The economic effect of people flying from RF mandatory conscription

[Ozero]

The head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, said during a speech at the Financial Congress in early July that Russia is faced with three main problems for the Russian economy.
"I would now highlight three types of restrictions, they are interconnected. This is the labor force. The situation shows us that we can no longer grow extensively and growth can only be due to labor productivity, and labor productivity is technology. And for us there are restrictions “is access to technology, our own technological development,” Nabiullina noted.

She noted that according to the Central Bank of Russia, three-quarters of Russian enterprises faced a labor shortage. Nabiullina added that for the Russian economy to grow, it is also necessary to find long-term sources of investment financing.
Source: https://censor.net/ru/n3497975

All three problems of the Russian economy - the labor shortage, the difficulty of obtaining technology and attracting long-term investments - are directly related to Russia's military invasion of Ukraine and the international sanctions imposed on Russia. The labor shortage is caused by the eight-year decline in the birth rate and high mortality in Russia, the partial and hidden mobilization of men for the war in Ukraine and large losses in the war, as well as their travel abroad to avoid mobilization.

According to a study by the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the personnel shortage in Russia at the end of 2023 amounted to 4.8 million people.
https://www.forbes.ru/biznes/503229-ekonomisty-ran-ocenili-deficit-kadrov-v-rossii-pocti-v-5-mln-celovek

[stompix]

The head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, said during a speech at the Financial Congress in early July that Russia is faced with three main problems for the Russian economy.
"I would now highlight three types of restrictions, they are interconnected. This is the labor force. The situation shows us that we can no longer grow extensively and growth can only be due to labor productivity, and labor productivity is technology. And for us there are restrictions “is access to technology, our own technological development,” Nabiullina noted.

And a lot of Russians and Russia's supporters look at the GDP and claim everything is fine!
The thing is GDP doesn't matter in a war economy, Nazi Germany's main country GDP (excluding occupied lands) grew during 5 out of the 7 years of the war and surprisingly in nominal terms in 45 was just 15% lower than back in 1939!

They don't understand the circumstances of actual labor productivity and stagnation in other areas.
You build a 10 million tank and that gets blown in 6 weeks, wow you increase the GDP by 10 million, you have 3 people employed, and you also spend on ammo and fuel, and everything looks fine, but another country buying 100 trucks to improve transportation for goods between suburbs and the main cities will get a way better economical gain from that!
The USSR increased its GDP like that, with the millions of vehicles produced, they all rot either destroyed in Ukraine or abandoned in Siberia, and they have bought nothing economically.

Gazprom lost money for the first time in their history, and now Russia wants to keep the agreement for the gas transition, pretty telling how much desperate they are to sell gas for euros and USD! They seriously don't understand they're falling into the same trap the USSR did after Afghanistan and this time it will be 10 times worse.

Unfortunately, this will keep dragging on, and no matter how worse this will end for the Russians the suffering of Ukraine is the real tragedy.



 

[Lucius]

~snip~
Unfortunately, this will keep dragging on, and no matter how worse this will end for the Russians the suffering of Ukraine is the real tragedy.

The war will continue until the leading politicians in one or both countries change, but I honestly do not see a peaceful solution to the conflict at this moment. Ukraine simply must not give in at any cost, because it will remain without occupied territories forever, and Russia and its emperor will never retreat peacefully after all the losses they have suffered since the beginning of the war.

However, what Russia has as the most consumable goods are people, and not those from the biggest cities where life goes on almost normally, but from the rural areas from which most of the cannon fodder is recruited. In addition, I read that people who came to work in Russia are often found among the war fighters, and this only shows the level of recklessness or perhaps despair in their ranks.

However, if we look at history, Russia has always recovered from every war, and even if 10 million people die, I have no doubt that it will be too big a problem.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has not only laid bare the geopolitical rifts between major world powers but has also highlighted the vulnerabilities faced by economic migrants, particularly from South Asia. The disturbing trend of Indian nationals being drafted into the Russian military showcases a darker side of international labor movements, where geopolitical strategies exploit economic desperation.

Russia’s recruitment tactics, which have ensnared Indian workers under the guise of promising lucrative employment opportunities, reveal a significant ethical breach. Initially recruited under the premise of serving as “army helpers” in non-combatant roles, these migrants were made to sign contracts in Russian – a language they do not understand – and subsequently were thrust into active military duty. This manipulation of labor for military purposes is not just a breach of ethical recruiting practices but also a misuse of human resources from a nation that Russia considers a strategic partner.

[stompix]

~snip~
Unfortunately, this will keep dragging on, and no matter how worse this will end for the Russians the suffering of Ukraine is the real tragedy.

The war will continue until the leading politicians in one or both countries change, but I honestly do not see a peaceful solution to the conflict at this moment.

Well, you made peace with Serbia, right? There is hope, not now of course but sometimes peace can settle in some really weird places!
If you look back at ww1 Central Europe ods would have been 1.01 of czechs,slovaks,hugarians,austrians killing each other till there was nothing left!

However, what Russia has as the most consumable goods are people, and not those from the biggest cities where life goes on almost normally, but from the rural areas from which most of the cannon fodder is recruited. In addition, I read that people who came to work in Russia are often found among the war fighters, and this only shows the level of recklessness or perhaps despair in their ranks.~
However, if we look at history, Russia has always recovered from every war, and even if 10 million people die, I have no doubt that it will be too big a problem.

They have never truly recovered to prewar WW2 level on par with other countries and what you see now in inner Russia (so Moscow and St Petersburg) is because of massive inflow from former -stan and other countries, which will not happen if there is no money!
After the jewish population, the russians have the lowest fertility rate of all 30+ groups in Russia!
Once Putin is done with the minorities they will be worse than South Korea!

Russia will not of course go entirely destroyed but it will be the first world power of the last century to fade into irrelevance!

[Lucius]

Well, you made peace with Serbia, right? There is hope, not now of course but sometimes peace can settle in some really weird places!
If you look back at ww1 Central Europe ods would have been 1.01 of czechs,slovaks,hugarians,austrians killing each other till there was nothing left!

The Croatian people never made peace with those butchers who never apologized for their mass crimes, but mostly treacherous politicians never had a problem with that. It's the same thing in Ukraine, the Russians attack hospitals, kindergartens and schools and claim that this is not happening - in Croatia, Serbs killed 402 children and no one ever expressed regret for that.

They have never truly recovered to prewar WW2 level on par with other countries and what you see now in inner Russia (so Moscow and St Petersburg) is because of massive inflow from former -stan and other countries, which will not happen if there is no money!
After the jewish population, the russians have the lowest fertility rate of all 30+ groups in Russia!
Once Putin is done with the minorities they will be worse than South Korea!

Russia will not of course go entirely destroyed but it will be the first world power of the last century to fade into irrelevance!

Apparently, they have recovered enough to be able to attack other countries, without taking into account how many people they lose in the process. If you look at Western Europe, the situation is not any better, the labor force is mainly obtained from the eastern member states and through migrant routes in the permeable Schengen area. As you know, my country is on the outer border of that area, and last year alone, over 60 000 illegal migrants entered Slovenia from my country. Controlled release of people with stories about how the police guard the borders has become a daily occurrence.

[Ozero]

The war will continue until the leading politicians in one or both countries change, but I honestly do not see a peaceful solution to the conflict at this moment. Ukraine simply must not give in at any cost, because it will remain without occupied territories forever, and Russia and its emperor will never retreat peacefully after all the losses they have suffered since the beginning of the war.

However, what Russia has as the most consumable goods are people, and not those from the biggest cities where life goes on almost normally, but from the rural areas from which most of the cannon fodder is recruited. In addition, I read that people who came to work in Russia are often found among the war fighters, and this only shows the level of recklessness or perhaps despair in their ranks.

Russia still really enjoys the advantage in people and is now simply throwing “live meat” at the Ukrainian front, since large losses force the Russian front to be replenished with mobilization resources of 30,000 people every month and they simply do not have time to more or less properly prepare them for military action. This is one of the reasons for the greatly increased losses of the Russian army in battles against Ukraine.

According to British intelligence estimates, in May and June alone, the Russian army lost about 70 thousand of its soldiers killed and wounded in Ukraine.
https://www.ukr.net/news/details/russianaggression/105631208.html
This roughly corresponds to the data of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which on May 1 indicated the number of irretrievable losses of Russia in the amount of 469,840 people, and on July 1 - 543,810 people, that is, the difference was about 74 thousand. The increased losses are also explained by the expansion of the front in the Kharkov region and the shortage of tanks and armored vehicles in Russia, as a result of which infantry often storm Ukrainian positions without armored vehicle cover. In addition, if previously for one gun shot of the Ukrainian Armed Forces there were seven shots fired by the Russian occupiers, now this figure is leveling out and has become one in three. Therefore, the Kremlin began to urgently need soldiers, and as a result, one-time payments when concluding a contract in Russia increased from 200 thousand rubles to 1.6 million rubles, depending on the region.

The question is how long will Russians agree to die in Ukraine for big money. Former female prisoners have already been spotted in Russian assault squads, since Russian prisons have almost run out of men. The Armed Forces of Ukraine admit that Russian women do not surrender, they save the last grenade for themselves.