China-US-Taiwan and the Economy

[pooya87]

I want to present an analysis/prediction of the world focusing on China-US duo (with Taiwan as the victim/battle-ground) and the effects of that on the global economy and possibly make a conclusion about possible effects on bitcoin.

We know how the economy crisis has been going on, specially in the West (US+EU). The energy crisis is still harming the economy and as fossil fuels become more scarce in EU and their prices go up in both US and EU their economies are going to get even worse over time. People who had trouble paying their bills are now also incapable of paying their debts. Changing interest rates won't help either. Recession is on the horizon.

We know that over the past decades it has been a US strategy to order the Saudis to increase the oil prices to increase inflation and they obeyed. Then they ordered the Saudis again to decrease the prices to stop inflation and they obeyed again.
This way they have been keeping the big but very fragile debt based US economy afloat and prevented a recession or worse.

Some months ago oil prices went over $100 but this time the Saudis aren't obeying US orders anymore. This is clear from the US failure to grovel to the Saudi extremists for more oil.
One of the biggest oil exporters (Russia) is also not exporting to the West as much as before due to recent sanctions.
The Eastern bloc (that has the biggest oil supplies among them + Venezuela) is also working together very well (eg. India doesn't obey the sanction-Russia order, Iran doesn't accept the pleas by EU to remove its sanctions against EU, even South America is no longer considered US backyard,...).
The 79 year old Biden with his senility is not just a bad president, he is the manifestation of an empire that has entered its last stage of life.


Some analysts believe that now that US has exhausted all options to bring down oil prices the last option is to start a war with China.

They say it's a simple supply and demand matter. These days the supply is shorter hence the price is high. US couldn't beg Saudis to increase the supply and nobody else helped either, so the only remaining option is to decrease the demand. A large part of demand comes from China so if China is at war the demand could decrease hence crashing the oil price far below $100.
This theory requires China to not be able to finish the invasion in 6 months or less. Otherwise things could get worse.
The result is theorized to be a small lifeline for the Western economy to recover itself a little as energy prices would come down.

I personally think this is indeed the US strategy but the results won't be what they want. Basically it is the repetition of the same wrong strategies they had with Ukraine (a proxy war to weaken Russia while keeping their world intact which we know it didn't work).
But the thing that US strategists are forgetting (like they forgot with Ukraine) is that most of the Western economy is already tied with Chinese economy. Not to mention that unlike Russia that EU imported a lot of energy from while US didn't that much, the US economy is tied with Chinese economy to a great degree. In this situation if Chinese economy crashes their economy would crash too.
In other words even if their initial plan worked and energy prices came down it still won't help the West if their economy is crashing hard for a different reason.

They are also overlooking another important fact that I pointed out earlier: the Eastern Bloc is working together very well unlike in the past. For example one of the hopes of US is to force India and Japan to fight China because of Taiwan (another complex proxy war). I am almost certain that India is not going to fall for it and would stay out of it; but am not so certain about Japan specially ever since the very suspicious assassination of Shinzo Abe.

China is also very ready for this conflict, they've been on a buying spree accumulating a lot of strategic goods such as energy and food. Some stats claim China is now storing more than 60% of the food in the entire world!
Their military drills and their presence all around Taiwan and their military presence in Solomon Islands, a very strategic place specially considering it keeps Australia at bay, is another indication of Chinese readiness and [unfortunately] willingness for war!


If this war breaks out, there is a good chance that the global economy would get worse specially in the West (as I explained above). The increasing inflation would cause many markets to crash.

When it comes to bitcoin, logically speaking since bitcoin is THE hedge against inflation it should start performing well but the recent panic sells that brought us to the current price suggests the irrational market behavior is still a possibility. On the other hand we know that weak hands have sold their coins so there shouldn't be many of them left for more panic sells.
I think at the very best we could have very volatile market ahead of is (in case war breaks out over Taiwan).


P.S. Until the new world order is accepted by the world, we should expect the same chaotic world.

[electronicash]

Japan will not be willing to engage in war, they will just be minding their own business because war is expensive. the ones who got the appetite for it are the rich countries who can dictate where economy is going after a global recession.

if war breaks out while China has positioned in Solomon island and in the South China Sea, my beloved Philippines will be caught in a crossfire which is what we're really worried about this conflict. Pelosi should have avoided visiting Taiwan, majority of the people in Taiwan doesn't want US to interfere internal affairs. just let China have Taiwan, they can still trade with Taiwan as they could with China even today.

[Upgrade00]

Lots of useful insights on this thread, I was not very aware of the China-US-Taiwan beyond the fact that Nancy Pelosi embarked on a trip to Taiwan against better judgement and that had the potential to kick start a conflict or to accentuate the existing rivalries.

However one looks at it, it's not a good situation and the consequences of the next couple of weeks and months could have an effect at a global scale affecting prices of oil and basically any other commodities.

When it comes to bitcoin, logically speaking since bitcoin is THE hedge against inflation it should start performing well but the recent panic sells that brought us to the current price suggests the irrational market behavior is still a possibility. On the other hand we know that weak hands have sold their coins so there shouldn't be many of them left for more panic sells.
I think at the very best we could have very volatile market ahead of is (in case war breaks out over Taiwan).

Bitcoin might not exactly start doing well (rising in price), but I am not expecting a downward trend anytime soon. A bit of sideways movement over the next couple of weeks/months and maybe an upward break down the road.

[be.open]

Japan will not be willing to engage in war, they will just be minding their own business because war is expensive. the ones who got the appetite for it are the rich countries who can dictate where economy is going after a global recession.

Japan is the number one candidate for this war. Japan has a long-standing score with China, Japan openly supports Taiwan, Japan is heavily dependent on the US, Japan has disputed islands with China, and Japan does not have nuclear weapons - so instead of an open US-China conflict, a indirect Japan-China conflict is more likely.

ps Japan's Defense Ministry said five out of nine missiles fired by China today landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone.

[Fortify]

I want to present an analysis/prediction of the world focusing on China-US duo (with Taiwan as the victim/battle-ground) and the effects of that on the global economy and possibly make a conclusion about possible effects on bitcoin.

Your analysis is pretty stupid to be kind. Authoritarian and centralised governments have been shown throughout history to fail constantly, some may last longer than others but it seems like China is going backwards right now. The reason that China became so successful in the last couple decades was the fact they were becoming more westernised and embracing capitalism - Xi Jinping is about to recreate the disastrous reign of Mao out of his own vain desires. This is not to say that the Chinese way of government does not have some advantages, but on the whole it cannot compete with the innovation and free thinking of more open societies. Frankly considering the size of the population, very little research, science and technology innovation has actually come out of the country - but they've gotten good at copying things.

[WatChe]

Well China is way more stronger than Russia both in terms of military and financial strength while Tiawan don't have depth in there country like Ukarine. I don't think this conflict may last for week or two as tiawan even with help of usa can't withstand China military might.
World should now understand the evil nature of usa and must not start war on orders of usa. See ukarine and EU suffering but usa got maximum benefit out of that conflict. Now usa will do the same here i.e. start and wad between China and tiawan, and get maximum benefit.

[be.open]

Well China is way more stronger than Russia both in terms of military and financial strength while Tiawan don't have depth in there country like Ukarine. I don't think this conflict may last for week or two as tiawan even with help of usa can't withstand China military might.

In my opinion, both the overestimation of China's military power and the underestimation of Taiwan's defensive capabilities are misleading (especially since defending is always easier than attacking). The soldiers and officers of the People's Liberation Army of China have a lot of training experience, but no real combat experience at all (and training experience is not always successfully extrapolated to real combat operations), and China has not yet completed its rearmament cycle, calculated until 2024, although it has managed to do a lot in this direction. If in the event of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, time is more likely to work for Russia, then China needs a lightning-fast blitzkrieg in Taiwan. If China gets stuck in Taiwan even for half a year, its economy may not survive.

[Gyfts]

I want to present an analysis/prediction of the world focusing on China-US duo (with Taiwan as the victim/battle-ground) and the effects of that on the global economy and possibly make a conclusion about possible effects on bitcoin.

Your analysis is pretty stupid to be kind. Authoritarian and centralised governments have been shown throughout history to fail constantly, some may last longer than others but it seems like China is going backwards right now. The reason that China became so successful in the last couple decades was the fact they were becoming more westernised and embracing capitalism - Xi Jinping is about to recreate the disastrous reign of Mao out of his own vain desires. This is not to say that the Chinese way of government does not have some advantages, but on the whole it cannot compete with the innovation and free thinking of more open societies. Frankly considering the size of the population, very little research, science and technology innovation has actually come out of the country - but they've gotten good at copying things.

China has hardly embraced capitalism. They've been successful in modernizing their economy because they rely on hundreds of millions of their citizens to be subject to absolute poverty while they expanded their manufacturing/export industry. If it only took slave labor to successfully launch an economy, then sure, China could be considered a successful story of communism. Fortunately, developed society has higher standards than that.

[yhiaali3]

A reasonable analysis, yes, the United States is trying to find a way out of the predicament in which it fell, but unfortunately it will probably fall into a greater predicament, because the China-Taiwan war will have significant negative repercussions on the global economy and at the forefront is the American economy. If this war occurred, it would not end easily but rather Probably take much more dimensions than plotted.

[BADecker]

Somewhat of a deep explanation of which nation is stronger, and what is going on in the world.


ANALYSIS: Why China LOSES any escalation involving Taiwan and the United States Navy

In reaction to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the independent island nation of Taiwan, communist China is having a bitchfit and launching missiles with flight paths over Taiwan while all but surrounding the island nation with live fire naval and air exercises. According to China, this is all part of the CCP’s “reunification” plan to take Taiwan under control of the CCP, using military force to achieve its goals.

Taiwan is a key strategic supplier of 2nm microchips to western nations, providing critical components to Apple, weapons manufacturers, navigation, transportation and telecommunications industries. Without Taiwan’s steady supply of microchips (and other goods manufactured in Taiwan), western economies would face devastating economic consequences. For this reason, Taiwan holds strategic value for the western world that is far higher in the “critical infrastructure” hierarchy than Ukraine.

Should China choose to blockade or attack Taiwan, the likely counterattack by western allies would involve not just Taiwan, but also Japan, South Korea, Australia, the United States, the UK, Germany and other western nations.

Russia dominates ground warfare, but the USA dominates maritime force

As I detail in today’s Situation Update podcast (below), Russia is formidable when it comes to ground warfare. Russian artillery, Iskander missiles, tactical nuclear missiles and other ground-based systems are the best and most effective in the world. But when it comes to maritime conflict, the United States Navy is irrefutably unrivaled.

The US Navy operates 11 aircraft carriers and 9 helo carriers, whereas Russia has but one carrier and China has only 2 aircraft carriers and 1 helo carrier. China’s Liaoning carrier was purchased from Ukraine in 1998 and is an old Soviet design, which was re-engineered with Chinese technology (largely stolen from the USA) and finally made combat ready after 14 years of retrofitting. The Liaoning is not considered by naval experts to be any real challenge to a Nimitz-class U.S. carrier.

China’s second carrier is the Shandong, a more modern carrier launched sometime around 2020. Even though it is a step up from the Liaoning, it is no match for US Nimitz-class or Ford-class carriers.

Currently in the area of Taiwan are three US carriers (and accompanying strike force groups): The USS America (a helo carrier), USS Tripoli (another helo carrier) and USS Ronald Reagan (a Nimitz-class aircraft carrier). The USS Abraham Lincoln is currently in the Hawaiian island area and is within reasonable reaction distance to Taiwan, if things go hot.

US Nimitz-class and new Ford-class carriers are by far the largest, most heavily armed and most capable warships in the world. Each one holds around 6,000 crew (including officers) and is powered by redundant nuclear power plants that allow the ships to run for 20 years without refueling. (This is an astonishing but true fact. They don’t use diesel fuel, they run entirely on nuclear energy.)

...

[pooya87]

Not sure why this topic was moved out of Economy board but fine...

my beloved Philippines will be caught in a crossfire which is what we're really worried about this conflict.

This is what I'm worried about too, that the conflict gets into other parts of the world, namely West Asia (aka Middle East) considering the Chinese relations there and rumors about certain "plans"...
For example Iran is the first country that has spat on Monroe doctrine (in effect from 1817) and has built military bases in US backyard. In a couple of weeks a military excessive will be held in American waters between Iran, China and Russia....

Japan will not be willing to engage in war, they will just be minding their own business because war is expensive. the ones who got the appetite for it are the rich countries who can dictate where economy is going after a global recession.

Japan is the number one candidate for this war. Japan has a long-standing score with China, Japan openly supports Taiwan, Japan is heavily dependent on the US, Japan has disputed islands with China, and Japan does not have nuclear weapons - so instead of an open US-China conflict, a indirect Japan-China conflict is more likely.

ps Japan's Defense Ministry said five out of nine missiles fired by China today landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone.

Exactly. The other concern is the ultra-nationalist that gained a lot of support after the assassination. Basically removal of Abe could corrupt his movement and they could try to become a major geopolitical player by engaging China, proving they can have an "independent" military!

Your analysis is pretty stupid to be kind.

I'm interested to know which part of it you found stupid since the rest of your post had nothing to do with my analysis since I'm not really analyzing Chinese strength, governance, economy, etc. to claim whether it is good or bad.

But when it comes to maritime conflict, the United States Navy is irrefutably unrivaled.

This is probably why the highest suicide rates is among US marines and also why USN was the first to flee thousands of kilometers to the middle of Indian Ocean back in 2019 as soon as POTUS gave the order for an act of terror and before the retaliation came.

[be.open]

Japan will not be willing to engage in war, they will just be minding their own business because war is expensive. the ones who got the appetite for it are the rich countries who can dictate where economy is going after a global recession.

Japan is the number one candidate for this war. Japan has a long-standing score with China, Japan openly supports Taiwan, Japan is heavily dependent on the US, Japan has disputed islands with China, and Japan does not have nuclear weapons - so instead of an open US-China conflict, a indirect Japan-China conflict is more likely.

ps Japan's Defense Ministry said five out of nine missiles fired by China today landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone.

Exactly. The other concern is the ultra-nationalist that gained a lot of support after the assassination. Basically removal of Abe could corrupt his movement and they could try to become a major geopolitical player by engaging China, proving they can have an "independent" military!

Yep. Cherry on the cake - behind the modest name of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force is one of the most powerful fleets in the world.

[PrimeNumber7]

Japan will not be willing to engage in war, they will just be minding their own business because war is expensive. the ones who got the appetite for it are the rich countries who can dictate where economy is going after a global recession.

I think the opposite is more likely. China is Japan’s adversary and has been increasing their military spending in recent years as a means to counter Chinese projections of strength.

Biden is doing exactly what he said he would do to energy prices — he intentionally making them very high so that people will have greater incentives to buy electric cars that are powered by electricity from coal. It should be no surprise that the Saudis are not receptive to Biden’s request for more oil if you read his comments about the Saudi royal family.

I don’t think the US will provoke a war with China via Taiwan. It is more likely that China will invade Taiwan after Russia wins its war in Ukraine (assuming they do). I think China wants to see if Russia sees are real consequences for the invasion. This will likely result in a real war directly with China, although based on the fact that the Chinese government likely has a lot of dirt on the Biden family, it is possible that the US will initially sit out of the war.

[Slow death]

One thing is for sure, these Chinese from the dictatorship will not make war, they know they would lose if they made war, the rich Chinese do not want war, and the fact that if there was a war in Japan, the USA and its allies would easily win the war and China it would be poor in the long run so china can be threatening, but it will end up there, just see that their russia supporter is having difficulties in ukraine, so this is something that makes china think before wanting to make war that it knows it will lose. Dictatorship governments need to fall as soon as possible the world wants democracy and the government of china is a cancer for the world and its people