U.S dollar almost equal to Euro

[YinShuiSiYuan]

The US dollar strengthened slightly and the euro continued to weaken. Inflation and global recession continue to worsen all sectors of the economy in various countries and the eurozone is under pressure from this and even the weakening of the euro is also caused by one of the factors, such as increasing concerns about the possibility of a recession in 19 eurozone countries. even according to some surveys found that business growth in the euro zone is slowing down. and that could cause the entire region to fall into recession. and many other factors as mentioned by other members above.

1 usd = 0.98$

Usd is one of best performing currency these days thanks to stupid moves by Europe of boycotting cheap Russian gas. While usa is the biggest beneficiary of ukarine war while loosers are EU along ukarine and Russia. EU and Russia must sit and find a peaceful solution.

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[ven7net]

For the first time in 20 years, the U.S. dollar has been surging so much that the Euro sinks towards parity with the Dollar, currently trading at €1/$1.01, being almost equal. This is a threat to both Europe and USA, since imports are now much more costly for Europe. The exchange rate is also driving oil prices up, since purchasing a barrel of oil valued at $100, now costs €98-99 for Europe, while a few months ago, the same barrel would cost €80-90 at most.

Goldman Sachs warned that the Eurozone is on the edge of recession, especially with Russia's decision to cut CNG supplies to Europe, resulting in huge surges in prices.  While the war in Ukraine hasn't affected USA as much as it has Europe, it has magnified oil and gas prices, punishing European consumers with the surging living costs.

What are your thoughts? Will Euro's value fall lower than the U.S. Dollar? One thing is certain though, we're going to go through a tough time in the very near future.
Sources:
https://fortune.com/2022/07/07/us-dollar-euro-nearly-equal-value-economy-inflation/
https://www.ft.com/content/48c7041f-1fa4-42ee-99f6-4a5955668fb6

Edit: Thanks LoyceMobile, I meant to say that U.S. exports are much more costly for Europe, bad phrasing.

I see that the price of the euro will definitely be less against the dollar, since Europe will probably have to pay for the benefit of other countries. What does it mean? Probably many people know about the problems in the United States, namely in their economy and finances, and so this all needs to be resolved and it has already been found, namely, the ruin of Europe will just allow the United States to help solve its problems at this stage in the first place. Based on this, the price of the euro against the dollar will continue to decline.

[YinShuiSiYuan]

I see that the price of the euro will definitely be less against the dollar, since Europe will probably have to pay for the benefit of other countries. What does it mean? Probably many people know about the problems in the United States, namely in their economy and finances, and so this all needs to be resolved and it has already been found, namely, the ruin of Europe will just allow the United States to help solve its problems at this stage in the first place. Based on this, the price of the euro against the dollar will continue to decline.

As long as EU is doing stupid mistake of boycotting cheap Russian gas rather buying expensive USA LNG they are deemed for destruction. There is energy crisis be expected in few months. Meanwhile Russia is selling his oil to New markets found in China and India.

[sana54210]

I see that the price of the euro will definitely be less against the dollar, since Europe will probably have to pay for the benefit of other countries. What does it mean? Probably many people know about the problems in the United States, namely in their economy and finances, and so this all needs to be resolved and it has already been found, namely, the ruin of Europe will just allow the United States to help solve its problems at this stage in the first place. Based on this, the price of the euro against the dollar will continue to decline.

USA could be in trouble eventually, but the fact that Europe is a whole continent and the nations that are using euro are not all single entity. Meaning if we are dealing with this right now, that means we are not going to be shocked when Germany fails to pay for the debts of Greece or something like that again. We have known for a while now Germany has been fixing the problems all over every nation that uses euro, and France tries to not create too much trouble for anyone, but there are like a dozen nations that is failing and because of that euro is failing as well and now that Germany can't make a surplus, they can't reach out and help everyone all at once.

[jaberwock]

I see that the price of the euro will definitely be less against the dollar, since Europe will probably have to pay for the benefit of other countries. What does it mean? Probably many people know about the problems in the United States, namely in their economy and finances, and so this all needs to be resolved and it has already been found, namely, the ruin of Europe will just allow the United States to help solve its problems at this stage in the first place. Based on this, the price of the euro against the dollar will continue to decline.

USA could be in trouble eventually, but the fact that Europe is a whole continent and the nations that are using euro are not all single entity. Meaning if we are dealing with this right now, that means we are not going to be shocked when Germany fails to pay for the debts of Greece or something like that again. We have known for a while now Germany has been fixing the problems all over every nation that uses euro, and France tries to not create too much trouble for anyone, but there are like a dozen nations that is failing and because of that euro is failing as well and now that Germany can't make a surplus, they can't reach out and help everyone all at once.

USA is big enough to be like Europe continent as well. The difference is that instead of nations, they have states and each state is managed by itself aside from federal law. Meaning that while California is paying a ton more taxes and getting a lot less in return by federal government, alamaba would be paying nearly not enough and then get a ton of federal help.

If we were to tell alabama to collect their own taxes and live, they will bankrupt in a minute, which is the same situation. Maybe Germany bankrolled Europe so far, but California and New York type of places bankrolled many states so far as well. If USA can survive that way, Europe could survive the same way as well.

[Ultegra134]

I see that the price of the euro will definitely be less against the dollar, since Europe will probably have to pay for the benefit of other countries. What does it mean? Probably many people know about the problems in the United States, namely in their economy and finances, and so this all needs to be resolved and it has already been found, namely, the ruin of Europe will just allow the United States to help solve its problems at this stage in the first place. Based on this, the price of the euro against the dollar will continue to decline.

USA could be in trouble eventually, but the fact that Europe is a whole continent and the nations that are using euro are not all single entity. Meaning if we are dealing with this right now, that means we are not going to be shocked when Germany fails to pay for the debts of Greece or something like that again. We have known for a while now Germany has been fixing the problems all over every nation that uses euro, and France tries to not create too much trouble for anyone, but there are like a dozen nations that is failing and because of that euro is failing as well and now that Germany can't make a surplus, they can't reach out and help everyone all at once.

Since when is Germany saving other countries from the goodness of their heart? Are you serious? Germany made billions, profiting from Greece's financial crisis. The ECB is responsible for the state of many countries in Europe, including Italy, Greece, Spain and so on. Not to mention that Germany still owes war reparations since World War 2.

No one is saving anyone, it's all done for profit, Greece and many other countries should have never joined the Eurozone, it was a terrible mistake.

[paxmao]

Let's see how the USD behaves during next year, but it is very clear that the US economy has come out of the covid with just a bit of a cold meanwhile the EU economy has come out with a full blown flu. The jobs market in the US is extremely strong, and despite a technical recession, there is not a translation into the public confidence... inflation is high because people keep spending like crazyl

[stompix]

Let's see how the USD behaves during next year, but it is very clear that the US economy has come out of the covid with just a bit of a cold meanwhile the EU economy has come out with a full blown flu. The jobs market in the US is extremely strong, and despite a technical recession, there is not a translation into the public confidence... inflation is high because people keep spending like crazyl

I don't see how it is very clear
The US GDP has gone down 1.6 in Q1 and again 0.9 in Q2, EU's GDP has grown by 0.6 and 0.7 in the first part of this year.
If we look at employment the US has a labor force participation rate of 62.1%, below the 63.4% before the Covid disruption, Eu has reached a record of 74.30%, and since it's a record it's obviously above 2019.

So, who has the flu and who has a cold?

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I don't see how it is very clear
The US GDP has gone down 1.6 in Q1 and again 0.9 in Q2, EU's GDP has grown by 0.6 and 0.7 in the first part of this year.
If we look at employment the US has a labor force participation rate of 62.1%, below the 63.4% before the Covid disruption, Eu has reached a record of 74.30%, and since it's a record it's obviously above 2019.

So, who has the flu and who has a cold?

I think you are very optimistic with these statistics. Personally, I have little confidence in statistics, as it is not unusual to see two economists arguing the opposite on the basis of statistics, sometimes on the basis of the same studies.

Apart from the fact that in these cases I always remember the personal text of DdmrDdmr:

   There are lies, damned lies and statistics. MTwain

There are better things in Europe than in the US, obviously. For example, I think it is positive that in Europe there is less difference between rich and poor, but I don't think that the situation in Europe at the moment is something to boast about. And I hope I'm wrong, but the future looks bleak.

[stompix]

I think you are very optimistic with these statistics. Personally, I have little confidence in statistics, as it is not unusual to see two economists arguing the opposite on the basis of statistics, sometimes on the basis of the same studies.

If you have little confidence in statistics then what do you believe?
Random twitter accounts that have predicted 100 crashes, war nuclear destructions, and famine? Or let me quote :

Same goes for Zerohedge, the site that predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions.

The data is there, it's no statistics that can be misinterpreted in both ways, like for example unemployment in Belarus, where of course nobody signs up for unemployment benefits because they pay 2$ a month. This is an actual number of people employed, with contracts with wages.

And if you're from Europe you can't possibly deny that everyone is hiring and nobody has enough workers right now, it's not a crisis where people can't find a job, everywhere you go there is a job opening.
You're from Spain, are your beaches empty? Are the hotels empty? Or do you see surging numbers of tourists partying all night?

For example, I think it is positive that in Europe there is less difference between rich and poor, but I don't think that the situation in Europe at the moment is something to boast about. And I hope I'm wrong, but the future looks bleak.

I'm not boasting about anything, I'm just saying that despite all the doomsday rumors spreading around here, where everything in the economy is going to collapse since we need the world to be destroyed in order for Bitcoin to thrive on our corpses, things are not that bad!
Of course, they could be far better, but it's nowhere near the level some want to paint.

[sehishei]

Affected by headwinds such as high energy prices and deteriorating global terms of trade, the euro faces further inflationary pressures, while the euro zone's economic growth prospects are weakened. And expectations of faster and bigger Fed rate hikes boosted the dollar.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

And if you're from Europe you can't possibly deny that everyone is hiring and nobody has enough workers right now, it's not a crisis where people can't find a job, everywhere you go there is a job opening.

The unemployment rate in Spain is around 12.5%, which for Spain is not bad, but it must be taken into account that the current government made a reform on some type of job contracts (fijos discontinuos) that allows some people to be counted as working for the whole year when in reality they only work for a few months.

Nor is someone who is unemployed and does some training useless courses counted as unemployed, and there are other examples like this that show that the unemployment rate has a lot of statistical make-up. I'm not just saying in the case of this government. Statistical make-up to mask the pathetic state of the labour market in Spain has been used by various governments over the years.

That's why, among other things, I say that I don't trust statistics.

You're from Spain, are your beaches empty? Are the hotels empty? Or do you see surging numbers of tourists partying all night?

We are back to the same thing. Isolated data does not indicate anything. Hotel occupancy as a % is an indication, but it is no good having a hotel occupancy rate similar to the average if spending per tourist is significantly lower, to give an example. You can go to the beach without spending a euro, you take the car, a towel and a cooler for drinks and food. So full beaches are not a reliable indicator of good economic activity either.

[stompix]

The unemployment rate

And why are mentioning this?
I've already told you I'm not looking at the unemployment rate that can be manipulated in one hundred ways.
What I'm looking is the employment rate which simply means one thing, people who work versus all of the population capable of working.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Employment_-_annual_statistics

We are back to the same thing. Isolated data does not indicate anything.

Not isolated data, overall data!
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spain-edges-closer-pre-pandemic-tourism-levels-with-75-mln-visitors-june-2022-08-02/

Covers everything you have tried to deny as an indicator, from the amount of spending money per person increasing to overall numbers of occupancy. Next? Don't you see that you want everything to be bleak as you are trying to find fault in everything good?
Do you see how you dismissed my claim about tourism without bothering to check the numbers or anything else and then you claim you don't trust things, how can you be so bent on not trusting things others say when you don't verify your own beliefs?

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Not isolated data, overall data!
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spain-edges-closer-pre-pandemic-tourism-levels-with-75-mln-visitors-june-2022-08-02/

Covers everything you have tried to deny as an indicator, from the amount of spending money per person increasing to overall numbers of occupancy. Next? Don't you see that you want everything to be bleak as you are trying to find fault in everything good?
Do you see how you dismissed my claim about tourism without bothering to check the numbers or anything else and then you claim you don't trust things, how can you be so bent on not trusting things others say when you don't verify your own beliefs?

Hey man, have you read the article? Yeah, increasing numbers of occupancy compared to the 2020 and 2021. And yet:

Spain's government expects tourist arrivals to reach 90% of pre-pandemic volumes during the summer season,

So you call data to rely on the forecasts of the Spanish government, which is widely known for its predictive reliability in economic matters. Is that it? LMAO.

You can see it as the government sees it or you can see it as we have 10% less tourism, than pre-covid.

I've already told you I'm not looking at the unemployment rate that can be manipulated in one hundred ways.
What I'm looking is the employment rate which simply means one thing, people who work versus all of the population capable of working.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Employment_-_annual_statistics

Yes, this indicator is more reliable than the one usually used in Spain, which is the unemployment figure.

If you mean that the situation is not catastrophic as you said before, we agree on that.

Do you see the future looking very bright with rising energy costs and the regulatory tangle in Europe?

Have you seen the evolution of the Euro Stoxx 50 versus the S&P 500 over the last 20 years? Do you think the next 20 years will be better for us?

Although after the last bill passed by the US Senate, I don't see much stimulation of economic activity there, but perhaps that's what the planet needs:

US Senate approves Biden’s climate and tax bill: ‘This is going to change America for decades’

[stompix]

Hey man, have you read the article? Yeah, increasing numbers of occupancy compared to the 2020 and 2021. And yet:

Spain's government expects tourist arrivals to reach 90% of pre-pandemic volumes during the summer season,

So right now, from the crisis, people losing their jobs, gloom, and doom you're last defense is that we're at just 90% from pre covid levels?
Lowering the bar much?  

If you mean that the situation is not catastrophic as you said before, we agree on that.
Do you see the future looking very bright with rising energy costs and the regulatory tangle in Europe?
Have you seen the evolution of the Euro Stoxx 50 versus the S&P 500 over the last 20 years? Do you think the next 20 years will be better for us?

Ok, I've got it.
You don't like data at hand but you think 20 years in the future and you say it's definitely bleak.

Furthermore, at this point, I don't understand what are we even debating, my first post was clear, I asked paxmao if he is sure who has the flu and the cold, I've never said one could run the marathon and the other has cancer, and you only argued about not believing statistics.
If you don't believe any number cause is coming from the evil gubbermint that banned tinfoil hats, then how would it be possible for me to convince you of the opposite? At this point there is no way, I can throw any data at you and you will say no it's not good, so all that it's left is to wait for 20 years and see who was right and who was wrong.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Furthermore, at this point, I don't understand what are we even debating, my first post was clear,

Neither do I.

So right now, from the crisis, people losing their jobs, gloom, and doom you're last defense is that we're at just 90% from pre covid levels?

No. That the Spanish government says we will be at 90% of pre-covid levels. There is an important difference in nuance. Look at the economic predictions made by the Spanish government and see if it has got any of them right.

You don't like data at hand but you think 20 years in the future and you say it's definitely bleak.

The data at hand shows that over the last 20 years the performance of the Euro Stoxx 50 is laughable compared to the S&P 500. I don't know what you are talking about when you have the data in front of you and you don't pay attention to it.

I have no reason to believe that the next 20 years will reverse the situation shown in the data. That's the point.

And another thing coming back to the main point of the thread. The euro has not only weakened against the dollar. It has weakened against most of the major benchmark currencies as well. Look at the data against the GBP, the Swiss Franc or even the Yuan.

[Mario Yamasaki]

I do not understand why the Euro value continues to decline, not only corrections to the USD but almost all currencies, this is an indication that the British decision not to join the European economy is the right decision, it must be recognized after Europe uses a single currency.

[pooya87]

this is an indication that the British decision not to join the European economy is the right decision

You should have looked at the British Pound's exchange rate before making this statement. Both GBP and EUR are dumping identically (both about -3% in past month). In fact this is the main reason why the English government fell apart and Johnson was kicked out of office. Brexit failed to achieve its goals.

[Sebas.tian]

The crisis that occurred in Europe makes the value of the euro continue to decline, not only on dollars with local currency in my country euro also drops more than 8% compared to the end of 2021, of course this is a serious problem for the European economy, if it continues to decline then it can be ascertained long -term economic recession.

I think, Europe government is seriously working to end the crisis that is affecting their economy and other things in the country. Europe are still struggle to recover what COVID-19 has caused in their financial assets that is making their citizens not to make enough income from their investments, which is causing their government pain to do everything possible within their power to improve their economy before the end of this year 2022. I don't think, this economy depreciation will continue in Europe because their government is planning to print more money that will make the economy to increase higher.

[Jaksjol675]

The euro made big news in July 2022 when it fell to the same value as the US dollar for the first time in two decades. It hasn't recovered much -- after an expected dip of the dollar on Aug. 12, one euro is still only worth $1.03. That's down from $1.18 at the end of Aug. 2021, or a 12.7% drop.

It's not simply that the euro's falling, however. The dollar has been rising due to higher interest rates and global economic uncertainties such as the war in Ukraine.