Price prediction based on Fed's decision T/F Price analysis? Possible?

[fiulpro]

Right now we are seeing many people super adamant on predicting the prices based on the decision of the fed and the past as well cannot deny that time and again we have seen inversely proportional relationship between the prices of the Fed's investment plans and the Price of Bitcoin itself, most of the times people tell us that we are unable to predict the price since it depends upon a lot of factors :

            Price of Bitcoins ∝ x.y.z........ so on

But looks like we are able to find one of these variables, which is the' Fed', if they increase the interest rates then we would ofcourse have a negative outcome and vice versa.

I think we must be very careful and instigate ourselves, find out how everything works and at the same time try and find these variables for a more successful investment since at the end of the day it's a " crypto " and crypto marker is equivalent to turbulence.

I would like to ask everyone to state one of the variables which they think satisfies the equation ! That would promote a healthy discussion.

Is the price analysis possible to an extent?

[NeuroticFish]

Is the price analysis possible to an extent?

I think that since speculation is (still) a strong component in Bitcoin price, Fed decision cannot be quantified correctly and mathematically in the price we see at the exchanges.
So my answer to your question is, unfortunately, a no.

[Upgrade00]

Raised interest rates makes the option of borrowing less attractive as well as discouraging spending and investing. Bitcoin as an investment would be affected by this no doubt, how much of an effect it would have now, or in a week or a month, or a year, cannot be predicted however.

Is the price analysis possible to an extent?

Every analysis is probable to an extent. There however are no guarantees and it cannot be relied on as a metric to speculate price actions.

[Darker45]

Bitcoin speculators consider a lot of factors which probably include the Fed's big decisions to strengthen the USD. We need to remind ourselves that Bitcoin is already a mainstream investment option and a significant number of Bitcoin investors are the same people who are playing in the traditional market. Bitcoin isn't anymore a very radical option these days. Many Bitcoin investors are the same people that give weight to the likes of interest rates.

But then Bitcoin isn't a US currency. It's a global currency and asset. The Fed's decisions can't be made as a determining factor. It's just one among many factors.

[EarnOnVictor]

Correctness of price prediction is 95% possible as far as I am concerned, what you don't know, you don't know. I have met at least one trader that has very high accuracy in knowing what Bitcoin would do, I myself am a good market speculator, so I know what I am saying.

I used to say that nothing happens in the market without a reason, it could be economic or technical, if the trader could dig well, the reason for a particular action would always be unveiled.

Specifically, the economic factors are many and affect Bitcoin to varying degrees, which is why novice traders seem to be confused when some sudden movements happen in the market, just like what we witnessed yesterday. Without wasting time, inflation news like CPI, PPI, Core PCE Price Index, and Interest rates should be taken seriously these days. Nothing affects the price of Bitcoin more than theirs.

[franky1]

But looks like we are able to find one of these variables, which is the' Fed', if they increase the interest rates then we would ofcourse have a negative outcome and vice versa.

when the FED talk about interest rates and inflation increases for 2023. yes some people that have not already hoarded their real life lifestyle stuff while its cheap. will sell crypto assets to get fiat to buy goods quick.. but then with next real world income they will not need to buy things, meaning disposable cash to then invest back into deflationary assets for inflationary hedges


many businesses done this already in spring.. meaning now they dont care as much about interest rates. and are now back into prepping to invest their spare/disposable cash that they dont want/shouldnt want to keep as value losing fiat

[OcTradism]

FED now is like SEC in 2017 to 2019. Soon you will see price moves oppositely to what it usually moves before with similar news from FED. Then people will regret by not buying dips or will get loss by betting oppositely to what price actually moves.

Bitcoin is in a long sideway and you are safe now but before any big bull run, there usually is a serious wash out. Assume Bitcoin continue to move in a sideway channel from $17k to $20k, we will see another crash in a last wash out before 2024 or 2025 bull run. As it would be a crash, from $17k, price should be dumped to $10k or $13k. that is possible absolute bottom for Bitcoin in this bear market.

[Sandra_hakeem]

The market strategy is sometimes very different from analysis. In as much as nobody controls the market, they'll always be an autumn of uncertainty.

Based on Fed's calculus, it seems to be the normal thing that should happen; having the variables predetermined e:g 'x' might however play cool as a turn-back, positive sniper entry but sometimes,the well goes dry. Bulls exponge, interest rate rises, that'll make you understand that the whole thing isn't based on those variables mostly.
 
It's based on the exponential difference between the actual price and the future price which is sometimes, inversely proportional to the former and it rely on an enormous uncertainty over the world's economy.

Sandra 👩‍🦱

[buwaytress]

The July rate hike was something of an outlier though, an immediate pullback in BTC price followed quickly by a return to pre announcement AND higher prices.

In fact, almost similar can be seen with today's one (unless we don't take back 19k, that is).

Short term effect, for sure, but the band returns fairly quickly I'd say.

We haven't seen yet an outcome that is better than expected (not jobs but interest and inflation). Wonder if that bounces Bitcoin more permanently (read, medium term).

[justdimin]

Bitcoin speculators consider a lot of factors which probably include the Fed's big decisions to strengthen the USD. We need to remind ourselves that Bitcoin is already a mainstream investment option and a significant number of Bitcoin investors are the same people who are playing in the traditional market. Bitcoin isn't anymore a very radical option these days. Many Bitcoin investors are the same people that give weight to the likes of interest rates.

But then Bitcoin isn't a US currency. It's a global currency and asset. The Fed's decisions can't be made as a determining factor. It's just one among many factors.

This is especially true when we are talking about whales, it could be people or it could be hedge funds or corporations and we can easily say that they are part of everything and not just bitcoin. They spend billions on bitcoin but they also spend billions on other things as well, have investments probably all around the world too.

That's the reason why we are talking about something so major, it is going to allow people to make sure that they are involved in something that billionaires are part of as well. This is a good thing, for the first time ever they can't cheat their way out of a system, they will earn as much percentage as we do, or lose as much as we do.

[piebeyb]

it's only for those who want to exchange their BTC to fiat money so it might be affected by an increase in interest rates, we need to understand in any market situation nothing affects the actual bitcoin price, because we have to know 1 BTC = 1 BTC

[GigaBit]

If we go back to 2017-2018, the Fed was not that important part for price speculation of bitcoin. But when the market was effecting a major bearish trend towards the end of 2021, various economic organizations including the Fed, SEC began to swallow it.

I deserve those who control the banking system will never accept a currency like Bitcoin as a global currency. However, everyone can have predictions about the Bitcoin price but Bitcoin will run at its own motion.