Crude Oil drops below $100

[Kakmakr]

The thing is.... large oil producers know that inflated prices will lead to demand slowdowns by the consumers and this will hurt their profits in the long-run. The consumer will be unable to pay the huge price increases and the direct result will be a cut back on travels or a shift to electric cars.

So, they just increase production to prevent slowdowns and to stimulate the demand side of the market and people still continue as usual. These rich b@stards just know how to manipulate the markets and the governments work with them, because they get a lot of tax levies in return. 

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[Ultegra134]

It is believed that oil could fall below $90 if inflation persists, something which is highly unlikely to change since it simply keeps rising, driving leading to large price increases in basic necessary goods.

~snip~
One hour later, and WTI dropped below $90, for the first time since February 10th.

Same here, dropped around €0.20/liter, but it's still too expensive to notice. Gas was always expensive in Greece, due to high taxation and excise tax, which is up to €0.70/liter. Covid-19's quarantine drove prices down n 2020, the lowest I've ever seen them, at €1.33/liter, it felt so cheap fueling up back then.

Personally, I've cut my fuel usage up to 2/3 of what it was in the past 2 years, I've resorted to using my motorcycle, which uses half of what my car is, while due to long hours working and the less available income, I'm no longer capable of using my car for leisure purposes. Oil continues to tumble, the only positive thing happening with all these excessive prices.

P.S Great website, provides great inside on fuel prices

By the way, reducing the consumption of gasoline / diesel fuel is a good step both to reduce the burden on the family budget and to help the global crisis. I recently sold my 4 liter Toyota Prado, I am going to buy a hybrid car for long trips, and an electric car for city trips, exclusively for the home-office-shop-home cycle, which is 90% of the total trips. In Ukraine, gasoline / diesel fuel has also skyrocketed in price, it's time to reduce dependence on such a resource

What else can you do, there's no other choice. I used to spend up to €150-€200 for petrol for my car, on a monthly basis, but I was always on the move, traveling back and forth. Currently, I'm spending at least €80-€100 for petrol, only for my motorcycle, just to commute to work. If I used my car as much as I used it the previous years, I'd have to spend over €300/month.

[boyptc]

but it is still significantly expensive compared to where it was just over a year ago.

That's right.

I'm happy to see it rolled back but still we need to get back from where it was before or even close at it even with a gain. With my calculations, we're still near half from where it is right now and from where it was a year ago.

How far would you expect it to fall though? I doubt we'll ever be back down to pandemic levels, somewhere around £1.20/€1.4/$1.4-£1.4/$1.7/€1.7 per litre would be around where I'd expect it to stabilise if there is enough supply and a dip in demand (due to the prices being high and also maybe less travelling after the summer - for the northern hemisphere at least).

Well, that's the sad truth that I have to accept that we won't be back there anytime sooner. I have already accepted that fact but thinking that it will be back there just as before, I've got nothing to lose.

Oh well, another possible turmoil that's going to make the price rise again.

The issue with Taiwan and China, although, others might not be affected by it but the close nations could be affected by it and can be said that it will be another reason for some price increase as the tension rises and demand for oil will be there again to increase.

[kryptqnick]

I thought there were spikes in prices, actually, so I'm happy to hear that they're going down. It would be good both for consumers and for ending the war, as Russia will get less money from selling oil and gas, ergo less money to shell cities of a sovereign state. I also hope that the world will finally start moving away from gas and oil as such, though, since global warming is still an alarming issue and we must do what we can to make its impact less negative. Unfortunately, the current circumstances aren't very welcoming for eco-friendly initiatives because those need long-term strategies, though, and the war is making people look for short-term things.

[Hispo]

we have also subsidized gasoline, there are about 120 Liters per month we can adquire at a very cheap price, almost symbolic

Are you rationed to the 120 litres or is that just what you can get for the discounted rate there?

Nowadays, we can buy how much fuel we want at 0,5$ /Liter, but if we want to buy gas at ridiculously low prices there is a limit of 120 Liters per month for each vehicle owner.
In some cities is easier to buy subsidized gas than others, it is a line of about 7 vehicles and you are ready to go, on the other hand, there are other ones which have a higher demand because mining opperations, so in order to access the almost free gas one needs to join a telegram Channel to receive a notification according to one's vehicle plate. As soon as the notification is sent,people get in the line to mark the vehicles which will refuel early next morning.

[Hamza2424]

That is a bit good for the Asian countries, as inflation is sucking the life of the poor community here so now here you need to know that this can directly impact the local civilians here as maximum transports can enjoy less cost to generation power. that can be a little relief in the economic crisis especially for Pakistan as i know that 100% increase in price of the fuel how it looks like and how it destroy the local jobs and transportation so now i am expecting the decrease of the fuel prices over here and with that being said the efficient decrease in the prices of the Electricity is possible. Good time expected by me as compared to the time we are spending here. 

[fullhdpixel]

Have you seen any significant drop in gas prices in your area? Will oil drop even further, despite the ongoing war?

This is great. Now people can ride on their vehicles again because many of them have been using bicycles for a while to go their work or go on some places but there are some that commutes for a while but the fair rates are also increasing. A few cents drop is still better I guess especially if you are buying more liters of oil. You can save a lot of money already as when compared to its previous price.

If inflation persists then I don't think the drop of the price can continue. You said that increase in oil price can also drive the price of the food higher, so this means that this decrease of oil price can also lead for the price of the goods to get lowered? That would be great if that's how it works.

[darkangel11]

I feel like refineries pumped the price much more than they should have, expecting shortages. Crude went up but refined products went up more in relation and did not go down when crude fell.
You could see it in June when crude went from 120 to 104 but gas didn't budge. It was at its peak for over a month. I think it started going down maybe 2 weeks ago so it needed a whole month to react to the crude drop. It's because of taxes and the premium that refineries overcharge. They made a lot of money on these shortages and we paid for it. We still do.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

Crude oil has dropped below $100, the first time in months after touching the highest level since 2009, at $130/barrel. Oil prices have dropped the past two months, with both Brent and WTI Crude trending below the $100 level ($91 for WTI and $97 for Brent oil). According to Oilprices.com, consumers have already seen a slight relief in gas prices, dropping from the historic average of $5/gallon down to $4.16.

Haven't checked in other European countries, but in Greece it has only dropped a few cents till now, I'm expecting it to drop within the next week though (from €2.45 to €2.20 in my area at least). It is believed that oil could fall below $90 if inflation persists, something which is highly unlikely to change since it simply keeps rising, driving leading to large price increases in basic necessary goods.

Have you seen any significant drop in gas prices in your area? Will oil drop even further, despite the ongoing war?

Here in NJ ,USA

5.07 to 4.27 a gallon

and in some spots 3.95 a gallon


https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/new-jersey

[Hydrogen]

There were plans to release oil from america's strategic petroleum reserves in an effort to reduces gas prices. It is possible that these initiatives are finally manifesting themselves in market prices.

Biden proposed suspending the federal gas tax which is an excellent measure I support. Unfortunately, it seems the proposal was buried and might never see the light of day again.

2022 is an election year for the USA. All types of craziness occur in the year and a half leading up to elections.

I think Osama Bin Laden was assassinated prior to previous elections. General Soleimani may have been as well.

Pre election stunts and gimmicks can reach levels of epic proportions. Politicians definitely want the public feeling better gas prices before heading to voting booths, I would guess.

[paxmao]

Interesting thing to see, oil does not have any particular reason other than being summer, so it may be just an seasonal effect that does not matter for the long term forecast. However, it is clear that there are years of underinvestment in oil production ant the ESG tendency is not helping to raise production. We are maybe trying to be green all the sudden.

[Sithara007]

There were plans to release oil from america's strategic petroleum reserves in an effort to reduces gas prices. It is possible that these initiatives are finally manifesting themselves in market prices.

Biden proposed suspending the federal gas tax which is an excellent measure I support. Unfortunately, it seems the proposal was buried and might never see the light of day again.

2022 is an election year for the USA. All types of craziness occur in the year and a half leading up to elections.

I think Osama Bin Laden was assassinated prior to previous elections. General Soleimani may have been as well.

Pre election stunts and gimmicks can reach levels of epic proportions. Politicians definitely want the public feeling better gas prices before heading to voting booths, I would guess.

OPEC has increased the production by around 0.1%. Americans have been releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) like there is no tomorrow. The Biden administration ordered this, because he knows that his party is fucked for the November elections. The issue here is that, once the election is over this gimmick will stop and the crude prices will be back to $120-$130 level. And in the end the American public will suffer. Because they are getting rid of the reserves in SPR when the prices are <$100 per barrel. And most probably it will be refilled when the prices are at least 30% higher.

[adaseb]

Crude is dropping for a few reasons.

First reason is that production has increased slightly. So there is more supply in the markets.

Second reason is that demand has decreased slightly as well. People are basically driving less. They only take trips they need and don’t waste gas driving around in a circle.

[so98nn]

Every government is unique in the way they control the prices for their nations gas. Unfortunately, some governments are managing it poorly such as India. Though westerners suffered with Russia Ukraine war and gas cut offs and Russia increased the export to India at lowered prices, India seen no change in the gas prices. The fuel is enormously higher than other nations around. With the current price drop, there is no change at all.

Problem is with central tax and state tax system. You will literally find different taxes and thus prices from one state to another state within same country.

Its managed in most horrible way you can have.

[Findingnemo]

I didn't see any considerable amount of drop in the price of fuel in my country and I don't think it will happen as well in most of the countries, apart from the inflation these government may take advantage of the drop in crude oil price by increasing the taxes to the same level so they can generate more tax revenue which maybe helpful to solve existing economy related issues.

[Leviathan.007]

I was expecting to see this happening but not that soon, just after the war started between Russia and Ukraine and especially after what Putin said about selling oil to other countries the prices started to rise sharply and we all know any sharp price movement like this one needs to have a rest, in the other hand the Europian countries are trying to find an alternative for Russia and this will surely decrease the price, especially in Europian countries.

[Sithara007]

I have a bad feeling about all this. By the first week of November, the selloff from SPR is going to stop and crude will be back to >$120 levels (or much higher than that). The only factor this is pulling down the price is the massive selloff by the American administration from their SPR. They don't have any reason to continue with it, once voting closes on 8th November. And even worse, the Americans may try to refill the SPR which should be almost empty by then. I won't be surprised if the crude oil prices cross $150 per barrel level.

[dataispower]

From my understanding I am sure that the adoption of cryptocurrency as dominant the life system of crude oil so I believe that if crude oil is trying to get another value or another increment in the price that means the people is not returning into crude oil investment because since the introduction of cryptocurrency nobody is interested to invest its money in the crude oil session so for crude oil to reach $100, that means it is having a good potential in which people cannot invest into it, but the way I am seeing Bitcoin I don't think that the influence of Bitcoin will allow crude oil to grow again

[Hispo]

I have a bad feeling about all this. By the first week of November, the selloff from SPR is going to stop and crude will be back to >$120 levels (or much higher than that). The only factor this is pulling down the price is the massive selloff by the American administration from their SPR. They don't have any reason to continue with it, once voting closes on 8th November. And even worse, the Americans may try to refill the SPR which should be almost empty by then. I won't be surprised if the crude oil prices cross $150 per barrel level.

I felt I needed to take a look at it after reading your post. I was aware Biden's Administration was releaing a significant percentage of those reserves, but then I realized it was way more than I thought it was.

Source: https://www.eia.gov

According to that graph, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves of USA are at the levels of 1986!
So the scenario you explained may be indeed possible depending on how fast the government wants to replenish their SPR and whether they plan to do it with foreign or national production.

This seems to be quite a political move looking foward to November rather than part of a long term plan to relieve common citizens from high energy prices...

[be.open]

OPEC has increased the production by around 0.1%. Americans have been releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) like there is no tomorrow. The Biden administration ordered this, because he knows that his party is fucked for the November elections. The issue here is that, once the election is over this gimmick will stop and the crude prices will be back to $120-$130 level. And in the end the American public will suffer. Because they are getting rid of the reserves in SPR when the prices are <$100 per barrel. And most probably it will be refilled when the prices are at least 30% higher.

I don't know what can save the Democratic rating, for example, apart from unleashing an armed conflict with China to protect the freedom of democracy in Taiwan. The war will write everything off.