Is the US economy in recession?

[Mauser]

What are the core elements of a recession?

How do we quantify a recession?

Like you said, a recession is defined as two consecuitive quarters of negative economic growth. In economics textbook terms the USA is in recession, but the Biden admistration is trying hard to avoid that word. The issue here is that we are in a high inflation environment that reduces economic growth. Usually this would be a stagflation, failing growth during times of high inflation. But the unemployment rate is not high enough for it to be a real stagflation. So the government argues that economic indicators are not accurate and economy is stronger than it appears. It remains to be seen how the growth rate will be next quarter, if its negative again I don't think people can avoid calling it a recession.

[justdimin]

America and any country are always threatened with inflation and recession, Fiat who has no basis or guarantee becomes a problem when the central bank cannot control its value, and this is what makes many experts find the best solution, namely with a decentralized system that locks stock so that inflation can be eliminated .

Governments do not have any other option, they are not bound by the ignoring capability of bitcoin, bitcoin may have caused a lot of people to lose a lot of money and there is nobody at the top to care, it's decentralized so when you lose a lot, then you lose a lot.

But in a government if your citizens are losing a lot, and they are in poverty and lost millions, you have to do something or you would not be elected again ever, you would be disgraced out of office and that is not something politicians would want. This is why I believe that they did this and they would have done it again if given chance because it allows them to get a good amount of "saving the face" chances when the elections come.

[KingsDen]

America and any country are always threatened with inflation and recession, Fiat who has no basis or guarantee becomes a problem when the central bank cannot control its value, and this is what makes many experts find the best solution, namely with a decentralized system that locks stock so that inflation can be eliminated .

Probably every economy is in recession. It is either a short term recession, long term recession or future recession. As the year goes by, purchasing power across the countries reduce. A property you bought with a certain amount this year, you might not get it again in same price next year. So, every country us travelling in same recession lane and inflation.
While the big countries might take a while and prove difficult to notice, smaller countries suffer much. But on the global index, it will surely be known that a country is no longer in it's stable state.

[Kadal Ijo]

The USA economy becomes a global economic and signal, if the USA recession economy, there will be many major impacts on global, namely directly affected, in my opinion the USA can always overcome economic problems, if there is a recession then this will not be long and the economy will soon recover.

[yoyoni]

The U.S. economy is already in recession, inflation is high, the Fed is raising interest rates, the stock market is in a bear market, and stagflation has all informed the recession. Diess responded that the U.S. economy was in a "transition period." But I don't think so.

[darewaller]

Probably every economy is in recession. It is either a short term recession, long term recession or future recession. As the year goes by, purchasing power across the countries reduce. A property you bought with a certain amount this year, you might not get it again in same price next year. So, every country us travelling in same recession lane and inflation.
While the big countries might take a while and prove difficult to notice, smaller countries suffer much. But on the global index, it will surely be known that a country is no longer in it's stable state.

That's because the whole world went through the pandemic together, meaning all world had to stop, and that means everyone had to get paid even while not working, which meant printing money, which meant high inflation, which meant higher rates to withdraw that money from the markets, which results with recession. This type of track happened in all nations because we all went through the same things together.

I am not saying that it is the best available option, or a great life to be in, but at the very least I understand why it is happening. This is why I think it is clear to me why people are worried about something worse to happen in the future, because they saw how bad it could get.

[2stout]

It appears we are in global slowdown for the most part but there are some mixed signals as to whether the US is in a recession, even though inflation makes it feel as such but unemployment rate and hiring sort of hints at something different.  In either case, time will tell, particularly this winter.

[globalpain]

It appears we are in global slowdown for the most part but there are some mixed signals as to whether the US is in a recession, even though inflation makes it feel as such but unemployment rate and hiring sort of hints at something different.  In either case, time will tell, particularly this winter.

the latest news CPI has dropped to 8.7%, of course inflation could happen because the CPI was at 9%, and that is the highest level since the last 41 years,
there is news on the internet and several newspapers, if America ends inflation and recession, then there is a possibility that Bitcoin will also be affected,
whether it will have a positive or negative impact, the important thing is to be careful

[Gayong88]

What are the core elements of a recession?

I think, Not only is the US economy currently in a recession, this is inseparable from the slow economic recovery since World War II. However, it is important to remember that the US economy is a strong economy. It won't go down forever and will soon regain its footing and bounce back.

The truth is that the US economy is undergoing a series of changes and will continue to do so. What we've experienced so far are just a few bumps in the road. As a result, there should be little reason to worry about the state of the economy. With governments around the world pushing ahead with stimulus efforts, employment appears to be at its most volatile at the moment. Another potential recession may lie ahead, but it's too early to say if it will happen or when it will.

[Die_empty]

The U.S. economy is already in recession, inflation is high, the Fed is raising interest rates, the stock market is in a bear market, and stagflation has all informed the recession. Diess responded that the U.S. economy was in a "transition period." But I don't think so.

The world is suffering from the effect of the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Most globally sound economies are falling into recession. America's case is not peculiar because household debt is increasing because of high cost of goods and inflation. But America has a very sound economy that can withstand the effect of this global economic challenge. 

[lucates]

I don't think so. Inflation is on the rise around the world, but this doesn't imply that the US economy or many other economies are in recession. COVID has definitely hit the global economy hard, but it's already recovering in a slow and steady manner.

If inflation continues to rise, the US economy will definitely be in recession though I don't expect that to happen.

If the US economy enters a recession, the world enters a recession. It happened in the 1930s and 2008. But in 2022 despite the contraction in gdp, the US economy created around 2.7 million new jobs. That's why the higher officials in the US have argued that  the US economy is not in recession even if the GDP contracts for two successive quarters.

[Obari]

I do not think that the US will ever go into recession because I know they worked so hard to grow the countries economy in the past centuries the United States of America has been a country with a great and lovely vision there is no nation on earth that does not have a business deal with them although the whole world went through a lot of crisis which we all fought to overcome but has nothing to drain the countries economy
The world today is making sure to go against anything that will cause each nations downfall especially the United States being the world power

[Captain Corporate]

I think its not going to really happen just yet, that will take a bit of a while. I think the problem would be a bit more about what will happen after July, that could actually make some changes in order to cause it. I need to focus on the fact that inflation could be a lot higher than what it is when that happens and when inflation is higher than what it is right now then recession would not be a problem. I prefer inflation over recession, recession means there is no money when things are still expensive, inflation at least means we are having a problem but also we are making more to cover that difference as well. This is why its not in recession now, but the future may hold a recession in the near future as well, so we need to be careful about it.

[gaston castano]

In 2020, the US experienced a significant economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to widespread business closures, job losses, and a sharp decline in GDP. However, by the end of 2020, the economy had shown signs of recovery, and growth continued into 2021, although at a slower pace than before the pandemic.

[naikturun]

actually many say so, because during the 2020 pandemic, the government printed a lot of money and distributed it to their citizens for not working.
but other theories also say that America is still within reasonable limits.
it depends on who the media is reporting on it.
but for the truth we can see directly the impact on the country by time.

[abralzain17]

The current economic recession is not only faced by Uncle Sam's country or America, but almost all countries are experiencing it. As for countries that will experience an economic recession, they will continue to work hard to reduce inflation in their countries. there are many countries that continue to strive to avoid the economic recession that will befall their country, America for example, according to the recognition of the US finance minister Jannet yallen, inflation in their country has started to decline in the range of 6%, but it is still at a high level compared to their target is 2%. even so, according to the US finance minister economic growth in America has started to appear and the country will avoid an economic recession.

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[disconnectme]

I think people are confusing recession and inflation, both have a negative effect on the economy of a nation but they are different. Inflation is a rise in prices, which can be translated as the decline of purchasing power over time, as purchasing power drops and people suffer the consequences. A recession is a significant, widespread, and prolonged downturn in economic activity. A common rule of thumb is that two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth mean recession.

[Unbunplease]

The more they talk about recession, the less likely it is to happen. I think recessions are a scarecrow just to take more assets out of weak hands. There will be a presidential election in the U.S. in November 2024. So it's unlikely that a recession will actually be allowed to happen. But if President Biden's administration finds a way out, it will give Biden extra points in the presidential race.

[adaseb]

The more they talk about recession, the less likely it is to happen. I think recessions are a scarecrow just to take more assets out of weak hands. There will be a presidential election in the U.S. in November 2024. So it's unlikely that a recession will actually be allowed to happen. But if President Biden's administration finds a way out, it will give Biden extra points in the presidential race.

Yes I know since everybody expect a recession then there won’t be one however it seems like we will at least get a minor recession and won’t get a soft landing.

However it doesn’t mean that stocks or crypto will crash. Remember when we hit massive unemployment during Covid while the stock market hit new highs. Might be the same story since the fed might have to cut rates and lead to more money printing and it’ll cause stocks to soar higher.

[virasog]

The economic data of the US is clearly showing a two consecutive negative GDP growth rate. While some analysts believe that the economy is in a recession, economic advisers are saying there is no major decline in economic activities.

What are the core elements of a recession?

How do we quantify a recession?

In the social media we see that US is near a recession, the inflation rates are all time high, the banks in the US are collapsing and the dollar is under severe pressure, but this is what the outside world sees.

One of my relatives lives in the US and when i talked to them, they say that situation is not so much worse as it is being presented. The US still enjoys free education and free medicine, and the common man does not face any issues which we assume sitting outside the US.

I think it will take another decade before we may see the US economy in recession. Right now the economy is strong enough to survive another few years.