SO MANY BLACK SWANS FOR ONE YEAR

[darxiaomi]

Well first to all and as far i know most of us are not so old.

SO for the majority of the years i has live, i dont see so many "black swans" like this time.

For anyone who are guessing what its a black swan its an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences.

The MOST big Black Swan of the year was the start of the War in Ukraine with Rusia one of the main powers of the world directly involved.

This develop another Black Swan, the huge jump in Energy cost.

This one trigger another one, the Inflation rises.

And today we still seeing the efects of this Black Swan, its still developing.

But.... How this affect the Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies?.


In a BIG way, nobody spect a bear market in the traditional market and this bear market damage the crypto market because today the two are realted to each other making the bear market in crypto more complicated to solve. (a lot of companies are invested in crypto).

The jump in energy cost , make the mining not so profitable than before. The mining industry its living a really decay and you can see this, browsing not so much,a lot of companies are in bankruptcy.


Can you imagine the ETH for example without the change to PoS?.  A lot of people who put his money in mining can lose his money easily because of:

- LOW price of ETH.
- High and in some cases exponential increase of the cost of energy.

And the most "new" black swan its.....

USDollar being again so strong in the market.

https://twitter.com/tradingview/status/1575111389118595074

Nobody can expect this one year ago.

PS: Yes i know a lot of this things were developing before, but nobody expect to happen this fast or nobody think can really happen no matter what its.


So what can be the next black swan?.

[Anonylz]

It can't be the first time things like this are happening all together. This is the first it happens in our generation,  almost like things are going from bad to worse without anyone knowing how it will all end for things to go back normal.
To me I think the biggest is covid-19,  it literally short the world down on a standstill. Russia-Ukraine war does not have such an impact on the entire world like covid-19. It was a time of history. First in my lifetime I see the power house America with deserted busy roads and places.
Imo, I don't see any other black swan as big as covid-19.

[Hydrogen]

So what can be the next black swan?

It might be deduced by looking at past history.

These types of events are not entirely random. They have come in cycles throughout history. At a time when the majority have forgotten the circumstances and events which led to the previous disaster(s).

The generation gap contributes heavily towards society not learning from the mistakes of our ancestors. Causing the same errors to be repeated over thousands of years of history.

Its hard to imagine how much life can change for the better. Or the worse. Within a short span of time. Many of us have never really seen a drastic adjustment to our own standard of living. Hopefully, we can adapt to our changing circumstances and thrive in spite of them.

That said there are many, many, historical precedents which foreshadow which direction black swans will trend in. Schools made history a boring and useless topic. But there is such a thing as real history. Which can be useful for predicting future events.

[mk4]

So what can be the next black swan?.

Not sure if we can really predict it — as in the first place, a black swan event is something that's very unpredictable/unexpected.

I don't really think the rising inflation is necessarily a "black swan" though. Bitcoiners saw it coming within a mile.

[NeuroticFish]

So what can be the next black swan?.

There are plenty of options, although if I'm thinking they are possible they're not really black swans.

* WW3
* official recession in USA and/or Eurozone
* financial problems in China and possible contagion to EU/US
* outbreak of yet another disease (cholera in UKR or RU? polio in UK?)
* civil war in Iran

Plus, in crypto world, I would not rule out:
* yet another DeFi hack or bankruptcy
* legal problems for Tether or Ripple

PS. ETH price falling as a result of going PoS is not a black swan. The only unexpected part was long ago, when they agreed they go PoS.

[zasad@]

Dear experts, what happened to Covid? Did vaccination help, or did governments stop falsifying mortality statistics because everyone was tired of lying?
Before that, there were many crises in the World and they all ended, only many owners lost their assets, and other people became billionaires.

[hugeblack]

So what can be the next black swan?.

I think that you answered yourself indirectly or your question is illogical, your definition of black swan, it is an unpredictable event and therefore we cannot guess what it will be.

For anyone who are guessing what its a black swan its an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences.

In general, the world has witnessed many rare and frightening events, and people knew how to deal with them, and therefore the only thing that will cause great harm is a global or nuclear war.

[Darker45]

The jump in energy cost , make the mining not so profitable than before. The mining industry its living a really decay and you can see this, browsing not so much,a lot of companies are in bankruptcy.

Would you care to provide us the facts behind this claim? While there are indeed a lot of miners who are probably suffering from the blows of increasing energy cost, I have yet to read news about Bitcoin mining companies declaring bankruptcy.

There are probably a number of them who were forced to prematurely sell their Bitcoin just to continue with their operations, but this doesn't mean miners right now are operating at a loss. As a matter of fact, mining difficulty and the Bitcoin hash rate have been hitting ATHs very recently. And this means only one thing, that Bitcoin mining remains attractive and more players are actually coming in.

[mk4]

The jump in energy cost , make the mining not so profitable than before. The mining industry its living a really decay and you can see this, browsing not so much,a lot of companies are in bankruptcy.

Would you care to provide us the facts behind this claim? While there are indeed a lot of miners who are probably suffering from the blows of increasing energy cost, I have yet to read news about Bitcoin mining companies declaring bankruptcy.

There are probably a number of them who were forced to prematurely sell their Bitcoin just to continue with their operations, but this doesn't mean miners right now are operating at a loss. As a matter of fact, mining difficulty and the Bitcoin hash rate have been hitting ATHs very recently. And this means only one thing, that Bitcoin mining remains attractive and more players are actually coming in.

"The mining industry its living a really decay and you can see this"

Me: *takes a look at mining hashrate*

Uh.. doesn't look so decayed to me.

https://coin.dance/blocks/hashrate

[Lucius]

I wouldn't exactly call the events from the OP a "black swan", because considering the situation from the beginning of the pandemic, it could be expected that everything that resulted from excessive measures to protect ourselves from a disease that had less than 1% mortality would mean that it all backfires on us in the end.

Also, the war in Ukraine started in 2014 and culminated in 2022, and the fact is that many believed that aggression on this scale would not happen, but some warned all the time about what the consequences of such a war would be, but no one was intelligent enough to understand the message in time. Therefore, more or less everything was predictable, as is what will happen in the future, and it depends on what some senile old man or madman who thinks he is defending Europe from Nazism will do.

Can you imagine the shitcoin for example without the change to PoS?.  A lot of people who put his money in mining can lose his money easily because of:
- LOW price of shitcoin
- High and in some cases exponential increase of the cost of energy.

I corrected you a little, because people who invest in anything must be aware that it can turn into ordinary garbage at any moment. That "merge" was known a long time ago, so anyone could either sell the token, or sell the devices they used to mine it - and all those who didn't do it still believe it's worth being in the game, which I personally call "proof of stupidity" (POS).

[bitbollo]

...
So what can be the next black swan?.
...

A black swan is usually a "dramatic" event that is difficult to predict!

"an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences."

for example, who could ever have hypothesized the arrival of a pandemic capable of "paralyzing the world" and create so many issues for a lot of time!?

As such we can only "get hypothesis" about what the next dramatic event might be... unfortunately there is no shortage of options due the last events and war in Ukraine !

[nara1892]

...
So what can be the next black swan?.
...

A black swan is usually a "dramatic" event that is difficult to predict!

"an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences."

for example, who could ever have hypothesized the arrival of a pandemic capable of "paralyzing the world" and create so many issues for a lot of time!?

As such we can only "get hypothesis" about what the next dramatic event might be... unfortunately there is no shortage of options due the last events and war in Ukraine !

It's really hard to predict when and how something like that could happen although perhaps something similar has happened before. No one can say exactly about it, although it could not say exactly when it will happen. All we can do is anticipate this by preparing everything we need, such as preparing savings or something like that.
it's possible that terrible things happen in the future more than the pandemic you say.

[kryptqnick]

I've just been thinking today about such things. When my life started, it seemed like the most important historic events have already happened, both major bad and major good things. But then some things happened occasionally, and I was like 'okay, surely that's it, and it'll all be boring and normal now'. Then the pandemic hit, and I certainly DID NOT see that coming in my lifetime. All those tests, lockdowns, masks, almost all of my Master's education being online... I thought that surely this is the big thing we'd tell the next generation as something very major and bizarre. And then my country gets fully invaded my an aggressive neighbour, and since then it feels like many things are still possible, and we might be entering the dark times. I've always thought that human progress was a real thing (not the obvious technological progress, but, like, moral progress). Now it feels like that was a misinformed position and a temporary de-escalation, while who knows, maybe the Third World War is just around the corner, and maybe it will even be a nuclear one.

[teosanru]

To be honest only the Ukraine Russia war is the Black swan rest all the repercussions of that. Just as like Covid was a Black swan and fall in petroleum prices was a repercussion of that. Basic thing is that any Black swan has a lot of consequences and after effects and these are all of them. I think on bitcoin they have already shown their effects and won't show anything new at overall level. Infact it's the best time to invest in the market at this time because all the black swans have been accounted for in the price.

[darxiaomi]

First of all thanks for yours opinions. To the people who say a lot of things were developing in the background, yes  i fully agree for taht i put this in my original post.

PS: Yes i know a lot of this things were developing before, but nobody expect to happen this fast or nobody think can really happen no matter what its.


The COVID was the most big change in terms ofpeople and society behaviour for an ammount of time but doesnt change the Geopolitical world.

I wouldn't exactly call the events from the OP a "black swan", because considering the situation from the beginning of the pandemic, it could be expected that everything that resulted from excessive measures to protect ourselves from a disease that had less than 1% mortality would mean that it all backfires on us in the end.

Also, the war in Ukraine started in 2014 and culminated in 2022, and the fact is that many believed that aggression on this scale would not happen, but some warned all the time about

I clearly know that but, its the first time since the cold war we see one of the two power nations making the step forward.

We always heard about a war can come bla bla but that war never comes, but now yes, the war has begun.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

The MOST big Black Swan of the year was the start of the War in Ukraine with Rusia one of the main powers of the world directly involved.

This develop another Black Swan, the huge jump in Energy cost.

No.  I stopped reading after this.  Neither the Ukraine/Russia conflict or...jump in energy cost(?) are black swan events, and I don't think you understand the meaning of that term.  They're not unpredictable or unforeseen events, just ones with an extremely low probability of happening.  

If Putin launched a nuclear strike against the entire world right now, that would qualify.  Aliens coming down from space would as well.

for example, who could ever have hypothesized the arrival of a pandemic capable of "paralyzing the world" and create so many issues for a lot of time!?

My first thought would be the writers of the movie Contagion--but that's only because I can't go back in time to ask the victims of the 1918 influenza pandemic if they saw it coming or not.

[Johnyz]

...
So what can be the next black swan?.
...

A black swan is usually a "dramatic" event that is difficult to predict!

"an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences."

for example, who could ever have hypothesized the arrival of a pandemic capable of "paralyzing the world" and create so many issues for a lot of time!?

As such we can only "get hypothesis" about what the next dramatic event might be... unfortunately there is no shortage of options due the last events and war in Ukraine !

This is why there’s a belief in investing that we should not put all the eggs in one basket because if they do and some egg got broke, all of them will be affected. Diversification is the key to compensate your other investments which is affected by the black swan, this is indeed unpredictable but we can prepare for this and that is what doing of many. There’s a lot of bad things happening right now, this might be the reason why bear market will last longer, so better to be more ready for a worst case scenario.

[bitbollo]

...

for example, who could ever have hypothesized the arrival of a pandemic capable of "paralyzing the world" and create so many issues for a lot of time!?

My first thought would be the writers of the movie Contagion--but that's only because I can't go back in time to ask the victims of the 1918 influenza pandemic if they saw it coming or not.

scientists and virologists had been monitoring many corona-viruses for years because they were supposed to have a catastrophic effect (avian and swine flu were a sort of "prodome").
However, it is almost impossible to hypothesize a pathology with such devastating effects at every level.

And this is what worries me a little ... an events that could occur "something possible" but of which we cannot clearly grasp the "complexity and magnitude" of its effect.

[Mauser]

And the most "new" black swan its.....

USDollar being again so strong in the market.

You are right that 2022 is a very unpredictable year with a lot of extreme events. But so far the world is still holding it together and trying to move on. If you had asked me last year I would have said inflation was way too low for the long period of low interest rates. And now with double digit inflation rates, it's way too high. Hopefully next year things will go to normality again. I wouldn't call the high USD a black swan event, because there are two ways to look at it. First is the high dollar, but this also happens due to weakness in the other currencies. The Euro is screwed because of the energy crisis from the Russian embargoes, and many emerging markets are also screwed because of higher food prices and higher oil prices. It's the relativity to other countries that makes USA so strong right now.
The next big black swan event that could make everything worse and send the whole world in crisis would be if China invades Taiwan. The probabilities for it to happen are not so high, but with everything going on this year we might underestimate that risk.

[Nhazwrath]

Not so young here and Most of this year was completely predictable.  Some of us have been predicting this for years.

My next few statements are pale descriptions of the depth of knowledge in each one.  No one wants to read giant walls of text so those are simplified.

Start paying attention to what conservatives have to say instead of what the media wants you to think conservatives have to say. 

Read some history, humans tend to think in short terms. Once you start seeing the larger patterns in the histories, the repetitions you start seeing tend to have similar causes.  Don't Ignore the major holy books.  No I'm Not religious But those books are direct views on the human psyche and descriptions on how and why things go wrong.

Humanity likes to think that it has little or no instincts and is in control of itself most of the time.  This is utter Bullcrap.  We have many instincts, most of which we are very unaware of, which is one of the many reasons people are so easily lead around by the nose.  People with more knowledge of how your operating system works can drag you around without much trouble.   

Being aware of how you yourself works Will Not make you a better person But it will make you less foolish.

BTC is Literally the prediction that the dollar has got problems. How long ago was that again?   Many conservatives said these problems would happen  BEFORE the gold standard was dropped in the 70's.