This thread is born out of the passion I have for trading and regardless of my previous experience on a similar thread on the forum. It would always speak my view about the direction of Bitcoin with chart representations on the 4H, 1D and 1W only. I'm dedicating just one out of the many trading systems I know for this purpose.

One of the reasons I opened this topic is that I discovered that many users of the forum are just quoting the values of Bitcoin randomly without knowing the reason why they do so or what is exactly happening in the market, a lot of assumptions everywhere. Trading and gambling are not the same, such people might learn much through this thread if they are patient enough rather than attacking, being unconstructive or claiming superiority in trading.

I did not open this thread to claim I am better than anyone, and I will try my best to dedicate my precious time to it daily. No one is perfect, any speculation could be right or wrong, so please note that it is my view on Bitcoin and anyone using it to trade is doing so at their own risk, though it might help many to earn massively. "Plan and manage your risks all by yourself." Also, be informed that it is not a must for any targets to be hit, no one controls the market.

Again, please, note that this is my own opinion on Bitcoin, you might have yours, no problem, but let your replies and questions be constructive and wise.


Thank you!

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Bitcoin is bearish in trend on the weekly chart, the whole outlook on the chart attests to that as the market has a bearish price action that wants to continue the selling witnessed last week. However, the major technical levels to watch out for are the peak of last week at 25214.61 (resistance), which doubles as a double-top level and the low of June at 17784.96 (support), which is the low of 2022.

A break above 25214.61 will launch a bullish attach on the trendline resistance at 26337.38, and if further broken, it would be a major breakthrough for the cryptocurrency as it might reverse higher in long-term disposition for a test of 48189.83 and the all-time high of 68999.99 in extension.

At the moment, the trend of Bitcoin is bearish and it aims to test the low of June at 17784.96 provided it maintains a bearish candlestick for this week and holds below 25214.61. A break below this level would further weaken the market as the Stochastic Oscillator points lower and MACD is negative.



[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

Most likely this news will likely thank a toll on the market, and it seems that we are not yet over the ghost of Mt. Gox.

But the Sept fed rate hike meeting is not going to be very good for us, at least they know that the inflation is not slowing down. I mean they are just reacting to what we are seeing and it really doesn't look good.

So I will concur as well with the OP that the market is bearish short term or at least up to the end of 2022.

Now it seems that Bitcoin is going down due to US dollar rising, bond yields are going higher, oil is creeping up and there is hints that the fed might not stop hiking. No idea why.

Seems inflation now is not the problem but the tight labor market. Unless productivity increases and unemployment goes up, it will do little for combating inflation. So all eyes are now at the economic data which will correlation with bitcoins macro moves in the medium future ahead.

Right, sketchy and very tricky as well, we are looking for the sideway pattern right now, but still it can go either direction and hopefully it will not be on the negative side again.


I wanted to see breach 21927.87, that will be huge, this is a big resistance and if we can overcome it, we can still go to $22k at the end of the month. Still a good improvement as compare to those predictions like $18k. or lower.

Fed decision and ethereum merger will have a short time effect on the price of Bitcoin but since that is an external factor their impact will be minimal and Bitcoin will uptrend from that situation in a short time, but also we must settle for one fact that the majority of the year 2022 have been supplied by the bear market and that may continue to the end of the year but will witness pockets of Bitcoin pull attempt and break out price, we should anticipate a Bitcoin price of 35,000 to 40k within the last quarter of the year when all these events settle down and Bitcoin start building a strong resistance.

What happened yesterday shows that Bitcoin is still unwilling to take sides as the battle of short-term supremacy continues between the buyers and the sellers. A false breakout occurred after it breached 21677.65 higher but could not sustain the buying as it topped at 21816.73 before retreating lower till now. Presently, the market is battling to break below the current trendline support on the 4H chart which is lower than yesterday's level at 21344.89. A 4H candle close below it will add bearish credence to what the market would do today.



My preference has however shifted to the daily chart which gives a better insight into what the market might do today. The market is still moving in a tight bound on the chart, so caution is needed. Yesterday's market ended negative and created a Doji on the daily chart. This suggests a negative bias today as a reversal is possible within the sideways movement still seen with the last 7 candlesticks formed on the chart.

Regardless of that, the price action of the last two candlesticks is bearish, which makes me believe that Bitcoin might sell today. But this is provided it stays below 21690.67 (today's opening price) and breaks below 21310.16 (yesterday's low). The Stochastic oscillator is not a problem anymore, it is not oversold again just as MACD continues to be negative in favour of this bearish expectation.

No doubt, Bitcoin is in a bearish trend as the weekly and daily charts confirm it. Yet, we should be wary of the oversold condition on the lower charts, this made me move down to the 4H chart today for a closer look.

On the 4H chart, the market has been making efforts to take a breath higher from the selloff seen in the past two days, it might want to retrace more today before resuming its bearish movements which I will confirm when happens. I expect the retracement to halt at or below the trendline support at 21280.65 and bring about the fall resumption that might make it continue its bearish journey towards 17625.00. A break of that level would mix the outlook of the market.

This is the highly possible scenario as the MACD on the on the 4H, 1D and 1W charts are all negative.

My bullish suspicion of yesterday worked as the market moved higher and has hit a high of 20542.07 ever since then. The bias of the market today is still slightly bullish, it might proceed higher to hit the determining trendline resistance at 20751.65 after a minor correction lower. The condition might then help the buyers to gain full control after breaking the level to afterwards aim for a target of 21825.91 and 20444.42 in extension.

In another view, if the market is hesitant to break 20751.65 and forms a negative price action below it on the 4H chart, it might then slip back to the bearish trend to continue its journey towards 17625.00 (June low). The stochastic oscillator is almost overbought as well.

Bitcoin sold yesterday after hitting the 4H trendline but could not break the level higher and formed a negative price action below the level. This resulted in the market selling, but the volatility was low as it bottomed at $19843.76.

The market is still under pressure today, at least mildly, and will continue selling provided the negative price action could be maintained below the current 4H chart trendline resistance at $20219.07. However, the buyers might take control if the trendline level is broken upwards. Nonetheless, the MACD is negative and the Stochastic oscillator remains bearish in signal and not oversold, which still suggests a bearish trend today.

Yesterday was indecisive as Bitcoin moved up a little and hit the high of the day at 20440.00 but could not proceed further towards my first target at 21825.97.

I am neutral with the direction of the market for now as the whole 4H chart representation is mixed. The market is still above the current trendline support at 19691.32, but with negative price action. While the MACD is also negative and the Stochastic oscillator has neared the oversold region despite being bearish.

These conditions are tricky, and a break below 19691.32 today will slip the market to a bearish trend. Yet, if the price action could turn positive above 19691.32, buyers would take control today.