Is the US economy in recession?

[Wenbing]

The economic data of the US is clearly showing a two consecutive negative GDP growth rate. While some analysts believe that the economy is in a recession, economic advisers are saying there is no major decline in economic activities.

What are the core elements of a recession?

How do we quantify a recession?

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[Gyfts]

Slow job growth in the private sector, low consumer spending, low wage increases, among other things.

Some of these are lagging indicators. You've seen hiring slow down, but job layoffs and unemployment won't happen contemporaneous to the GDP reports. The economy is generally slow moving unless there's market shock. Anyone suggesting that the U.S. economy is not in recession will point out these lagging indicators which will eventually catch up to capture the true state of the U.S. economy. They won't have these numbers to rely on for long.

[Wenbing]

Slow job growth in the private sector, low consumer spending, low wage increases, among other things.

Some of these are lagging indicators. You've seen hiring slow down, but job layoffs and unemployment won't happen contemporaneous to the GDP reports. The economy is generally slow moving unless there's market shock. Anyone suggesting that the U.S. economy is not in recession will point out these lagging indicators which will eventually catch up to capture the true state of the U.S. economy. They won't have these numbers to rely on for long.

Yes, I think the two negative consecutive GDP growth rate is a symptom of recession.

[Doan9269]

What are the core elements of a recession?

Inflation
Decrease GDP
Unstable economy
Unemployment
Increased Poverty
Natural disasters
Budget deficit

These are some of the elementary causes or determining factors to recession, when what you have on ground is unabke to meet uo with the needs demanded within a country after considering both the input and output of the natural resources and man power but still lacking far behind

How do we quantify a recession?

When there's a constant inflation and poverty levels increasing instead of decreasing while all the above mentioned determinant rrmain constant

[stompix]

The economic data of the US is clearly showing a two consecutive negative GDP growth rate. While some analysts believe that the economy is in a recession, economic advisers are saying there is no major decline in economic activities.

And both are right, one of the conditions of technical recessions (as not everybody agrees with the 2 quarters period) has been met while on the other hand there are different signs that economic activity is not really declining with more and more jobs being added and taken and with the US finally inches away from reaching pre covid levels of employment:

The labor force participation rate, at 62.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 59.9 percent, were little changed over the month. Both measures remain below their February 2020 values (63.4 percent and 61.2 percent, respectively)

So it will come down to definitions, the easy one has been already met, and the more complicated one, like NBER is using not yet, and of course, for every Republicans we're already in a recession and for every Democrat, things are going great.
To add more complications to this, even if the decline was 0.9%, a 4-5% decline wouldn't have raised any questions as things were clear.

What are the core elements of a recession?

Employment, consumption expenditure, manufacturing, retail, and trade sales.
When they all go down, you clearly are in a recession.

LE:
FixeD employment as it didn't make sense.

[Wenbing]

The economic data of the US is clearly showing a two consecutive negative GDP growth rate. While some analysts believe that the economy is in a recession, economic advisers are saying there is no major decline in economic activities.

And both are right, one of the conditions of technical recessions (as not everybody agrees with the 2 quarters period) has been met while on the other hand there are different signs that economic activity is not really declining with more and more jobs being added and taken and with the US finally inches away from reaching pre covid levels of employment:

The labor force participation rate, at 62.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 59.9 percent, were little changed over the month. Both measures remain below their February 2020 values (63.4 percent and 61.2 percent, respectively)

So it will come down to definitions, the easy one has been already met, and the more complicated one, like NBER is using not yet, and of course, for every Republicans we're already in a recession and for every Democrat, things are going great.
To add more complications to this, even if the decline was 0.9%, a 4-5% decline wouldn't have raised any questions as things were clear.

What are the core elements of a recession?

Unemployment, consumption expenditure, manufacturing, retail, and trade sales.
When they all go down, you clearly are in a recession.

Yes, we can say recession at this level is not severe because it's inflation that is fueling it. But, it becomes severe when other data signalling decline in economic activities.

[FatFork]

According to Investopedia, a recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. The term is typically used to describe a cycle that goes on for six months or more and lasts at least two quarters. In light of the Commerce Department's announcement that GDP declined by 0.9% in the second quarter, a second consecutive quarter of contraction, many are declaring the U.S. economy in recession. But, is it really? I don't think it's that simple.

[Haunebu]

I don't think so. Inflation is on the rise around the world, but this doesn't imply that the US economy or many other economies are in recession. COVID has definitely hit the global economy hard, but it's already recovering in a slow and steady manner.

If inflation continues to rise, the US economy will definitely be in recession though I don't expect that to happen.

[Fortify]

The economic data of the US is clearly showing a two consecutive negative GDP growth rate. While some analysts believe that the economy is in a recession, economic advisers are saying there is no major decline in economic activities.

What are the core elements of a recession?

How do we quantify a recession?

There are different ways to quantify recessions around the world, most countries see a decline of two quarters in a row as a recession. However it seems that America requires some other criteria to additionally qualify - like the unemployment rate rising during the same time period. It slightly makes sense, however we seem to be in this bizarre netherworld where all the indicators are flashing bright red and the sirens are wailing, but the stock markets are still up in the sky (well, besides the NASDAQ which was always highly overvalued). Generally though, it feels like this will be a slow and steady ride, but a big jolt could quickly cause a fast drop like we see in many recessions before - the shock always comes from somewhere new.

[$anounimus$]

Very interesting, It is very useful to start by understanding what a recession is, as it is often confused with depression. A typical year has its ups and downs. The economy goes up, then down—sometimes sharply. This can be an interesting time to invest in the market, especially if you have a very long investment time frame.

It's hard to say if the US is in a recession because many factors are considered. If the economic growth rate is negative, it is not a positive sign. The US economy has not faced this kind of turmoil in a long time. While some believe we are in a recession, others believe there is no sign of a slowdown in economic activity.

[kryptqnick]

Given that others names the traits of a recession already, I'll comment on whether it's coming. I think the US economy is entering a recession (or, as I've heard some people call it, 'something that will feel a lot like recession). Maybe it's not fully showing yet because we're at a start. But to be fair, I don't think it's just the US; it's the global economy trend which is expected every once in a while and then with the pandemic it was supposed to become evident at some point.

[ivankoh]

The economic data of the US is clearly showing a two consecutive negative GDP growth rate. While some analysts believe that the economy is in a recession, economic advisers are saying there is no major decline in economic activities.

What are the core elements of a recession?

How do we quantify a recession?

I think that whether there is a recession or not, the US economy is still in a very alarming position.  GDP growth for 2 consecutive quarters was "negative" as a result of the Fed's adjustment to raise interest rates, causing a decrease in consumption output/demand.  Accompanied by inflation, high energy prices, interrupted supply... I guess even if the US gets through the door of recession, the result will also mean that the US economy will also shrink, economic prospects  slow economy.

Perhaps the most optimistic thing for the US economy is the hope of Russia defaulting on its debt.  Lol

[odolvlobo]

What are the core elements of a recession?

Inflation
...

How do we quantify a recession?

When there's a constant inflation and poverty levels increasing instead of decreasing while all the above mentioned determinant rrmain constant

Inflation is not a component of recession. There are recessions both with and without inflation. However, inflation has typically preceded recessions that are the result of speculative bubbles or central bank action.

[Wakate]

The United States had entered into recession but it is still unclear to many people about what's going on. The Biden regime has been a time where we all have to fix our belts and get ready for the worse because this looks like the beginning of inflation and we should be expecting more. It is not in the US alone that inflation is affecting people and also in other parts of the world where people exist. The effect of the covid-19 had affected many countries making things to go wrong.

[Hydrogen]

I think a legitimate case could be made for economies of the world being in a recession since 2020, when the COVID pandemic hit.

Drug overdoses, suicide, violence and crime all increase significantly during recessions. And I think everyone around the world is witnessing an uptick in these trends. Federal reserve (QE) quantitative easing and global monetary helicopter drops can mitigate the negative effects, over the short term. But eventually the shoe will drop and the harsh reality will be felt by everyone. If they haven't already noticed effects in their food and gas bills.

Hardcore doom and gloomers would say the US economy has been in a recession since the financial crisis of 2008, and never truly recovered. The US stock market did trend upwards since 2008. Which many view as an indication of a recovery. But I think that many are noticing stock market numbers can be influenced. Pfizer was delisted from the NASDAQ index. Exxon was delisted from the DOW. Considering pfizer and exxon both reaped high profits from COVID vaccines and rising cost of oil, respectively. The turn of events surrounding those delistings becomes an interesting topic.

[Gozie51]

The United States had entered into recession but it is still unclear to many people about what's going on. The Biden regime has been a time where we all have to fix our belts and get ready for the worse because this looks like the beginning of inflation and we should be expecting more. It is not in the US alone that inflation is affecting people and also in other parts of the world where people exist. The effect of the covid-19 had affected many countries making things to go wrong.

This is a sign of recession. Inflation is felt highly in an economy where recession is setting in but I'm not sure if USA is already facing this but it has witnessed increase inflation during the Biden administration. Another factor is when cash flow is not circulating. If fiat and the means of better living is in the hands of few and far from the reach of the masses. This is a sign for recession and high level of borrowing. I don't think US is lacking finance on their economy for now.

[sovie]

The United States had entered into recession but it is still unclear to many people about what's going on. The Biden regime has been a time where we all have to fix our belts and get ready for the worse because this looks like the beginning of inflation and we should be expecting more. It is not in the US alone that inflation is affecting people and also in other parts of the world where people exist. The effect of the covid-19 had affected many countries making things to go wrong.

This is a sign of recession. Inflation is felt highly in an economy where recession is setting in but I'm not sure if USA is already facing this but it has witnessed increase inflation during the Biden administration. Another factor is when cash flow is not circulating. If fiat and the means of better living is in the hands of few and far from the reach of the masses. This is a sign for recession and high level of borrowing. I don't think US is lacking finance on their economy for now.

Biden has rush to Saudi Arabia to ask for the oil and gas supply.
He has to survive midterm election and for that he has to win the heart of everyone. But I think Biden administration is a poor administration and I believe Trump America was a better America.

[stompix]

This is a sign of recession. Inflation is felt highly in an economy where recession is setting in but I'm not sure if USA is already facing this but it has witnessed increase inflation during the Biden administration.

Guys, just stop with the inflation thing!

Japan has experienced a recession on the same levels as the US is doing now without having inflation at all, the great depression in 1929 happened while there was ample deflation, and inflation was barely above 3% during the 2007-2008 crisis in the EU and US, the largest inflation Greece recorded while near defaulting was 4.71 %.

Biden has rush to Saudi Arabia to ask for the oil and gas supply.

Since when does the US, the largest exporter of LNG in the world need gas from Saudi Arabia?

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Yes, it is in recession. There is a clear definition of what a recession is and according to it, the US is in recession. What happens is that it is not in the interest of the Biden administration to say that the USA is in a recession for the next elections, as if the people on the street are not feeling the problems of the economy in their own flesh, and it is in the interest of the Republicans to try to make the economy look worse than it is, because although the economy is technically in recession, the downturn is not as bad as the Republicans want to make it out to be.

[palle11]

Yes, it is in recession. There is a clear definition of what a recession is and according to it, the US is in recession. What happens is that it is not in the interest of the Biden administration to say that the USA is in a recession for the next elections, as if the people on the street are not feeling the problems of the economy in their own flesh, and it is in the interest of the Republicans to try to make the economy look worse than it is, because although the economy is technically in recession, the downturn is not as bad as the Republicans want to make it out to be.

I think it is all politics playing out with the US economy. The government of the day trying to hide the reality on ground while inflation has increased in the economy, the less income earners are feeling the hit and the opposition watching and blowing the heat more. I believe the US economy is having some economic indices not favourable to them and that may be the effect of trying to protect the NATO territory also.