Russia More Than Triples Current-Account Surplus to $167 Billion

[Lucius]

But that won't stop the Russians from watching the impressive spectacle of EU energy suicide. Any sane person understands that it is impossible to replace the falling volumes of energy supplies either this winter, or even next.

There won't be any spectacle like your president and 150 million Russians hope for, although many enjoy the very thought that people will freeze all over the EU next winter. In one of the topics, I posted an infographic that shows that the underground gas storage in the EU member states is being filled at a quite satisfactory pace and that there will be enough gas, especially if the announcements that the winter will not be too cold are true.


https://agsi.gie.eu/

And with the planes, we'll come up with something, don't even hesitate. If a country is capable of developing sixth-generation fighters, it will somehow figure it out with passenger airliners.

I would not brag about your military planes, which until today have not managed to dominate the sky above Ukraine, and therefore I think that it is just ordinary propaganda that Russia is powerful. The story that the sanctions failed serves the short-term propaganda of the Russian government, and everyone should know that sanctions cannot create the desired effects so quickly. It will take at least a few years for that to happen, and even if they don't succeed completely, at least we will be on the right side of history.

[stompix]

Interesting, I didn't know.

You didn't know because that never happened outside the Iran propaganda network.

The reality is that for a brief period of time the sanctions were loosened a bit and Iran went on a shopping spree, ordering airplanes worth 24 billion from both Airbus and Boeing, when sanctioned come back again they dropped some orders that were never going to be fulfilled in time and bought tens of old planes some even decommissioned to have them for spare part.
You can see the arrival of the new jets here:
https://thepointsguy.com/2017/03/inside-iran-air-a320-a321-aircraft/
And the full story is here:
https://simpleflying.com/iran-air-airbus-order/

So no, it's not something like Iran is managing to create spare parts for its planes, that's just wishful thinking.
The reality is that sanctions do work, and they work tremendously well, one picture worth 3000 words



I do hope Russia will take this advice and in 5 years we're not going to compare the Russian economy with Texas or California but with Yellowstone Park.

And with the planes, we'll come up with something, don't even hesitate. If a country is capable of developing sixth-generation fighters, it will somehow figure it out with passenger airliners.

I would not brag about your military planes, which until today have not managed to dominate the sky above Ukraine, and therefore I think that it is just ordinary propaganda that Russia is powerful.

Oh, but they do have 6th generation planes! Definitely!
I mean, maybe it's true that their own military doesn't know that since even the su57 is the fifth generation, but they totally do. It's the new super stealth aircraft that you can see at all, it's so stealth even the bombs dropped from it don't do any visual damage at all. 

[be.open]

Did it occur to you that in the same way as "it won't be easy, but Russia will cope", also EU will cope? Of course, it will not be easy, as it's a harsh awakening.
But, as a friend of mine use to say, every kick in the ass produce another step forward. EU may do now (sadly under pressure) some moves they should have done from the first place.
Right now, let's face it, it's a situation both sides are losing similarly and both sides can, similarly, evolve.

Ahaha, you all quarreled there already, although the embargo only on coal began to operate only today. By December, when the oil embargo comes into effect, different EU countries will begin to pull the blanket over themselves. The European Union is sewn together with too fragile threads from too different countries and Europeans are too accustomed to a high standard of living for the European Union to be able to maintain its unity in the face of severe energy shortages. Already several European leaders and governments have resigned since the start of the special operation in Ukraine, and they will all have to resign - because that is how democracy works. And they will be replaced by more sensible politicians who will be forced to abstract from politics and begin urgently solving the economic problems that have accumulated since the pandemic - because that is how democracy works. And in order to quickly solve economic problems, it is not a shortage of energy that is needed, but its excess, which Europe, with all its desire, has nowhere to get from except Russia. Think about it at your leisure.

ps It's strange that I'm telling you how democracy works, because you seem to have completely forgotten about it.

And with the planes, we'll come up with something, don't even hesitate. If a country is capable of developing sixth-generation fighters, it will somehow figure it out with passenger airliners.

I would not brag about your military planes, which until today have not managed to dominate the sky above Ukraine, and therefore I think that it is just ordinary propaganda that Russia is powerful.

Oh, but they do have 6th generation planes! Definitely!
I mean, maybe it's true that their own military doesn't know that since even the su57 is the fifth generation, but they totally do. It's the new super stealth aircraft that you can see at all, it's so stealth even the bombs dropped from it don't do any visual damage at all.  

Fifth-generation fighter jets are already occasionally flying over Ukraine, and Russian design bureaus are developing next-generation fighters, because Russia is always one step ahead and has not stopped new developments even in the most difficult years. The West naively thought that it had defeated the USSR in the Cold War, but in fact, with the collapse of the USSR, it liberated Russia from a dozen fraternal republics that had been sucking all the juice out of Russia for decades. Now try to defeat Russia if you can.

They sit there in Europe with empty arsenals and two front divisions of combat faggots and think they are the kings of this party lol.

[Leviathan.007]

In my own idea, Russia was very much really for everything which is happening right now for them because they know just after attacking Ukraine many countries and especially nano countries will try to put them under pressure. The best thing they can do is economic sanctions. which is not really helpful because Russia got plans for it and still there are many other countries like China and India the op mentioned they would keep trading with Russia so the sanctions will be not really helpful and Russia will not have many financial problems.

[NeuroticFish]

Ahaha, you all quarreled there already, although the embargo only on coal began to operate only today. By December, when the oil embargo comes into effect, different EU countries will begin to pull the blanket over themselves. The European Union is sewn together with too fragile threads from too different countries and Europeans are too accustomed to a high standard of living for the European Union to be able to maintain its unity in the face of severe energy shortages.

You've watched too much propaganda and have read too few real news.
While shortages are indeed possible, it's the industry that will be affected most, not the population, exactly because the politicians love their seats.

Already several European leaders and governments have resigned since the start of the special operation in shameless invasion of Ukraine, and they will all have to resign - because that is how democracy works. And they will be replaced by more sensible politicians who will be forced to abstract from politics and begin urgently solving the economic problems that have accumulated since the pandemic - because that is how democracy works. And in order to quickly solve economic problems, it is not a shortage of energy that is needed, but its excess, which Europe, with all its desire, has nowhere to get from except Russia. Think about it at your leisure.

Russia is overrated and time will show this. Yes, the "green plan" lunacy will have to be postponed for a while, and the supply routes will get redefined.
Russia will be forced to sell less gas and oil on much lower prices. This means less income for a country that relies almost as much as the Arabs on the money coming from this sales. This means shortages your propaganda seems to forget about. Even more, you don't have to be rocket scientist to understand that the lack of money is not visible that much on short term, it's getting visible over years, when the infrastructure will fall apart.
It's a bit ironic that you are preaching us the greatness of Russia, greatness this war has shown it was only a facade.

European leaders going down? Of course some do, it happens all the time. I don't feel that it's much of difference from the pre-war COVID related days. It's part of how democracies work.
And while you seem to be noticing only anti-Russians going down, I notice "friends of Russia" now helping Ukraine's defense (you know, democracy, freedom of choice...). However, I remember that Russia's traditional enemy was USA, not EU, still, the propaganda tells only about the harm EU took, and nothing about USA. And you know why? Because Putin's stupid war intended against NATO, just made NATO and USA stronger.

ps It's strange that I'm telling you how democracy works, because you seem to have completely forgotten about it.

You seem to have no idea what democracy is.

If a country is capable of developing sixth-generation fighters, it will somehow figure it out with passenger airliners.

I've missed this in the last post and I'll tell here. Somehow your whatever generation planes seem to remember far too good that they're heavier than the air. As I said, Russia's greatness was proven to exist only "on paper".

[be.open]

Sorry, your message is too long and I will allow myself to answer it selectively.

Russia will be forced to sell less gas and oil on much lower prices.

And how do you plan to implement it? And most importantly, when? So far, all the efforts of the West to ensure that Russia begins to earn less and cannot afford to continue the special operation ends with the fact that we are discussing a record positive trade balance of Russia, that is, the West was able to significantly reduce imports to Russia by sanctions, but could not even close proportionally reduce export from Russia. And even if physical export from Russia still fell, this brings more money to the Russian budget, because oil prices are quite high, and gas prices are even inadequately high. The weak link in the cornerstone of your reasoning is that you wishful thinking.

This means shortages your propaganda seems to forget about.

But I hope you remember the chronic deficit of your budget well. For many years of zero and even negative rates, the European Union has become accustomed to living beyond its means, plugging huge holes in the budget with loan allocations. Welcome to the era of rising key rates. Welcome to the era of double digit inflation. And say goodbye to the era of cheap money, the European Union is already on the verge of bankruptcy - and you fantasize about the coming financial difficulties of Russia? Take care of your pressing financial difficulties. Who in their right mind would buy European bonds with negative yields, especially after Europe froze Russian money in front of the whole world? This is not Russia, an unreliable supplier of energy resources, but the European Union, an unreliable buyer. Look at the dynamics of the euro exchange rate, if now for one euro they give one dollar, then in six months for one euro they will only give 50 cents, and in a year for one euro they will give you a fist in the eye. Think about it at your leisure.

While shortages are indeed possible, it's the industry that will be affected most, not the population, exactly because the politicians love their seats.

Well, of course, the European Union will do a great job with the shortage of gas if it stops the heavy and chemical industries. The main thing is that ten million Ukrainian refugees and ten million new unemployed people do not freeze from the cold in winter. Great plan, as reliable as a Swiss watch.  

[Hydrogen]

It seems, despite the image that some media may give us, that Russia is not doing badly financially.

Russia More Than Triples Current-Account Surplus to $167 Billion

There's a significant difference between the united states invading countries in the middle east at a cost of more than $12 trillion.

And russia invading ukraine while generating positive revenue.

Generally analysts look at the technology, accuracy, speed and range of military weapons of war.

In the modern era, perhaps we can see that cost of operation is a more relevant statistic.

Russia can wage war in a cost effective manner. While the united states and europe may lack the capacity to do the same.

It could set the stage for economic collapse in western nations, while russia is less hampered by deficits or debt.

Irony being what it is, russia appears to have learned valuable lessons from the default and collapse of the USSR.

While the USA and other nations of the world appear determined to recreate the USSR's budgetary mistakes.

[DrBeer]

It seems, despite the image that some media may give us, that Russia is not doing badly financially.

Russia More Than Triples Current-Account Surplus to $167 Billion

Russia’s current-account surplus more than tripled from last year after notching record levels since the invasion of Ukraine, as declines in imports combined with booming revenues from energy and commodity sales abroad.

The surplus in the current account, the broadest measure of trade and investment flows, widened to almost $167 billion in January-July, compared with just over $50 billion during the same period a year earlier, the Bank of Russia said in a preliminary estimate published on Tuesday.

The proceeds have become a critical source of hard currency for the Kremlin since the invasion in February. A collapse in imports, driven in part by international sanctions over the war, has contributed to the surplus. It reached a preliminary $138.5 billion for the first six months of 2022.

When you consider how pathetic it is that sanctions have been imposed on Russia by the European Union, have resulted in things like this:

LMAO: India resells Russian oil to the European Union.

It is not surprising to read that Russia is profiting from this situation.

The situation in Russia is well described by this funny phrase: "...things in the country were going badly. That is, not so bad, one could even say good, but every year it gets worse and worse"

A certain surge of income, due to the economic terror of the EU, looks like a premortal, unexpected activity of a dying person. It happens - a person fades away, he gets worse and worse, and then such a surge of activity, he looks like he is recovering ... but after 3-5 days he dies. The same is happening with Russia. The next 3-4 months will be critical for Russia - an irreversible loss of the European market for gas supplies. Even Germany turned away from the bloody ghouls from the Kremlin! Ahead is the EU's rejection of Russian oil, to be more precise - tanker oil, which makes up the bulk of deliveries to the EU (a pipeline, if I'm not mistaken, something like - up to 15% of the total). The costs of "maintaining" the ruble (should the people be shown a beautiful fairy tale before they die? ) are enormous. Even more huge costs of war and terror in Ukraine. Especially after the friends of Ukraine supplied Ukraine with high-tech weapons - the losses and losses of Russia are growing unrealistically quickly and on a large scale. And Western technologies are no longer there ... And they won’t be!
In a word - watch the patient, and do not miss the moment to say goodbye to him while he is still moving

[paxmao]

components for airplanes.

Iran is manufacturing plane components and is replacing whatever market Russia lost:

Interesting, I didn't know. Thank you.

And who promised that it would be easy? There are problems with airplanes, cars, microelectronics, software - they are serious and need to be addressed. Of course, Russia will cope with these challenges one way or another. But that won't stop the Russians from watching the impressive spectacle of EU energy suicide. Any sane person understands that it is impossible to replace the falling volumes of energy supplies either this winter, or even next. And with the planes, we'll come up with something, don't even hesitate. If a country is capable of developing sixth-generation fighters, it will somehow figure it out with passenger airliners.

Did it occur to you that in the same way as "it won't be easy, but Russia will cope", also EU will cope? Of course, it will not be easy, as it's a harsh awakening.
But, as a friend of mine use to say, every kick in the ass produce another step forward. EU may do now (sadly under pressure) some moves they should have done from the first place.
Right now, let's face it, it's a situation both sides are losing similarly and both sides can, similarly, evolve.

Precisely Iran than is under sanctions? May you comment on how is Iran getting hold of the high tech electronics when under sanctions and with an economy down the drain?

The EU has plenty of flexibility to choose a strategy despite a short term initial issues. Gas terminals are rented and build, nuclear reactors get a lease of life, back to coal if required,... nothing like suicide.

[sehishei]

A series of sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia have led to a significant decrease in Russian imports, coupled with a surge in Russian energy and commodity export revenue, which has expanded the trade surplus. Russia's natural gas exports to Europe have effectively stopped, oil exports have not grown significantly, and exports of other commodities are declining, such as metallurgy, lumber, gold, etc., and world commodity market prices have dropped. The sword eventually pointed to Europe and the United States themselves.

[Sithara007]

The Russo-Ukrainian war is in to it's 6th month now. Let's look back at some of the calculations and judgements made by both the sides when the war started. From Russian side, they made the miscalculation that Ukrainian defenses would crumble and they would be able to over-run Kiev within a month. That never happened. And also, they never thought that half of their forex reserves would be frozen. On the NATO side, they overestimated the efficiency of their sanctions. They expected the Russian Ruble to disintegrate and on the other hand it strengthened further, sanctions only had a minimal impact on Russia and on the other hand, they resulted in huge price increases for fuel and electricity in those countries that were imposing sanctions. 

[be.open]

The situation in Russia is well described by this funny phrase: "...things in the country were going badly. That is, not so bad, one could even say good, but every year it gets worse and worse"

A certain surge of income, due to the economic terror of the EU, looks like a premortal, unexpected activity of a dying person. It happens - a person fades away, he gets worse and worse, and then such a surge of activity, he looks like he is recovering ... but after 3-5 days he dies. The same is happening with Russia. The next 3-4 months will be critical for Russia - an irreversible loss of the European market for gas supplies. Even Germany turned away from the bloody ghouls from the Kremlin! Ahead is the EU's rejection of Russian oil, to be more precise - tanker oil, which makes up the bulk of deliveries to the EU (a pipeline, if I'm not mistaken, something like - up to 15% of the total). The costs of "maintaining" the ruble (should the people be shown a beautiful fairy tale before they die? ) are enormous. Even more huge costs of war and terror in Ukraine. Especially after the friends of Ukraine supplied Ukraine with high-tech weapons - the losses and losses of Russia are growing unrealistically quickly and on a large scale. And Western technologies are no longer there ... And they won’t be!
In a word - watch the patient, and do not miss the moment to say goodbye to him while he is still moving

Lol.

Dude, you don't understand what's going on in Russia at all. The government and the Central Bank are now making great efforts to, on the contrary, avoid an excessive strengthening of the ruble (because it is unprofitable with such a huge trade surplus). In short, a huge flow of euros is now going to Russia for the supplied energy resources, and these euros have nowhere to spend. The euro for Russia is now an extremely toxic monetary asset, with high risks of blocking due to many sanctions. Under the terms of Putin's "gas for rubles" scheme, euros coming to Gazprombank should be immediately exchanged for rubles through the stock exchange, but who and why will buy them there and where will he spend them? This is one of the main reasons why Nord Stream pumps only 20% of its capacity, because Russia does not need as many euros as Europe needs Russian gas!

With the US dollar, the situation is simpler, because the US dependence on Russia is not as strong as that of Europe, and because the dollar is still the world's reserve currency and is welcomed in many places in the world. And the euro is used only in Europe and is only suitable for paying for European goods, which are almost all now under sanctions for Russia. This is not a very good situation for Russia and a complete fuck-up for the European Union.

[el kaka22]

This is nothing; yeah, because they already got those people who had money back into the nation and into the economy and they have this, but they won't have it forever. As long as everyone else agrees that they are not going to end up with something special and remove sanctions or something, then Russia will sell less and less and less to the world.

The renewable energy sector will keep on growing bigger, and eventually people will not want what Russia has. This is a short term gain for them, good for them too because money today means a lot more than money tomorrow, so if they invest it accordingly and get ahead, they could keep on being a superpower, but if they get victory drunk, then they will end up losing a lot more in the future.

[pooya87]

I would not brag about your military planes, which until today have not managed to dominate the sky above Ukraine,

I'm not a military analyst but I don't think Russia wanted to use its planes because losing a pilot is too expensive a loss to risk it. Any other asset (except maybe big warships) could be replaced (ground troops, tanks, radars/SAMs and their operators) but a pilot can not be easily replaced.
This is why I've always said the future wars is fought with drones not people.

Precisely Iran than is under sanctions? May you comment on how is Iran getting hold of the high tech electronics when under sanctions and with an economy down the drain?

I said components that includes a lot more than just electronics and majority of it is manufactured domestically. You should be more specific about what part for me to say if it is manufactured domestically or not if the information is public.

P.S. economy is not down the drain the exchange rate is and that's because of the printing spree that the previous presidents were on

[zasad@]

The renewable energy sector will keep on growing bigger, and eventually people will not want what Russia has. This is a short term gain for them, good for them too because money today means a lot more than money tomorrow, so if they invest it accordingly and get ahead, they could keep on being a superpower, but if they get victory drunk, then they will end up losing a lot more in the future.

Renewable energy sources for production needs are complete crap. Europe is France and Germany, whose economy allows the European Union to exist. They need cheap resources for this, and now there is nowhere to get it from. The economic downturn in Europe will be much stronger than in Russia.

[Lucius]

I would not brag about your military planes, which until today have not managed to dominate the sky above Ukraine,

I'm not a military analyst but I don't think Russia wanted to use its planes because losing a pilot is too expensive a loss to risk it. Any other asset (except maybe big warships) could be replaced (ground troops, tanks, radars/SAMs and their operators) but a pilot can not be easily replaced.
This is why I've always said the future wars is fought with drones not people.

It is true that modern military planes are terribly expensive, and pilot training is demanding, expensive and time-consuming, but the fact is that you cannot skimp on such things if you want to achieve superiority in the air. The fact is that Ukraine has very successfully defended its airspace since the beginning of the invasion, and today it is doing it even better and more efficiently. Drones are of course something that is being used more and more, but military planes are still something that every sovereign country that cares about its security wants to have.

Speaking of drones, these days I am reading news about Russia buying drones from Iran (Shahed-129 and Shahed-191) and that the Russian delegation has already visited the Kasan air base several times to see for themselves their capabilities.

[Sithara007]

It is true that modern military planes are terribly expensive, and pilot training is demanding, expensive and time-consuming, but the fact is that you cannot skimp on such things if you want to achieve superiority in the air. The fact is that Ukraine has very successfully defended its airspace since the beginning of the invasion, and today it is doing it even better and more efficiently. Drones are of course something that is being used more and more, but military planes are still something that every sovereign country that cares about its security wants to have.

Speaking of drones, these days I am reading news about Russia buying drones from Iran (Shahed-129 and Shahed-191) and that the Russian delegation has already visited the Kasan air base several times to see for themselves their capabilities.

It is surprising that the defense capability of Russia is not very uniform. They have some of the best ballistic missiles, submarines and air-defense systems in the world, but they are lacking in some of the basic sectors such as armed drones and APCs. My understanding is that they are a bit behind in new defense technology sectors, such as UAVs, but are good in improving already existing sectors. Their purchase of drones from Iran is very surprising. I never thought that Iran had such advanced defense industry. This is a warning sign to anti-Iranian alliance nations, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel.

[pooya87]

you cannot skimp on such things if you want to achieve superiority in the air.

Evidence suggests that you can. Take United States for example, according to what CENTCOM commander Gen. McKenzie told the House Committee on Armed Services a year ago, US hasn't had air superiority in countries they are occupying for the past years. That's all because of the drone threat they are facing, and we are talking about primitive drones like Qasef that poorest countries like Yemen use to hit US bases occupying their country not even the advanced ones owned by Iran such as those with artificial intelligence.

Speaking of drones, these days I am reading news about Russia buying drones from Iran (Shahed-129 and Shahed-191) and that the Russian delegation has already visited the Kasan air base several times to see for themselves their capabilities.

That's just media putting a magnifying glass on a normal thing that has been going on for a couple of years. Considering the fact that Iran has been mass producing modern weapons, export has always been one of the plans; ever since the UN arms embargo was removed in 2020 the Iranian advanced weapons have been sold in global markets. For example earlier this year in Doha International Maritime Defense Exhibition in Qatar, the Iranian made AD-200 long-range air defense missile system was present among other things (the selling point was the US stealth aircraft right across the hall that the system had shot down the previous year!).
Or the drone production line that was installed for Tajikistan to help them fight terrorism in the region using the multi-purpose Ababil drones.

As for this particular news it's hard to say if it is true unless some evidence comes out.
- On one hand the media has been filled with a lot of nonsense lately (like the recent thing about Russia needing the Iranian satelite to spy on Ukraine lol). Neither side has either approved or rejected these claims.
- On another hand there has been a military relationship between Iran and Russia (clear from things like the naval drills over the past years in Indian Ocean and soon in North Atlantic Ocean). Also considering that Iran's drone industry is leaps and bounds ahead while the airforce is behind in regular manned planes, this could be true and about a swap (Shahed family for Sukhoi technology).

[stompix]

For example earlier this year in Doha International Maritime Defense Exhibition in Qatar, the Iranian made AD-200 long-range air defense missile system was present among other things (the selling point was the US stealth aircraft right across the hall that the system had shot down the previous year!).

In case you're not watching the news, even the Iran government has admitted it targeted something else and downed a civilian planed killing 200 innocent civilians, mostly Iranian with that crappy system of yours.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_International_Airlines_Flight_752

So, yeah the entire world has seen how accurate Iranian weapons are, on par with the Russian buks system.
Stick your lying propaganda where it belongs, seems like the more zeros the Rial has against the $, the lower the purchasing power and affordability of food in Iran, and the more people being shot and executed by asking for bread the more we hear about those wundervaffen that will crush the capitalist pigs.

It is surprising that the defense capability of Russia is not very uniform. They have some of the best ballistic missiles, submarines and air-defense systems in the world, but they are lacking in some of the basic sectors such as armed drones and APCs. My understanding is that they are a bit behind in new defense technology sectors,

What a surprise, everything about their might military was a lie, but you still believe things about their might economy..
Cause, it makes sense!

Drones are of course something that is being used more and more, but military planes are still something that every sovereign country that cares about its security wants to have.
Speaking of drones, these days I am reading news about Russia buying drones from Iran (Shahed-129 and Shahed-191) and that the Russian delegation has already visited the Kasan air base several times to see for themselves their capabilities.

Of course, you won't hear it from pooya87 but the Israeli F35 have just had a few of those for dinner, so, it won't be a game changer in a combat theater even without those but where still nearly every guy has a manpad on his shoulder.

[kryptqnick]

While I agree that the sanctions haven't hit Russia as much as was anticipated and some pretty smart financial policies helped the fiat currency stabilize, I also have a couple of questions. First is that the Bloomberg article is based on the Bank of Russia publication. If Russians lied they wouldn't invade, lied that they didn't torture civilians in Bucha, and that they didn't bomb Mariupol, then HOW do we know that they're not lying right now with this report? What's stopping Russian bank from simply writing up pretty numbers to show they're doing great while the reality is far from great?
Then look at things like food prices which, according to Russian sources, are roughly a quarter more than a year ago (but some estimates say even higher than that), and car prices are also up by 23% since the start of the full-scale war. I'd take these pretty numbers on a Russian website with a huge grain of salt, but also agree that much more must be done to prevent Russia from comfortably financing its current war.