How mentally prepared are you?

[savetheFORUM]

I think not borrowing money works for any thing or activity not just bitcoin.

We are in times of taking advantage of information, one cannot go with people as if you wanted to take them by the hand, today access to information is within reach alls.

Maybe 10 or more years ago this discourse with bitcoin was efficient, the discourse must be renewed.

There is no excuse not to have bitcoin, know what it means to hodl, sell or buy and have the basic knowledge of security.

For some, borrowing money is pain in the head but I know there are people here in btc who use that strategy to accumulate more coins, or if ever they need money. They can't just afford to sell their btc.

It might be easy now to look for information because we have cheap smartphones and faster internet but there are still people who are too lazy of doing it. They only use those resources for other things which are not really beneficial for them like playing online games and watching cat videos on the web. Not all people are into btc and they have reasons or excuses about that so don't just talk negatively about them if you don't know their story well.

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[Antonas1]

~ snip ~

~ and hopefully in 8 years from now I will manage to get my first Bitcoin to be able to have a more relaxed life.

I've thrown away that idea. In my mind, relaxing life with owning bitcoins is only a fantasy. Since the conditions of the world or country will always be updated, it's possible for a relaxed life ^{(like people want)} to turn into a bad one in a short time. In this case I choose to relax from now on, buy Bitcoin when I have the money, hold it, and convert to fiat when I need it. Simple.

[JayJuanGee]

I am not much of a fan of the expression 1 BTC = 1 BTC, even though I understand and I agree with the sentiment that involves attempting to consider various ways to think about your BTC investment in long term ways in order to create a variety of goals to help you to continue to stack sats whether your investment period is 4-10 years or longer, and in any event, sure there are needs to also consider whether or not the amount that you invested into BTC and/or that you continue to invest into BTC gains in value as compared to if it had been left in dollars - but at the same time, investing into bitcoin remains a kind of insurance system, too.. so it may not end up seeming to pay off in terms of dollars in the short to medium term, and even in the long term, it might have had been keeping value in dollars - even though it is quite doubtful that keeping value in dollars is actually going to pay off if you really consider the matter in terms of 4-10 years or longer investment time horizons.

It is important to make a period of investment in bitcoin, this will make people more mature and feel right when bitcoin finds its ATH again. For example 10 years ago, some people thought of bitcoin as an ordinary investment, but in fact bitcoin went to the moon in a certain year, then the use of bitcoin for people who thought like that obviously did not develop, until in the end they took part in the next period, even though at that time they began to open to bitcoin, today the assets they have are increasing and are much more leverage.
Maybe me and some people who think so have been left behind by some period when bitcoin started going to the moon.
And I don't think that the dollar can maintain its value in the long term, because when the dollar is converted in the form of purchases of goods, the dollar's value will also decrease and it will not be able to maintain its previous value.

Your way of saying this seems to come off a bit differently than mine, even it seems that we are coming to similar conclusions, at least in regards to bitcoin having had had a strong investment thesis and continuing to have a strong investment thesis.

When I read your above description, you seem to suggest some kind of fatalism, as if it was inevitable that bitcoin would succeed or even that it is inevitable that some day bitcoin is going to reach another ATH, and I am somewhat bothered by that kind of a framing even if you might end up being correct in terms of results.

I do believe that it is nearly inevitable that the dollar is guaranteed to go down in value because the underlying monetary philosophy and practice that underlies the dollar causes it to have an ongoing push down on its value - both in terms of the ongoing printing that dilutes its value but also the underlying system of seemingly perverted incentives that suggest that people have to be incentivized to continue to work because their saved dollar will be losing value sufficiently great that they will not have the same purchasing power in 10 years or longer.

When I got into bitcoin in late 2013 (which is going on 9 years now), I had continued to invest.. even during the long downward price moves of all of 2014 with the BTC price going down the whole year and also the BTC price staying down for almost the total of 2015 because I had considered bitcoin to have a good investment thesis and likelihood to do as good, if not better than my traditional investments (in stocks etc) that had largely ONLY performed on average around 6% per year for the previous 25-ish years... So I figured that if bitcoin at least performed on par to the the stocks, I would not be worse off by investing into bitcoin, so I put enough into bitcoin in order to attempt to account for the possibility that bitcoin may or may not perform equal to my historical stock investments while accepting that BTC could end up going to zero.... and at the same time, my idea that bitcoin could go to zero was off-set by the idea (that I could see from the historical charts) that bitcoin had chances to way out-perform my traditional investments.  So if I attempted to calculate both the possible upside and the possible downside, I felt that I was able to reach a valuation that allowed me to conclude that investing into bitcoin was at least as good as investing in traditional investments - so in that regard, I was able to justify to attempt to invest into bitcoin at an allocation that was proportional to the value of my stocks to bitcoin.. In the beginning, I did not know what my bitcoin investment comfort level was going to be or my allocation into bitcoin, but after about a year investing into bitcoin, I figured out that I wanted to put 10% of my then quasi-liquid total investment portfolio into bitcoin... So I figured my allocation to BTC amount based on a formula that I considered as comfortable to me in terms of my various individual factors.

If you consider the extent of the irresponsibility in the whole fiat system that involves the dollar as the strongest of the various fiats, but all of the fiats are considerably fucked in terms of their ongoing inabilities to hold value in terms of goods and services, and there is pretty damned close to a 100% guarantee that each of the fiats is going to depreciate in value, especially when looking out 4-10 years or longer - so in that regard, consider how much value you are going to put into BTC and how you are going to invest into BTC over the next 4-10 years or longer, and do you merely consider investing a lump sum at whatever price BTC is right now and waiting out the 4-10 years or longer or do you continuously inject value into bitcoin until you at least get to a decent percentage of your net worth into bitcoin?

It's simple, when today we save $1000/$5000, then the next 4-10 years the dollar will depreciate, maybe even buying a pack of cigarettes with that amount of money is no longer enough. Because some products will continue to increase in price, that's why fiat can't maintain value.
While bitcoin is speculative, it is still capable of maintaining value, and interestingly for bitcoin, in the next 4-10 years it is likely to reach the next ATH, thus the value of bitcoin will continue to increase, not decrease like fiat currency. Because talking about bitcoin, there is definitely a cycle in it, so the correction and recovery process will arrive at the next process.

Yes.  Overall the dollar is nearly guaranteed to lose value, and bitcoin had great chances to continue to increase in value - especially if we are looking 4-10 years or longer.
 

How much and how you get into bitcoin are personal decisions that are going to vary based on a variety of your personal circumstances - including but not limited to if you are brand new to bitcoin and/or brand new to building an investment portfolio or if you already have built an investment portfolio (whether or not it might currently include BTC contained therein).

This is a technical thing to learn, when is the right time to make a decision on investing in bitcoin, and I think a lot of people understand this condition.

Of course, people have to decide for themselves, yet to me, it seems that if someone does not have any bitcoin, then the best thing to do is to get started right away and without delay. Get some systems set up in order to figure out how to get bitcoin, and then once those systems are in place, then the next question might be a matter of how much.  Personally, I believe that no matter what the BTC price, it is not good to wait, especially if you do not have any bitcoin.

On the other hand, we know that bitcoin can be quite volatile, so it might not be as wise to invest into bitcoin while the price is going up exponentially, so that can be a much more difficult decision to figure out when and how to get into bitcoin when the price is going up....  I am not going to necessarily proclaim to know the answer regarding how to deal with BTC price going up and how to get in during those periods, and people (especially no coiners) have to decide for themselves how to get in with the combination of DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips.

One of the reasons that low prices should be greater justification to get into BTC, even though we likely realize that more people seem to get into bitcoin when the price going up rather when the price is going down or seemingly stagnant and low like it has been in the last 4-5 months or so.   .. maybe part of the reason that people have tendencies to do the opposite of what they should do by buying bitcoin (and getting in) when the prices are up and selling bitcoin (and getting out) when price are down.

We are still quite early to bitcoin, and there are a lot of people who are really smart when it comes to a variety of issues, including investing, but they may well be dumb as fuck when it comes to understanding what role bitcoin currently has and where bitcoin is likely going, which might even get into misconceptions in regards to knowing how to valuate bitcoin as compared to various traditional investment possibilities, and they might not even realize how fucked the whole system happens to be in terms of how a lot of assets have been corrupted by relatively long and ongoing corruption of various fiat systems that are having troubles keeping up their valuations because they are in a printing pickle (dilemma/trap) that they are having quite difficult times extracting themselves from the ongoing propping up of value and mis-valuing goods and services, assets and a variety of corruptions in the valuations - and it surely seems that bitcoin has a role to play in terms of hedging and giving options to those who can somewhat understand and appreciate its hedging, options and insurance providing features that happens to relate to its ongoing soundness that people might not be recognizing when solely valuating it in terms of how many dollars they might get from it.. and you better have some of those bitcoins when your millions of dollars can only buy you a cheap used car...

Many of the problems caused by the traditional investment system, fiat has experienced the worst system to date, where corruption, injustice and even guarantees of protected human rights no longer play a role. It's true that this is not completely borne by third parties, we are constantly given difficult choices, but there is no solution that can be presented by them (not anti), but the reality that we experience is like that.

Well, it seems that some of the difficult choices that we have will result in our attempting to figure out various less worse solutions, and I am not even conceding that we necessarily have to be pessimistic about having a bunch of bad choices, and we can look at them in the negative if we like because systems have trade-offs and the various systems do likely bring good outcomes even when some people disproportionally benefit from various systems, infrastructure and rules that are in place.

Accordingly, bitcoin seems to give everyone access to a possible way that s/he can benefit disproportionately as compared to other systems that had been available to him/her.
 

So that the role of the individual is a special method that must be developed, so that we have our own style and rules in living life, do not violate the law and do not forget the meaning of humanity are two things that are enough.

Well we have to find our balance and what we believe binds us to "law" - especially since not all laws are just, but we are likely going to be more grounded if we have some kind of a vision regarding what binds us and motivates us.  Without necessarily moralizing, there seems to be a certain morality that comes through something like bitcoin in terms of its seeming neutrality... a kind of neutrality that allows for the measurement of value that is not robbing from the people and disproportionately giving the robbed money - such as what the fiat system seems to inevitable gravitate towards those kinds of trade-offs, but bitcoin does not necessarily get rid of various traditional systems in which man is still making rules that are likely (or meant to be) compromises in society.

Bitcoin is also capable of maintaining insurance options, but it is independent, we control and we also hedge, if the dollar could only give us a small house, a used car and an ordinary life, then bitcoin could give us ten times more. It's just a matter of time and keep collecting bitcoins, then we'll go to the moon when the next ATH arrives.
Due to the fact that I experienced, very close to what you said, that means slowly and gradually accumulating bitcoins is the right step in preparing yourself for the moon.
Cheers

I think so... If you do not overdo your attempts at accumulating bitcoin, it is likely to have decently good chances of paying off for you, even if it might not make you fuck you status rich, it is still likely to make you better off to have had accumulated bitcoin as compared to if you had not, so long as you do not over do it.

~ snip ~

~ and hopefully in 8 years from now I will manage to get my first Bitcoin to be able to have a more relaxed life.

I've thrown away that idea. In my mind, relaxing life with owning bitcoins is only a fantasy. Since the conditions of the world or country will always be updated, it's possible for a relaxed life ^{(like people want)} to turn into a bad one in a short time. In this case I choose to relax from now on, buy Bitcoin when I have the money, hold it, and convert to fiat when I need it. Simple.

Part of the "secret" in regards to advantaging in the long term from bitcoin, is to continue to accumulate it, rather than spending it whenever it makes you feel good in the short-term.

So yeah, sure, you may feel that you have been living a happy and unstressed life, but you are not likely going to be able to benefits from what seems to be one of the world's greatest wealth transfer systems that have ever come into existence.

I know a lot of people like you who have lived a good life all of their lives, but then when they get to the time that they want to retire and/or to slow down their work, they are left in a state of continued need to hustle and to save and sure maybe that gives them meaning, but they would have likely have had been better off if they could have stopped or slowed down in working rather than being forced to work later in their life than they would have preferred.  

If you have a longer term view, then you accumulate BTC.. even if it is ONLY $10 per week, and don't dip into it.. and let it accumulate.. and figure out other ways to satisfy yourself with your normal income and continue to save and let your savings build up and when you get at or close to fuck you status with your savings and investment having had been built up, then it will likly be more apparent how to start to draw from such investment without depleting it.. which usually is around 4% per year... which is a whole other story.. first is to build and get to the status in which you might be able to start to draw from it in a kind of perpetual way... and you never even get to that status if you keep converting it to fiat in your purportedly "simple" way that never allows it to either build in value nor to compound upon itself.

[Antonas1]

I've thrown away that idea. In my mind, relaxing life with owning bitcoins is only a fantasy. Since the conditions of the world or country will always be updated, it's possible for a relaxed life ^{(like people want)} to turn into a bad one in a short time. In this case I choose to relax from now on, buy Bitcoin when I have the money, hold it, and convert to fiat when I need it. Simple.

~snip~
If you have a longer term view, then you accumulate BTC.. even if it is ONLY $10 per week, and don't dip into it.. and let it accumulate.. and figure out other ways to satisfy yourself with your normal income and continue to save and let your savings build up and when you get at or close to fuck you status with your savings and investment having had been built up, then it will likly be more apparent how to start to draw from such investment without depleting it.. which usually is around 4% per year... which is a whole other story.. first is to build and get to the status in which you might be able to start to draw from it in a kind of perpetual way... and you never even get to that status if you keep converting it to fiat in your purportedly "simple" way that never allows it to either build in value nor to compound upon itself.

Yeah, you are right. But what I mean by "when I need it" is I only convert to fiat when I don't have money. If I still can get the money from my job to pay my living costs, what do I need to change it for? I didn't think about short term trade.
Thanks for the input. I'll take it as a consideration.

[MarjorieZimmermanGinger]

Your way of saying this seems to come off a bit differently than mine, even it seems that we are coming to similar conclusions, at least in regards to bitcoin having had had a strong investment thesis and continuing to have a strong investment thesis.

When I read your above description, you seem to suggest some kind of fatalism, as if it was inevitable that bitcoin would succeed or even that it is inevitable that some day bitcoin is going to reach another ATH, and I am somewhat bothered by that kind of a framing even if you might end up being correct in terms of results.

I do believe that it is nearly inevitable that the dollar is guaranteed to go down in value because the underlying monetary philosophy and practice that underlies the dollar causes it to have an ongoing push down on its value - both in terms of the ongoing printing that dilutes its value but also the underlying system of seemingly perverted incentives that suggest that people have to be incentivized to continue to work because their saved dollar will be losing value sufficiently great that they will not have the same purchasing power in 10 years or longer.

When I got into bitcoin in late 2013 (which is going on 9 years now), I had continued to invest.. even during the long downward price moves of all of 2014 with the BTC price going down the whole year and also the BTC price staying down for almost the total of 2015 because I had considered bitcoin to have a good investment thesis and likelihood to do as good, if not better than my traditional investments (in stocks etc) that had largely ONLY performed on average around 6% per year for the previous 25-ish years... So I figured that if bitcoin at least performed on par to the the stocks, I would not be worse off by investing into bitcoin, so I put enough into bitcoin in order to attempt to account for the possibility that bitcoin may or may not perform equal to my historical stock investments while accepting that BTC could end up going to zero.... and at the same time, my idea that bitcoin could go to zero was off-set by the idea (that I could see from the historical charts) that bitcoin had chances to way out-perform my traditional investments.  So if I attempted to calculate both the possible upside and the possible downside, I felt that I was able to reach a valuation that allowed me to conclude that investing into bitcoin was at least as good as investing in traditional investments - so in that regard, I was able to justify to attempt to invest into bitcoin at an allocation that was proportional to the value of my stocks to bitcoin.. In the beginning, I did not know what my bitcoin investment comfort level was going to be or my allocation into bitcoin, but after about a year investing into bitcoin, I figured out that I wanted to put 10% of my then quasi-liquid total investment portfolio into bitcoin... So I figured my allocation to BTC amount based on a formula that I considered as comfortable to me in terms of my various individual factors.

The difference is unique and beautiful actually, because it will find some arguments with different patterns and ways of thinking, but in the end will find the same conclusions in each discussion. This is a way we take care of the ability to think and analyze problems.
Rest assured, this kind of thing will not bother anyone, because indeed bitcoin will do that, although we can't be sure of the exact time, you taught me about optimism in the previous discussion, even though it was not said directly, that means my statement will not bother you and others regarding this type of framing assumption, bitcoin will surely re-invent ATH, am I wrong on this?
and I know the answer, although sometimes you won't say it out loud, and it's inevitable when it comes to the next ATH for Bitcoin.
That's the reason the traditional model will not help one in changing the investment style, considering the times and technology have presented many ways to get out of monetary practice, the dollar will continue to experience a decline in value in the case of storage, that's why we must take part in Bitcoin, let alone relate to purchasing power in the next 10 years, the dollar is clearly unable to maintain value.

The bitcoin cycle is complicated to understand, that's why we often call it Fluctuation, but we have been taught how bitcoin goes through a long process, so no one thinks any level of investment is safe to make or vice versa, your experience may be longer than mine, that's why I'm sure you won't have any problems when I start framing about ATH. Because honestly bitcoin is too unique to understand, and too difficult if we don't try to speculate.
I quite agree about the amount of investment, we can set the level of comfort and the value of bitcoin that we must have, the allocation can be different, according to the authorized capital, previous profits and the level of additional purchases, if someone knows to buy at the right time, then that's when someone will feel confident in bitcoin.
I'm not very familiar with stocks, but in general it may be almost the same as the investment pattern, but I agree more with the use of bitcoin than stocks.

Yes.  Overall the dollar is nearly guaranteed to lose value, and bitcoin had great chances to continue to increase in value - especially if we are looking 4-10 years or longer.

This is what drives me to continue to increase my investment in bitcoin, the dollar will never be able to maintain its value, while bitcoin in the next 4-10 years will continue to show its existence, especially in terms of utilizing investment and generating maximum profits.

Of course, people have to decide for themselves, yet to me, it seems that if someone does not have any bitcoin, then the best thing to do is to get started right away and without delay. Get some systems set up in order to figure out how to get bitcoin, and then once those systems are in place, then the next question might be a matter of how much.  Personally, I believe that no matter what the BTC price, it is not good to wait, especially if you do not have any bitcoin.

On the other hand, we know that bitcoin can be quite volatile, so it might not be as wise to invest into bitcoin while the price is going up exponentially, so that can be a much more difficult decision to figure out when and how to get into bitcoin when the price is going up....  I am not going to necessarily proclaim to know the answer regarding how to deal with BTC price going up and how to get in during those periods, and people (especially no coiners) have to decide for themselves how to get in with the combination of DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips.

One of the reasons that low prices should be greater justification to get into BTC, even though we likely realize that more people seem to get into bitcoin when the price going up rather when the price is going down or seemingly stagnant and low like it has been in the last 4-5 months or so.   .. maybe part of the reason that people have tendencies to do the opposite of what they should do by buying bitcoin (and getting in) when the prices are up and selling bitcoin (and getting out) when price are down.

It's better to collect bitcoins, than to convince others to start. I mean people will understand that bitcoin is growing and improving year by year, if they start to try and stop spreading negative things about bitcoin, this is especially for people who don't believe in bitcoin.
As for people who have started receiving bitcoins, they must have made an investment, especially when bitcoin is worth buying at a price that is not too high, so the use of bitcoin investment will proceed according to a gradual purchase (scheme).
This is directly related to how to enter the market, generally everyone will take part when bitcoin starts to fall. Fluctuations always make people panic, especially if they take the wrong step when buying, then that's when they panic and take inappropriate action, and it is because of this condition that people say bitcoin is a scam and cannot maintain the value of investment (those who don't understand investment) .
It is very easy to see the pattern of people buying bitcoins in large quantities and buying in small quantities, most of these two people buy more often when the price goes down, although there are also those who buy when the price goes up, because of the use of additional purchases, sometimes it takes the right time to enter market.
However, as you said, that method, pattern and incremental buying depends on each individual, where lies comfort when starting to enter the market.

Well, it seems that some of the difficult choices that we have will result in our attempting to figure out various less worse solutions, and I am not even conceding that we necessarily have to be pessimistic about having a bunch of bad choices, and we can look at them in the negative if we like because systems have trade-offs and the various systems do likely bring good outcomes even when some people disproportionally benefit from various systems, infrastructure and rules that are in place.

Accordingly, bitcoin seems to give everyone access to a possible way that s/he can benefit disproportionately as compared to other systems that had been available to him/her.

Sometimes the method is very much determined by the way someone determines the strategy, while the benefits are the result of a strategic process that involves infrastructure and dares to get out of the comfort zone.
And maybe this choice will be based on previous experience, or it could be that people will continue to develop, when initially having problems in investing.
Don't really know and not really sure.

Well we have to find our balance and what we believe binds us to "law" - especially since not all laws are just, but we are likely going to be more grounded if we have some kind of a vision regarding what binds us and motivates us.  Without necessarily moralizing, there seems to be a certain morality that comes through something like bitcoin in terms of its seeming neutrality... a kind of neutrality that allows for the measurement of value that is not robbing from the people and disproportionately giving the robbed money - such as what the fiat system seems to inevitable gravitate towards those kinds of trade-offs, but bitcoin does not necessarily get rid of various traditional systems in which man is still making rules that are likely (or meant to be) compromises in society.

Sometimes talking about the law is too slow for us to start something, although it is also not recommended to violate it, let alone talking about laws that are unfair to certain circles, this kind of approach is sometimes very difficult to understand.
But bitcoin doesn't necessarily get rid of traditional systems where humans still make possible rules, but it doesn't eliminate the basic philosophy of early creation, and it's possible to compromise.

[JayJuanGee]

I've thrown away that idea. In my mind, relaxing life with owning bitcoins is only a fantasy. Since the conditions of the world or country will always be updated, it's possible for a relaxed life ^{(like people want)} to turn into a bad one in a short time. In this case I choose to relax from now on, buy Bitcoin when I have the money, hold it, and convert to fiat when I need it. Simple.

~snip~
If you have a longer term view, then you accumulate BTC.. even if it is ONLY $10 per week, and don't dip into it.. and let it accumulate.. and figure out other ways to satisfy yourself with your normal income and continue to save and let your savings build up and when you get at or close to fuck you status with your savings and investment having had been built up, then it will likly be more apparent how to start to draw from such investment without depleting it.. which usually is around 4% per year... which is a whole other story.. first is to build and get to the status in which you might be able to start to draw from it in a kind of perpetual way... and you never even get to that status if you keep converting it to fiat in your purportedly "simple" way that never allows it to either build in value nor to compound upon itself.

Yeah, you are right. But what I mean by "when I need it" is I only convert to fiat when I don't have money. If I still can get the money from my job to pay my living costs, what do I need to change it for? I didn't think about short term trade.
Thanks for the input. I'll take it as a consideration.

Fair enough.  I realize that sometimes we will express our BTC buy/sell conditions, our BTC accumulation and/or our BTC portfolio management practices in ways that might not capture the totality of what we are doing, and since we are in a public thread, sometimes we might need to flesh out some of the areas in which their might either be confusion or the message might be read in ways that had not been intended.  

For sure, I had considered myself to be in BTC accumulation stages in my first several years while I was in bitcoin between late 2013 and late 2016 - largely because it was ambiguous at best regarding how much my BTC holdings were in profits, because I bought my first BTC at prices that were well over $1k, but then throughout 2014 and even into 2015 the BTC prices largely went down and stayed down, and even when the BTC price seemed to start to go up in late 2015 and more slowly there was a decent amount of ambiguity regarding my own BTC portfolio and its costs.  I even had a sims card porting and hacking incident in early 2017 that likely caused me some additional prolonged concerns regarding how comfortable I could be regarding the level of my BTC portfolio profitability... so even if my earlier BTC buying prices in late 2013 and maybe even into early 2014 were in the $1k-ish price territory, and even though I continued to buy BTC as the BTC was dropping through 2014 and while BTC prices were in the slumps in 2015, my average cost per BTC was coming down, but the incidents and my own BTC portfolio management likely caused my average BTC price to drop down to $500 and then even go below $500 but then raise back up above $700 and maybe even at some point, I just started to feel better to consider my average cost per BTC to be around $1k.

Part of my point is that the more profitable our BTC holdings might end up being, the more likely that anyone of us might start to feel that we have more options in regards to whether to sell BTC at any price - because we are largely in profits anyhow.. versus during times in which we either might be more in a BTC accumulation stage and also feeling more like we have not necessarily accumulated enough BTC, so any time that we might sell some of our BTC, we might feel somewhat compelled to replace (within a reasonably short period of time) whatever quantity of BTC that we had sold.

So in that regard, we likely have more flexibility regarding whether to sell any of our BTC when we are further in profits and also if we feel (calculate) that we have largely met our surpassed our target BTC accumulation levels, which our BTC accumulation target levels should be somewhat tailored to our own personal financial and psychological circumstances.

[edited out]

..... you taught me about optimism in the previous discussion, even though it was not said directly, that means my statement will not bother you and others regarding this type of framing assumption, bitcoin will surely re-invent ATH, am I wrong on this?

My main issue is that bitcoin's reaching another ATH is not guaranteed. We can proclaim that it is highly probable or even that BTC is amongst the best (if not "the best") of investments currently available (and widely available to anyone) that has ever existed - yet even if we present with such optimism regarding how great of an investment bitcoin is, bitcoin is still not guaranteed to even be higher in price tomorrow than it is today, let alone reaching ATH again, let alone reaching $100ks of value or even $millions of value, as is also quite probable to happen.. still not guaranteed, even though bitcoin remains amongst the best of investments available to anyone currently as I type this post..

and I know the answer, although sometimes you won't say it out loud, and it's inevitable when it comes to the next ATH for Bitcoin.

"inevitable" = "guaranteed"

those two words mean pretty damned close to the same thing, and from my perspective, one of the things that is pretty damned close to "inevitable" in bitcoin is that its price is going to be considerably volatile, and we are not necessarily going to to know which direction... especially in the short term.

I still believe that it is not good to proclaim that it is "inevitable" that the BTC price is going to go up, even though I believe that it is amongst the best (if not "the best") of investments, so it is highly likely to have greater prices in the future as compared to its prices today.. especially if looking at 4-10 years or longer into the future.

That's the reason the traditional model will not help one in changing the investment style, considering the times and technology have presented many ways to get out of monetary practice, the dollar will continue to experience a decline in value in the case of storage, that's why we must take part in Bitcoin, let alone relate to purchasing power in the next 10 years, the dollar is clearly unable to maintain value.

I agree with everything you say, but it still does not mean to put 100% into bitcoin, and if BTC's very strong investment thesis ends up playing out, we do not even have to have a lot into bitcoin in order to have potentials to profit stupendously... but we still have to have some prudence in our BTC allocation regarding the extent to which we might want to be aggressive in our BTC allocation without becoming overly aggressive in terms of allocating too much or even believing that BTC is "a done deal."

The bitcoin cycle is complicated to understand, that's why we often call it Fluctuation, but we have been taught how bitcoin goes through a long process, so no one thinks any level of investment is safe to make or vice versa, your experience may be longer than mine, that's why I'm sure you won't have any problems when I start framing about ATH. Because honestly bitcoin is too unique to understand, and too difficult if we don't try to speculate.
I quite agree about the amount of investment, we can set the level of comfort and the value of bitcoin that we must have, the allocation can be different, according to the authorized capital, previous profits and the level of additional purchases, if someone knows to buy at the right time, then that's when someone will feel confident in bitcoin.
I'm not very familiar with stocks, but in general it may be almost the same as the investment pattern, but I agree more with the use of bitcoin than stocks.

I don't really disagree with anything you say here...., and if we have concluded that bitcoin has a strong investment thesis, then we can create our own BTC accumulation target level that aligns with our own particular personal circumstances, so depending on our budget, it could take us 4-10 years or longer just to start to get close to our allocation target levels... Of course, if we are already an experienced investor, we may have already spent many years building our investment portfolio, then if we come to the conclusion that we want a percentage of our investment portfolio to be allocated to bitcoin, whether that is 1% to 25% or some other allocation level that we feel comfortable, we may well have the option to reach our target level more quickly than someone who is newly investing and has not already built an investment portfolio - even though sometimes even experienced investors might not like to sell one asset and buy another so instead of selling any of their other investments, they might just start to allocate new money towards bitcoin until they reach their BTC accumulation goals, which also could take a year or two or even longer to reach.  

Yes.  Overall the dollar is nearly guaranteed to lose value, and bitcoin had great chances to continue to increase in value - especially if we are looking 4-10 years or longer.

This is what drives me to continue to increase my investment in bitcoin, the dollar will never be able to maintain its value, while bitcoin in the next 4-10 years will continue to show its existence, especially in terms of utilizing investment and generating maximum profits.

 The dollar has never really been a great place to hold a lot of value, even though many investment advisors or even managers of funds are mandated to keep a certain percentage of their holdings in dollars (or dollar equivalents), even though individuals do not have such mandates - but there can still be some prudence in keeping a certain amount of value in dollars - even though probably nothing even close to the amounts that investment fund managers are required to keep... These days they are almost mandated to lose money... except sometimes the dollar will do better in the short term.. such as the last year, the dollar did better than bitcoin and other assets - especially looking at the last 6 months or so.

[Reatim]

Also, please do not borrow money to invest in Bitcoin, and only invest what you can afford to lose.

Never that I will go towards this , I am a person that does not love or by any chance wanted to borrow Unless super emergency or badly needed.
My entire living lies on how much I earn and how much I wanna spend , investing in BITCOIN is solely I believe that will save me and my family in the future , maybe people does not see this now but in the long term when the adoption totally happens ? for sure they will feel the loss but nothing that they can do so "Invest in Bitcoin" that's it.

Thanks for sharing this mate , really worth a read.

[348Judah]

Well to be short and clear if you are into this market for a long time you you are definitely ready do everything even for the time when the market collapse or rises up in a few seconds.

Psychologically, everyone is always optimistic about thier bitcoin investment not to be a wasted efforts especially whenever there's high shift in volatility, the panic here and there that during the dip bitcoin continue to loose value to zero and others, but just as you've said, if you are already into this for long then it should mean nothing than sitting down to olan and prepare ahead, few weeks back it had been said yhat bitcoin is going down but today here we are in it again still standing and holding our assets with it, there will always be arise after a short fall with bitcoin price.

[Blawpaw]

that is always what I tell everyone. one Bitcoin will always be one Bitcoin. thta is to basically say that if you haven't bougth into Bitcoin, you are already losing. while one bitcoin will always be one Bitcoin, its sheer value will always increase, so it is better to have bitcoin than to have money in the Bank

[Japinat]

Well to be short and clear if you are into this market for a long time you you are definitely ready do everything even for the time when the market collapse or rises up in a few seconds.

Yes but sometimes you will be still affected by those unusual events that we may encounter in the future.Just to be ready we need to have at least set in our minds that no matter how dip it will be it will go up again, and also we need to plan before investing in anything so we will not have some regrets.

Yup, and it's really okay to take some setbacks because we cannot be physically and mentally ready all the time as we don't know what will happen down the road. What we're holding might collapse or might set another ATH, we really don't know but the important thing is that we know that bitcoin will always recover no matter how rock bottom it is. Just hodl fellas, we're getting there soon!

[Falconer]

that is always what I tell everyone. one Bitcoin will always be one Bitcoin. thta is to basically say that if you haven't bougth into Bitcoin, you are already losing. while one bitcoin will always be one Bitcoin, its sheer value will always increase, so it is better to have bitcoin than to have money in the Bank

But there is always the possibility that the 1 bitcoin you bought for $20K today becomes $15K in the future or maybe $100K. You should never ignore the possibility of a two direction market regardless of how you treat bitcoin. The average trader will not think 1 bitcoin is 1 bitcoin, but they will count it with fiat as the reason why they trade.

In the market you don't lose bitcoin if you don't sell at loss, but you will see its value fluctuate all the time. The basic principle is true that 1 bitcoin is 1 bitcoin, but if you are not an adopter of bitcoin as currency, then 1 bitcoin is $$$$.

[Blawpaw]

that is always what I tell everyone. one Bitcoin will always be one Bitcoin. thta is to basically say that if you haven't bougth into Bitcoin, you are already losing. while one bitcoin will always be one Bitcoin, its sheer value will always increase, so it is better to have bitcoin than to have money in the Bank!

[Cookdata]

I like how you think, I do believe that people who have bitcoin and wait for it in 8 years will be rich, because the expectations of bitcoins are rising more and more and since 2017 it rose to the price of $20k, people went crazy , when this year it is at $20k people and many say that it is dead, now in 8 years when it goes up a lot let's say to 150,000 dollars and then goes down to 70,000 which was the previous ATH, people will say that it is finished, the fud It works like this, opr that ´I think if they will be rich, and hopefully in 8 years from now I will manage to get my first Bitcoin to be able to have a more relaxed life.

8 years is a really long time, unexpected and expected events will happen. However, I think that all of these predictions of high prices may not come true because, as we saw when Corona, bitcoin experienced a severe crash. I sincerely hope that this won't occur again.

Gone are the days when people could look into their wallets and see how much money they had, now is the best time to hold the bitcoin you need, the search for a single bitcoin will become extremely difficult for new investors, holding a single bitcoin will be a thing of the past, and sats will probably be a new thing to talk about, which is why I believe now is the best time to hold the bitcoin you need.

[Hyphen(-)]

that is always what I tell everyone. one Bitcoin will always be one Bitcoin. thta is to basically say that if you haven't bougth into Bitcoin, you are already losing. while one bitcoin will always be one Bitcoin, its sheer value will always increase, so it is better to have bitcoin than to have money in the Bank

That is correct, but many people just jump into crypto trading, not Bitcoin specifically, and they came in unprepared, so if they have some disappointing results as a result of trading their shitcoins, they now blame the people who introduced them to cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin is always the best solution, followed by other Altcoins; however, if you have invested in Bitcoin, you will be safe and have enough time to research other projects that will yield them more profit. That is why it is important to relax and prepare thoroughly, both financially and mentally.

[JayJuanGee]

I like how you think, I do believe that people who have bitcoin and wait for it in 8 years will be rich, because the expectations of bitcoins are rising more and more and since 2017 it rose to the price of $20k, people went crazy , when this year it is at $20k people and many say that it is dead, now in 8 years when it goes up a lot let's say to 150,000 dollars and then goes down to 70,000 which was the previous ATH, people will say that it is finished, the fud It works like this, opr that ´I think if they will be rich, and hopefully in 8 years from now I will manage to get my first Bitcoin to be able to have a more relaxed life.

8 years is a really long time, unexpected and expected events will happen. However, I think that all of these predictions of high prices may not come true because, as we saw when Corona, bitcoin experienced a severe crash. I sincerely hope that this won't occur again.

Gone are the days when people could look into their wallets and see how much money they had, now is the best time to hold the bitcoin you need, the search for a single bitcoin will become extremely difficult for new investors, holding a single bitcoin will be a thing of the past, and sats will probably be a new thing to talk about, which is why I believe now is the best time to hold the bitcoin you need.

Of course there are no guarantees regarding how things will play out in 8 years, yet there are ways to both establish and to follow pro-active strategies that are tailored to having some stake in the bitcoin game (as an investment) rather than waiting to see or even getting all worked about trying to figure out what will happen and what won't.

Let's say that some hypothetical person is in his/her early 30s, has already established an investment portfolio that has about $50k in traditional investments.. but zero bitcoin.  If the person has $3k to $4k of cashflow every month, and an ability to invest $600 to $1.2k (average $900) every month, then where is s/he going to put that investment money?  Put it into his/her investment portfolio, put it into bitcoin, or combine such tactics in order to have some money invested in each area?

Prior to March 2020, I used to suggest 1% to 10% of an investment portfolio should be in bitcoin, but after March 2020, I have started to suggest 1% to 25% into bitcoin - not zero%.  So if you are somewhat whimpy about it, then just invest 1% into bitcoin, and if you are more aggressive invest towards the upper end of the range.  So the hypothetical person with the current $50k investment portfolio would have been able to invest an additional $86,400 over the next 8 years (that is $900 per mo x 8 years, x 12 months per year),  so where is s/he going to put that money?  If the investment does not gain in value, s/he would still end up with $136,400 after the next 8 years.. so the BIG question is how much of that should be in bitcoin?  1%, 25%, some amount in the middle or some amount out of the range?   Hopefully our hypothetical person (and real persons) are getting off of zero, getting some stake in the game - if they are whimpy then merely investing 1% may well be enough for them, and if they are more assertive, I don't see any reason to go beyond investing 25% of their portfolio new investment into bitcoin - even though in the very beginning maybe all of the new investment cashflow would go into bitcoin in order to get up to reaching the target investment percentage amount.

So, ultimately reaching a target investment amount is one thing, and then once reaching such target investment amount, then maintaining it and/or figuring out how to manage new money coming in (how much to put to bitcoin and how much to put towards other investments) is another thing.  And, another consideration is if the bitcoin grows disproportionately in comparison to other parts of the investment portfolio, there will be questions about whether to reallocate or to let the winners ride (presuming that bitcoin may well have decently good chances to outperform other portions of the investment portfolio (which historically has been true in bitcoin, but ongoing bitcoin outperformance is not guaranteed - even though it has worked out vary well historically). 

Each person has to decide for themselves the extent to which they may well want to be reallocating their bitcoin once they get to higher value levels, but if they don't have any bitcoin, or they do not have very many bitcoin, then they don't need to resolve that problem... so the first thing is to get some bitcoin and to figure that part out first  and the maintenance of your portfolio will become more clear and concrete once you have established a decent stash of bitcoin - rather than talking in the hypothetical when  you still don't have much of any.  Another thing is making sure that you do not lose your bitcoin, as you are building it up, so having good storage and/or good practices so you do not lose your bitcoin.

For sure, there are a lot of considerations to mentally prepare yourself in regards to 1) accumulating your bitcoin, then 2) maintaining your bitcoin and hopefully 3) getting to a place where you have a sufficiently large enough quantity of bitcoin (and the value has gone up) in order that you will have the "good problem to have" of spending your bitcoin.

[Shaha98]

If you invest in crypto currency then you definitely need skills. Because market relations are not experienced by new people because they are at risk when new people come here to invest will go Because they will continue to invest directly without doing market research then if anything goes down from the investment part they will blame cryptocurrency. That's why newbies should invest by researching the market and gaining expertise.

Of course everyone invests by considering the market and Crypto Currency you will definitely benefit if you invest by mastering the market. Of course you need to know about the Cryptocurrency market have to stay

[JayJuanGee]

If you invest in crypto currency then you definitely need skills.

You are truly lost if you are investing in cryptocurrency.  I would not do that.   Fuck that shit.

First you have to learn what is bitcoin, and learn about bitcoin.  Invest in bitcoin, and even investing into bitcoin is not necessarily easy, because one of the first steps is to learn and get clear about yourself and your own financial circumstances. 

All of the information to learn about yourself and your financial circumstances should already be available, but each of us still needs to be able to understand (and perhaps organize) that information that we have right in front of us.

So the level of skills that we need should not really be very high, except just managing your budget, figuring out your cashflow and then investing within the parameters of your cashflow, and one of the best beginner practices is to dollar cost average, and even a beginner person should be able to start dollar cost averaging into bitcoin right away.

Let's say that we have a no coiner who is new to bitcoin, and wants to get started investing into bitcoin, and even the person who has the most messed up of lives with bad financial organizing and maybe even a messed up life in terms of having too many things going on.. even those unorganized people will still likely have some ballpark ideas about how much money they have coming in and how many expenses they have.

So any person might be able to get started buying bitcoin in a dollar cost averaging way at about $10 per week, and then maybe take one to two months to get their lives organized in order to figure out if they might be able to increase their way of investing into bitcoin and to figure out their plans in regards to bitcoin in terms of what their BTC accumulation goals might be.

Accordingly, there is a need to spend some time to figure out individual and personal details such as: cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

I am not going to suggest that figuring out these kinds of personal details should really be out of grasp of anyone, but each of us can learn them better when we put them into practice and we are consciously attempting to pay attention to them and to attempt to invest in accordance with these kinds of principles that any of us should be able to figure out in terms of how they apply to our own individual circumstances.

Because market relations are not experienced by new people because they are at risk when new people come here to invest will go Because they will continue to invest directly without doing market research then if anything goes down from the investment part they will blame cryptocurrency. That's why newbies should invest by researching the market and gaining expertise.

I don't know about all of that.  I have my doubts about whether there are needs to gain high levels of expertise, especially if we focus on bitcoin rather than getting caught up in shitcoin and bullshit conceptual frameworks like "cryptocurrency."  What the fuck is cryptocurrency?  I have been in bitcoin for nearly 9 years, and I have hardly any clue when people talk about crypto, unless they describe what they are talking about within a context of what particular shitcoin or complicated thing are you referring to?  I would say don't waste your time learning about all the bullshit because it will be as confusing and complicated as you say it is... and bitcoin is complicated enough.

In other words, just start out by learning about bitcoin, then that will take out a lot of the needs to try to be some kind of expert or to spend hundreds of hours or more studying all kinds of meaningless crap, such as shitcoins or even trying to understand what is "crypto".

Accordingly, each of us should be able to consider how much we want to accumulate and our various strategies around bitcoin in such a way that we do not necessarily need to know or to try to figure out short term BTC price movements.. so in that regard, we would be investing long term strategies with a kind of preparation and expectation that the BTC price will be going up in the longer term - even though we also recognize and appreciate that the BTC price is NOT guaranteed to go up.

Of course everyone invests by considering the market and Crypto Currency you will definitely benefit if you invest by mastering the market. Of course you need to know about the Cryptocurrency market have to stay

It seems that the main thing is to get your bitcoin strategy down and attempt to learn about bitcoin first, and maybe after you get a pretty decent grasp on bitcoin and getting your bitcoin strategy in a decent place, then after that, you might screw around learning about other "crypto" projects.  Sure, I doubt that shitcoins and the various scams are going away, yet it still seems to be amongst the better of practices to focus on bitcoin first and even try using the word bitcoin when you talk about these matters in order that you can improve your communication skills on the topic, because I doubt that you even know what you are talking about if you are unable to figure out why you want to use the term "crypto" if you were talking about bitcoin, and if you are considering buying various shitcoins and getting involved in that nonsense, then it would be better to specify which ones you are considering getting involved in and what is your investment thesis into those, and what is your comparison going to be?  Your comparison should be bitcoin because if you do not know how to compare bitcoin to whatever shitcoin project you are considering, then you would be floating in some kind of lalaland without a reference (and maybe say "hi" to Vitalik and some of those dweebs when you are out there in fantasy land)..

[PercyMarissa]

Crypto investment can bring about mental illness if not properly prepared for. Been prepared for the market means so much discipline and patience. But unfortunately patience are hardly taught to new traders  by their so called mentors. If patience could be emphasised more on i think many who get newly introduced to crypto will get more mentally prepared.

I agree with you too much, mainly because I have a young friend by my side. Because of the failure of the business, he wanted to make money faster and entered the cryptocurrency world decisively. Now the whole person is mentally broken. For me, I have no way to help him, he has lost reason and the most correct judgment.