Bitcoin could drop to $10,000 by 2023 as the Fed normalizes interest rate policy

[Jiovanni]

Bitcoin could plummet 76% from current levels to $10,000 by 2023 as the cryptocurrency faces three macro headwinds that have an influence on its price, according to a note from Stifel's Barry Bannister.

Bannister highlighted global money supply, the 10-Year US Treasury yield, and the equity risk premium of the S&P 500 that have influence over the price of bitcoin. Planned tightening by the Federal Reserve in the form of interest rate hikes and a reduction in its balance sheet could have a negative impact on the price of bitcoin, according to Bannister.

"In 2022, we see bitcoin in a broad trading range bounded by year-to-date intra-day levels with greater downside risk in 2023 if the Fed continues to normalize policy in a 'standard' two-year tightening cycle," Bannister explained.

s/markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-10000-2023-3-macro-headwinds-interest-rates-2022-2%3famp]https://www.[Suspicious link removed]s/markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-10000-2023-3-macro-headwinds-interest-rates-2022-2%3famp

[jackg]

$10k would be a fairly round number for us to stop at though so we probably wouldn't be able to stop there. Which might mean we could go below that or hold a bit above it - and it'll be particularly interesting if we go below imo (especially if it stays there for a few days).

There's probably enough people trying to guess the bottom though and only one will be right, we're nowehere near the $14k low that was prophesised to be the bottom of the last drop too.

[Welsh]

While I ain't going to dispute that it would likely have an effect, and a big one. the FED aren't worldwide, and only regulate within the United States, Bitcoin is a global currency. The real concern would be if other countries follow suit in a relatively short time, that's when you'll see a real panic. This figure of 10k is just being plucked out of the air, rather than having solid reasoning behind it. Will we see a drop? Probably. However, predicting that accurately isn't going to be an easy job. Although, I will say that I think it's coming at a good time, pretty much when we're already down, they're going to give us another kick, but also the interest in Bitcoin right now isn't that big due to people being a little more concerned about other things happening in the world, like the war, and the rising living costs. So, this news might not have as big of an impact that we would like to think it would.

I'm not too bothered of Bitcoin dropping a bit more, and anyone that's in it for the medium or long term shouldn't be either. Just see it as a opportunity to gather a bit more Bitcoin.

[Ever-young]

Fed will always try all they think is right fro them to buy back the trust of the people by increasing interest rate on savings and also introducing new monitory policy which they think will bring back investors. They have always been doing that but it doesn't change anything to people who believe in btc. Btc might go below 16k$ but me I don't see 10k below anytime in 2023 and even if it do happen btc bad days don't last forever. I see nothing to worry about in that article, lot's of people have predicted the fall to go below 12k$ this year but I have not even seen 14k$.

[piebeyb]

somehow I always think $10k is an unattractive price to touch, I know maybe the effect of all of this has an impact on the bitcoin price but I'm sure it won't hit the $10k price, trust me it won't touch it

[Anguwa]

Bitcoin could plummet 76% from current levels to $10,000 by 2023 as the cryptocurrency faces three macro headwinds that have an influence on its price, according to a note from Stifel's Barry Bannister.

Many people have different opinions about Bitcoin's price, but the majority of people do not believe that Bitcoin will fall to the $10,000 range. It may fall below the $20k mark, but it will almost certainly not fall below $10k. Since the beginning of the year 2022, Bitcoin's price has fluctuated around the $20-$25k range, and now the year is coming to an end and Bitcoin has not risen; perhaps it will fall below $20k, but I am confident it will not fall below $10k.

[romero121]

The interest rate hike is the major factor that decides to what extent the downwards movement continues. Whenever the announcement is done the market used to decline and the same gets used by Whale holders. One such downturn made the price touch $17k. This time this could go even further. Request you to stay happy without iu

People are sure about a big bearish move, but even at such drops people won't make use of it as an opportunity. For god's sake majority will continue to watch the price movements and take necessary action.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Planned tightening by the Federal Reserve in the form of interest rate hikes and a reduction in its balance sheet could have a negative impact on the price of bitcoin, according to Bannister.

Interest rate hike is supposed to be a catalyst through which bitcoin will gain much more value and not the other way round.

And besides, I think Bitcoin dropping to $10,000(if this is at all possible) is a giveaway opportunity for people to buy more at a cheaper rate,
1 bitcoin is also 1 bitcoin when we remove the dollar value it's measured by, I am patiently waiting for that time in the future when we will not have to compare measure bitcoin in dollars anymore.

[fzkto]

These are all assumptions that the media is telling us about. In reality, absolutely no one knows what can happen to bitcoin even in a week, because sometimes the price depends on just one tweet. I wouldn't trust all kinds of analysts who have little idea about the whole bitcoin infrastructure, at a price of 10k the whole mining could die. I don't know what the price will be, but I do know that 10k is fantastic, although I don't rule out the short-term nature of such a price, which will be a gift for all of us.

[CryptoHeadlineNews]

Bitcoin could plummet 76% from current levels to $10,000 by 2023 as the cryptocurrency faces three macro headwinds that have an influence on its price,

It's actually been two years now since Bitcoin left the $10k zone (June 2020) and from the look of things I strongly don't doubt the prediction that Bitcoin might crosses the $10k benchmark, but if it does then that might trigger another massive bull run, of which the price may passes the previous "All Time High".

[Falconer]

$10k would be a fairly round number for us to stop at though so we probably wouldn't be able to stop there. Which might mean we could go below that or hold a bit above it - and it'll be particularly interesting if we go below imo (especially if it stays there for a few days).

I know, you definitely want to buy as much bitcoin as you can, right? 
There's always a chance under $10k because the Fed's policies are always changing. But I don't think we're going to hit $10K and I'm more confident about $13K or more because the purchasing power at the time of the price drop is expected to be huge. People are waiting for the dip to buy, so it's hard to expect it won't bounce quickly on a dip.

[coolcoinz]

Why 10k? That would have to completely nullify what chart analysts were tracing for the last 10 years. No tech adoption curve, no regression curves, no 200 week ma lows, no lengthening cycles, and so on. In 2023 we'll be just a few months before the next halving and you expect the price to literally halve as well?

I don't feel like the US FED can keep tightening for another year. If they do they will crash the stock market and start a recession, which means unemployment and bankruptcies and this means less taxes paid. They can't do it.

[hatshepsut93]

There's a good amount of short-term correlation between Bitcoin and mainstream economy, but it's not strong enough to cause a 50% drop. The last time when something like that happened was when the initial COVID-19 restrictions were announced and Bitcoin suffered a 50% crash in almost a day. This Fed announcement won't have such effect, as it is more predictable and not as dramatic for the economy. Also, when that covid-related crash happened, Bitcoin very quickly recovered and a year later it entered a huge bull run. So don't think that a crash is the end of the world.

[noormcs5]

$10k would be a fairly round number for us to stop at though so we probably wouldn't be able to stop there. Which might mean we could go below that or hold a bit above it - and it'll be particularly interesting if we go below imo (especially if it stays there for a few days).

There's probably enough people trying to guess the bottom though and only one will be right, we're nowehere near the $14k low that was prophesised to be the bottom of the last drop too.

When bitcoin was 3000-4000$ during the early covid days, i heard voices saying that bitcoin will reach 1000$ etc but that never happened. Similarly, we are again seeing people thinking bitcoin to reach below 10K, which may never happen. If you want to invest in bitcoin, do not wait for your bids near 10K and left out. Better to buy some now and buy more in case it reaches those low values.
By the way, i don't think fed news can make people sell all of their bitcoin, I really don't think it will happen.

[Darker45]

And why should we give weight to Bannister's thoughts? But, be that as it may, $10,000 as the bottom is not that bad. At least it provides another round of opportunities to those who wish to buy Bitcoin at a much lower entry point.

However, while the Fed is trying to strengthen the USD, many of the world's currencies are falling in value quite fast. Therefore, Bitcoin is still a good currency or asset of refuge. In Argentina, for example, many would still choose Bitcoin over their fiat despite the bear market. With Bitcoin losing so much for the last months, it is still the less risky choice.

[yhiaali3]

Not to this extent, yes, there are many indications that Bitcoin will continue to decline, but I doubt that it will reach the 10K level, but in any case, no one can predict the future accurately. The expected scenario for me is that Bitcoin will continue to decline until November, then we will see a good start until the end of the year So I am not worried about bitcoin falling.

[kamvreto]

Not to this extent, yes, there are many indications that Bitcoin will continue to decline, but I doubt that it will reach the 10K level, but in any case, no one can predict the future accurately. The expected scenario for me is that Bitcoin will continue to decline until November, then we will see a good start until the end of the year So I am not worried about bitcoin falling.

anything can happen, even if we say it will be under $10k in a few months it is still very possible. The market situation is indeed not good because many FUDs are being spread to disrupt the stability of bitcoin. Before hitting the $10k price bitcoin must also break through the $17k barrier which is the closest wall to reach a lower drop. indeed there is nothing to worry about if we are ready, that is, ready to buy at the lowest price with the spare money we have and ready to go up and sell at the new ATH. a bear market is certain, but a bull market is also certain and will come soon if we can be patient and can manage the strategy well.

[pooya87]

from Stifel's Barry Bannister.

Who is that and why should I care about what he says?

equity risk premium of the S&P 500 that have influence over the price of bitcoin.

It has no influence over bitcoin but it is sad to see people still think that over the past year or two and they actually panic sell bitcoin because of this idiotic thing too!

Planned tightening by the Federal Reserve in the form of interest rate hikes and a reduction in its balance sheet could have a negative impact on the price of bitcoin, according to Bannister.

That won't have any effects on bitcoin.
The only thing in US that is going to seriously affect bitcoin is the recession. If more bitcoiners in US have to choose between going hungry and HODLing bitcoin we can see more sales leading to more drops. Otherwise what the FED does is not affecting bitcoin.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Planned tightening by the Federal Reserve in the form of interest rate hikes and a reduction in its balance sheet could have a negative impact on the price of bitcoin, according to Bannister.

That won't have any effects on bitcoin.
The only thing in US that is going to seriously affect bitcoin is the recession. If more bitcoiners in US have to choose between going hungry and HODLing bitcoin we can see more sales leading to more drops. Otherwise what the FED does is not affecting bitcoin.

It's funny you should say that because it does have an effect. The recession is largely caused by monetary policy to combat inflation. What the Fed and other central banks are doing now is reducing the money available. With less money available, people have less money in general, and with less money in general, if they have to choose between spending less money to invest or buying bitcoin, and meeting their basic needs, they choose the latter. In more serious cases of needing money, people sell what they have of value, such as bitcoin, gold, shares or whatever, to cover their needs, as you said.

So in reality the Fed's policy does affect the price of bitcoin because it is largely responsible for the recession.

[2stout]

Bitcoin dropping to $10,000 by 2023 is possibly but I wouldn't bet on it, too much support seems in place for it to go this low.  Sounds like more FUD by institutions to increase their holdings by shaking down and out weak hands and panic sellers.