🏇 Horse Racing (UK & Ireland mainly) odds and predictions 🏇

[stompix]

Sprinter Sacre and Frankel - if you don't know these horses....the are other topics for signature quotas

This topic is about racing and gambling, so I would love to see posting people who know about gambling and how to do, it although I would love also discussions about why a horse is a favorite in this race, ground, trainer jockey combinations,  beating of a horse who was a previous winner, weight advantage. I will only focus on Uk and Irish racing, maybe throw in a few speculations about other Grade 1 races in Australia, US or Japan but I will stick to what I can see live and not stay till 5 am to watch a race.

So please no such thing as New London is a favorite, I'm sure he won because he won in the past.  

Unfortunately, I don't have time anymore to play on the exchange which is where the real money is being made but tips are always welcomed.
Most odds will be taken from betfair or paddypower.
You can watch replays for free :

https://www.racingtv.com/videos/horse_racing_replays
https://www.attheraces.com/replays

Live is available on Betfair on the betting race, I don't know any legit free streaming service that covers all the races as I have the premium sports package but if anyone knows please post it. For other internet stream services, there is a ton of them but so full of ads and crap I will not recommend any to date.

[1715312612]

1715312612

[1715312612]

1715312612

[1715312612]

1715312612

[1715312612]

1715312612

[1715312612]

1715312612

[1715312612]

1715312612

[stompix]

Straight to the point, with the disclaimer that most of the times when I give advice in betting it's a disaster, and the only reason why I'm on a positive balance is constant betting on jockey trainer combinations and a lot, I mean a LOT of luck in the last moments of a race. 

This Sunday, three races I'm eager to see

Cazoo St Leger Stakes
Everyone is going nuts for New London, 4/5, I guess yeah, the highest rating, proved himself twice in a row quite impressive but at those odds, it's no fun so I will go with an each way on Haskoy, unbeaten filly, probably still learning but has shown it knows how to finish a race, look entertaining enough for a bet.
Last race of Haskoy (she's near the rail)
https://www.racingtv.com/videos/watch/horse_racing_replays/405877-british-ebf-sir-henry-cecil-galtres-stakes-listed-1

Coral Doncaster Cup Stakes
This is Trueshan race to lose, he did break his record on a different ground but is still an obvious favorite, odds are ridiculous so better focus on the second place, Get Shirty and Coltrane, maybe with the latter coming up on top.

Coral Flying Childers Stakes
Two favorites with different styles of racing, The Platinum Queen 11/8 who likes to race from the front, and Trillium 2/1 who came  last to first twice in row, so completely going nuts, go for a trifecta with Trillium, The Platinum Queen and Crispy Cat. Why Crispy Cat? Because I like her name!  Also placing a bet on the first two, with obvious names.
Trillium last race, got to love how it did it
https://www.racingtv.com/results/uk/402349-goodwood/27-Jul-2022/1500
The Platinum Queen, second last race, just as impressive
https://www.racingtv.com/results/uk/402351-goodwood/27-Jul-2022/1645

Coral Champagne Stakes
Two 10/11 and 15/8 favorites and a three horse race, two horses unbeaten in the last two races, and the third was beaten less than a length by the favorite so this might be quite entertaining but I'm not finding anything to bet here to date.

Not looked at Irish Leger Stakes yet in detail but I saw something like 5 6/4 and lower favorites so, risks without much return..

[Saint-loup]

AFAIK Ireland is using the parimutuel betting system(aka tote betting) but what about UK precisely? Bets are only made through bookmakers at fixed odds or we can also bet against other bettors in a pool? Where can we find the current odds of the pool of Irish bets and of UK ones if it exists there please?

[stompix]

AFAIK Ireland is using the parimutuel betting system(aka tote betting) but what about UK precisely?
 Bets are only made through bookmakers at fixed odds or we can also bet against other bettors in a pool?

The thing that matters is on which site you bet, I use betfair as bet365 is really messy when it comes to amended results, if your horse is declared a winner after the race you still lose, if it's promoted to winner yous till lose.
So betfair uses fractional fixed-odds, you put your bet at a fixed odds and that's it, you can bet fixed odds for UK , Ireland or US.

I kind of dislike parimutuel sites because at least in my experience it's heavily manipulated, I saw pools raising 10x times in a matter of seconds and then not moving a penny, kind of fishy, probably from bookmaker to bookmaker.

Where can we find the current odds of the pool of Irish bets and of UK ones if it exists there please?

I use oddschecker.com for the fixed odds, for tote betting you can go to tote.co.uk which covers again both Ire and UK races.

Two interesting races at Leopardstown today, but I'm sitting those out, it's again O'Brien fielding more favorites and as usual there is a mess of it, I've learned the hard way not to bet on or against his horses that have who few races, and in the Champion Stakes is Vadeni race to lose, maybe an 1-2 with Luxembourg for fun.

[Saint-loup]

I'm not a very strong bettor but currently I'm mainly betting on Sportsbet, they are covering a quite large amount of races across the world. Nitrobetting is also offering horse races bets but I didn't try them there, yet.
I often see discrepancies between odds on sportsbooks and odds from the parimutuel pool of my country (https://www.pmu.fr/turf/) So there are certainly opportunities of interesting arbitrages I guess. Which odds are the more accurate and reliable on average from what you know? Odds from bookmakers or odds from national parimutuel pools?

[stompix]

So there are certainly opportunities of interesting arbitrages I guess. Which odds are the more accurate and reliable on average from what you know? Odds from bookmakers or odds from national parimutuel pools?

Yeah, arbitrage is what's making the big money right now, especially if you have time to look for those bets two-three days in advance, but it's really time-consuming and there is little room for error, I simply can't do it anymore. As for the fixed odds I go with the bookmakers, the same arbitrage and high volume exchange are making the differences barely noticeable, and if you want to bet on multiple things you still end with your bookie.

Back to racing, the update from yesterday

I'm sitting those out, it's again O'Brien fielding more favorites and as usual there is a mess of it, I've learned the hard way not to bet on or against his horses that have who few races, and in the Champion Stakes is Vadeni race to lose, maybe an 1-2 with Luxembourg for fun.

As usual, things went messy, Vadeni flopped, nothing in the late race from him, finishing just 3rd and the other favorite later, Homeless Songs, was just a shadow of a horse, not able to pick up at all. Luckily Luxembourg won, so a place bet on it erased two other screwups.

Today races, I was busy so didn't pick a thing for the Irish Ledger, so:

Cazoo St Leger Stakes
Everyone is going nuts for New London, 4/5, I guess yeah, the highest rating, proved himself twice in a row quite impressive but at those odds, it's no fun so I will go with an each way on Haskoy,

Another favorite bites the dust:

1 Eldar Eldarov
2 Haskoy
3 New London
and Haskoy managed to get a place.

Coral Doncaster Cup Stakes
This is Trueshan race to lose, he did break his record on a different ground but is still an obvious favorite, odds are ridiculous so better focus on the second place, Get Shirty and Coltrane, maybe with the latter coming up on top.

And again the favorite flops and Coltrane beat him to a neck in the last furlong, glad that I went on a place with him.

Coral Flying Childers Stakes
Two favorites with different styles of racing, The Platinum Queen 11/8 who likes to race from the front, and Trillium 2/1 who came  last to first twice in a row, so completely going nuts, go for a trifecta with Trillium, The Platinum Queen and Crispy Cat. Why Crispy Cat? Because I like her name! Also placing a bet on the first two, with obvious names.

Trilliing race
https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Doncaster/11-September-2022/1335

This was one hell of a race and it was Trillium again pulling it out of the fire in last strides. I was so focused on the first two that after a few seconds I was all, where is Crispy Cat??? but he did it.
So got a tricast and a forecast right, and placed the bet while Trillium was sliding so that's a 23 odds.

In the Irish Ledger finally, a favorite delivered, Kyprios winning at 8/11f, but I've not put a penny on any races there. Four more tomorrow but probably I'll update this with Kempton alone since it's late evening and I have time for it.

[Saint-loup]

Thank you for commenting your bets with honesty including the losing ones, this is very interesting.
I don't know if you have already read this story about Bill Benter, this is one of the craziest story about gambling I've ever read. Bloomberg has even shot a video on it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4B0mGYZqElo

The story starts like that.

Veteran gamblers know you can’t beat the horses. There are too many variables and too many possible outcomes. Front-runners break a leg. Jockeys fall. Champion thoroughbreds decide, for no apparent reason, that they’re simply not in the mood. The American sportswriter Roger Kahn once called the sport “animated roulette.” Play for long enough, and failure isn’t just likely but inevitable—so the wisdom goes. “If you bet on horses, you will lose,” says Warwick Bartlett, who runs Global Betting & Gaming Consultants and has spent years studying the industry.
What if that wasn’t true?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

Even if it's a bit exaggerated IMO - my last bet is a winning one (Rajapour winner of Chantilly R7 @1.57 yesterday) for example. It shows how hard it could be to make good predictions on horse races I think.

[stompix]

Guess the self moderated tag scared the shit out of "gamblers" in this section.

Thank you for commenting your bets with honesty including the losing ones, this is very interesting.
I don't know if you have already read this story about Bill Benter, this is one of the craziest story about gambling I've ever read. Bloomberg has even shot a video on it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4B0mGYZqElo

The headline is a bit misleading, he didn't really crack or found a solution to guess the horse races results with 100% accuracy, for example, the famous bet in Hong Kong wasn't a single bet, he put down 51,000 bets, he had a great algorithm but essentially it was a thing about winning more than losing, it's basically getting better that bookmakers at assuming the odds for a horse.
It was indeed a really good one, but it wasn't about nailing down each race from one try.


I haven't had time to post aboout Kempton on Monday, I just went against favorites as I sometimes do when it's about class 4 and 5, but most of the returns were erased by the likes of Aurora Charm 85,000 filly or Picual that run like... in short a 15 cents return to the dollar.

Today it's too late for anything so I will take a look at Sundown tomorrow,

15:50
Most likely Sir Benedict will be the favorite and Gerkin will ease in the markets, so either a forecast like this or a placing for the latter

14:25
Two promising horses, two beaten favorites, Local Dynasty (11/8), Sir Laurence Graff (9/4), but it's gambling right, so Lucky Fifteen , trained by Becket, 200k, great pedigree, Hector Crouch manages to get placings with the trainer horses so let's see it.

15:00
No, I don't bet on this kind of race full of unraced 2yo

15:35
Straight gamble, tricast on Bayside Boy , Escobar , Sinjari and another one with the last two in a different order. Might put one on Sly Madam which is a winner at way lower levels to get a place, she is 25/1 for a win so maybe a 5-8 odds on placing?

16:10
I'll Be There will certainly go down from 4:1, but placing is not getting good returns and it's a bit fragile for a winner, so just put 1$ on it and watch the race.

16:40
This is one I will want to watch, Phantasy Mack on has all the advantages while Savrola is rated as a threat only on possibilities, I will go with that market in this order and watch for the odds tomorrow on distances especially if there is a bet against Moonis, it's a 1m 1f after all.

17:10
Meleri 10/1 is dropping in class, dropping in trip after running out of steam at 1m 4f, and running good enough at this distance. Another $1 for fun bet would be Rikona 5/1 followed home by Miss Bluebelle 9/2.

Heading to Yarmouth for a class 1 stakes my enthusiasm went down reading the profiles.
One of the favorites, Ville De Grace, has a history of refusing to race twice in 5 races so this could turn into a mess and void bests so, down with the full card.

Probably till Ayr and Newbury races on Friday/Sunday I will take a break.

[stompix]

Since we don't have that much interest in actual betting on horse racing I guess I will just bump it now and then when grade 1 races happen and forget about weekly races

That being said, Sandown was one of my newbie mistakes, when I look back I did the mistakes of a noob, not trying to find out the winner but searching for the bet and return I liked, totally opposite to the previous day and with the obvious consequences


Let's start counting loses

13:50 , total loss, both favorite and promising one, 4th and 6th
14:25 , Local Dynasty did win but at 11/10, Lucky Fifteen was not lucky
15:35 , Bayside Boy and Escobar did palce but Sinjari no, Sly Madam 5th no place
16:10 , as always the one I considered a lost bet from the start was a winning one, I'll Be There at 4/1
16:40 , Savrola was a non-runner, voided bets, good cause Phantasy Mac flopped
17:10 , Rikona 11th, Miss Bluebelle 7th, Meleri 5th , lol.

could have been way worse!

I'll update this same post with the races at Ayr as there is where the action is focused on the weekend.