Betting Strategies & Betting Psychology

[sportbettor]

You can find the extensive lists of Betting Strategies & Betting Psychology here: https://sportstatist.com/betting-strategies/

As you know, some players prefer to bet following certain betting strategies. At the same time, some players use their own betting strategies, and some do not even know about their existence, or do not believe in their effectiveness. In short, this topic is intended to discuss betting strategies and the psychology of betting as well...

[Oshosondy]

Sorry to say this that if I should read that book (the articles on the link) that is included in the OP before I should start to bet, that means I will never bet in my life time. I think I do not have to be like I am going on an educational journey like schooling before betting.

But I will like to know about expected value. I checked this while I clicked on the link: How much should you risk per bet?

To win in sports betting you need a betting strategy with a positive expected value, i.e. an estimation of your average winnings per bet. But how much capital should you risk per bet to achieve maximum profits? For this, you need to understand the concept of utility. Read on to find out all about it.

Expected value, a concept first explored by French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat in the 17th century when trying to solve the problem of a game of points, shows us how much we can expect to win, on average, from a bet. It doesn’t, however, have very much to say about how much capital a bettor should risk on their bet. Here is where expected utility comes into play.

I have preferred to just use 5% or less of my weekly income on gambling, this has been helping me, but this is new to me and I do not really understand what expected value really is. Can you illustrate it?

Let us take example from Club A and Club B.
If the odd for club A to win is 1.8
While the odd for club B to win is 2.4
If odd for draw is 3.5
How is the the expected value calculated using EV = Po - 1? To know if it is positive or negative.

[Wakate]

Sorry to say this that if I should read that book (the articles on the link) that is included in the OP before I should start to bet, that means I will never bet in my life time. I think I do not have to be like I am going on an educational journey like schooling before betting.

But I will like to know about expected value. I checked this while I clicked on the link: How much should you risk per bet?

To win in sports betting you need a betting strategy with a positive expected value, i.e. an estimation of your average winnings per bet. But how much capital should you risk per bet to achieve maximum profits? For this, you need to understand the concept of utility. Read on to find out all about it.

Expected value, a concept first explored by French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat in the 17th century when trying to solve the problem of a game of points, shows us how much we can expect to win, on average, from a bet. It doesn’t, however, have very much to say about how much capital a bettor should risk on their bet. Here is where expected utility comes into play.

I think we should able to manage our risks when it comes to gambling rather than reading multiple online articles on gambling psychology and strategies to use which can drastically reduce the way we gamble to zero. Gambling is more of risk than what we are looking to make from it which I think we should be able to handle ourselves.

Even without using a betting strategy especially in sport betting, we can sti make good profits and earn more than those than are relying on a particular strategy to gamble and make winnings. I do prefer betting in a way that suit my interest than forcing myself to dance to a particular strategy that may choke my earnings later.

[Saint-loup]

Sorry to say this that if I should read that book (the articles on the link) that is included in the OP before I should start to bet, that means I will never bet in my life time. I think I do not have to be like I am going on an educational journey like schooling before betting.

But I will like to know about expected value. I checked this while I clicked on the link: How much should you risk per bet?

To win in sports betting you need a betting strategy with a positive expected value, i.e. an estimation of your average winnings per bet. But how much capital should you risk per bet to achieve maximum profits? For this, you need to understand the concept of utility. Read on to find out all about it.

Expected value, a concept first explored by French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat in the 17th century when trying to solve the problem of a game of points, shows us how much we can expect to win, on average, from a bet. It doesn’t, however, have very much to say about how much capital a bettor should risk on their bet. Here is where expected utility comes into play.

I have preferred to just use 5% or less of my weekly income on gambling, this has been helping me, but this is new to me and I do not really understand what expected value really is. Can you illustrate it?

Let us take example from Club A and Club B.
If the odd for club A to win is 1.8
While the odd for club B to win is 2.4
If odd for draw is 3.5
How is the the expected value calculated using EV = Po - 1? To know if it is positive or negative.

Basically the expected value, is the average value you can expect from a game or a bet.
To compute it from a bet you need to know the real likelihood of the outcome to happen.
If you are likely to win 1$ half time and lose 1$ the other half you will get 50 times $1 and 50 times - $1 if you repeat the event 100 times. The average winning value will be then 1+1+1...(50 times)+(-1)+(-1)+(-1)...(50 other times) divided by 100
That is to say ( 50 x 1 + 50 x -1 ) / 100 = 0

Here with a 1$ bet on a Club A victory @1.8 we would be expected to win $0.8 and to lose $-1 an unknown number of times if we were able to repeat the match in the same conditions 100 times.
If we think this number of Club A victories would be 60 for 100 matches against Club B, that is to say if the real likelihood of their victory is 60% then we will get
EV = 0.8 x P(Avictory) - 1 x P(Anovictory) = 0.8 x P(Avictory) - 1 x (1-P(Avictory)) = 0.8 x 0.6 - 1 x 0.4 = 0.08

Now if we want to include the expense of the stake.
We can consider we will lose it each time (100%), get it back with the winnings($1.8) 60% of times and not receiving anything($0) 40% of times, then we will get
EV = 1.8 x 0.6 + 0 x 0.4 - 1 x 1 = 1.8 x 0.6 - 1 = 0.08

So we can conclude that EV of one bet is its european odds (1.8) multiplied by its real likelihood to happen minus the stake ie 1 if we compute it for a one dollar bet.

[Oshosondy]

I think we should able to manage our risks when it comes to gambling rather than reading multiple online articles on gambling psychology and strategies to use which can drastically reduce the way we gamble to zero. Gambling is more of risk than what we are looking to make from it which I think we should be able to handle ourselves.

You are definitely right about this.

Even without using a betting strategy especially in sport betting, we can sti make good profits and earn more than those than are relying on a particular strategy to gamble and make winnings. I do prefer betting in a way that suit my interest than forcing myself to dance to a particular strategy that may choke my earnings later.

Assuming I am collecting $500 weekly, and I use just $10 (2% of the weekly income) to gamble weekly. If I lose the $10, would I think about it? I can not think about it and I can not be depressed at all. Gambling is risky, the best approach by gamblers is to know that gambling is risky, they should just take it that way. Using little amount of money that would not harm our life is better. I too win than lose when I bet appropriately and not going betond my capability in term of money to bet with.

Thanks. I appreciate your calculation. But if I should be sincere, is this necessary for a gambler? I think using the amount of money you can afford to lose is enough. Or is it not? Rather than to be making a calculation that most gamblers are not using at all (not you, I mean the article).

[Saint-loup]

Thanks. I appreciate your calculation. But if I should be sincere, is this necessary for a gambler? I think using the amount of money you can afford to lose is enough. Or is it not? Rather than to be making a calculation that most gamblers are not using at all (not you, I mean the article).

Yes I agree with you, I don't think many people are doing those calculations because it's not possible to correctly guess the real likelihood of a match outcome, unlike gambling games like roulette or dice for example where it's fixed and known.
But it's still important to always evaluate its order of magnitude I think, even unconsciously.
If you have a @1.01 odds while you think the team has only 50% chances to win, it's not a good deal. A good deal is an odds above the inverse of the real likelihood(or your own evaluation of it actually). That is to say above (50%)^-1 = 1 / 0.50 = 2.00 here.

[swogerino]

I think that despite sport betting involving also skills beside luck there is still luck there,one example is the number of times the favorite team may not win and may hit the bar once or twice during the game,that is called bad luck and luck is absolutely the king in every single way of betting being it sport betting,slot machines or poker games.

The title of this thread says it greatly,Betting Psychology,meaning that those numbers are only there to make us feel good when we are placing the bet and also during the time that we are waiting for the outcome of a soccer match we have high hopes that the bet is going to be won by us because of those numbers.

[Cryptmuster]

I think we should able to manage our risks when it comes to gambling rather than reading multiple online articles on gambling psychology and strategies to use which can drastically reduce the way we gamble to zero. Gambling is more of risk than what we are looking to make from it which I think we should be able to handle ourselves.

Even without using a betting strategy especially in sport betting, we can sti make good profits and earn more than those than are relying on a particular strategy to gamble and make winnings. I do prefer betting in a way that suit my interest than forcing myself to dance to a particular strategy that may choke my earnings later.

When a losing streak sets in, no strategy will help, no one is safe from this. If you play consistently for a long period of time, then everyone will have a losing streak at a distance, it is during this period that there will be the most nerves and loss of money, it is during this period that it would be worth stopping, but the desire to win will force you to play further. I've never been able to make money this way.

[Rruchi man]

You can find the extensive lists of Betting Strategies & Betting Psychology here

I was really surprised to find such a very detailed list! It can a good resource for any professional bettor or someone who has decided to take betting very seriously to have as a reference material for any particular strategy they intend to check out. But for others, It can become an exhausting read if your read without a motive and no intention to learn anything in particular. Understanding strategies in betting can increase your chances of winning, but it doesn't ensure victory still completely.

[yahoo62278]

Most of the "strategies" you read about are basically trying to make you a smarter gambler and make more calculated bets, but personally I like to risk a small amount of money to win a large amount. Parlay betting which is extremely risky as you have to win every game you pick, but if you are correct you can turn a small amount(like 2$) into $1000+.

If you make 50 parlays over the course of a year with 50:1 odds and a $2 bet, you only have to hit 1 to be in profit.

[Wexnident]

There's a LOT of stuff there I must say, I'd probably suggest going there if you only have a specific issue or strategy in mind you want to check. Might even be better if OP's recommendation had a summarization for newbies and then specific articles for the other stuff.

I think most people don't really use strategies or don't mind them is because it only makes their betting efficient, but not effective (If I used those terms correctly). It's not a guaranteed way of profiting, like a 100% win rate for example, but rather if you use strategies and whatnot, you can potentially out win your losses in the long term.

[Daltonik]

Yes, indeed, luck is the most important factor in gambling and here you can use absolutely any strategy or, in fact, acting relying on your gut or intuition, but still thank you for the link to the OP strategy book.

[Gozie51]

You can find the extensive lists of Betting Strategies & Betting Psychology here

I was really surprised to find such a very detailed list! It can a good resource for any professional bettor or someone who has decided to take betting very seriously to have as a reference material for any particular strategy they intend to check out. But for others, It can become an exhausting read if your read without a motive and no intention to learn anything in particular.

The material is really encompassing like you said and in fact it is capable of confusing a bettor on the strategy he has been using especially the winning strategy. It is the guide for bettor who has been finding it difficult to be lucky in winning

Understanding strategies in betting can increase your chances of winning, but it doesn't ensure victory still completely.

I use to know confidence as one of the good factor to get you convinced to place a bet but I read somewhere in the link that confidence can make the bettor change emotion to the bet. Quite a large material to learn from.

[dothebeats]

This might be helpful if I am a college undergrad looking to create a thesis for social studies, but apparently gamblers won't read that long of an article/paper before they make their bet. It's helpful that it's there whenever someone will need it for their researches and whatnot but as a gambler, we want something direct and straight to the point.

I think we should able to manage our risks when it comes to gambling rather than reading multiple online articles on gambling psychology and strategies to use which can drastically reduce the way we gamble to zero. Gambling is more of risk than what we are looking to make from it which I think we should be able to handle ourselves.

Even without using a betting strategy especially in sport betting, we can sti make good profits and earn more than those than are relying on a particular strategy to gamble and make winnings. I do prefer betting in a way that suit my interest than forcing myself to dance to a particular strategy that may choke my earnings later.

When a losing streak sets in, no strategy will help, no one is safe from this. If you play consistently for a long period of time, then everyone will have a losing streak at a distance, it is during this period that there will be the most nerves and loss of money, it is during this period that it would be worth stopping, but the desire to win will force you to play further. I've never been able to make money this way.

True. When a lose streak sets in, that's when you have to pray to the gods that you'll get it cut, or you just have to stop and call it a day. No strategy is applicable on a lose streak on luck-based games, and the best one can do on those situations is just walk away.

[aioc]

I just notice that OP is spamming the link that he posted here on all the gambling discussion threads even on the discussion that has nothing to do with his link and he's been doing this for the last two years based on his trust rating and posts history, I will not be surprised if he gets ban or gets an additional tag, why not just wear a signature created for his websites to avoid being flagged as spammers he will only spend $30 for a signature.

[bittraffic]

I just notice that OP is spamming the link that he posted here on all the gambling discussion threads even on the discussion that has nothing to do with his link and he's been doing this for the last two years based on his trust rating and posts history, I will not be surprised if he gets ban or gets an additional tag, why not just wear a signature created for his websites to avoid being flagged as spammers he will only spend $30 for a signature.

He'd been doing that for a while already in every thread he created, it's why he was tagged by TwitchySeal. Obviously, he had his aff link on those web pages he posted. He created several websites to spread it. I don't think this kind of method still works since most internet users today already know this sort of spam.

Anyway, with a series of losses experienced by betting on casino games, a gambler would realize soon it's not worth using the strategies because no matter how good the strategy is, it still depends on luck such as having good cards.

[YOSHIE]

You can find the extensive lists of Betting Strategies & Betting Psychology here: https://sportstatist.com/betting-strategies/

Many think that strategies in sports betting can produce and can be applied in an integrated manner, for me there are many strategies and choices that can be made in soccer betting.
For example:
• Optimal strategy, single soccer betting strategy and Handicap betting strategy.
Everyone who has ever bet on soccer knows about that strategy, but what I often use is optimal and handicap, but if I look at the website you show above there are points that can be taken.

Talking about the psychology of soccer betting, it is necessary to pay attention to what else online betting, to achieve good results in soccer gambling, usually someone has the ability and understands psychology carefully, I mean the personality of the bettors themselves, especially in soccer predictions, team predictions, focus and also regularly following the team we want to bet on.
I think the characteristics of psychological emotions, every soccer betting bettor must be able to control it well, otherwise Greed, excitement and fear can be dangerous for themselves, especially in soccer betting.

[AmoreJaz]

I just notice that OP is spamming the link that he posted here on all the gambling discussion threads even on the discussion that has nothing to do with his link and he's been doing this for the last two years based on his trust rating and posts history, I will not be surprised if he gets ban or gets an additional tag, why not just wear a signature created for his websites to avoid being flagged as spammers he will only spend $30 for a signature.

it is fine if he will only post the link in one thread only in the related board. but if he will post the same link in several threads, then something is wrong with this picture. but checking the link , that's a very long list. maybe, some gamblers will find it helpful one way or another. but did they really write those articles originally as i couldn't find any reference at the bottom of each article?

[Doell]

Interesting article, but I already have my own strategy, maybe it's more or less the same as some of the notes on your link @OP. If I read all entirety of the article it possibility also take a long time to understand it, that's a lot. Besides that, I also prefer parlay bets same as yahoo62278, I also looking for the sensation of high wins with small bets, although at the beginning of this season I haven't had any success in winning any bets, but I enjoy it because it's small amount.

[Beparanf]

Most of the "strategies" you read about are basically trying to make you a smarter gambler and make more calculated bets, but personally I like to risk a small amount of money to win a large amount. Parlay betting which is extremely risky as you have to win every game you pick, but if you are correct you can turn a small amount(like 2$) into $1000+.

If you make 50 parlays over the course of a year with 50:1 odds and a $2 bet, you only have to hit 1 to be in profit.

This is true, A high risk high reward bet is less hassle and eliminates a lot of human error in the process compared when playing the long game with calculated risk. Gambling is still base on probability which means you are just decreasing the chance of losing by managing your risk when you use different strategies but it doesn’t change the fact that you are still gambling with a chance of losing the moment you place a bet.

On your sample was you are betting a small amount for a chance of winning big to save time on going through the hard process of winning bits by bits on a small odds.