America Has Lost Its Oil Buffer

[Hydrogen]

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at historically low levels, when there are still many supply uncertainties

Brace for impact: The U.S. is running out of a cushion reserved for oil shocks.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve declined by nearly 7 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 16, leaving it at roughly 427 million barrels—the lowest since 1984. For the first time since 1983, the SPR now holds less oil than commercial storage.

The U.S. has been drawing from the reserve at a rapid pace this year. The Energy Department on Monday said it has released roughly 155 million barrels of crude oil since President Biden authorized a draw of up to 180 million barrels on March 31. That implies a draw of slightly less than 900,000 barrels a day, or nearly 1% of global oil demand. The DOE on Monday said it plans to sell up to 10 million barrels from the SPR in November, extending the SPR draw beyond the initial October target. That would leave only about 15 million barrels that could be sold under the emergency authorization.



Image link:  https://i.ibb.co/vBhwFf5/spr-million-barrels.png

For Mr. Biden, who was looking to use the emergency authorization to lower pump prices, the move has been a near-term success, at least in the critical time leading up to the November midterm elections. Gasoline prices have declined steadily in the past three months and average $3.66 a gallon, down from a high of $5.03 in mid-June, according to GasBuddy.

Arguably, though, the release didn’t turn out to be necessary for energy security—the SPR’s stated purpose. The International Energy Agency initially thought Russia’s oil production would be cut by 3 million barrels a day after its invasion of Ukraine. Back then, there was at least a “perceived supply emergency” posed by Russia, said Bob McNally, president of the energy-consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group. That turned out to be a wild overestimate. As of August, Russia’s exports were down just 400,000 to 450,000 barrels a day from prewar levels, according to the latest IEA report. As Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, puts it, “High prices are inconvenient. Lack of availability is a crisis.”

Depleted SPR levels leave the U.S. with fewer options in case of supply disruptions, which remain possible. To begin with, Russia’s oil exports will become a real wild card after Dec. 5, when the European Union’s import ban on Russian oil takes effect. By February 2023, the IEA expects Russia’s daily oil output to be 1.9 million barrels below preinvasion levels. While the Group of Seven nations agree on some form of price cap on Russian oil, what that mechanism will actually look like and how it will affect Russian supply are uncertain. On top of that, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has repeatedly signaled that it will cut output if prices fall. It already did so—albeit in a symbolic way—earlier this month, pulling back 100,000 barrels a day. And then there are also demand-side risks in the form of a potential recession and further lockdowns in China.

With so many hazards just around the bend, the U.S. needs a fully functioning air bag. Alas, this one comes with diminished cushioning capacity. Though the president can technically authorize more SPR drawdowns, there will be a limit, given that the IEA has a minimum stockholding obligation for participating members. RBC Capital Markets previously pegged that number for the U.S. at roughly 315 million barrels. And the DOE will eventually have to replenish the SPR by the same amount that it drew this year, increasing future oil demand. A DOE spokesperson said replenishment won’t likely occur until September 2023.

Besides the short-term political gain, the SPR draw could turn out to have been a losing strategy however the supply-demand balance shakes out. If there is an actual oil shock and not enough oil in the SPR to cushion it, it would be a painful lesson on why the reserve exists in the first place. If there is no such shock, this year’s SPR draw might have set a precedent for politicized use in the future.


https://www.wsj.com/articles/america-has-lost-its-oil-buffer-11663821015

....


This could signal a prelude to gasoline prices trending upwards in the states. SPR injection into america's fossil fuel industry was the only thing keeping prices at a maintainable level.

I'm curious to know what effect this might have upon china's exports to the USA. Large US retailers like amazon might also experience difficulties with their free shipping contracts, over the long term.

The following is an interesting point.

Russia’s oil exports will become a real wild card after Dec. 5, when the European Union’s import ban on Russian oil takes effect. By February 2023, the IEA expects Russia’s daily oil output to be 1.9 million barrels below preinvasion levels. While the Group of Seven nations agree on some form of price cap on Russian oil, what that mechanism will actually look like and how it will affect Russian supply are uncertain.

These points are very interesting as well:

Though the president can technically authorize more SPR drawdowns, there will be a limit, given that the IEA has a minimum stockholding obligation for participating members. RBC Capital Markets previously pegged that number for the U.S. at roughly 315 million barrels. And the DOE will eventually have to replenish the SPR by the same amount that it drew this year, increasing future oil demand. A DOE spokesperson said replenishment won’t likely occur until September 2023.

I wonder how long these trends will affect mainstream consciousness. Will people want to remember all these events that are happening. Or would they prefer to simply forget.

[1714237980]

1714237980

[1714237980]

1714237980

[1714237980]

1714237980

[1714237980]

1714237980

[DrBeer]

I don't think it's a big problem for the US. Especially with today's falling oil prices. Totzhe China can resell, at a cheap price, tighter Russian oil. If Urals today costs $66 per barrel (the spot price!), then China's price is already about $30 per barrel. And to play along with the United States, it is now very profitable for China - well, not to do business with losers ?!

[pooya87]

A big problem US is facing which nobody seems to dare to point out is that the amount of oil they used to steal from other countries has significantly decreased over the past 2 years.

You see, US is the biggest consumer of energy and they rely on importing oil. But for the past 20 years, due to invasion of oil rich countries like Iraq, Yemen and even Syria they have been stealing a ton of oil from them which they brought to US for domestic use.
But over the past 2 years their military positions in all those countries (specially around the oil facilities they illegally control) were being attacked hard to the point that they have lost almost all the oil they were stealing. According to CENTCOM the attacks have increased 400%. For example the output of Syrian oil has decreased more than 80% that's hundreds of thousands of barrels. So obviously they have to dip into the reserves and US oil itself is running out real fast to the point that experts predict that US is only going to have oil to extract for a couple of more years (best case scenario is 5 years).

The worst part is that the Americans have already fucked with anybody who has a lot of oil: Russia, Venezuela, Iran, ... Even the Saudis (aka the 51st US state) is shifting to the East.
The coming year or two will be very interesting in global politics to see if or how they are going to manage it this time.

[bittraffic]

A big problem US is facing which nobody seems to dare to point out is that the amount of oil they used to steal from other countries has significantly decreased over the past 2 years.

You see, US is the biggest consumer of energy and they rely on importing oil. But for the past 20 years, due to invasion of oil rich countries like Iraq, Yemen and even Syria they have been stealing a ton of oil from them which they brought to US for domestic use.
But over the past 2 years their military positions in all those countries (specially around the oil facilities they illegally control) were being attacked hard to the point that they have lost almost all the oil they were stealing. According to CENTCOM the attacks have increased 400%. For example the output of Syrian oil has decreased more than 80% that's hundreds of thousands of barrels. So obviously they have to dip into the reserves and US oil itself is running out real fast to the point that experts predict that US is only going to have oil to extract for a couple of more years (best case scenario is 5 years).

The worst part is that the Americans have already fucked with anybody who has a lot of oil: Russia, Venezuela, Iran, ... Even the Saudis (aka the 51st US state) is shifting to the East.
The coming year or two will be very interesting in global politics to see if or how they are going to manage it this time.

With so many enemies made in the past, they have been making proposals to them even the President they once call terrorists. Germany had also tried repairing thier relationship with countries they were quarreling hoping to make a deal with oil, it's proof that we are really not prepared for what is coming. The electricity we use today is produced thru these fossil fuels we get from OPEC countries where we also plug the EVs. A few week ago, it's funny because they were restricting EVs to be recharged.

But it's still too unbelievable for US to have a low reserve because there are sources still like Syria, Canada or Venezuela.

[el kaka22]

The good side about the current situation is that USA still has some oil that they are not drilling for, obviously for environment reasons but they are definitely looking at something that is profitable for them to recover if things get too heated. Oil is something that is getting higher in price without some cap that should have been there to begging with.

I understand that the price of oil has gone up due to this Russian war deal, but it has gone up so much that oil companies are making record breaking profits, which means that it didn't have to be this high, companies are taking advantage of the situation and nothing more, and they could stop that too.

[Gyfts]

I understand that the price of oil has gone up due to this Russian war deal, but it has gone up so much that oil companies are making record breaking profits, which means that it didn't have to be this high, companies are taking advantage of the situation and nothing more, and they could stop that too.

The record breaking profits are just a propaganda line that's regurgitated over and over again without any context. The profit margin on oil is the only number that would add any context to the "greed" narrative that's being disseminated by the anti-oil anti-capitalist advocacy groups. I don't know what that number is, and I doubt private corporations would be willing to divulge such analytics of their business to be picked apart by the climate radicals. Any profit is too much for these folks.

Oil production cut by millions of barrels due to unprovoked war, energy prices begin to sky rocket. Is this some sort of corporate conspiracy or the probable result of supply and demand?

[Welsh]

What's the state of fossil fuels in the US? Have you guys seen much of an impact from the Russian , and Ukrainian war? I imagine you haven't seen as dramatic as I do believe you generate a lot of your fossil fuels, apart from maybe oil? As pointed out above by pooya87.

The UK for example, have significantly seen the effects. We're paying around 1.80-1.90 for one litre of diesel, while some states in the US are paying something like 4/5 dollars per GALLON. The difference being we heavily relied on imports which have been effected by the war. 

The worst part is that the Americans have already fucked with anybody who has a lot of oil: Russia, Venezuela, Iran, ... Even the Saudis (aka the 51st US state) is shifting to the East.
The coming year or two will be very interesting in global politics to see if or how they are going to manage it this time.

You can compare it to the empires of old. They basically took over land, stole from the local resources, until either they exhausted it at that time or were so big they couldn't handle internal conflict, since they were constantly at war they needed to tax the people or steal (what ever you prefer to call it) to be able to keep that war effort going.

Similarly, the USA has basically attacked several nations, and have basically stuck their nose in every single conflict in the world, and looked to make it a benefit for them, which if you look at tactically, in the short term was a good idea. However, as you rightly point out, they're now struggling because they've started to push a lot the countries that were previously friendly away from them.

I hate to say it, but I can't see anything, but war in the long term. America likes to get what they want, and they've shown multiple times they don't care at what expense that might be. I think part of their downfall now, and in the medium term is that people have become aware of how much damage they actually did by invading the middle east, and surrounding countries. So, the locals aren't actually that friendly towards American troops despite the position they might be in.

[NotATether]

I think it's only a real win to the punters who are speculating on oil becoming more expensive - if someone has open positions on these, it should be fairly simple to see them out given that the oil price is currently undervalued (in the US - and any surprises that happen there usually affect the rest of the world).

[fiulpro]

1. Ukraine have just submitted an application to join NATO as soon as it can, thus the things with Russia are just going to escalate now.

2. India and China are being asked to talk with Russia since the energy crisis is real, most of the prices are rising tremendously

3. Russia is sending oil and gas workers to fight in Ukraine which is completely absurd

4. There is going to be a price cap on Russian oil as well, countries like afganistan are still signing deals with Russia

5. Saudi Arabia, India , china are kind of not all too unsupportive of Russia, add afganistan as well thus whatever they are thinking of doing, Banning the oil, whatever it's not going to have a longer lasting effect since most countries are going to buy it and they are willing to sell it at any price.

- Now the only way to win this war is by establishing an alternative, not fossil fuels! We know better than this, but things like " green energy " harnessing the power of wind energy, solar energy etc but the leaders are not waking up they are still in denial.

[hugeblack]

I live close to the oil fields, and I believe that the current producing countries, if they have the resources and political will, an additional production of 3-5 million barrels per day will not be a problem, and it is also possible, and politically cool, to add several million barrels if the problems are resolved in Libya, Venezuela and Iran.

I do not think that the current problem is with oil, because during long periods in the world there have been many wars and economic changes that made countries prohibit the sale and purchase of oil from other countries.

However, many countries have found other ways to buy and sell that oil, and the embargo process will eventually cause the price to rise Which opens a new market.

The biggest problem will be in gas prices, especially this year and next.

In short, the issue of the strategic stockpile will not affect prices, but rather political decisions.

[pooya87]

I do not think that the current problem is with oil, because during long periods in the world there have been many wars and economic changes that made countries prohibit the sale and purchase of oil from other countries.

The problem is that at this point sanctions are against all of them not just some.
For example 2-3 decades ago it was just Iran under sanctions, so they could fill that gap in the market with others. But as time went on they kept sanctioning more countries; eventually the number of sanctioned countries became more than the countries that enforced those sanctions!

In a way, today it is US/EU that are under sanctions not the other way around.

The funniest part is that Iran alone could solve all the oil and gas problems that the West is facing. If Iranians decided to remove their sanctions on Europe, 100 million barrels of oil in the storages could be dumped on the European market right away crashing the price below $40 and the production could increase to about 4 million barrels per day ensuring price stays low.
It's not going to happen though since today sanctions against Iran is at an all time high (I believe more than 6000 at this point) while the foreign trade and government revenue is also at an ATH (in at least past 10 years).

So in this new world order, there are two sides. The West has to buy energy at high prices while the East already has a lot of energy and will sell it among themselves at lower prices (eg. China and India buying oil/gas at a big discount).

[hugeblack]

So in this new world order, there are two sides. The West has to buy energy at high prices while the East already has a lot of energy and will sell it among themselves at lower prices (eg. China and India buying oil/gas at a big discount).

The United States is still the biggest beneficiary, as Europe has gradually begun to depend on the United States for energy (for the first time in a while, it was impossible to compete with Russian gas and oil from the Middle East at $50 to $70 prices).

So the current price and any price above $90 is profitable for America and costly for Europe, and the biggest loser is the citizens in both countries, as they will be forced to pay more, which would have been easily avoided with a little political consensus.

[pooya87]

So in this new world order, there are two sides. The West has to buy energy at high prices while the East already has a lot of energy and will sell it among themselves at lower prices (eg. China and India buying oil/gas at a big discount).

The United States is still the biggest beneficiary, as Europe has gradually begun to depend on the United States for energy (for the first time in a while, it was impossible to compete with Russian gas and oil from the Middle East at $50 to $70 prices).

So the current price and any price above $90 is profitable for America and costly for Europe, and the biggest loser is the citizens in both countries, as they will be forced to pay more, which would have been easily avoided with a little political consensus.

US is one of the beneficiaries but not the biggest, and not just because of the energy sales but everything else that they are selling these days like the arms which they sell at a higher price (eg. the useless Patriot system went for 3-4 million, now it is sold for up to $12 million).

In the long run, it could be bad though. On top of the existing inflation and recession in US, if more countries distance themselves from US, like for example if Germany or the Balkans go to the Eastern bloc and significantly decrease their relations with the West, those benefits start looking like nothing.
Not to mention all the capital that exits US for the destination of other countries with cheap energy and labor like India for example. That could significantly increase unemployment and turn more cities/states into Detroit.

[pooya87]

i believe Biden is a very bad administrative
i have started liking the Trump more than Biden. Biden has made so many mistakes already
The wore of all the Removal of armed force form Afghanistan

You seem to have forgotten that one of the reasons why Trump was elected was that he promised to pull out of Afghanistan (and similar wars they were losing). Not to mention that Biden didn't remove armed forces from Afghanistan, they were kicked out. They had to even donate $100 billion worth of weapons and equipment to the cavemen known as Taliban to buy their safe passage while they were escaping.

[Lorence.xD]

I don't think it's a big problem for the US. Especially with today's falling oil prices. Totzhe China can resell, at a cheap price, tighter Russian oil. If Urals today costs $66 per barrel (the spot price!), then China's price is already about $30 per barrel. And to play along with the United States, it is now very profitable for China - well, not to do business with losers ?!

Don't the US get it's oil in the Middle East and don't they have their own oil wells in the country? I'm a little confused as to why their SPR is such a big deal? Can't they just get more so they can replenish the losses in their reserves?

[DrBeer]

Suffering and predictions of the "crash of the US / Dollar / US oil reserves" - I have been listening for 40 years, and before that my parents listened to 50 years
The United States is a country that has the most powerful economy, political influence in the world, a technological sector, and the dollar, which is the blood of the global financial system. And they also have the largest deposits of oil - albeit somewhat more difficult to extract (shale). The fact that the United States has now thrown its strategic reserves on the market is the way to solve the problem that has arisen after Russia unleashed a terrorist war in Ukraine. I am sure that very soon the United States will restore these reserves - at the expense of cheap oil from the country of terror Russia. Why cheap? Because the EU's rejection of Russian oil will lead to a further drop in oil prices, which has already passed the psychological border, and it will only get cheaper further. And the second option - if suddenly (the probability is not zero, and this option should also be considered) the price of oil rises - the United States will immediately resume mass production of shale oil, which has a certain profitability threshold, and with cheap "well" oil it is not competitive.

[justdimin]

I don't think it's a big problem for the US. Especially with today's falling oil prices. Totzhe China can resell, at a cheap price, tighter Russian oil. If Urals today costs $66 per barrel (the spot price!), then China's price is already about $30 per barrel. And to play along with the United States, it is now very profitable for China - well, not to do business with losers ?!

Don't the US get it's oil in the Middle East and don't they have their own oil wells in the country? I'm a little confused as to why their SPR is such a big deal? Can't they just get more so they can replenish the losses in their reserves?

It is, and they do get it cheaper, so much so that they literally take oil out of Saudi Arabia, give them money, but then Saudi Arabia turns back and buys weapons from American companies, making them a profit in the long run. So that oil may not be free, but comes in cheaper than you can imagine, under 40 dollars per barrel, not because that's what they pay, but because they sell something in return to cover the difference, so most of the money stays in their nation.

This is what they should be worried about, it is not something that should be upsetting Americans just yet, the reason why prices are high is the insane profits oil companies are making, not lack of oil.

[pooya87]

It is, and they do get it cheaper, so much so that they literally take oil out of Saudi Arabia, give them money, but then Saudi Arabia turns back and buys weapons from American companies, making them a profit in the long run. So that oil may not be free, but comes in cheaper than you can imagine, under 40 dollars per barrel, not because that's what they pay, but because they sell something in return to cover the difference, so most of the money stays in their nation.

This is what they should be worried about, it is not something that should be upsetting Americans just yet, the reason why prices are high is the insane profits oil companies are making, not lack of oil.

Except that Saudi's oil production has been dramatically decreased after Aramco was hit by the Yemenis resistance so they are not selling as much oil as before. On top of that ever since the failure of the American weapons they bought (like the Patriot system that proved to be completely useless in protecting Aramco or even US bases in Saudi Arabia from being bombed), they started buying weapons from the Chinese and Russians and also sell more oil to the Chinese instead of selling it to US...

[cabron]

^ And so the reason why its been reported the Saudi's is siding with Russia and collaborate for Putin price hike. Can't say its not true but among the OPEC countries, Russia cut just a 4.70% of its oil production. A tiny percentage compared to the other OPEC members.

Rising oil prices could mean inflation remains higher for longer, and add to pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates even more aggressively.

OPEC + decided to cut oil production up to 2% of global oil demand. With so much demand and less supply, we really can expect high prices soon.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/05/oil-opec-imposes-deep-production-cuts-in-a-bid-to-shore-up-prices.html

[zasad@]

i believe Biden is a very bad administrative
i have started liking the Trump more than Biden. Biden has made so many mistakes already
The wore of all the Removal of armed force form Afghanistan

You seem to have forgotten that one of the reasons why Trump was elected was that he promised to pull out of Afghanistan (and similar wars they were losing). Not to mention that Biden didn't remove armed forces from Afghanistan, they were kicked out. They had to even donate $100 billion worth of weapons and equipment to the cavemen known as Taliban to buy their safe passage while they were escaping.

Biden is an old man who falls asleep, greets unseen interlocutors, and does many other things that a US president shouldn't do. Perhaps he has no chance for the next term, but all the failures in the country's politics can be blamed on him.