the price may just spike in the coming weeks. The market will make them wait for this plunge. If the market disappoints them for not going back to $17800, they will most likely just going to buy at $20000.

[adaseb]

This was not only the worse quarter it was the worst month ever for Bitcoin. It’s crazy how about a month ago, $30K seemed low and we all wanted $40K. And now $20K seems low and we want $30K. And even if we get $30K it will most likely be strong resistance and head back down.

I have a feeling that Q3 will most likely be flat or slightly negative. Don’t think anything major will develop. But q4 should have huge moves in either direction, just don’t know which one yet.

[STT]

All scenarios tested is most likely and the most obvious is just sideways in conclusion after spikes up and down.   People dont like sideways but add time and ultimately it means we do go upwards, its just a bit boring and wears out some especially those relying on leverage.   Anyone who trades on sugar highs and hype will find they lose more then they gain in this situation I guess because nobody is especially correct when we can move either direction but in no direction reliably.
  Its maybe ironic but overreaction means the low prices become unreliable and in effect cheap, when that idea becomes clear I dont but I think this whole year is enough space to work it out.   2018 was probably the year where people got really increasingly negative and it was with rising Dollar index so kinda like now.
  I do have my doubts on Dollar keeping its gains, anyway I wanted to say summer at the very least being slow and bare is on schedule and then sept/oct autumn there is turbulence and thats the earliest possible solid positive that sticks but my guess for 2022 was always consolidation after gains.  Its been a bit more negative but basically thats what we are doing imo

[Baofeng]

I guess the worst is yet to come, this bear market is very long, and we are just in the beginning. So we might have to endure more downside later and yeah, $10k-$14k will definitely be the next lowest low.

As others said, the global recession, it is the main factor that will affect all markets and all businesses as well. So it will be negative throughout this year and the next. Might sound be a doom and gloom, but it is what it is and everyone should be prepared. If the opportunity opens up for a $10k-$14k, then good opportunity.

[buwaytress]

Couldn't find the piece of news, but it's supposed to be the worst half in history (short one of course)... and US stock market's worst half since the 1970s. I hate to say correlation again but it's getting harder to ignore that.

I definitely think 17.5k will break and that's just because people borrowing will tire of waiting and paying interest, slow rate of attrition maybe but we'll probably see a few more big names release all their BTC.

[mu_enrico]

19k is a strong support tho, the previous 2017 ATH, so if it's broken, the effect could be massive. I've read somewhere that the BTC price never went down below previous ATH. $17k means it's definitely broken, and will go much lower, even <$10k is possible imo.

This is the impact of big ponzies: terra, celsius, 3ac, etc. quite alarming since in the last bear market I only remember Bitconnect that was big enough.

[fzkto]

I have also heard that this is the worst quarterly drop in bitcoin history, but even without that many previous patterns have been broken. For example the worst RSI value, the highest number of consecutive red weeks, being below 200-MA. Dropping below the previous ATH. I think that if you look for reasons, you can find something else. Last time the terrible year was considered 2020, now it is 2022.

[dragonvslinux]

Sorry but I didn't follow your Q2 Bitcoin prediction, can link it down here?

I didn't make a prediction of Q2, nor making one for Q3, just providing the statistical data here rather than technical analysis predictions.

I'm otherwise remaining neutral, slightly bearish since $20K has been turned into resistance, but otherwise neutral. Mainly that if $19K support breaks I'd expect to see price slide down to $16K, otherwise likely to the $10K to $14K area as I explained in the post. Otherwise if $23K / 200WMA would be reclaimed, then a rally to $25K to $30K, then see if the 200 WMA can become support or not and re-evaluate.

This was not only the worse quarter it was the worst month ever for Bitcoin.

It was the worst quarter since Q3 2011 (-68%) and worst month since August 2011 (-38.45%), but none the less the worst in over a decade.

Couldn't find the piece of news, but it's supposed to be the worst half in history (short one of course)...

Worst half since second half of 2011.

[Husires]

During the third quarter, inflation will be announced as a global problem, and therefore we may see a repetition of what happened with the Corona virus, when prices fell sharply in March, but it quickly gained momentum during the end of the world, so perhaps the fourth quarter will be a little optimistic, but it is difficult to find increases, especially since all the news is negative.

All these variables will strongly affect the short term, and not all technical indicators may succeed in explaining this, but in the long run, the result is the same.

[rhomelmabini]

Longer timeframe for longer term I say. Did we go down the 3M 20EMA before? If it goes down then I'd say we get more down in the coming months. If those prices never came, it's always a bad thing for those that are anxious and good thing for those who are sniping to buy at a lower price. The DCA is the way.

[dragonvslinux]

Longer timeframe for longer term I say. Did we go down the 3M 20EMA before? If it goes down then I'd say we get more down in the coming months.

We wicked below it in only once before in Q1 2020, as we have done so in Q2 2022, but never closed below it. Hence I also agree, below this level could see another red quarter, or at least much lower prices.

If those prices never came, it's always a bad thing for those that are anxious and good thing for those who are sniping to buy at a lower price. The DCA is the way.

This is also what I'm acknowledging. Price hasn't yet gone beyond it's previous capitulation levels (at least based on long-term MAs), even if it hasn't capitulated as far by % wise or based on other metrics such as net unrealised profit & loss (NUPL). There are enough arguments that price has already capitulated far enough, while there are other metrics to suggest the capitulation hasn't fully occurred yet.

If price were to reverse from current prices and close above the 200 WMA, it could generate a lot of buying pressure between $25K from $30K from investors who were waiting on the sidelines for $10 to $15K. Personally, while I'm a fan of DCA, for any lump sum buying, I'd prefer to be a buyer with confirmation of the 200 WMA as support around $24K, or buying capitulation around $12K, as opposed to buying $19K.