The next big predictable trigger looks to be the next 'halving' in 2024
bitcoins halving 2012 - november
price pre halving $6 price post halving $13
bitcoins halving 2016 - july
price pre halving $400 price post halving $960
bitcoins halving 2020 - november
price pre halving $5k price post halving $11k
halvings as the name suggests only cause a doubling of cost..
2x trigger
but comparing the mining rates of asics. from say the 2016 2020 generations
they have a factor of 3-5x deficiency
which can push the mining and market dynamics at play up by a 3-5x
yep cpu only managed 1mhash.. GPU managed a 100mhash
hense the $0.30 ->$32.00 first ATH
GPU 'rigs'(multiple gpu per mainboard) managed 0.6Ghash.. first asics were 60ghash
so the 2012 $12 became the late 2013 $1200 ATH
the 14Thash s9 become the 85thash s17
this pushed the 2017 ATH to be a 2021 of $65
right now miner owners are swapping out old gear where say if they had 1petahash
=12 asics of ~85thash at 2.9kwh each (34kwh total/h)
it becomes
=7 asics of ~140thash at 3.01kwh each (21.07kwh total/h)
this has caused the 2020 bottom window to drop from ~$25 to ~$15k
once you account for all costs
but that spare rack space and less electric used allows miners to expand and put another 41% on later this year to come back up to costs of last year
and then push further if they choose.. but we just are not at the trigger point of adding more asics.. we are still at the deficiency sway zone before the next hashrate push
i think it's very logical to base bitcoin's price window on mining costs that does make sense, in a sense. but there has to be something more that gives bitcoin its market price like overall public demand. miners are probably a very small subset of all bitcoin users therefore, if bitcoin were only valuable to them, it wouldn't matter what their mining costs were, bitcoin would be worth very little in the real world.
thats where the dynamics play out
yes there are the utility factors, such as compared to fiat(inflation) bitcoin(deflation) offers many things
you can set up off shore fund holding without a bank manager/lawyer
you can set up family trusts without bank manager/lawyer
you can move more then $1k value without having to ask a bank or being questioned
some see the fee's as being worth 6 minutes of min wage labour.some see fee's as being a days labour
lots of different factors and reasons people like bitcoin more or less
aswell as factors already mentioned are the cost factors..
in hawaii, germany and japan. they have highest electric prices. and so they are not inclined to want to mine unless the price was high but they are willing to buy bitcoin at any price because any price is below their mining cost so they see the price as being great value at any price individually. its these less efficient regions where people are willing to buy for more than the low. because its still cheap value for them to buy. but even they have their limits. which is the ATH top window effect
all bitcoiners are bitcoiners..
those that have courage and wealthy pockets and risk takers will invest in hardware and if they are the more savvi,organised. their acquisition price would be at the low end
those less courageous and just want get in and out quick become buyers and sellers where they take the premium speculative route for the convenience, ease, preference
read through the bitcointalk posts of early 2010 when the first market places were opening where people were describing "price discovery" where even then 12 years ago they understood the min price being at or above mining cost
as for mining vs buying decisions its the same as
EG if you could buy land and plant an apple tree vs just going to a fruit market to buy an apple. which would you choose
EG if you could spend a couple weeks learning how to fish or going to market to buy a fish. which would you choose
convenience to just grab what you want when you want. or have to wait around for getting rewards
they all have reasons to want bitcoin and fight others to get it both in mining and on the markets.
if only a couple hundred people were interested then it, and most were of african decent where their disposable(spare/investable) income was small.. then yes the value line and price would be like a crappy PoW altcoin of low value and low price..
the more people interested, the more they are willing to buy/acquire, the higher everything goes due to the competition.
there are other factors at play in the markets
although in 2012 there were only ~11m btc in circulation. the price was about $6-$13
now there is 19m in circulation. but the price is not lower. as some think more supply =less price..
the thing is on the market there are not 19m coins on the market order books
what occurs if you check out the statistics is that most small investors (majority) only invest about $400-$600 per order
and with those holding bitcoin knowing the costs and prices go up. they dont just pander into buys demands of selling whole coins for $400-$600
instead they only offer out small decimals of coins
so when people think its a if there is $xbill fiat vs xk btc the numbers play out to that ratio.. they are wrong
..
there are alot of factors that play into price discovery but you will find that their triggers and reasons all fall back to the underlying costs to make it on the planet at the lows and highs.. where peoples buying demands fall within that window
and where no seller wants to sell below the bottom of the window. which creates a non-zero zone of no mans land that supports prices being above a non-zero amount. which currently sits at $15k.. and no one wants to buy above a certain amount which creates another no mans land line at the top where everyone gives up trading above.
