Stages of Bitcoin acceptance

[cbeast]

Stage 0: Trading Bitcoin as a commodity. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 1: Social Networking will adapt Bitcoin for micropayments. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 2: Commerce will embrace Bitcoin as an overlay mechanism, like Paypal. Speculation will drive value one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 3: Bitcoin will replace local banking for businesses enjoying low fees. Local legislatures will officially recognize Bitcoin. Speculation peaks.
Stage 4: Nations will begin to decouple currencies and adapt Bitcoin.
Stage 5: Nations and corporations will merge as they lose their competitive advantage over decentralized enterprises.
Stage 6: National borders will dissolve as decentralized enterprises evolve into AI driven civilization planning.
Stage 7: Bitcoin will evolve into a scientific-method based algorithm using Asimovian principles.
Stage 8: Ebil robot zombies will eat our brains and conquer the Universe.

[boonies4u]

Stage 0: Trading Bitcoin as a commodity. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 1: Social Networking will adapt Bitcoin for micropayments. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 2: Commerce will embrace Bitcoin as an overlay mechanism, like Paypal. Speculation will drive value one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 3: Bitcoin will replace local banking for businesses enjoying low fees. Local legislatures will officially recognize Bitcoin. Speculation peaks.
Stage 4: Nations will begin to decouple currencies and adapt Bitcoin.
Stage 5: Nations and corporations will merge as they lose their competitive advantage over decentralized enterprises.
Stage 6: National borders will dissolve as decentralized enterprises evolve into AI driven civilization planning.
Stage 7: Bitcoin will evolve into a scientific-method based algorithm using Asimovian principles.
Stage 8: Ebil robot zombies will eat our brains and conquer the Universe.

I suppose as certain businesses go under and other merge, a drop in value could be expected. Also, the usual speculation ups and downs.

0-3 Plausible
4-5 Only if
6-8 lolk

[cbeast]

I suppose as certain businesses go under and other merge, a drop in value could be expected. Also, the usual speculation ups and downs.

0-3 Plausible
4-5 Only if
6-8 lolk

Major speculation will end as nations decouple currencies just as there is little speculation on USD. Speculation is driven by psychological factors (basically fear and greed) and will peak, but may drop somewhat if nations handle adoption badly and with force.
The last few stages are a long way off. Bitcoin is very cool money, but it's still just money and you can't eat it. How much would you sell the last scrap of food on earth for? The Earth is limited. Capitalism is not. Capitalism is destroying life on Earth and at some point we'll need smart money with AI that allows for a sustainable economy.

Forget the last part, that's a leak to my next novel.

[JohnOliver]

Stage 0: Trading Bitcoin as a commodity. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 1: Social Networking will adapt Bitcoin for micropayments. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 2: Commerce will embrace Bitcoin as an overlay mechanism, like Paypal. Speculation will drive value one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 3: Bitcoin will replace local banking for businesses enjoying low fees. Local legislatures will officially recognize Bitcoin. Speculation peaks.
Stage 4: Nations will begin to decouple currencies and adapt Bitcoin.
Stage 5: Nations and corporations will merge as they lose their competitive advantage over decentralized enterprises.
Stage 6: National borders will dissolve as decentralized enterprises evolve into AI driven civilization planning.
Stage 7: Bitcoin will evolve into a scientific-method based algorithm using Asimovian principles.
Stage 8: Ebil robot zombies will eat our brains and conquer the Universe.

Stage 9: Satoshi reveals himself to be an omnipotent beings who used his ultimate weapon, Bitcoin, to finally subjugate all 73 parallel universes under his control.

[paraipan]

Stage 0: Trading Bitcoin as a commodity. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 1: Social Networking will adapt Bitcoin for micropayments. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 2: Commerce will embrace Bitcoin as an overlay mechanism, like Paypal. Speculation will drive value one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 3: Bitcoin will replace local banking for businesses enjoying low fees. Local legislatures will officially recognize Bitcoin. Speculation peaks.
Stage 4: Nations will begin to decouple currencies and adapt Bitcoin.
Stage 5: Nations and corporations will merge as they lose their competitive advantage over decentralized enterprises.
Stage 6: National borders will dissolve as decentralized enterprises evolve into AI driven civilization planning.
Stage 7: Bitcoin will evolve into a scientific-method based algorithm using Asimovian principles.
Stage 8: Ebil robot zombies will eat our brains and conquer the Universe.

Stage 9: Satoshi reveals himself to be an omnipotent beings who used his ultimate weapon, Bitcoin, to finally subjugate all 73 parallel universes under his control.

or free them, altogether, from the slavery they got into with the human-faced bankers

[boonies4u]

The Earth is limited. Capitalism is not. Capitalism is destroying life on Earth and at some point we'll need smart money with AI that allows for a sustainable economy.

There is other solution -- to distribute mankind in the Space.
All we need to do this :
1) Cheap method to transfer a lot of people to other planets
 with speed of light.
2) Nanotechnology for changing those planets into
human friendly ones.
3) maybe something else ?

Planet Cracking

[GideonGono]

Stage 9:
Stage 10: Finally after all these years, PROFIT!
----------------------------------------------------------------

Seems quite a way off though. Esp the part about nations adopting it. States have a habit of being illiterate when it comes to the writing being on the wall. It took inflation of hundreds of millions of % before the Zimbabwe govt realized the local currency was finished and the finally dollarized. After majority of transactions were done in forex illegally anyway.

[cbeast]

The Earth is limited. Capitalism is not. Capitalism is destroying life on Earth and at some point we'll need smart money with AI that allows for a sustainable economy.

There is other solution -- to distribute mankind in the Space.
All we need to do this :
1) Cheap method to transfer a lot of people to other planets
 with speed of light.
2) Nanotechnology for changing those planets into
human friendly ones.
3) maybe something else ?

That's why I support Bitcoin. Decentralized money will lead to decentralized business will lead to a decentralized civilization that values technology over scarcity. The planet will become sustainable when we stop valuing materials simply for their scarcity. Carbon, Hydrogen, and Oxygen are among the most valuable resources we have. Their properties support life and energy. Just surviving on this planet let alone going to other planets will require a species (probably not us) capable of living sustainably.

[boonies4u]

The Earth is limited. Capitalism is not. Capitalism is destroying life on Earth and at some point we'll need smart money with AI that allows for a sustainable economy.

There is other solution -- to distribute mankind in the Space.
All we need to do this :
1) Cheap method to transfer a lot of people to other planets
 with speed of light.
2) Nanotechnology for changing those planets into
human friendly ones.
3) maybe something else ?

That's why I support Bitcoin. Decentralized money will lead to decentralized business will lead to a decentralized civilization that values technology over scarcity. The planet will become sustainable when we stop valuing materials simply for their scarcity. Carbon, Hydrogen, and Oxygen are among the most valuable resources we have. Their properties support life and energy. Just surviving on this planet let alone going to other planets will require a species (probably not us) capable of living sustainably.

Isn't scarcity helping the value of bitcoin right now? Don't be so loud.

[cbeast]

Isn't scarcity helping the value of bitcoin right now? Don't be so loud.

There are several alternate block chains such as namecoin, etc. They are just as or more scarce than Bitcoin, yet are worth far less. Scarcity itself does not add value. Usefulness adds value also. I don't care about the value of Bitcoin going up right now. I am more concerned about the technology developed using Bitcoin. That will add the real value.

[cbeast]

Just surviving on this planet let alone going to other planets will require a species (probably not us) capable of living sustainably.

Do you mean immortal cyborgs ?!
They will become reality just about 40 years from now.

And then we shall have a huge problem : Humans vs Super-humans.

Can't be any worse than Humans vs Humans like we have now.

[coin_toss]

Stage 0: Trading Bitcoin as a commodity. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 1: Social Networking will adapt Bitcoin for micropayments. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 2: Commerce will embrace Bitcoin as an overlay mechanism, like Paypal. Speculation will drive value one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 3: Bitcoin will replace local banking for businesses enjoying low fees. Local legislatures will officially recognize Bitcoin. Speculation peaks.
Stage 4: Nations will begin to decouple currencies and adapt Bitcoin.
Stage 5: Nations and corporations will merge as they lose their competitive advantage over decentralized enterprises.
Stage 6: National borders will dissolve as decentralized enterprises evolve into AI driven civilization planning.
Stage 7: Bitcoin will evolve into a scientific-method based algorithm using Asimovian principles.
Stage 8: Ebil robot zombies will eat our brains and conquer the Universe.

While i personally would love to see your stages come to pass (especially the zombie one) I do not think they will. Stage 0 is obviously already happening. Stage 1 however seems VERY unlikely, as long as social media is dominated by Facebook. Facebook is developing their own credit system, and have no reason whatsoever to accept bitcoins. As your whole plan really depends on stage 1 for launching, none of the other stages will come to pass either. Even if facebook is derailed by google+ or perhaps some other unknown player, what incentive would they have to allow bitcoins and not adopt their own version of facebook credits?

[cbeast]

Stage 0: Trading Bitcoin as a commodity. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 1: Social Networking will adapt Bitcoin for micropayments. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 2: Commerce will embrace Bitcoin as an overlay mechanism, like Paypal. Speculation will drive value one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 3: Bitcoin will replace local banking for businesses enjoying low fees. Local legislatures will officially recognize Bitcoin. Speculation peaks.
Stage 4: Nations will begin to decouple currencies and adapt Bitcoin.
Stage 5: Nations and corporations will merge as they lose their competitive advantage over decentralized enterprises.
Stage 6: National borders will dissolve as decentralized enterprises evolve into AI driven civilization planning.
Stage 7: Bitcoin will evolve into a scientific-method based algorithm using Asimovian principles.
Stage 8: Ebil robot zombies will eat our brains and conquer the Universe.

While i personally would love to see your stages come to pass (especially the zombie one) I do not think they will. Stage 0 is obviously already happening. Stage 1 however seems VERY unlikely, as long as social media is dominated by Facebook. Facebook is developing their own credit system, and have no reason whatsoever to accept bitcoins. As your whole plan really depends on stage 1 for launching, none of the other stages will come to pass either. Even if facebook is derailed by google+ or perhaps some other unknown player, what incentive would they have to allow bitcoins and not adopt their own version of facebook credits?

I thought about physical Bitcoin possibly added to Stage 1 to help boost acceptance to stage 2, but I'm not sure that they will get beyond collectors items. Getting Bitcoin out of the hands of geeks and on the streets will be tough.

[boonies4u]

Stage 0: Trading Bitcoin as a commodity. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 1: Social Networking will adapt Bitcoin for micropayments. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 2: Commerce will embrace Bitcoin as an overlay mechanism, like Paypal. Speculation will drive value one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 3: Bitcoin will replace local banking for businesses enjoying low fees. Local legislatures will officially recognize Bitcoin. Speculation peaks.
Stage 4: Nations will begin to decouple currencies and adapt Bitcoin.
Stage 5: Nations and corporations will merge as they lose their competitive advantage over decentralized enterprises.
Stage 6: National borders will dissolve as decentralized enterprises evolve into AI driven civilization planning.
Stage 7: Bitcoin will evolve into a scientific-method based algorithm using Asimovian principles.
Stage 8: Ebil robot zombies will eat our brains and conquer the Universe.

While i personally would love to see your stages come to pass (especially the zombie one) I do not think they will. Stage 0 is obviously already happening. Stage 1 however seems VERY unlikely, as long as social media is dominated by Facebook. Facebook is developing their own credit system, and have no reason whatsoever to accept bitcoins. As your whole plan really depends on stage 1 for launching, none of the other stages will come to pass either. Even if facebook is derailed by google+ or perhaps some other unknown player, what incentive would they have to allow bitcoins and not adopt their own version of facebook credits?

I thought about physical Bitcoin possibly added to Stage 1 to help boost acceptance to stage 2, but I'm not sure that they will get beyond collectors items. Getting Bitcoin out of the hands of geeks and on the streets will be tough.

Reverse mugging?

[coin_toss]

Stage 0: Trading Bitcoin as a commodity. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 1: Social Networking will adapt Bitcoin for micropayments. Speculation will drive value to one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 2: Commerce will embrace Bitcoin as an overlay mechanism, like Paypal. Speculation will drive value one or two orders of magnitude.
Stage 3: Bitcoin will replace local banking for businesses enjoying low fees. Local legislatures will officially recognize Bitcoin. Speculation peaks.
Stage 4: Nations will begin to decouple currencies and adapt Bitcoin.
Stage 5: Nations and corporations will merge as they lose their competitive advantage over decentralized enterprises.
Stage 6: National borders will dissolve as decentralized enterprises evolve into AI driven civilization planning.
Stage 7: Bitcoin will evolve into a scientific-method based algorithm using Asimovian principles.
Stage 8: Ebil robot zombies will eat our brains and conquer the Universe.

While i personally would love to see your stages come to pass (especially the zombie one) I do not think they will. Stage 0 is obviously already happening. Stage 1 however seems VERY unlikely, as long as social media is dominated by Facebook. Facebook is developing their own credit system, and have no reason whatsoever to accept bitcoins. As your whole plan really depends on stage 1 for launching, none of the other stages will come to pass either. Even if facebook is derailed by google+ or perhaps some other unknown player, what incentive would they have to allow bitcoins and not adopt their own version of facebook credits?

I thought about physical Bitcoin possibly added to Stage 1 to help boost acceptance to stage 2, but I'm not sure that they will get beyond collectors items. Getting Bitcoin out of the hands of geeks and on the streets will be tough.

I think that the outcome your stage 1 would achieve (greater btc acceptance) could well happen, just not necessarily through social media. There is still that thing called word of mouth you know