Ethereum’s failure to close above $1.3K

[FMCPAY_GLOBAL]

ETH price saw a brief breakout following the successful merge on the Sepolia testnet, but analysts say the altcoin’s failure to flip $1,300 to support hints at further downside.

The Ethereum network moved one step closer to completing its transition to proof-of-stake (PoS) this week after the successful completion of its second-to-last major Merge trial on the Sepolia public test network.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that following the Sepolia Merge on July 6, the price of Ether (ETH) rallied to a high near $1,280 on July 8 but has since trended down to hit a daily low of 1,153 on July 10.

ETH/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Maybe bulls need to break through the resistance at $1,200 if they want to make a sustained move higher, while the bears are looking for the resistance provided by the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) to hold firm and continue to apply downside pressure.

(Source: Cointelegraph)

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[Jackl87]

ETH price saw a brief breakout following the successful merge on the Sepolia testnet, but analysts say the altcoin’s failure to flip $1,300 to support hints at further downside.
The Ethereum network moved one step closer to completing its transition to proof-of-stake (PoS) this week after the successful completion of its second-to-last major Merge trial on the Sepolia public test network.

To be honest i did not know abut that success on the testnet at all and i would guess that many others also did not know that. Also the price movements of Ethereum did also not really indicate that there were a major event happening or something as it basically moved with the overall direction of the whole crypto market. Nevertheless i think it is a good achievement and i really hope that Ethereum manages to do a smooth transition between PoW and PoS. Hopefully the gas fees will go down too then.
That the market did not really react to that testnet news is not that unusual in my opinion, because in a bear market. Small good news have no impact at the moment.

[leea-1334]

And it only gets worse now,,, I actually thought ETH would not follow Bitcoin down this weekend too, specifically because of the successful testnet merge where everything really seemed to go according to plan.

The other scenario is bulls want the bears to win and pull price down below 1000 again -- dip and surge to 1300 is instant 30% gain, and very easy to happen with these levels.

[el kaka22]

The idea here is too individualistic to support. I mean it says that ETH failed to close above 1.3k and that should be a bad thing for the future of ETH, and the testnet situation didn't help as well, but the reality is that the whole market is the thing we should check. Bitcoin already reached above 21k and then went down, if it did then so would ETH as well, we know the market moves together and not one by one.

This means that whatever happened in ETH price, happened in other coins prices as well, right now the ups and downs are give or take the same levels. Hence, the failure to close above 1.3k wasn't a thing about ETH, it was just a thing about the market at that time.

[crwth]

I have checked the 4-hour chart and it does look like it's still in that range.



I do believe that it will continue its descent with the price following everything in the market. It's not just the crypto market, right? It's also with the stock market. Maybe once it breaks the resistance of around $1500, then we can get an upside continuation on the price.

[tomahawk9]

And it only gets worse now,,, I actually thought ETH would not follow Bitcoin down this weekend too, specifically because of the successful testnet merge where everything really seemed to go according to plan.

yeah don't underestimate how closely related both btc and eth are in terms of price movemements, especially in a bear market when selling pressure is massive and there's nothing to look forward to other than seeing Btc going up so that the market follows that trend.
Hopefully things will change in the next couple of months for ETH (end of Q3-beginning of Q4) as we get closer to the last merge. For now, either accumulate during this downtrend or let the market do its thing and don't worry about the short-term

[shinratensei_]

Ethereum testnet merge was nothing. people know about bitcoin was not able to break 23k. That means if it will become another bulltrap again. You must not believe that bitcoin can bounce back easily. I do believe if we will be stable at the current rate for some times. Ethereum is getting failed caused by bitcoin was not able to break 23k rate as the point to bounce back again.
So, we must wait until bitcoin can go up gradually. There's a big spike in the bitcoin volume which was a non sense thing that happened a few days ago but i did believe that was a bulltrap but yeah it's happening again and again.

[Baofeng]

What do you expect in a bear market? I guess support and resistance could be invalidated as the price is really going to be very volatile. And even if we have some good news, the price might go up a bit but then again after reaching some high, speculators and traders are going to sell for instant profit in this worsening condition.

So can see the same with bitcoin, going as low as $17,500 and then bouncing to $20k which still remains as the next resistance is $28k which is very difficult to break in a bear market.

[Bitcoin_Arena]

The movement was just crypto market being crypto market. The successful testnet merging had little or no impact on the uptrend price movement last week as the whole market reacted. This would only be believable if Ethereum had made major gains compared to other coins. As for failure to breakout of the $1,300 level. It's not going to happen soon or if it even happens, price will still drop right back. We are going to have a lot of sideways movements in this bear market. Do expect things to go full bull run in a couple of days

[cryptoaddictchie]

And it only gets worse now,,, I actually thought ETH would not follow Bitcoin down this weekend too, specifically because of the successful testnet merge where everything really seemed to go according to plan.

Bitcoin is somehow decoupled to some major alts as we expected that the rsi is going down for eth. Not sure whats dragging the price down more as its should be on recovery phase. Apparently, eth has been subject to huge criticism as I noticed on CT and probably a fud but the merge is a success and only OGs could see this as hard sale for alts. Anyway this will stop as soon there is a clear economic reports from fed. Likely due to recession and inflation rate, some are panic selling.

[m2017]

All these worries that ethereum need to break through the resistance at $1,200 seem like sheer nonsense to me. The whole cryptomarket is dominated by bears and cryptowinter doesn't intend to end tomorrow. It is naive to expect that in the near future the cryptomarket will radically change direction and begin to grow. We will most likely see eth fall further, even below the symbolic value of $1,000. Maybe even $500-700. Current drawdowns may be nothing compared to really low prices.

[rhomelmabini]

And it only gets worse now,,, I actually thought ETH would not follow Bitcoin down this weekend too, specifically because of the successful testnet merge where everything really seemed to go according to plan.

The other scenario is bulls want the bears to win and pull price down below 1000 again -- dip and surge to 1300 is instant 30% gain, and very easy to happen with these levels.

Altcoins like Ethereum most of the times follow the trajectory of Bitcoin once going nosedive and historically that's the case. I think the merge this time wouldn't make any powerful impace unless it's the real one. I think it's expected to see a lot of volatility during these levels.

[leea-1334]

And it only gets worse now,,, I actually thought ETH would not follow Bitcoin down this weekend too, specifically because of the successful testnet merge where everything really seemed to go according to plan.

yeah don't underestimate how closely related both btc and eth are in terms of price movemements, especially in a bear market when selling pressure is massive and there's nothing to look forward to other than seeing Btc going up so that the market follows that trend.
Hopefully things will change in the next couple of months for ETH (end of Q3-beginning of Q4) as we get closer to the last merge. For now, either accumulate during this downtrend or let the market do its thing and don't worry about the short-term

I know it has always been close,,, which crypto is not close to Bitcoin anyway right? But at the same time, Ethereum has been doing differently in terms of the percentage losses/gains (in general down is down and up is up but not as much as Bitcoin). The problem is the ETH merge is supposed to nullify the losses but it does not look that way. As you said though, nothing to worry about in the short term. Ethereum knew it was going to be a long time to go.

[fzkto]

It seems to me that the situation with Ethereum is controversial. On the one hand, there will soon be a major update and a switch to a different algorithm, if it is not postponed again at a later date. On the other hand, blocked ETH that people have been freezing in smart contracts may come onto the market. And they bought it at a price much cheaper than it's worth now.

[batang_bitcoin]

The other scenario is bulls want the bears to win and pull price down below 1000 again -- dip and surge to 1300 is instant 30% gain, and very easy to happen with these levels.

Surges can happen for Ethereum, well, there's still the connection and correlation for bitcoin and ethereum. Whether they've got the best update and merging.
If, bitcoin don't move that much, Ethereum can be limited on its move and that's why there's still the tightness of these two and it has to move along with one another.

[RussianEnglishTranslation]

The other scenario is bulls want the bears to win and pull price down below 1000 again -- dip and surge to 1300 is instant 30% gain, and very easy to happen with these levels.

Surges can happen for Ethereum, well, there's still the connection and correlation for bitcoin and ethereum. Whether they've got the best update and merging.
If, bitcoin don't move that much, Ethereum can be limited on its move and that's why there's still the tightness of these two and it has to move along with one another.

I am really pessimistic about the future of Ethereum and I think it's over priced for what it is compared to Polygon and CNDL especially. This cherry on top is that people locked up millions of dollars in ETH that may never be unlocked. Consider what happens if the merge fails or post merge the ETH is not unlocked for some reason. Also, ETH 2.0 sharding, when that comes in 2025, only includes sharded data, not true transaction sharding like seen on NEAR or ZIL.

[Xal0lex]

Maybe bulls need to break through the resistance at $1,200 if they want to make a sustained move higher, while the bears are looking for the resistance provided by the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) to hold firm and continue to apply downside pressure.

(Source: Cointelegraph)

We are now in a deep bearish trend and it is obvious that prices of any asset will fall, regardless of news, even those that are fundamentally important. Right now ETH is only prone to fall, not rise, and I have big doubts that the merger will happen at all this year. ETH has only lost 79% of its value, and that's not the limit for altcoin, it could easily lose 85-90% as well. Although ether is as fundamentally strong as bitcoin, but if bitcoin continues its fall to 10k-14k, the fall of ETH to $700 is a matter of the near future.

[Hypnosis00]

And it only gets worse now,,, I actually thought ETH would not follow Bitcoin down this weekend too, specifically because of the successful testnet merge where everything really seemed to go according to plan.

That certainly I won't believe, always and I think it was forever to see altcoins will follow the trend of Bitcoin and ETH have no excuse from that.
It could be hard for the testnet to go successful this time, as if they want then they have to move it during the bull season as the chance is higher than of these days.

The other scenario is bulls want the bears to win and pull price down below 1000 again -- dip and surge to 1300 is instant 30% gain, and very easy to happen with these levels.

We can't underestimate the market, the bear still has influence and is hard to defeat. Yet, we are still hopeful for the growing success of ETH someday, we just need the market to recover, not this testnet, etc.

[ilovealtcoins]

It doesn't seem like the bear market is over yet, so don't expect a rally in altcoins, even if it's the ethereum, as long as bitcoin is bearish.
The ethereum testnet succeeds but it won't be able to do anything to reverse the market, which is good news for eth but not enough to get the market out of the bear cycle

[leea-1334]

And it only gets worse now,,, I actually thought ETH would not follow Bitcoin down this weekend too, specifically because of the successful testnet merge where everything really seemed to go according to plan.

That certainly I won't believe, always and I think it was forever to see altcoins will follow the trend of Bitcoin and ETH have no excuse from that.
It could be hard for the testnet to go successful this time, as if they want then they have to move it during the bull season as the chance is higher than of these days.

We can't underestimate the market, the bear still has influence and is hard to defeat. Yet, we are still hopeful for the growing success of ETH someday, we just need the market to recover, not this testnet, etc.

Well, even Satoshi himself IIRC thought that in 10 years time (which is about now) that some other type of blockchain would break away and maybe even displace Bitcoin, so in this scenario he thought it was possible that some other alt would achieve a different sort of idea. Only ETH to me is the one coming close to that but you're right, not now and not for a long time.