Your most realistic ATH prediction for the next cycle?

[laredo7mm]

I was also thinking about something like you did. In my opinion, it will be near 150k max but it will not exceed 200k. But one thing most people are certain about is it will break its ATH for sure like it did every time.

But the major concern is how long this bear market will remain. Whales already wiped out some major investors like tesla, celsius, 3A, etc. I am expecting the last bearish move from BTC at the end of this year.

[1715043594]

1715043594

[1715043594]

1715043594

[justdimin]

You’re prediction of 185K is fair and probably most of the member here will agree base on the recent price behavior of Bitcoin on previous cycle. The previous ATH before 69K is around 20K so bu doing an estimate growth, the multiplier of growth we looking for is more or less x3.5 of the ATH which means the next psychological target for new ATH will be above 100K and 200K mark. Price prediction above that range is already insane and not logical at all but who knows? We are all lunatics Bitcoin believer when we dream Bitcoin price will go above 20K when the price is less than a grand. 

100k is a common prediction ever since so why not 185k? Once we are now at those levels, 200k or more is now going to be easier to achieve and will now be the new target by the people. Price prediction above
 200k like for example 300 to 400k is still realistic in my opinion. In case you didn't know, we have a thread here last time which shows the price predictions of those so called experts.

If only you saw that you will say that those are the ones who are insane because some of their predictions can range to 500k up to 1 million u.s dollars. I didn't know if what are their basis on why they can say that because there are no extra information.

[d5000]

The jump down from 20x to 3,5x (2013-17 cycle vs. 2017-21 cycle) was so important that I expect a much lower ATH than what many (including the OP) are expecting. I think the era of "getting rich quick" is gone in the case of Bitcoin (and also ETH), as crypto is a well-known asset now (so the "we are still early adopters" myth isn't really true anymore) and it takes more money to be able to rise the price further. I expect Bitcoin basically behaving like a stock now, although it not necessarily has to follow the stock market (I consider the current situation where both markets are highly correlated, rather special, as there's lot of insecurity in the market due to several crises).

For the next ATH, I have basically two scenarios in mind, which resemble a bit what happened in late 2013 where also a "psychologically important" price level ($1000) was expected to be broken:

1) Once the bull is roaring again, everybody will be focusing on the 100K. This will however trigger massive sales starting in the high 80s/low 90s, with a significant correction. If the upwards tendency afterwards is not strong enough, I expect a high of $87.000-$94.000 and then lower prices in the 50-80K area.

2) If $95.000 is broken, or a second fast upmove reaches $90K again, I think the 100K will be reached. In this case I would expect $120K or $130K, but not much more.

Obviously higher values in the next cycle are also possible, but judging from the slightly disappointing upmove in 2021 and the facts I outlined at the start of the post, I think the probability of >150K in the short to mid term is rather low. I would expect these values, and then maybe a start of the "gold flippening frenzy"*, only after 2025.

*I think the expectation of a "gold flippening" could generate a kind of FOMO more similar to earlier cycles as this would be an extremely important event for the "BTC as store of value" folks. So a jump from e.g. $100K to $500K in a single cycle seems possible. But I think it's too early for that, so the next cycle will be probably a bit disappointing again.

[Lucius]

The jump down from 20x to 3,5x (2013-17 cycle vs. 2017-21 cycle) was so important that I expect a much lower ATH than what many (including the OP) are expecting. I think the era of "getting rich quick" is gone in the case of Bitcoin (and also ETH), as crypto is a well-known asset now (so the "we are still early adopters" myth isn't really true anymore) and it takes more money to be able to rise the price further.

I think we can agree that in the near future (5-10 years) it is unrealistic to expect that 1 BTC will be worth $1 million or maybe even $500k, so from today's perspective no one will make x100 or similar earnings, but even x10 in the period of 5 years regardless of inflation is a great profit for me personally.

As for the early adopters, we cannot compare ourselves to those from the period 2009-2013, which we call the first reward era with a reward of 50 BTC per block, but if we look at how many people have accepted Bitcoin (in one way or another) to date, then even that 5% of the total population doesn't seem that much that anyone is too late to jump on the Bitcoin train.

~snip~

*I think the expectation of a "gold flippening" could generate a kind of FOMO more similar to earlier cycles as this would be an extremely important event for the "BTC as store of value" folks. So a jump from e.g. $100K to $500K in a single cycle seems possible. But I think it's too early for that, so the next cycle will be probably a bit disappointing again.

An interesting theory, but the question is whether it is realistic to expect that Bitcoin will one day become an equal rival to gold in the sense that people will want to exchange gold for digital gold.? Somehow, it doesn't seem to me that central banks will do that, nor countries like Russia or China, which allegedly have the largest gold reserves. In addition, we have so many influential gold bugs who shill gold to the detriment of Bitcoin, with the help of the mainstream media, thus influencing public opinion very strongly.

[Jody.Drummer]

We are all lunatics Bitcoin believer when we dream Bitcoin price will go above 20K when the price is less than a grand. 

Also many of us dream of the day when Bitcoin will be worth $1M.

There was even a guy who said he was going to eat his dick on national TV if he missed the prediction (by the end of 2020), but I think to get there it will take quite a while.

Obviously this takes a very long time and requires more patience there if you really dream of that big price
On the other hand, this actually just goes back to time, apart from the predictions that have happened, this is only an assumption with various data and speculations like this, there are only 2 possibilities, namely true and not. for 2020, this is only a little off but not too much if we are still sure about it.

[wxa7115]

I was also thinking about something like you did. In my opinion, it will be near 150k max but it will not exceed 200k. But one thing most people are certain about is it will break its ATH for sure like it did every time.

But the major concern is how long this bear market will remain. Whales already wiped out some major investors like tesla, celsius, 3A, etc. I am expecting the last bearish move from BTC at the end of this year.

To me this seems like a fair prediction, as bitcoin becomes bigger then it is natural that bull markets are nowhere near as extreme as they were in the past, so a growth of 100% to 150% the current ATH seems like a fair prediction.

That would mean an ATH between 138k and 172k, obviously bitcoin could surprise us and grow past those limits but I think that is a fair prediction taking into account what we know right now about bitcoin and the way it moves.

[DoublerHunter]

We are all lunatics Bitcoin believer when we dream Bitcoin price will go above 20K when the price is less than a grand.  

Also many of us dream of the day when Bitcoin will be worth $1M.

There was even a guy who said he was going to eat his dick on national TV if he missed the prediction (by the end of 2020), but I think to get there it will take quite a while.

Obviously this takes a very long time and requires more patience there if you really dream of that big price
On the other hand, this actually just goes back to time, apart from the predictions that have happened, this is only an assumption with various data and speculations like this, there are only 2 possibilities, namely true and not. for 2020, this is only a little off but not too much if we are still sure about it.

^We never know when it will go happen because still it is unpredictable.
But my prediction is still positive, if the BTC price previous ATH was doubled the last year in 2017, it is possible it will happen again. It seems like $140k-150k seems very fair enough that we will reach that amount as a new ATH.
I still have positive doubt that BTC will hit that amount in the future but of course, there is no time frame for that.

[bestcoins1]

Obviously this takes a very long time and requires more patience there if you really dream of that big price
On the other hand, this actually just goes back to time, apart from the predictions that have happened, this is only an assumption with various data and speculations like this, there are only 2 possibilities, namely true and not. for 2020, this is only a little off but not too much if we are still sure about it.

It is very clear, it is more speculation and assumptions based on data that has existed and coincidentally always has a long duration so it still requires patience even though it does not have a certainty because I am more confident in the increasing number of demand and supply in the market so that it can have an effect on increasing future prices.

[adaseb]

For the next cycle will be maybe around $100K or so. Maybe $150K, we aren’t going to get a 20x type of move like we did in the past. The higher it goes the higher the market cap will be and hence why you can’t expect crazy $1M predictions and such.

Also keep in mind that it doesn’t matter what price it tops at, matters what your average is. Say it tops at $150K and you bought at $15K you still get a 10x in your return.

[lionheart78]

I think the $69k was the peak of this cycle, which was only 3.5X the previous ATH. I believe that going forward we are not going to have higher returns, so I would expect that in the next cycle, the price will clearly exceed $100k but not break $200k.

Given this data, I do not think that the next ATH would give the same percentage, 350% of the previous high.  Since the increase of Bitcoin ATH from 2013 to 2017 is 2000% and the increase of Bitcoin ATH from 2017 to 2021 is 350%, I might take the path of calculating the quotient between ATH cycle and apply it to the next cycle.  So taking 2000%/350% = 5.71 ratios, so possibly the next ATH would be 350%/5.71 = 61.3% more than the 2021 ATH, so possibly the next Ath would be around  $111,297 -   so getting the BTC next ATH price range would be in between $100k and $150k.

[Vaskiy]

Obviously this takes a very long time and requires more patience there if you really dream of that big price
On the other hand, this actually just goes back to time, apart from the predictions that have happened, this is only an assumption with various data and speculations like this, there are only 2 possibilities, namely true and not. for 2020, this is only a little off but not too much if we are still sure about it.

It is very clear, it is more speculation and assumptions based on data that has existed and coincidentally always has a long duration so it still requires patience even though it does not have a certainty because I am more confident in the increasing number of demand and supply in the market so that it can have an effect on increasing future prices.

I believe in the growth as the user rate keeps increasing with time than falling down. This will surely increase the demand. The market is in good condition, though we're in the bearish trend. Even at this situation it is possible for users to make some profit out of the fluctuation. Only thing the users needs to do is analyse and observe the market changes. By the next cycle it'll probably move above $100k.

[tippytoes]

Obviously this takes a very long time and requires more patience there if you really dream of that big price
On the other hand, this actually just goes back to time, apart from the predictions that have happened, this is only an assumption with various data and speculations like this, there are only 2 possibilities, namely true and not. for 2020, this is only a little off but not too much if we are still sure about it.

It is very clear, it is more speculation and assumptions based on data that has existed and coincidentally always has a long duration so it still requires patience even though it does not have a certainty because I am more confident in the increasing number of demand and supply in the market so that it can have an effect on increasing future prices.

I believe in the growth as the user rate keeps increasing with time than falling down. This will surely increase the demand. The market is in good condition, though we're in the bearish trend. Even at this situation it is possible for users to make some profit out of the fluctuation. Only thing the users needs to do is analyse and observe the market changes. By the next cycle it'll probably move above $100k.

I am also positive on this market as the number of users and other stakeholders are growing. It means, it may contribute in the demand sooner or later. Worry if you are not hearing any more news from crypto market. But right now, we are still seeing organizations coming up with new projects related to blockchain technology or companies utilizing the crypto concept. This market is still evolving so there's hope about the new ATH in the future.

[d5000]

As for the early adopters, we cannot compare ourselves to those from the period 2009-2013, which we call the first reward era with a reward of 50 BTC per block, but if we look at how many people have accepted Bitcoin (in one way or another) to date, then even that 5% of the total population doesn't seem that much that anyone is too late to jump on the Bitcoin train.

Agree mostly. But it is not clear for which percentage of the population Bitcoin will be useful long-term. The ultra-maximalist view ("Bitcoin will replace fiat") seems rather extreme for me. In my opinion, a realistic, but still very optimistic scenario is that Bitcoin could become the market leader for international transactions, and rival gold in the "store of value" market segment. Of course, if that becomes true, "jumping on the Bitcoin train" can be still a very profitable decision for everybody (it would mean at least a x10 to x20 from now, but you won't get rich investing only $100 or $1000, that's what I meant)

An interesting theory, but the question is whether it is realistic to expect that Bitcoin will one day become an equal rival to gold in the sense that people will want to exchange gold for digital gold.? Somehow, it doesn't seem to me that central banks will do that, nor countries like Russia or China, which allegedly have the largest gold reserves. In addition, we have so many influential gold bugs who shill gold to the detriment of Bitcoin, with the help of the mainstream media, thus influencing public opinion very strongly.

I also am not sure if a gold flippening is realistic - it seems a bit far away still. But it is at least possible, as Bitcoin has a lot of advantages on gold regarding the ease to trade and transfer it. As the gold market was bullish in the last years (even if now a double top seems to be forming) what you say about "gold shilling" in media is to be expected, as there are a lot of folks having bought it for high prices and they need "greater fools" to sell it, so it seems logical that gold holders would put a lot of money in marketing.

But if gold enters a major bear market (i.e. the double top 2020/22 of >2000 USD gets confirmed definitively in a couple of years and sentiment becomes negative, perhaps when inflation starts to get back to normal again in the US and EU) just in times of a bullish Bitcoin move then I expect speculation on a gold flippening to start.

[Poker Player]

The ultra-maximalist view ("Bitcoin will replace fiat") seems rather extreme for me. In my opinion, a realistic, but still very optimistic scenario is that Bitcoin could become the market leader for international transactions, and rival gold in the "store of value" market segment. Of course, if that becomes true, "jumping on the Bitcoin train" can be still a very profitable decision for everybody (it would mean at least a x10 to x20 from now, but you won't get rich investing only $100 or $1000, that's what I meant)

I see the possibility of Bitcoin replacing fiat as almost impossible, although I would like to, but we should not confuse wishes with reality.

We must be aware of where we are. The returns in the early years were spectacular, but then the future was much more uncertain and many people even lost their private keys because Bitcoin was worth little, was very volatile and was a recent experiment.

Today it is more established, and in return the future returns will probably be lower, but it is a very good bet for the future.

[philipma1957]

The jump down from 20x to 3,5x (2013-17 cycle vs. 2017-21 cycle) was so important that I expect a much lower ATH than what many (including the OP) are expecting. I think the era of "getting rich quick" is gone in the case of Bitcoin (and also ETH), as crypto is a well-known asset now (so the "we are still early adopters" myth isn't really true anymore) and it takes more money to be able to rise the price further. I expect Bitcoin basically behaving like a stock now, although it not necessarily has to follow the stock market (I consider the current situation where both markets are highly correlated, rather special, as there's lot of insecurity in the market due to several crises).

For the next ATH, I have basically two scenarios in mind, which resemble a bit what happened in late 2013 where also a "psychologically important" price level ($1000) was expected to be broken:

1) Once the bull is roaring again, everybody will be focusing on the 100K. This will however trigger massive sales starting in the high 80s/low 90s, with a significant correction. If the upwards tendency afterwards is not strong enough, I expect a high of $87.000-$94.000 and then lower prices in the 50-80K area.

2) If $95.000 is broken, or a second fast upmove reaches $90K again, I think the 100K will be reached. In this case I would expect $120K or $130K, but not much more.

Obviously higher values in the next cycle are also possible, but judging from the slightly disappointing upmove in 2021 and the facts I outlined at the start of the post, I think the probability of >150K in the short to mid term is rather low. I would expect these values, and then maybe a start of the "gold flippening frenzy"*, only after 2025.

*I think the expectation of a "gold flippening" could generate a kind of FOMO more similar to earlier cycles as this would be an extremely important event for the "BTC as store of value" folks. So a jump from e.g. $100K to $500K in a single cycle seems possible. But I think it's too early for that, so the next cycle will be probably a bit disappointing again.

Huge factor is just how common gold really is.

We have had persistent rumors of huge gold reserves just around the corner.

A) the golden asteroid
B) the huge African base deposit.

It they truly exist and  are quickly developed gold will lose a ton of dollar per oz valuation.

This could really push a flight to other truly rare metals or maybe just maybe fomo to btc.

Second factor is does eth do pos and crash like it should.


and lastly do we have 9-11 years of inflation?


all big factors.

my pick is btc struggles a lot for next 10 years and inflation hangs in there.

which will make USA series I bonds a very good hedge against BTC.

we will be lucky to pass 70k in next 2-3 years.

Maybe april 2025 we hit higher and do 100k.

but i do not see 70k for next 2-3 years.

[Joshapat]

If we look at the current market conditions, it seems difficult to make new Ath, it might happen in early 2023, even I only set the highest target price is $ 45k, of course if the price of August can reach $ 30k, if it is still what it is now then the price is likely The highest in 2022 is lower than $ 45K.

[cabron]

Its like counting already our unrealized gains, this is why the government is also planning to tax our imagined profit. Anyway if indeed this is the start of bulls waking up, $100K is almost possible in the next ATH.

The jump down from 20x to 3,5x (2013-17 cycle vs. 2017-21 cycle) was so important that I expect a much lower ATH than what many (including the OP) are expecting. I think the era of "getting rich quick" is gone in the case of Bitcoin (and also ETH), as crypto is a well-known asset now (so the "we are still early adopters" myth isn't really true anymore) and it takes more money to be able to rise the price further. I expect Bitcoin basically behaving like a stock now, although it not necessarily has to follow the stock market (I consider the current situation where both markets are highly correlated, rather special, as there's lot of insecurity in the market due to several crises).

For the next ATH, I have basically two scenarios in mind, which resemble a bit what happened in late 2013 where also a "psychologically important" price level ($1000) was expected to be broken:

1) Once the bull is roaring again, everybody will be focusing on the 100K. This will however trigger massive sales starting in the high 80s/low 90s, with a significant correction. If the upwards tendency afterwards is not strong enough, I expect a high of $87.000-$94.000 and then lower prices in the 50-80K area.

2) If $95.000 is broken, or a second fast upmove reaches $90K again, I think the 100K will be reached. In this case I would expect $120K or $130K, but not much more.

Obviously higher values in the next cycle are also possible, but judging from the slightly disappointing upmove in 2021 and the facts I outlined at the start of the post, I think the probability of >150K in the short to mid term is rather low. I would expect these values, and then maybe a start of the "gold flippening frenzy"*, only after 2025.

*I think the expectation of a "gold flippening" could generate a kind of FOMO more similar to earlier cycles as this would be an extremely important event for the "BTC as store of value" folks. So a jump from e.g. $100K to $500K in a single cycle seems possible. But I think it's too early for that, so the next cycle will be probably a bit disappointing again.

Huge factor is just how common gold really is.

We have had persistent rumors of huge gold reserves just around the corner.

A) the golden asteroid
B) the huge African base deposit.

It they truly exist and  are quickly developed gold will lose a ton of dollar per oz valuation.

This could really push a flight to other truly rare metals or maybe just maybe fomo to btc.

Second factor is does eth do pos and crash like it should.


and lastly do we have 9-11 years of inflation?


all big factors.

my pick is btc struggles a lot for next 10 years and inflation hangs in there.

which will make USA series I bonds a very good hedge against BTC.

we will be lucky to pass 70k in next 2-3 years.

Maybe april 2025 we hit higher and do 100k.

but i do not see 70k for next 2-3 years.

I doubt that. How should it suppress BTC price when ETH is not even known by regular people. This POS is not even sure whether it could pump the price, for all we know this will just make ETH sink because the institutions are all trying to be the decision maker of the network. They may buy at first but will shove it to the ground also.

[Reatim]

If we look at the current market conditions, it seems difficult to make new Ath, it might happen in early 2023, even I only set the highest target price is $ 45k, of course if the price of August can reach $ 30k, if it is still what it is now then the price is likely The highest in 2022 is lower than $ 45K.

what is being asked is CYCLE and not this year or the next so OP is not asking for how much today or tomorrow or the whole 2022 .

45k is very decent if we will be talking this year alone , this is supposed to be a Bear market because we have just finished a bear 2021 so the expectation this year would be something lower than 20k till end year.

[Lucius]

Agree mostly. But it is not clear for which percentage of the population Bitcoin will be useful long-term. The ultra-maximalist view ("Bitcoin will replace fiat") seems rather extreme for me. In my opinion, a realistic, but still very optimistic scenario is that Bitcoin could become the market leader for international transactions, and rival gold in the "store of value" market segment. Of course, if that becomes true, "jumping on the Bitcoin train" can be still a very profitable decision for everybody (it would mean at least a x10 to x20 from now, but you won't get rich investing only $100 or $1000, that's what I meant)

I have never convinced myself, or rather deceived myself, that Bitcoin will replace fiat in the near future - not only because no government in the world will allow it, but because the average person is not ready to reject established norms and rules and accept an alternative. I would dare to say that such changes require decades or more, because old habits, no matter how bad they are, are difficult to change - and changes come with some new generations.

If we are talking about the profitability aspect of investing today or tomorrow, then I would distinguish between those who live in countries of medium or high standards, and those who live in countries of the third world. For some, a profit of $500 or $1000 would mean a lot, because the level of poverty in which some people live is hard to imagine, and such money can help them direct their lives in a much more positive direction.

I also am not sure if a gold flippening is realistic - it seems a bit far away still. But it is at least possible, as Bitcoin has a lot of advantages on gold regarding the ease to trade and transfer it. As the gold market was bullish in the last years (even if now a double top seems to be forming) what you say about "gold shilling" in media is to be expected, as there are a lot of folks having bought it for high prices and they need "greater fools" to sell it, so it seems logical that gold holders would put a lot of money in marketing.

But if gold enters a major bear market (i.e. the double top 2020/22 of >2000 USD gets confirmed definitively in a couple of years and sentiment becomes negative, perhaps when inflation starts to get back to normal again in the US and EU) just in times of a bullish Bitcoin move then I expect speculation on a gold flippening to start.

A lot has been said about the advantages of Bitcoin over gold and vice versa, but gold still enjoys the great trust of people and it will be difficult to give it up because they understand it and can literally feel it. One of the reasons why most people hesitate to invest in Bitcoin is because they don't understand it, and from personal experience they often ask where the Bitcoin they bought is actually located. When you tell them that it's on the blockchain and that the private key or seed they have is the only way to access their Bitcoin, they become a bit skeptical.

What I want to say is that people's perception of value is still such that they hardly accept digital assets in the same way as they accept gold, silver or precious stones.

[Wilhelm]

You’re prediction of 185K is fair and probably most of the member here will agree base on the recent price behavior of Bitcoin on previous cycle. The previous ATH before 69K is around 20K so bu doing an estimate growth, the multiplier of growth we looking for is more or less x3.5 of the ATH which means the next psychological target for new ATH will be above 100K and 200K mark. Price prediction above that range is already insane and not logical at all but who knows? We are all lunatics Bitcoin believer when we dream Bitcoin price will go above 20K when the price is less than a grand. 

100k is a common prediction ever since so why not 185k? Once we are now at those levels, 200k or more is now going to be easier to achieve and will now be the new target by the people. Price prediction above
 200k like for example 300 to 400k is still realistic in my opinion. In case you didn't know, we have a thread here last time which shows the price predictions of those so called experts.

If only you saw that you will say that those are the ones who are insane because some of their predictions can range to 500k up to 1 million u.s dollars. I didn't know if what are their basis on why they can say that because there are no extra information.

Here's some food for thought... the approx ATLs eyeballed from the chart
2013 $x0
2015 $x00
2018 $x000
2022 $x0000 (17.5k)

So 2025 should have an ATL of $100k+
2030 should go $1M if this holds...

Now think of the ATHs. I still think the $69k was way too low because of the bad macro economic effects. The next 2 years could also be retracted years.