1 Billion Bitcoin users by 2024 is possible with increased access to electricity

[Zlantann]

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Today about 770 million people live without access to electricity, mostly in Africa and Asia. Considering the high cost of buying and maintaining other sources of power, generating set has become the generally accepted source of power. The cheapest generator might cost about $200. While other sources of power would be much more expensive. The average cost of running a small portable generator costs about $30 to $70 per day, while a 15- to 20-kilowatt generator that powers the entire home will cost about $50 to $150 per day. In a region where 85% live on less than $5.50 per day, access to electricity is a major challenge. Most people that are interested in Bitcoin are discouraged because they don’t have access to electricity to power their phone or other appliances that can grant them access to the Bitcoin space. And they cannot afford the cost of buying and running a generator.

There are predictions that Bitcoin can still hit $100,000-$150,000 price mark in few years but the rate at which new consumers are buying and exploring it would determine the price. Bitcoin adoption increased  880% in one year and developing nations had the highest increase. If Bitcoin would achieve the mark of 1 billion users by 2024 and 4 billion users by 2030 then developing nation must have access to major infrastructures like electricity to drive this growth. Interestingly, growth rate in access to internet is currently high in developing countries like in the Sub-Saharan Africa region with a growth rate of over 90%. This shows that developing countries have a rapidly growing interest in the internet and the related innovations.

The economies of developing nations might be very insignificant when compared with developed nations but it can have a positive impact on the Bitcoin space. And this can be achieved if developing nations have access to electricity. Seeking cheap alternative and innovative means of power such as solar powered phones and computers can be a good starting point. Instead of buying an entire solar system which includes batteries, inverter, panel, etc, an affordable phone or laptop with inbuilt solar system would be ideal. These developing nations might no have the financial power, but they have the population.    

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[NotATether]

I would prefer that the electricity flow is stabilized in the rest of Africa. Having constant on/off power for a few hours every day is more annoying than being off the grid and used to it.

[Lucius]

The world population is approaching the figure of 8 billion which should be reached before the end of this year, and only 10% of that would amount to 800 000 million people, which makes the number of 1 billion Bitcoin users by 2024 quite unrealistic if we consider that the current estimates is that about 5% of the world's population has some kind of contact with Bitcoin.

Africa is often mentioned as a continent with great potential in terms of a very large and relatively young population, but without enough resources that enable them to be included in everything that offers access to the Internet and electricity. Of course, this is changing, but it will take a long time until the electric network is built, while the Internet is something that is in a better position because it can become available through mobile networks or via satellite.

A few years ago I watched a documentary about how people in Africa manage to charge their phones at stations that offer such a service, and some are even mobile and use solar panels.

Source

[stompix]

Most people that are interested in Bitcoin are discouraged because they don’t have access to electricity to power their phone or other appliances that can grant them access to the Bitcoin space. And they cannot afford the cost of buying and running a generator.
~
. If Bitcoin would achieve the mark of 1 billion users by 2024 and 4 billion users by 2030 then developing nation must have access to major infrastructures like electricity to drive this growth.

Ok, so not all are using BTC right now because they don't have the electricity to power their phone and this is why we're stuck to 1 billion users till 2024, despite the fact that somehow, magically, the number of smartphone users reached 5.22 billion by the end of 2020.

Bruh, even if the whole of Africa would be without power completely, that's only 1.2 billion, leaving more than the other 6 billion for growth, there is no "MUST". Do you really believe that the growth will come from people who earn less than 5$ a day? Do you think their first choice once they get electricity would be to invest...what? The 30 cents they are left with at the end of the month after barely managing to buy food for their families?

Seriously, those poor people have little access to electricity, clean water, a damn hospital, or a school and the major concern is that they can't buy bitcoins...

[kryptqnick]

I agree that providing access to electricity to more people is extremely important. Then making the Internet widely available is the next step, and ensuing that people can afford devices to frequently access the Internet (a laptop or a smartphone, at least) is next. Prior to all that, we can't expect people who live in poverty and without access to all these basic requirements for using Bitcoin to become interested. But even when all of that is widely available, it doesn't mean people will turn to Bitcoin, as there's a huge difference between the number of active Internet users and Bitcoin users. Creating a fruitful ground is good (and regardless of whether people choose to adopt Bitcoin, they should enjoy access to electricity and the Internet), but it doesn't mean that when these conditions are met, it will automatically lead to higher Bitcoin adoption. And yeah, I don't think that 1 billion by 2024 is realistic.

[franky1]

a solar panel to power a USB charge phone does not require KW's and are not rated at 30x daily income.

i visited africa years ago and went to some remote villages and they do things differently
they dont have power lines to power houses at a full proper house usage of 2kw a day.
they didnt have telephone cables/fibre for their internet.

they used small dinner plate size solar panels to power individual efficient devices like a 8watt LED lightbulb or a usb charger, USB charger 'powerbanks'

the thought that large diesel generators and massive kw solar panels were not a first thought that came to peoples mind when planning to get access to the internet and electric to do simple tasks of lighting.
..
as for thinking bitcoin needs exponential new users for deflationary price increases is another fools understanding of economics

in 2012 there were 12m coins in circulation. in 2022 there are 19m coins in circulation but that does not mean that it needs 0.5x more new buyers just to keep the price inline with 2012

what actually occurs is different
if all buyers only had an average spend of $400 both in 2012 and 2022. it does not require 50x more people to get to $20k
its actually much more simple.
the sellers just dont offer 1btc orders. instead they offer 0.02btc per order, where offering 0.02 for $400 average order results in 1btc=$20k

[Cryptodebjoe]

The economies of developing nations might be very insignificant when compared with developed nations but it can have a positive impact on the Bitcoin space. And this can be achieved if developing nations have access to electricity. Seeking cheap alternative and innovative means of power such as solar powered phones and computers can be a good starting point. Instead of buying an entire solar system which includes batteries, inverter, panel, etc, an affordable phone or laptop with inbuilt solar system would be ideal. These developing nations might no have the financial power, but they have the population.    

[/quote]
Research has shown that as at 2020 100% of the population in china had access to electricity and considering their population1.45trilion which is slightly higher than african population 1.40 trilion 73% of them has access to the internet while in africa 22% has access to the internet yet this doesnt neccesarily reflect the number of chinese using Bitcoin. The factors that determine or affects the population of bitcoin users(especially in africa and other underdeveloped regions) is far beyond power generation it includes also the following:1. Affordability of handset, data 2. Lack of digital skills and literacy 3. Lack of content in local languages 4. Governmental policy and other internal regulations 5. Inflation etc

[BlockchainMentors]

There are as many resources in the earth as electricity that can be generated, if you want to do mining, then you have to decide that you are not paying too much bill, due to which you are getting any harm from mining, now more people Will start but you will have to do mining very carefully otherwise your electricity bill will come more than your mining's cost.

[franky1]

There are as many resources in the earth as electricity that can be generated, if you want to do mining, then you have to decide that you are not paying too much bill, due to which you are getting any harm from mining, now more people Will start but you will have to do mining very carefully otherwise your electricity bill will come more than your mining's cost.

for those in africa that "want" to mine but know they require 3kw per hour constant electric. knowing the prices are high for that type of energy generation.. they would instead do the smart thing.
save money and just BUY bitcoin. because in those cases its cheaper just to buy bitcoin

[hd49728]

You can not use total holders or total UTXOs to make judgement that there are how many Bitcoin users. Estimation can be not correct. One holder can have many wallets, many addresses, many UTXOs.

If in future, you see more use cases and bigger trading volume for Bitcoin, the adoption is becoming better. I am sure when demand increases, price will grow consequently because the supply of Bitcoin is always 21M. It can not be increased by anyone. Many Bitcoin was lost too.

[dimonstration]

You can not use total holders or total UTXOs to make judgement that there are how many Bitcoin users. Estimation can be not correct. One holder can have many wallets, many addresses, many UTXOs.

If in future, you see more use cases and bigger trading volume for Bitcoin, the adoption is becoming better. I am sure when demand increases, price will grow consequently because the supply of Bitcoin is always 21M. It can not be increased by anyone. Many Bitcoin was lost too.

Agreed on this. I read some article before on how to have a wise estimate on how many real bitcoin holders are there. Since a user can have a multiple address containing dust amount, Some expert suggest that counting the number of people registered on exchange is probably the best thing to do due to KYC since the majority of crypto holder is using exchange and probably undergo KYC due to regulatory compliance.

I just saw some flaw on this method which user can create multiple account different exchange unless all exchange share there data to each other to have a single database to count unique users.

Article: https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/how-many-bitcoin-users/

[ranochigo]

There is a substantial difference between the ease of access to Bitcoin or Crypto and the willingless of adoption by the general population.

Fiat is a far better alternative as opposed to crypto mainly for a few reasons. Namely: Volatility, Ease of use and general reluctance to change the status quo. If El Salvador is of any indication, Bitcoin is not a sustainable currency where volatility is of any concern. It can be worse than the major currency in those countries because of its volatility. You can still argue that their currency may be subjected to hyperinflation but USD or major market currencies are far more stable. In countries with low literacy rates, you have very few of the people who are willing and able to use technology to their advantage. They are far more likely to be willing to maintain the status quo due to the lack of understanding of alternative currencies.

The problem is not with the ease of access but it is an entire myriad of problem that plagues the lack of adoption.

[Rruchi man]

The economies of developing nations might be very insignificant when compared with developed nations but it can have a positive impact on the Bitcoin space. And this can be achieved if developing nations have access to electricity.

Better electricity is what you should say OP, because we have electricity but it is not constant/stable except you are only considering the areas with no electricity access at all, the real rural areas. An increased and better electricity will mean that the youths can spend longer hours watching TV and on the internet without being bothered about the power on their devices and a longer time on the internet will mean that they have an increased exposure, a better chance of coming across bitcoins or cryptocurrencies. Africa has a lot to offer, and it's teaming youths desperate for ways to alleviate themselves from the economic hardship instilled as a result of bad leadership will always consider and embrace cryptocurrency if they are exposed to it as a way out.

[dbc23]

The economies of developing nations might be very insignificant when compared with developed nations but it can have a positive impact on the Bitcoin space. And this can be achieved if developing nations have access to electricity. Seeking cheap alternative and innovative means of power such as solar powered phones and computers can be a good starting point. Instead of buying an entire solar system which includes batteries, inverter, panel, etc, an affordable phone or laptop with inbuilt solar system would be ideal. These developing nations might no have the financial power, but they have the population.   

The cost of running alternate source of power supply are quite expensive in developing nations but this doesn't mean there are no power supply at all. This days solar panels are even less more economical and can power mobile phones and other gadgets that can access the web giving everyone equal opportunity to power supply no one has valid excuse for not joining the bitcoin ecosystem because the goal is not to hold 1BTC the goal is to haveBTC no matter how small.

[darkangel11]

If electricity was the only problem in bitcoin adoption, we'd still have much more users than we have. Right now the number of bitcoin users is smaller than the population of China. Tell me again that it's the lack of electricity that's stopping over 700k of Europeans with easy and cheap Internet access from buying bitcoin.

As far as the price goes, when we start moving towards 100k it's going to be an explosion again. The money to push bitcoin up is there and it would need only a few days to do so if the time was right. People from poor regions aren't going to do it. It's the hedge funds and businesses that save up their 1% in bitcoin that are going to make us go to 100 or 200k.

[marcotheminer]

Is anyone running a solar campaign?

[Zlantann]

A few years ago I watched a documentary about how people in Africa manage to charge their phones at stations that offer such a service, and some are even mobile and use solar panels.

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It’s very true sir, I have also seen some of them that runs phone charging services with generator powered electricity. But the challenge most time is phone or phone accessory theft and most of them don’t offer 24hrs services, hence one cannot access them at all time.  

Do you really believe that the growth will come from people who earn less than 5$ a day? Do you think their first choice once they get electricity would be to invest...what? The 30 cents they are left with at the end of the month after barely managing to buy food for their families?
Seriously, those poor people have little access to electricity, clean water, a damn hospital, or a school and the major concern is that they can't buy bitcoins...

But sir if they can save the 30 cents, maybe they can be able to buy a fraction of Bitcoin after sometime. There are many people in these developing nation that are poor but they still want to use their small saving to invest. I have learnt that Bitcoin can also be earned.

Prior to all that, we can't expect people who live in poverty and without access to all these basic requirements for using Bitcoin to become interested. But even when all of that is widely available, it doesn't mean people will turn to Bitcoin, as there's a huge difference between the number of active Internet users and Bitcoin users.

Sir, at least access to these basic requirements gives them the opportunities to know about Bitcoin. All of them might not necessarily accept or be interested in Bitcoin, but there are possibilities that the opportunities that Bitcoin offers might motivate some of them to become Bitcoiners. Yes the number of active internet users is not equal to number of Bitcoin users, but it can facilitate an increase in the number of Bitcoin users.
  

Better electricity is what you should say OP, because we have electricity but it is not constant/stable except you are only considering the areas with no electricity access at all, the real rural areas. Africa has a lot to offer, and it's teaming youths desperate for ways to alleviate themselves from the economic hardship instilled as a result of bad leadership will always consider and embrace cryptocurrency if they are exposed to it as a way out.

Corrections appreciated sir; it should be improved or better access to electricity. Like you rightly stated there are still areas in rural areas that lack access to electricity and even in some urban areas have not enjoyed power supply for years due to infrastructural problems. Youths in developing nations are very creative, innovative and very diligent. Hence, they would gladly grab any opportunity that can grant them access to financial freedom.

The cost of running alternate source of power supply are quite expensive in developing nations but this doesn't mean there are no power supply at all.

Thank you sir, developing nations have access to electricity but the point is that a large number of the population either have no access or epileptic supply. Hence, my take is that improvement in power supply can affect Bitcoin adoption positively.  

If electricity was the only problem in bitcoin adoption, we'd still have much more users than we have. Right now the number of bitcoin users is smaller than the population of China. Tell me again that it's the lack of electricity that's stopping over 700k of Europeans with easy and cheap Internet access from buying bitcoin.

Valid response sirs, but I have no intention to state that electricity or internet challenges are the only reason why Bitcoin adoption or users might not increase as expected. Yes challenges of Bitcoin usage are multidimensional, but I just had the privilege of identifying electricity.

The factors that determine or affects the population of bitcoin users(especially in africa and other underdeveloped regions) is far beyond power generation it includes also the following:1. Affordability of handset, data 2. Lack of digital skills and literacy 3. Lack of content in local languages 4. Governmental policy and other internal regulations 5. Inflation etc

All the challenges you listed are correct sir. But my focus is access to electricity. And you would agree that inaccessibility to power is a major challenge.

[franky1]

you dont need a massive solar panel to charge a phone

you can trickle charge a power bank over a few days. to then charge a phone in a few hours where that phone can then run for more days than the trickle charge takes to charge the powerbank.

so a small handheld solar panel is all they use.(remote villages that dont have shops/services)
.

as for markets.
if they average buy order in fiat decreases from $400 to $4 . sellers simply offer smaller decimals of btc.
which if you then calculate the equivalent price as if it was a whole btc, then it tells you the whole btc price

EG
someone buying 0.02 for $400 =$20k/btc
someone buying 0.0002 for $4 =$20k/btc
so no difference effect in price by just selling less sats offering less fiat

we can see this because in 2012-3 mtgox was selling 1btc for $400 as an average order amount where the occasional order an hour of 1000btc for $400k

these days you wil not see 1000 whale orders in any given hour on one order line
and average orders are not 1btc amounts..

now its 0.02 amounts and 1btc amounts are the occasion orders happening each hour

..
what is actually the hold up of bitcoin acceptance in third world countries is the transaction fee.

and NO this is not an opportunity for certain people to derail the topic to advertise an altnet brand stealing bitcoin pretending their other network offers bitcoins without the fee.

[Darker45]

Where there is no electricity, there's also probably no internet service providers and communication signals, so if we're talking of this isolated sector, let's probably forget about Bitcoin.

I don't think the people living in such condition prioritize Bitcoin more than the rest of their needs. And I assume that such a place is definitely poor. I know that there are off-grid villages and communities that are well-off but we're talking here of developing countries like mine. So it's no use for them to pursue Bitcoin as if it's the be-all and end-all of their existence.

Let's be practical. First things first.

[franky1]

Where there is no electricity, there's also probably no internet service providers and communication signals, so if we're talking of this isolated sector, let's probably forget about Bitcoin.

you will find that africa skipped passed/ignored copper wire/fibre internet telephony. and pushed straight to cellular towers. as its cheaper to reach great distances while offering good speed internet

alot of the 'unbanked' use cellular alot because they use phone credit as their currency, (mpesa & MoMo) so they are actually very comfortable with technology and digital currency. so switching over to cryptocurrency is not a huge leap. its actually much harder to try to convert them back to paper bank notes due to many many issues they have in their area in regards to bank notes (recessions hyper inflations, ATM/bank availability) they would much prefer cellular based currency use