[2022-07-11] Bloomberg UK - Bitcoin Is More Likely to Hit $10,000 Than $30,000

[pawel7777]

Bitcoin Is More Likely to Hit $10,000 Than $30,000, Survey Finds

source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-10/bitcoin-faces-another-50-drop-wall-street-says-mliv-pulse

Bitcoin bulls beware: Wall Street expects the cryptocurrency’s crash to get a whole lot worse.

The token is more likely to tumble to $10,000, cutting its value roughly in half, than it is to rally back to $30,000, according to 60% of the 950 investors who responded to the latest MLIV Pulse survey. Forty percent saw it going the other way. Bitcoin fell 2.4% to $20,474 on Monday morning in New York
...
The lopsided prediction underscores how bearish investors have become. The crypto industry has been rocked by troubled lenders, collapsed currencies, and an end to the easy money policies of the pandemic that fueled a speculative frenzy in financial markets. .

EDIT: this thread was posted in Press board, no idea why it has been moved to Speculation.

[Poker Player]

And what is Bloomberg UK's credibility on the subject? After seeing so many failed predictions by so many experts I almost better wait for a monkey throwing darts at a dartboard to get it right if it's going to be $30k or $10k.

I like to speculate on price because it is a way of trying to guess the unguessable, although sometimes you can get close, but Bloomgerg's prediction saying what is most "likely" is like saying nothing at all.

[NeuroticFish]

Simple math tells that in the previous cycles the price has fallen
* from ~1170 ATH to ~150 bottom. 7.8 times
* from ~19900 ATH to ~3100 bottom. 6.42 times

This makes numbers like 8846 or 10750 look possible.
On the other hand, let's go linear: 7.8 - 6.42 = 1.38; 6.42 - 1.38 = 5.04 => (69000 / 5.04) 13690 looks more possible than the other variants.


This is all. Will history repeat itself this predictable? I doubt it. But it makes greatly scary news.
Also, can somebody tell those... journalists... that Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, a coin, not a token?

[Oshosondy]

I do not have to care if bitcoin will hit $10000 or not, but I think bitcoin can not be that low. The price of bitcoin has decreased from $69000 to $20000, that is a huge drop. There is nothing bad to start using dollar cost average to invest in bitcoin. This is bear time, it is normal that some analysts will only want to create panic and overestimate just like when some analysts created fomo during bull market by saying bitcoin will hit $100k, but which actually didn't happen.

[Wilhelm]

And they've also been saying Bitcoin is worth 400k a while ago.

All these big names in the traditional world have no credentials in the crypto world.

[ultrloa]

Bitcoin Is More Likely to Hit $10,000 Than $30,000, Survey Finds

source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-10/bitcoin-faces-another-50-drop-wall-street-says-mliv-pulse

Bitcoin bulls beware: Wall Street expects the cryptocurrency’s crash to get a whole lot worse.

The token is more likely to tumble to $10,000, cutting its value roughly in half, than it is to rally back to $30,000, according to 60% of the 950 investors who responded to the latest MLIV Pulse survey. Forty percent saw it going the other way. Bitcoin fell 2.4% to $20,474 on Monday morning in New York
...
The lopsided prediction underscores how bearish investors have become. The crypto industry has been rocked by troubled lenders, collapsed currencies, and an end to the easy money policies of the pandemic that fueled a speculative frenzy in financial markets. .

EDIT: this thread was posted in Press board, no idea why it has been moved to Speculation.

They cannot tell the exact market scenario and maybe they just base their prediction on the current happenings together with sentiments of the people. So I guess its still good to do our own research and never believe any such thing until you see it happening. But we need to prepare if that time to happen since I guess that would be a perfect time to take long position since for sure pump will follow.

[Nrcewker]

And they've also been saying Bitcoin is worth 400k a while ago.

All these big names in the traditional world have no credentials in the crypto world.

Lmao, there is no restriction to predictions, so better they are trying their best to predict.
I am actually surprised to see that they have predicted that Bitcoins will hit more down in this bear market.
I mean it has recently went to 17k usd and bounced back to 22k usd, so it will take atleast two more weeks to fall below 15k usd mark, but hitting 10k is not possible I guess.
I am not saying that Bitcoins will rise, rather it will struggle in this price point for more few weeks.
Let’s see what happens next.

[Wilhelm]

And they've also been saying Bitcoin is worth 400k a while ago.

All these big names in the traditional world have no credentials in the crypto world.

Lmao, there is no restriction to predictions, so better they are trying their best to predict.
I am actually surprised to see that they have predicted that Bitcoins will hit more down in this bear market.
I mean it has recently went to 17k usd and bounced back to 22k usd, so it will take atleast two more weeks to fall below 15k usd mark, but hitting 10k is not possible I guess.
I am not saying that Bitcoins will rise, rather it will struggle in this price point for more few weeks.
Let’s see what happens next.

These analysts have had years of brainwashing on how fiat-ponzi-economies work and legitimately think crypto is the same. They probably view Bitcoin like a stonk that will react like all other stonks in a recession.

[stompix]

These analysts have had years of brainwashing on how fiat-ponzi-economies work and legitimately think crypto is the same. They probably view Bitcoin like a stonk that will react like all other stonks in a recession.

This is where you're deeply mistaken, so drop the tinfoil hat, please.

Whenever I see an article I first look if is in the "opinion" section, if it's a paid article or if it's by a regular author of that website.
In this case, the analyst are actually dedicated to crypto, you can see even the links to their Twitter profiles in the article:
https://twitter.com/emilyjnicolle
https://twitter.com/isabelletanlee

Seriously, this attitude of everyone who doesn't see 300k by tomorrow is paid by the banking cartels is sooooo yesterday!

Simple math tells that in the previous cycles the price has fallen
* from ~1170 ATH to ~150 bottom. 7.8 times
* from ~19900 ATH to ~3100 bottom. 6.42 times

This makes numbers like 8846 or 10750 look possible.
On the other hand, let's go linear: 7.8 - 6.42 = 1.38; 6.42 - 1.38 = 5.04 => (69000 / 5.04) 13690 looks more possible than the other variants.

Following that model, I would be more concerned with the ATH than the bottom
From ~1170 to  ~19990 is 17 times
From ~19990 to ~69045 is 3.45 times
If we go linear is impossible, so we would have to go by a 70% increase at maximum for the next ATH, I'm quite sure that 99% of the users would hate that more than a dip down to even 5000.

[NeuroticFish]

Following that model, I would be more concerned with the ATH than the bottom
From ~1170 to  ~19990 is 17 times
From ~19990 to ~69045 is 3.45 times
If we go linear is impossible, so we would have to go by a 70% increase at maximum for the next ATH, I'm quite sure that 99% of the users would hate that more than a deep down to even 5000.

Linear was the easiest equation to find out. I don't expect it to be overly (or at all) accurate, it was only for the safe of the discussion.
My point was that you can easily find pretty good numbers for a bad scenario. Whether that would indeed get to happen... that's hard to say...


I expect both highs and lows stop following the old patterns (although there's too few data to actually correctly call that pattern). But I don't know what the future holds.

[stompix]

Linear was the easiest equation to find out. I don't expect it to be overly (or at all) accurate, it was only for the safe of the discussion.
My point was that you can easily find pretty good numbers for a bad scenario. Whether that would indeed get to happen... that's hard to say...

My point was around the same if you try to apply a pattern to find out a result that might be close you're not going to like the outcome on the other side and you're not going to like it if you project this pattern even further. If we indeed would see a small decrease in the ratio from low to high, even a 3x would still be a disaster long-term, imagine a dump like this if BTC would be around 300k for example, a few tens of trillion evaporating from the markets. I would need a ton of popcorn to get over that, and probably a second job...

With this myriad of numbers and time stamps and formulas, I wouldn't be amazed to hear someone is drawing a line to 100$! Someone else than proudhon.
But, I'm quite sure Bitcoin will make a move that will break all the patterns next, either going down below everyone's expectations or flipping back and for a few times between 20k or 40k,or something else that as always will catch all experts with the pants downs and will turn one whole Amazon forest worth of charts into toilet paper. It just needs the right sparkle!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Simple math tells that in the previous cycles the price has fallen
* from ~1170 ATH to ~150 bottom. 7.8 times
* from ~19900 ATH to ~3100 bottom. 6.42 times

This makes numbers like 8846 or 10750 look possible.
On the other hand, let's go linear: 7.8 - 6.42 = 1.38; 6.42 - 1.38 = 5.04 => (69000 / 5.04) 13690 looks more possible than the other variants.


This is all. Will history repeat itself this predictable? I doubt it. But it makes greatly scary news.
Also, can somebody tell those... journalists... that Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, a coin, not a token?

We didn’t get a blow off top like we did in previous cycles so maybe we don’t dump as hard & deep as in previous bear markets. We are likely to hit a recession though so maybe you’re right. I think anything below $15,000 is a once in a lifetime buy opportunity.

[Minecache]

I do not have to care if bitcoin will hit $10000 or not, but I think bitcoin can not be that low. The price of bitcoin has decreased from $69000 to $20000, that is a huge drop. There is nothing bad to start using dollar cost average to invest in bitcoin. This is bear time, it is normal that some analysts will only want to create panic and overestimate just like when some analysts created fomo during bull market by saying bitcoin will hit $100k, but which actually didn't happen.

Today, the US announced CPI and inflation increased to a record 9.1% higher than expected, which makes the FED will certainly raise interest rates sharply in the next months of the year. I think the bitcoin price will suffer and will continue to fall but 10k is really an unlikely price for bitcoin.

They're just like us, they're all just predictions, they're just trying to get attention by predicting bitcoin prices like that, which happens often with analysts.

[dragonvslinux]

Simple math tells that in the previous cycles the price has fallen
* from ~1170 ATH to ~150 bottom. 7.8 times
* from ~19900 ATH to ~3100 bottom. 6.42 times

This makes numbers like 8846 or 10750 look possible.
On the other hand, let's go linear: 7.8 - 6.42 = 1.38; 6.42 - 1.38 = 5.04 => (69000 / 5.04) 13690 looks more possible than the other variants.


This is all. Will history repeat itself this predictable? I doubt it. But it makes greatly scary news.
Also, can somebody tell those... journalists... that Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, a coin, not a token?

We didn’t get a blow off top like we did in previous cycles so maybe we don’t dump as hard & deep as in previous bear markets.

This is literally the opinion I've had for over a year now. Unfortunately, it's just an opinion and theory though, even if it's relatively logical.

We are likely to hit a recession though so maybe you’re right.

This is also what I'm starting to realise, maybe price can still drop 80% despite not having a blow off top. Even though based on many other metrics, price has already fallen enough.

I think anything below $15,000 is a once in a lifetime buy opportunity.

Based on price averages, it would be the best average price Bitcoin has ever seen. It'd be more than 6 years of DCA in one move. 2016 Bitcoiners could get jealous.

[NeuroticFish]

We didn’t get a blow off top like we did in previous cycles so maybe we don’t dump as hard & deep as in previous bear markets.

This is literally the opinion I've had for over a year now. Unfortunately, it's just an opinion and theory though, even if it's relatively logical.

I thought the same for more than a year. And such thinking made the last price drop (from 30k down) pretty much take me by surprise.
Now I simply don't know. I hope for the best, but acknowledge the worse is also possible.

[Reid]

40 percent are optimistic. Not a bad number on their survey. What about other surveys?
I guess the panic really affected a lot of small investors especially those who have the thoughts of "get rich fast scheme".
From Bitcoin, sold in exchange for the last trend which is NFT.
But here's the problem, it's slowing down. It's not explosive anymore and some investors are realizing its like a pyramid scheme or if not, its just no buyers are coming after they spent millions of dollars in it.
I will be part of the optimistic ones, 30k+.

[Silberman]

And what is Bloomberg UK's credibility on the subject? After seeing so many failed predictions by so many experts I almost better wait for a monkey throwing darts at a dartboard to get it right if it's going to be $30k or $10k.

I like to speculate on price because it is a way of trying to guess the unguessable, although sometimes you can get close, but Bloomgerg's prediction saying what is most "likely" is like saying nothing at all.

And even if they were right this is nowhere near enough to scare people like us, if bitcoin was being sold at 10k again I will not get depressed or anything like that, instead I will be jumping up and down out of the joy of being able to buy bitcoin again for such a low price, so it seems to me that even if they can scare away the weak hands with statements like that they do not really understand the mentality of the long term holders at all.

[btc_angela]

Again, this is just the repeat of the 2018 bearish market wherein we heard a lot of this social media businessweek magazine like Bloomberg, predicting how bitcoin will fall with this x number etc etc.

So I'm not surprised, and at the same time, will not blame them. It's their job to create this click bait article. But for those who have followed crypto and bitcoin for at least 4-5 years now, everything is possible, if it hits $10k, then take advantage of it and buy more BTC in our pockets.

[hatshepsut93]

Going to $10k is a bear market scenario that many people already expect, but what would going to $30k right now mean? That $17.6 was the bottom and $30k is the new floor of the bear market? The $30k scenario doesn't sound likely, because the bear market only recently started, and it takes a long time for Bitcoin to reach the absolute bottom. It's more likely that Bitcoin will either go further down, or will stay near where it currently is for a long time. And the recovery to $30k would only happen when Bitcoin will start leaving bear market.

[Kemarit]

Going to $10k is a bear market scenario that many people already expect, but what would going to $30k right now mean? That $17.6 was the bottom and $30k is the new floor of the bear market? The $30k scenario doesn't sound likely, because the bear market only recently started, and it takes a long time for Bitcoin to reach the absolute bottom. It's more likely that Bitcoin will either go further down, or will stay near where it currently is for a long time. And the recovery to $30k would only happen when Bitcoin will start leaving bear market.

Maybe the recovery will be at $30,000 after hitting the all time low at $17,500.

And that's what I'm also saying all along, that the bear market has just started this year and we could seen worst next year wherein we might see the absolute bottom. So for me there will be no recovery in the $30,000 range. If we did then it will still fall down hard that $10,000 might be the bottom.