All Eyes On Bitcoin’s Monthly Close

[calvinweight]

As of this video we have 8 hours left in the month. If we close near $20k the trend is projecting a significant drop in September. The good news is that this should be the last one. The last one is the most emotional though so I’m expecting long wicks and lots of liquidations for those that haven’t done their risk management properly. Buckle up since when September is in the books things will start getting fun for years to come.

https://youtu.be/w6bk4SQuiPU

[NeuroticFish]

You've made two topics today on monthly close? I start to think that this monthly close didn't get the attention you've been expecting and try to do more.

Well, we're in bear market. And the bear market will end. Maybe it did, or maybe it ends today, or in a couple days, weeks or months. Learn to have more patience and enjoy the ride. And yeah, HODL.

[Oceat]

Nah, even if the month end there's a little to expect to the Bitcoin market since we are in the bear market and I don't mind if what happens then I'll just have to HODL. It's frustrating and tiring to watch the market almost everyday just to know if there's an improvement of the price but we should understand that during bear market you can't expect something to change in the market. You just have to hodl and wait patiently for the bull market to come.

[btc_angela]

As of this video we have 8 hours left in the month. If we close near $20k the trend is projecting a significant drop in September. The good news is that this should be the last one. The last one is the most emotional though so I’m expecting long wicks and lots of liquidations for those that haven’t done their risk management properly. Buckle up since when September is in the books things will start getting fun for years to come.

https://youtu.be/w6bk4SQuiPU

It looks like we are going to close the month just above the $20k price. I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop even up to the end of the month because we are in a bear market.

Although usually in December there could be significant increased but nothing spectacular. Nevertheless, as you have said, we should just expect the unexpected and let this year ride all throughout with a good risk management. I guess for the majority, the risk is nothing, I mean we should just hold and see how it goes in the future.

[Charles-Tim]

As of this video we have 8 hours left in the month. If we close near $20k the trend is projecting a significant drop in September.

Significant drop to what price? The significant drop known has been when bitcoin dropped from $48500 to $17600. Can their be a drop from $20000 to prices that re significantly lower? The strength at $20000 is strong and I am not thinking bitcoin would drop much below $20000.

We should not also forget that this is the time to hold.

The good news is that this should be the last one. The last one is the most emotional though so I’m expecting long wicks and lots of liquidations for those that haven’t done their risk management properly. Buckle up since when September is in the books things will start getting fun for years to come.

It is normal that traders that are not good and professional enough would have active trading asset that would be liquidated, but I am not expecting any liquidation for holders which only just bought bitcoin, always remember that 1 BTC equals 1 BTC, no liquidation price, unlike leverage and future and option trading which liquidation is possible.

[NeuroticFish]

As of this video we have 8 hours left in the month. If we close near $20k the trend is projecting a significant drop in September.

Significant drop to what price? The significant drop known has been when bitcoin dropped from $48500 to $17600. Can their be a drop from $20000 to prices that re significantly lower? The strength at $20000 is strong and I am not thinking bitcoin would drop much below $20000.

OP was very focused on this drop, he may have been expecting it exactly in the night between August and September and.. it didn't happen as he expected.
However, I see two conflicting directions here:
1. The historical crypto winter may not be over (may take 1-3 more months) and this means a new leg down is possible (and the worse case scenario is under 10k!).
2. The rainbow chart shows the price is in the low area and it's not much (if any) room for going lower.

Some will go by some indicators, some will go by another, hence some will always be wrong. I find it a good time to buy, HODL and wait for the "winter" to get to an end.

[Yaunfitda]

And it seems we close the month at $20,100? That price though is still uncertain, chances are we might go down again and hit another lower low? I started this year with a bearish perspective just like the majority of us.

So we have the last quarter to proved otherwise, but I highly doubt that we will go up again. Most likely this will be the price for this year around that numbers and worst case is that we will go lower that $17,500.

[Kelvinid]

There are always good things to see in crypto. To see a spike in the market doesn't mean it ends the bear season, not that we expect in this current situation. I see we are too far to end this bearish condition and it is very likely we end up this year like this. Never get excited to see a few pumps these days because later on, it drops back again.

We only have two directions on whether the price of Bitcoin will pump next week or continue to reach the bottom.

[Franctoshi]

The more people are thinking that Bitcoin is going lower to $12k-$10k zones the less likely it is to become, Remember this is exactly what happened at 69k ATH, when almost everyone was saying to the moon "100k"  and what happened was the opposite, Bitcoin tends to do what it wants to do at any given time, it's high time we just HODL and leave the market to do what it wants to do.

Don't forget that there are a lot factors that do drive the market like the macro factor and fears etc. in terms of fears, sometimes the market makers can just create fears in the market through various ways in order to buy. However , looking at the market structure using the monthly time frame, the possibility of Bitcoin getting a retest of 12k-10k cannot be thrown away, but it still a probability which may happen or may not.
In the other hands, market could equally decide to use the $17500 as reverseal point and not drop to the $12-$10k zones, and In addition to that, Remember that the four years simple moving average for Bitcoin is a the 21k.

Therefore, In my general view of the market, it's mostly likely that January 2023 could decide the bottom for Bitcoin base on past histories after Bitcoin's having, bottom of the market was during the month of January if I'm not wrong.

[STT]

Monthly close matters, I dont know except in total sum its higher volume so has to be taken seriously as a good indictor for direction over shorter term measures. 

Here is my very brief view, not monthly just recently we are in tiny bit of a triangle.  I want to see it break out of this and give us a clue where we go next:

[Baofeng]

It really makes me laugh when I read on the forum that people really believe in the new Bitcoin ATH at the end of this year.

Perhaps they really don't understand what bear market means, or hasn't seen it before. But for us who have been here at least in 2017, have seen the worst in 2018-2020, this is just a repeat, so mostly likely this year is just the start of the bear market and might continue till 2023 or early 2024 or prior to the halving, approximately in May.

So yeah, we can't do anything at every month's end so just be prepared for the worst this quarter, at the end of the month. I still remember 2018 December though, some pump before Christmas and New Year, but that's it.

[adaseb]

I think all eyes will be on sept 13th which is significant because it’s when the ETH merge happens and when the CPI is released.

The CPI is important because if we get a low number then we will rally hard. If we get something high like 1% again then we will dump hard since it means more rate hikes.

[tbterryboy]

I think all eyes will be on sept 13th which is significant because it’s when the ETH merge happens and when the CPI is released.

The CPI is important because if we get a low number then we will rally hard. If we get something high like 1% again then we will dump hard since it means more rate hikes.

All of us already marked that dates but first, we are looking forward on what will the price be of bitcoin before we end this month of august because that will usually have an impact on the start of a new month. So, btc declined a little bit during the last minutes of august which resulted for us to see a 19k dollar in price this September.

I think the bloodbath may continue for the next 2 to 3 weeks. Eth on the side can just continue on its transition from proof of work to proof of stake and that may caused a price boost on its own value which could also affect some of the altcoins and tokens but not in btc because btc is on a different line.

[Reid]

I have always thought the last bear did happen and we are now on a portion where patience is crucial.
Who will give up? Who have the weakest hands to let go of their investment just because of impatience? Dejavu of what happened before where we are also in a moment that nothing can be done but wait.
And if it's true that the number of weak hands did increase then yes, another plummet will come.
Almost 4 months now that we are playing at 18-21k. I think that's a good sign.

[Alisha-k]

Bitcoin closed around $20207 last month an the fear of a persistent bear market is likely to happen in the 3rd quarter of the year. The bear even kept pushing down ward in the first four days of september. If there could be a possible market recovery it will be too difficult to tell because it seems the bears are not getting exhausted at all

[STT]

Looking at the monthly bar is not giving any great significance, the Aug bar traded mostly within the range of the prior bar July and reflected that increasingly the price was constricted.  We have broken that price range now it would seem, we had a larger movement on the 6th as it broke downwards back into the teens; this conclusion must not be confirmed in order to be valid.  
   I think now if we cannot regain that lost range for August end then we should be ready for a larger bias downwards.   Positive recovery is what we have today onwards & above 19.2k we are above a 2 day average but it has to keep building in that way or its a far larger danger that its a lower ledge we fall to.][

[Dave1]

I think all eyes will be on sept 13th which is significant because it’s when the ETH merge happens and when the CPI is released.

Oh, I thought that it is going to happen on Sept 6. That's why I was surprised to see the damage on the price near the ETH merge but I was wrong with the date. Although the market has bounce back to the $19k'ish and maybe on the 13th we may see some pump in the whole crypto because of the said merge.

The CPI is important because if we get a low number then we will rally hard. If we get something high like 1% again then we will dump hard since it means more rate hikes.

I agree, whenever the monthly CPI is released the market reactive positive or negative, just like the rest of other traditional markets. So this is again very important to watch.

[btc78]

As of this video we have 8 hours left in the month. If we close near $20k the trend is projecting a significant drop in September. The good news is that this should be the last one. The last one is the most emotional though so I’m expecting long wicks and lots of liquidations for those that haven’t done their risk management properly. Buckle up since when September is in the books things will start getting fun for years to come.

https://youtu.be/w6bk4SQuiPU

but week after your post? yet the trend still falling so your link does not comply to what you wanted to imply to the forum.
20k wasn't the lowest because now as we speak there is a 19k holding but still chane to fall back again to 18k.
and this is not the last emotional time as there are more to come this whole 2022 as we are near to enter the last quarter.

[Davian144]

Bitcoin closed around $20207 last month an the fear of a persistent bear market is likely to happen in the 3rd quarter of the year. The bear even kept pushing down ward in the first four days of september. If there could be a possible market recovery it will be too difficult to tell because it seems the bears are not getting exhausted at all

Really, really not tired of being bear in the current market. Because yesterday I was surprised when I saw the continued decline in the market that made market conditions look worse even though it looked better for those who wanted to buy Bitcoin in a certain amount at a super cheap price. But I still don't hesitate to keep holding Bitcoin and try to hold it for the long term or until my desired price is reached again on Bitcoin.

[ethereumhunter]

Really, really not tired of being bear in the current market. Because yesterday I was surprised when I saw the continued decline in the market that made market conditions look worse even though it looked better for those who wanted to buy Bitcoin in a certain amount at a super cheap price. But I still don't hesitate to keep holding Bitcoin and try to hold it for the long term or until my desired price is reached again on Bitcoin.

Waiting for the market to move can be an exciting activity because if it turns out that the price drops drastically right away, that's a good time to buy some. Yesterday's slump in the market indicates that we are given a good time to buy bitcoins but it looks like not many will be able to use it to buy but just keep waiting. It's great if you just keep waiting and hold on to bitcoins while waiting for the price to rise again. We want to sell bitcoin at the next high, which could be a new ATH later.