Finding value bets

[dothebeats]

For me, a bet where I am getting decent returns on a bet that is most probably about to win would be a value bet.
For example if I am placing a bet where I know that I would most probably win this bet and if the returns are over 1.5x times then I would consider it as a value bet.
The chances of winning the bet should be at least over 85% in this case. I have played such bets few times and won in most of the cases.

If that is your definition of a value bet without looking at the current news on the teams that are participating then you're screwed in the long run.

There are tons of favorites in sportsbetting that ended up losing to a relatively weaker team just because a key player is not playing. Just the NBA for example. A lot of us know that the Golden State Warriors are capable of defeating any teams in the league if they are complete even though they are not well-rested. If for example one of their key players cannot attend, their odds of winning the match is still the same in most cases. When matched with a relatively weaker team but with complete players, this team can still crumble, as their rotations are not the same compared to when they're complete.

It's important to look at the current news on the teams rather than the numbers and odds given by the bookies alone. This makes your bet more valuable as you know some of the things that could potentially ruin your bet.

[Fortify]

Last night, Djokovic, one of the best tennis players on grass out there (potentially he is the favorite to win in Wimbledon) - had odds of 1.25 at peak against Timmy, after Timmy won one set.
Would you see that 1.25 as a value bet or not?

What if a tennis player in Wimbledon or some other big tournament, quickly goes 40-0 and you have him @ 1.10 to win the game (not the match, just that 40-0 game) - can this be a value bet?

What about a basketball match, the total line is 180.5 and the game in live goes 150.5 - is it worth taking the "over" because the line has dropped 30 points below the original line?

How do you define value in general?

Unless you're crunching huge amounts of information like the casinos then at best you'll end up making an "educated guess". If you're keeping track of your betting and doing analysis, maybe over a few years you could determine that your judgements on value are accurate - because otherwise variance might bring your profit back down to zero on short timescales. Honestly you'd think things like a team being two goals up in a football match with 5 minutes to go a sure fire winner, but I've seen enough reversals of fortune to know it's not a long term winner.

[Boristhecat]

The odd is decent enough if you can repeat it over and over. You can earn huge with your initial capital. Though there's no assurance that you do it in every bet that you made, the chance to lose is still there even if you think the percentage of your chance is over 85%, there's still something that will ruined your pick and lead you to lose your money.

Could you express this definition in numbers? You can repeat a bet with odds of 1.01 a huge number of times, but at the same time it remains unprofitable if the casino/bookmaker has an advantage. As for subjective assessments of the probability of outcomes, they are important, but at a distance, given that the better sometimes makes mistakes, sometimes the casino makes mistakes, they lose their meaning.
By the way, you can repeat bets again and again, even with high odds if you use a small percentage of the deposit to bet. If you go all-in all the time, you will lose your deposit at any odds.

[ethereumhunter]

Unless you're crunching huge amounts of information like the casinos then at best you'll end up making an "educated guess". If you're keeping track of your betting and doing analysis, maybe over a few years you could determine that your judgements on value are accurate - because otherwise variance might bring your profit back down to zero on short timescales. Honestly you'd think things like a team being two goals up in a football match with 5 minutes to go a sure fire winner, but I've seen enough reversals of fortune to know it's not a long term winner.

From there, the analysis we do will determine the selection of the team that has the opportunity to win in that match. Maybe when doing analysis, we can see how the history of the team we are analyzing is so we can know whether the team deserves to be chosen or whether we have to look for another team with a bigger chance of winning. However, we also have to predict a reversal of a team that looks unseeded in one match because it could even surprise us and beat the team we previously chose. It's really difficult if we don't know how to choose a good team.

[carlisle1]

Unless you're crunching huge amounts of information like the casinos then at best you'll end up making an "educated guess". If you're keeping track of your betting and doing analysis, maybe over a few years you could determine that your judgements on value are accurate - because otherwise variance might bring your profit back down to zero on short timescales. Honestly you'd think things like a team being two goals up in a football match with 5 minutes to go a sure fire winner, but I've seen enough reversals of fortune to know it's not a long term winner.

From there, the analysis we do will determine the selection of the team that has the opportunity to win in that match. Maybe when doing analysis, we can see how the history of the team we are analyzing is so we can know whether the team deserves to be chosen or whether we have to look for another team with a bigger chance of winning. However, we also have to predict a reversal of a team that looks unseeded in one match because it could even surprise us and beat the team we previously chose. It's really difficult if we don't know how to choose a good team.

Along the way, you will learn how to  analyze the game/sport that you are betting on. There's no precise or accurate

prediction but with good experienced and if you following the team that you are back with the chance is really good for you to win

your bet. But then again, it's gambling upset can happen and you must be ready to adjust and have a good back-up plan just in case

things will not go according to your analysis. Acceptance is a good motivation to move forward and try even harder to make a winning

picks.

[ethereumhunter]

Along the way, you will learn how to  analyze the game/sport that you are betting on. There's no precise or accurate prediction but with good experienced and if you following the team that you are back with the chance is really good for you to win your bet. But then again, it's gambling upset can happen and you must be ready to adjust and have a good back-up plan just in case things will not go according to your analysis. Acceptance is a good motivation to move forward and try even harder to make a winning picks.

What you say is true because having enough experience can improve our analysis of the player or team we want to choose. Indeed, there is no precise or accurate prediction but at least we can choose a player or team with more power than the opposing team. Thus, our winning percentage can be quite high and there is a possibility that we can win some money. And as long as we can adapt to the moment's circumstances, we can certainly know when we can bet again or when to pause. But from all that, we must also know that our analysis is not always able to give results for us and this is where we have to admit that we still need to learn more.

[Wakate]

Unless you're crunching huge amounts of information like the casinos then at best you'll end up making an "educated guess". If you're keeping track of your betting and doing analysis, maybe over a few years you could determine that your judgements on value are accurate - because otherwise variance might bring your profit back down to zero on short timescales. Honestly you'd think things like a team being two goals up in a football match with 5 minutes to go a sure fire winner, but I've seen enough reversals of fortune to know it's not a long term winner.

From there, the analysis we do will determine the selection of the team that has the opportunity to win in that match. Maybe when doing analysis, we can see how the history of the team we are analyzing is so we can know whether the team deserves to be chosen or whether we have to look for another team with a bigger chance of winning. However, we also have to predict a reversal of a team that looks unseeded in one match because it could even surprise us and beat the team we previously chose. It's really difficult if we don't know how to choose a good team.

Along the way, you will learn how to  analyze the game/sport that you are betting on. There's no precise or accurate

prediction but with good experienced and if you following the team that you are back with the chance is really good for you to win

your bet. But then again, it's gambling upset can happen and you must be ready to adjust and have a good back-up plan just in case

things will not go according to your analysis. Acceptance is a good motivation to move forward and try even harder to make a winning

picks.

Sometime it is good to take common risk on bets and this cam be a whopping opportunities to win from just taking the hardest risk that might look too obvious to other gamblers. I have prepared my own list of football games that made many of my friends to laugh and ponder why on Earth I chose those games because it was clear them that I could never smell any winnings but I stood my ground and went ahead to play the bets. It was very shocking to them that everything I bet on had clear winnings which looks like a magic them. Sometimes betting on the odd games can bring fortune and luck to us.

[AicecreaME]

Last night, Djokovic, one of the best tennis players on grass out there (potentially he is the favorite to win in Wimbledon) - had odds of 1.25 at peak against Timmy, after Timmy won one set.
Would you see that 1.25 as a value bet or not?

What if a tennis player in Wimbledon or some other big tournament, quickly goes 40-0 and you have him @ 1.10 to win the game (not the match, just that 40-0 game) - can this be a value bet?

What about a basketball match, the total line is 180.5 and the game in live goes 150.5 - is it worth taking the "over" because the line has dropped 30 points below the original line?

How do you define value in general?

I think it's an acquired skill to pick out these sort of value bets and still very hard o beat the sportbook analytics in the long run. With enough practice and a keen eye you could probably make it profitable, I was once able to pick something like 8 winning bets in a row for a free competition, although that's an extremely rare event - most of the time you'd barely be able to pick 2 or 3 correct in a row at a coin toss. Mispricing does happen and only someone who is very close to the sport is likely to know all the characteristics of who will win a certain event, in-play betting does have a lot more potential to disrupt the odds and give an individual an advantage.

This is indeed possible, but of course, it has its risks. Value bets are tricky because no one knows for sure if the bet is overestimated or underestimated which could lead you to losing end. Sports betting live could be one of the options someone would look into if they want to check the status of the odds first before making a bet. To some people this works good enough to predict the right outcome and win a few bucks. But to some it is tricky and risky because sudden turn of events make them doubt.

You are lucky and skilled enough to make consecutive 8 wins over a free competition. If someone has this kind of skills, definitely that person would generate profit over time. But of course, to acquire that would be handful as well and luck will also play a great part.

[btc78]

Unless you're crunching huge amounts of information like the casinos then at best you'll end up making an "educated guess". If you're keeping track of your betting and doing analysis, maybe over a few years you could determine that your judgements on value are accurate - because otherwise variance might bring your profit back down to zero on short timescales. Honestly you'd think things like a team being two goals up in a football match with 5 minutes to go a sure fire winner, but I've seen enough reversals of fortune to know it's not a long term winner.

From there, the analysis we do will determine the selection of the team that has the opportunity to win in that match. Maybe when doing analysis, we can see how the history of the team we are analyzing is so we can know whether the team deserves to be chosen or whether we have to look for another team with a bigger chance of winning. However, we also have to predict a reversal of a team that looks unseeded in one match because it could even surprise us and beat the team we previously chose. It's really difficult if we don't know how to choose a good team.

Along the way, you will learn how to  analyze the game/sport that you are betting on. There's no precise or accurate

prediction but with good experienced and if you following the team that you are back with the chance is really good for you to win

your bet. But then again, it's gambling upset can happen and you must be ready to adjust and have a good back-up plan just in case

things will not go according to your analysis. Acceptance is a good motivation to move forward and try even harder to make a winning

picks.

before depositing ? we must understand that we will gamble to "Try Winning" but there is no assurance that this will happen so the best mind set is to accept the fact that you are already loss even before starting to gamble.
with this mentality you will learn how to control your desire and enjoy the game without being frustrated or feeling a loser along the process.
we are playing/betting because we wanted too and not to completely win.

[ChiBitCTy]

I think it’s all completely subjective and situationally based. I will sometimes bet like this for NFL football. You certainly can shave a few points off if you’re absolutely confident in the team still winning even if they gone down by a little or even a decent amount. I normally like placing my bets ahead of time, but I will do it in game and normally will throw down extra on one of the bets I’ve already made.

[Pierre 2]

In my country betting rates are heavily regulated by state so its hard to see some team getting more than 1.05 or 1.10 odds against very weak team. Even though I think many value bets come through such games when stronger one has many injured players (I am talking about football here) so 1.25 odd is not that bad still. On contrary I also experienced losing so called guarenteed bets (which I added to cover my losses). So value bet is only value after you hit with it.

[dothebeats]

I think it’s all completely subjective and situationally based. I will sometimes bet like this for NFL football. You certainly can shave a few points off if you’re absolutely confident in the team still winning even if they gone down by a little or even a decent amount. I normally like placing my bets ahead of time, but I will do it in game and normally will throw down extra on one of the bets I’ve already made.

That's a good point. Some bookies allow you to bet on different lines on some events that are a few points up or down from the main line. This allows bettors to maximize the odds on their bets to get more value off of it. I myself am doing this sometimes if I have done a thorough research on the game that I'll bet on. Sometimes that few points on the odds is helpful if you want to stack your profits fast.

[Oshosondy]

I normally like placing my bets ahead of time, but I will do it in game and normally will throw down extra on one of the bets I’ve already made.

I used some in-play matches in football to win. Assuming that match between club A and B have 1.1 and 7 odds for team A and B respectively. I can still wait for the match to start and bet during in-play, the more the club A has not scored as the match goes on, the odd for Club A to win will gradually be increasing. There are some times I wait for 10 to 15 minutes after the match has started before I place bet on it with a bigger odd.

In my country betting rates are heavily regulated by state so its hard to see some team getting more than 1.05 or 1.10 odds against very weak team. Even though I think many value bets come through such games when stronger one has many injured players (I am talking about football here) so 1.25 odd is not that bad still. On contrary I also experienced losing so called guarenteed bets (which I added to cover my losses). So value bet is only value after you hit with it.

Anything below 1.1 odds, I do not go for. Even I only go for 1.1 odd not often at all, the last I could remember was one of the Tottenham home match this season which I went for win or draw, It could take weeks or few months before I can go for such low odd again. But 1.25 odd is not bad at all, but still looking small. My main preference is 1.5 odd and above.

[doomloop]

What you say is true because having enough experience can improve our analysis of the player or team we want to choose. Indeed, there is no precise or accurate prediction but at least we can choose a player or team with more power than the opposing team. Thus, our winning percentage can be quite high and there is a possibility that we can win some money. And as long as we can adapt to the moment's circumstances, we can certainly know when we can bet again or when to pause. But from all that, we must also know that our analysis is not always able to give results for us and this is where we have to admit that we still need to learn more.

I think to choose a powerful team is not that hard because we can simply make a research online to see their strengths and weakness. We can watch their past games and so on but we should not limit our picking only in the strong team because sometimes those who we think are weak are the ones who will end up as a victor.

Knowing when to pause or stop usually occurs when we won or when we busted our balances because continuing can make us lose what we won and we can lose more further if ever we already lose earlier. We need to wait a day or two before we can bet again so that we are sure that our luck is on a full bar again.

[jostorres]

Along the way, you will learn how to  analyze the game/sport that you are betting on. There's no precise or accurate prediction but with good experienced and if you following the team that you are back with the chance is really good for you to win your bet. But then again, it's gambling upset can happen and you must be ready to adjust and have a good back-up plan just in case things will not go according to your analysis. Acceptance is a good motivation to move forward and try even harder to make a winning picks.

before depositing ? we must understand that we will gamble to "Try Winning" but there is no assurance that this will happen so the best mind set is to accept the fact that you are already loss even before starting to gamble.
with this mentality you will learn how to control your desire and enjoy the game without being frustrated or feeling a loser along the process.
we are playing/betting because we wanted too and not to completely win.

Analysis can be done before or after depositing as long as the match hasn't started yet, that is for us to have a good amount of time to prepare because when we are rushing, sh!t can mostly happen. In gambling, each of us has a different preference. Some plays to try to win a profit while the other will play only to relieve stress and to pass the time. Gambling also has two kinds, one is luck based and the other is skill based.

Sports betting is an example of skill based game. As long as you have a good experience then you have a higher chance to win a profit although yeah, acceptance must be always there because we can also experience a bad luck sometimes.

[Saint-loup]

In my country betting rates are heavily regulated by state so its hard to see some team getting more than 1.05 or 1.10 odds against very weak team. Even though I think many value bets come through such games when stronger one has many injured players (I am talking about football here) so 1.25 odd is not that bad still. On contrary I also experienced losing so called guarenteed bets (which I added to cover my losses). So value bet is only value after you hit with it.

Which is your country precisely? You seem to be a turkish speaking man from what I've read in your previous posts... But almost all casinos have games and tables dedicated to turkish speaking people, and they seem to try to attract them so I'm surprised when you say it's heavily regulated in your country. I was thinking the opposite precisely. Anyway, if you are looking for good odds it's not difficult to find a crypto sportsbook to bet there, your country doesn't seem to be a country banned by usual offshore gambling licenses.

[btc78]

Along the way, you will learn how to  analyze the game/sport that you are betting on. There's no precise or accurate prediction but with good experienced and if you following the team that you are back with the chance is really good for you to win your bet. But then again, it's gambling upset can happen and you must be ready to adjust and have a good back-up plan just in case things will not go according to your analysis. Acceptance is a good motivation to move forward and try even harder to make a winning picks.

before depositing ? we must understand that we will gamble to "Try Winning" but there is no assurance that this will happen so the best mind set is to accept the fact that you are already loss even before starting to gamble.
with this mentality you will learn how to control your desire and enjoy the game without being frustrated or feeling a loser along the process.
we are playing/betting because we wanted too and not to completely win.

Analysis can be done before or after depositing as long as the match hasn't started yet, that is for us to have a good amount of time to prepare because when we are rushing, sh!t can mostly happen. In gambling, each of us has a different preference. Some plays to try to win a profit while the other will play only to relieve stress and to pass the time. Gambling also has two kinds, one is luck based and the other is skill based.

well you are correct , but why not search and learn first before even starting to deposit? because if you find nothing good to bet in sports then you can divert your money in gambling first in card or some luck based gambling , if you can take it right.

Sports betting is an example of skill based game. As long as you have a good experience then you have a higher chance to win a profit although yeah, acceptance must be always there because we can also experience a bad luck sometimes.

not just experience but also understand about the game, the team/players and the timing of when to bet since it depends on which are they opposing also.

[ethereumhunter]

What you say is true because having enough experience can improve our analysis of the player or team we want to choose. Indeed, there is no precise or accurate prediction but at least we can choose a player or team with more power than the opposing team. Thus, our winning percentage can be quite high and there is a possibility that we can win some money. And as long as we can adapt to the moment's circumstances, we can certainly know when we can bet again or when to pause. But from all that, we must also know that our analysis is not always able to give results for us and this is where we have to admit that we still need to learn more.

I think to choose a powerful team is not that hard because we can simply make a research online to see their strengths and weakness. We can watch their past games and so on but we should not limit our picking only in the strong team because sometimes those who we think are weak are the ones who will end up as a victor.

Knowing when to pause or stop usually occurs when we won or when we busted our balances because continuing can make us lose what we won and we can lose more further if ever we already lose earlier. We need to wait a day or two before we can bet again so that we are sure that our luck is on a full bar again.

That is true but we also have to think that it is not always a strong team that can keep winning against a weak team because there are times when a strong team underestimates a weak team so that they will lose the opportunity to win it. But at least, researching the history of their matches can help us choose a team with better statistics than other teams.

And yes, we have to know when to stop to avoid a big loss so that it doesn't cost us big money. And the last thing is to rest, like you said to reduce the tension after that bet so we can analyze well for the next match.

[molsewid]

In my country betting rates are heavily regulated by state so its hard to see some team getting more than 1.05 or 1.10 odds against very weak team. Even though I think many value bets come through such games when stronger one has many injured players (I am talking about football here) so 1.25 odd is not that bad still. On contrary I also experienced losing so called guarenteed bets (which I added to cover my losses). So value bet is only value after you hit with it.

Which is your country precisely? You seem to be a turkish speaking man from what I've read in your previous posts... But almost all casinos have games and tables dedicated to turkish speaking people, and they seem to try to attract them so I'm surprised when you say it's heavily regulated in your country. I was thinking the opposite precisely. Anyway, if you are looking for good odds it's not difficult to find a crypto sportsbook to bet there, your country doesn't seem to be a country banned by usual offshore gambling licenses.

Here in us it is very regulated by the government, but I don't think online betting in this country has a limited odds. I am not sure but maybe we're the same from the other countries, I've seen some online cockpit with the same odds, I am not familiar with sportsbook so correct me if I'm wrong with this one.

[darkangel11]

I will speak from my own experience:

Until some time when I watched a soccer game, it was normal for a team to be winning by 2 - 0 and the odd was at @1.12 I thought: "if I bet and guaranteed victory" but to my shock and that when I reached 72 minutes the team that was losing the game managed to draw and win the game, it was something shocking. so I thought: " I'm going to start placing bets with odds of @1.50 and I could even win some games, but I only had to lose 2 games for all my victories to become useless, so I changed to odds of @2.00 and realized the following: a bet value is one in which the person knows that if he wins his effort to keep doing analysis it will be rewarded, and the person will be in profit in the long run

I've bet on so many matches that ended with a goal in added time or it come down to the penalties or one team was losing and then it scored twice in 10 minutes...
You can never be sure of your bets unless it's an MMA fight of an experienced champion with some big guy that came from weightlifting with no fighting experience or like they put McGregor vs Mayweather. These things where you can be somewhat sure are rare though.