Take shelter, a storm is coming in October.

[Poker Player]

The current economic situation is the most similar to the 2007 crisis since Bitcoin was created, but well into October, which is a traditionally bad month for the market, we seem to be going from bad to worse.

Let's recap.

1) This week the BoE had to intervene to save pensions:

Pension fund panic led to Bank of England’s emergency intervention: Here’s what you need to know

"LONDON – The Bank of England launched a historic intervention to stabilize the U.K. economy, announcing a two-week purchase program for long-dated bonds and delaying its planned gilt sales until the end of October.

The move came after a massive sell-off in U.K. government bonds — known as “gilts” — following the new government’s fiscal policy announcements Friday. The policies included large swathes of unfunded tax cuts that have drawn global criticism, and also saw the pound fall to an all-time low against the dollar on Monday."

2) There are growing rumors of a major European bank going banrupt. Two are the main candidates:

Credit Suisse Is in Deep Trouble

"The No. 2 Swiss bank and one of the largest banks in the world is in deep trouble and is currently fighting for its survival. A negative outcome is likely to cause a shock similar to that caused by the bankruptcy of the U.S. bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008. This event triggered one of the most serious financial and economic crises since the Great Depression."

'Trading Like a Lehman Moment’ — Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Suffer From Distressed Valuations as the Banks’ Credit Default Insurance Nears 2008 Levels

3) China strikes back against the dollar:

Exclusive: China's state banks told to stock up for yuan intervention

"HONG KONG, Sept 29 (Reuters) - China's central bank has asked major state-owned banks to be prepared to sell dollars for the local unit in offshore markets as it steps up efforts to stem the yuan's descent, four sources with knowledge of the matter said.

State banks were told to ask their offshore branches, including those based in Hong Kong, New York and London, to review their holdings of the offshore yuan and ensure U.S. dollar reserves are ready to be deployed, three of the sources, who declined to be identified, told Reuters.

The simultaneous selling of dollars and buying of yuan could put a floor under the Chinese currency, which has lost more than 11% to the dollar so far this year and looks set for its biggest annual loss since 1994, when China unified its official and market rates.

The scale of this round of dollar selling to defend the weakening yuan will be rather big, one of the sources said."

4)Probably related to this point above, and others, there is an emergency Fed meeting tomorrow.

Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022

5)The war in Ukraine continues, with veiled threats from Russia to use nuclear weapons and private response at the highest level from the US saying that if that happens they will respond.

I am opening this thread so that we can comment on these and other issues that will happen in October.

[pooya87]

The saddest part is that all these crisis have a simple solution, for EU countries to start regaining their independence and to normalize their relations with the Eastern Bloc while NATO stops expanding eastward and promises to stop escalating.
For now US orders them to jump and Europeans ask how high.

Obviously they don't seem to want to do that so things are going to continue getting worse. Energy crisis, Economic crisis, Food crisis, Drug wars and looming threat of nuclear annihilation is going to be the "new normal".

[NeuroticFish]

1. You've come with quite a number of topics. While it can be indeed the big picture on the recession that may be about to start, it can attract a lot of trolls, especially on the last point.

2. Indeed, Twitter is full "Credit Suisse is about to fall" and some unsettling news on China too. And the "perfect storm" needs more points to start from. However, while you added the war as an important point, the energy war that's also going on seems to be missing, although it's most probably the main cause for some of the problems listed.

3. The energy war that came after the COVID crisis made the inflation go over the roof. Well, the politicians' actions as answer to those events/threats has created the inflation, but this is where we stand now. BoE is just one of the many that will have to step in and do something while they still can; I don't see it as part of the recession, I see it part of the patching that's going on everywhere in a desperate attempt to prevent what's worse.

[Marvell1]

2) There are growing rumors of a major European bank going banrupt. Two are the main candidates:

Credit Suisse Is in Deep Trouble

"The No. 2 Swiss bank and one of the largest banks in the world is in deep trouble and is currently fighting for its survival. A negative outcome is likely to cause a shock similar to that caused by the bankruptcy of the U.S. bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008. This event triggered one of the most serious financial and economic crises since the Great Depression."

'Trading Like a Lehman Moment’ — Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Suffer From Distressed Valuations as the Banks’ Credit Default Insurance Nears 2008 Levels

I also saw this news today, it is flooding on twitter as well as other social networks. Although this is just a rumor and there is no further information yet, if this happens, it will be the most terrible thing in the history of world economics and financials. During the 2007 crisis, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers led to a domino effect of mass bankruptcies in the financial industry and at that time Lehman Brothers was valued at 600 billion. Currently, the valuation of Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank is estimated at 2800 billion, 4.6 times higher than Lehman Brothers. If both go bankrupt, then it can be said that nothing will be worse for the current economy.

[stompix]

2) There are growing rumors of a major European bank going banrupt. Two are the main candidates:
'Trading Like a Lehman Moment’ — Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Suffer From Distressed Valuations as the Banks’ Credit Default Insurance Nears 2008 Levels

It reminds me of the zerohedge titles through the years:

The Elephant In The Room: Deutsche Bank's $75 Trillion In Derivatives Is 20 Times Greater Than German GDP
NY Fed Slams Deutsche Bank (And Its €55 Trillion In Derivatives): Accuses It Of "Significant Operational Risk"
Investigating Deutsche Bank’s €21 Trillion Derivative Casino In Wake Of Admission It Rigged Gold And Silver

Ten years later, DB is still there but it's going to die again, cause..    things

3) China strikes back against the dollar:
Exclusive: China's state banks told to stock up for yuan intervention

That's not a strike, it's calling mommy for help, the Yuan has fallen to the levels of 2008 against the dollar and they can't stop it from going even down despite telling everyone not to panic, don't buy $, don't try to get your wealth out the country!
So they are going to dump their reserve $ in order to keep the yuan afloat, because, yeah, it has worked wonders in the past, from the Bank of England to Venezuela to Zimbabwe!

[coolcoinz]

The current economic situation is the most similar to the 2007 crisis since Bitcoin was created, but well into October, which is a traditionally bad month for the market, we seem to be going from bad to worse.

Do you have anything to support this theory?
I have something to support mine, which is that you're making shit up.



As you can see, historically October is one of the best months for bitcoin.
It doesn't say much because each year is different and after 5 green years we finally had a red February in 2020. That said, if we're into months, let's be factual and not try to make it look worse than it is.

[HeRetiK]

The global economy is fucked but short of nukes flying it's going to recover eventually. Heck, even if the nukes start flying it'll recover eventually. Except then it's the least of our problems.

In my opinion all of the points by OP, except for the last one, are symptoms rather than causes of economic issues. At the heart it's mostly the supply chains still reeling from the aftermath of the pandemic, aggrevated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The asset market was already overheated pre-pandemic, so it's no wonder everything falls apart now that there's a crisis on top of a crisis. But give it one or two years and markets will stabilize again. Unless, of course, the next crisis hits. But short of that it's probably best to sit back, take your eyes off the charts for a minute and wait for it all to blow over.

[Yatsan]

Economic crises seems to be bottomless at this point, if I would be asked, one factor which affects continuous increase with the things being sold to the market, us simply demand triggered by bigger number of population nowadays. More consumers means less resources, right? So I guess this is valid but feel free to correct me anyway. I've connected it to real world situation because what happens on a daily basis, also affect the prices of cryptos. Patterns on the other hand are not hundred percent reliable, it is just a guide and being prepared for the "possible" downfall, would be really advisable always.

[Lucius]

I will only say that there are so many problems that it is very easy to create a narrative that something very bad will happen, and I will say that nothing will have such devastating consequences as the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. Of course, we are not talking about strategic nuclear weapons here, but rather tactical ones that would be used to attack Ukrainian troops or destroy Kiev as an attempt to force Ukraine to surrender.

The US was very clear about this, which in translation would mean that NATO would retaliate without any hesitation with conventional weapons against all Russian targets in Ukraine, but possibly also against any target from which such weapons were fired, which would include Russian territory. I think that in that case we are talking about the beginning of the third world war, and that in that case collapse of big European bank or the Chinese rescue of the national currency looks quite harmless.

It reminds me of the zerohedge titles through the years:

The Elephant In The Room: Deutsche Bank's $75 Trillion In Derivatives Is 20 Times Greater Than German GDP
NY Fed Slams Deutsche Bank (And Its €55 Trillion In Derivatives): Accuses It Of "Significant Operational Risk"
Investigating Deutsche Bank’s €21 Trillion Derivative Casino In Wake Of Admission It Rigged Gold And Silver

Ten years later, DB is still there but it's going to die again, cause..    things

I read the article and one part is on the trail of what you wrote, and it seems that CS and DB are playing the role of a potential financial bomb whenever the conditions for it are created. Maybe this time is different, but I would like it to be in the style of the saying that is popular in my area "the hills shook, and a mouse was born".

“Since 2008, once a year Credit Suisse [and] once in [two] years Deutsche bank is about to default,” Chadha tweeted. “In Every correction – this speculation starts coming. In my little experience- A black swan event never announces itself.”

[Fivestar4everMVP]

We all clamor for a perfect world with a perfect economy, but unfortunately, there will never be a world as such, not while we have greedy and selfish people heading the affairs of the world.
I have grown to a point where nothing surprises me anymore, a person can come to me and say "some parts of the world is crashing" and my answer would be "oh, is it happening already?, where is it happening this time?".

Taking shelter isn't a long term solution if you ask me, we as individuals have to learn to live an adjustable/adaptable lifestyle, what do I mean by this?
It is a kind of lifestyle that gives us the ability to easily adjust and adapt to any kind of life the economy of the world throws at us, this makes bearing every situation easier, rather than allowing ourselves to get caught up in the wind.

[Poker Player]

The saddest part is that all these crisis have a simple solution, for EU countries to start regaining their independence and to normalize their relations with the Eastern Bloc while NATO stops expanding eastward and promises to stop escalating.
For now US orders them to jump and Europeans ask how high.

Obviously they don't seem to want to do that so things are going to continue getting worse. Energy crisis, Economic crisis, Food crisis, Drug wars and looming threat of nuclear annihilation is going to be the "new normal".

As the situation stands, I don't think it will happen, but provided we don't all die in a nuclear holocaust, I think Europe will lose a lot, as you say.

1. You've come with quite a number of topics. While it can be indeed the big picture on the recession that may be about to start, it can attract a lot of trolls, especially on the last point.

I don't think so, but if so, depending on what they write, I will report them. Genuine trolls are usually on the P&S board.

It reminds me of the zerohedge titles through the years:

The Elephant In The Room: Deutsche Bank's $75 Trillion In Derivatives Is 20 Times Greater Than German GDP
NY Fed Slams Deutsche Bank (And Its €55 Trillion In Derivatives): Accuses It Of "Significant Operational Risk"
Investigating Deutsche Bank’s €21 Trillion Derivative Casino In Wake Of Admission It Rigged Gold And Silver

Ten years later, DB is still there but it's going to die again, cause..    things

Talk of a possible Lehman bankruptcy or a real estate bubble bursting also provoked laughter not so long ago. Do I remind you how that turned out?

On the other hand, DB has lost 75% of its stock market value in the last 10 years. A sign that it is not very buoyant despite having had an open bar from the ECB.

I will only say that there are so many problems that it is very easy to create a narrative that something very bad will happen, and I will say that nothing will have such devastating consequences as the use of nuclear weapons by Russia.

Agree. If the situation escalates, you never know how it might end, and escalating with atomic bombs can make worries about the economy a trifle.

We all clamor for a perfect world with a perfect economy, but unfortunately, there will never be a world as such, not while we have greedy and selfish people heading the affairs of the world.

I agree. There are many political systems that in theory work perfectly. It is when humans go on to try to implement them that they fail. All of them. Every time. Because we are imperfect.

[pooya87]

As the situation stands, I don't think it will happen, but provided we don't all die in a nuclear holocaust, I think Europe will lose a lot, as you say.

A while ago an analyst described Europe as that majestic white mare that has a broken leg and while it is on the ground it is surrounded by bears, eagles, lions, even jackals. They are all showing their teeth and claws...
With every passing day, this description looks more real.

[stompix]

Talk of a possible Lehman bankruptcy or a real estate bubble bursting also provoked laughter not so long ago. Do I remind you how that turned out?

Even a broken clock is right, or how one of the users here said:

Same goes for Zerohedge, the site that predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions.

If you keep chanting every month that a crisis will come and you live enough you might see one, if you're unlucky like my grandparents who learned every day the US evil empire will fall, you might, well, not see it in your lifetime. Do you know what amuses me the most? The thing that people here who all the time are laughing about Bitcoin obituaries make the same mistake again when looking at the other markets, I said it, the only thing that died more times than BTC in the last 10 years is the $, and as you can see..

I read the article and one part is on the trail of what you wrote, and it seems that CS and DB are playing the role of a potential financial bomb whenever the conditions for it are created. Maybe this time is different, but I would like it to be in the style of the saying that is popular in my area "the hills shook, and a mouse was born".

“Since 2008, once a year Credit Suisse [and] once in [two] years Deutsche bank is about to default,” Chadha tweeted. “In Every correction – this speculation starts coming. In my little experience- A black swan event never announces itself.”

Exactly, just to line this with the above-mentioned crisis, the real one is catching everyone but a few by surprise, those that make it over twitter one year before it happens are as accurate as shit! DB has collapsed a hundred times, CS the same, let's not even mention JPM, how many have been burned by shorting Tesla (mentioning this because I know how much you like the guy  ), and many many others.
Of course, at one point it will happen, but this monthly doom is really getting boring so, bring it already!

[Fortify]

The current economic situation is the most similar to the 2007 crisis since Bitcoin was created, but well into October, which is a traditionally bad month for the market, we seem to be going from bad to worse.

I am opening this thread so that we can comment on these and other issues that will happen in October.

Trying to predict the next economic crisis is pretty futile, but like you say there is a lot of nasty stuff happening right now. People have been calling a recession for a while now and a slow one could be unfolding right now. The US and UK are showing a lot of technical indicators in that direction, but damaging inflation is also yet to set in fully for some countries. There will be an energy crisis unfolding in Europe throughout the winter along and mortgage rates shooting up is going to be painful for a lot of people when it comes to renewal time. Collectively it is going to get worse, the job market is buoyant right now but recessions cause a vicious spiral of cutbacks which ripple through the whole economy in unexpected ways.

[iv4n]

The saddest part is that all these crisis have a simple solution...

Yes, they have, but with "simple solutions" there wouldn't be enough space for corruption and stealing. Like this it's just "1984", it's easier to rule the people if you keep them in dark, constantly afraid... I don't watch TV at home, but when I catch something (usually when I go somewhere I watch what others choose) I see so big loads of crap that it's unexplainable! Complete brainwashing, with "experts" of all kinds and their "arguments"!

Well, "the shit show goes on"... and I guess it's the same as always, we either find a way and survive or not!

[bocyaj]

Being a strong heart person to face the bearish crypto market now.Selling of governments bonds was increase the money flow among the governments.So we expects some good flow among the people by the schemes.They also make some changes in the flow of money to the crypto trading by the people due to the excess money among the traders and exchanges.If nuclear will exploid,it will impact the world economy for sure.

[DrBeer]

The saddest part is that all these crisis have a simple solution, for EU countries to start regaining their independence and to normalize their relations with the Eastern Bloc while NATO stops expanding eastward and promises to stop escalating.
For now US orders them to jump and Europeans ask how high.

Obviously they don't seem to want to do that so things are going to continue getting worse. Energy crisis, Economic crisis, Food crisis, Drug wars and looming threat of nuclear annihilation is going to be the "new normal".

Advice from the field of medicine - "If you hug the homeless and don't wash your hands after that, and your stomach starts to hurt - drink water from puddles and eat from landfills, especially rotten food"
I'm sure - in the word "east" you mean precisely ruZZia! And explain - what is the point of improving relations with a loser, a terrorist, and a country whose word is worth nothing?

[adaseb]

The Credit Susise situation is very strange. Basically alot of panic was created over the weekend. Many sellers started to sell the SP500 when trading started in Asian. And when CS started to trade it tanked but it ended the day positive.

Seems that it was a massive bear trap pretty much. If the bank was in trouble shouldn't the stock tank ? But instead it rallies? Wonder how many people shorted it at the open or bought puts and are facing huge losses. Alot of manipulations in the markets going on.

[Ultegra134]

The global economy is fucked but short of nukes flying it's going to recover eventually. Heck, even if the nukes start flying it'll recover eventually. Except then it's the least of our problems.

In my opinion all of the points by OP, except for the last one, are symptoms rather than causes of economic issues. At the heart it's mostly the supply chains still reeling from the aftermath of the pandemic, aggrevated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The asset market was already overheated pre-pandemic, so it's no wonder everything falls apart now that there's a crisis on top of a crisis. But give it one or two years and markets will stabilize again. Unless, of course, the next crisis hits. But short of that it's probably best to sit back, take your eyes off the charts for a minute and wait for it all to blow over.

And this is only the beginning. The failure of the stock and crypto market could soon be the least of our worries. In the past few years, we've been hit by multiple crises again and again. First Covid-19, then the Ukrainian-Russian war, and who knows what else the future beholds. Economies eventually recover, but I believe that we should focus on Russia's threats regarding nuclear weapons. In my opinion, we're standing on a thin line, but we're yet to realize it. I'm hoping that when we do, it won't be too late. Things aren't looking too great for Russia right now, while it's been claimed to even mobilize teenagers and the elderly on a suicide mission against Ukraine.

If a single nuke were launched from Russia, it would spark a series of disastrous events for all of us. A larger scale war would break out while we'd be exchanging nukes against each other.

[Mate2237]

Base on previous predictions I was thinking that October would be the month bitcoin would rise up because the predictions said, bitcoin will rise up before the end of this year, 2021. And also from the previous years September was used as the worst month but its like this year is going to be different. My thinking now would be diverted to the worst so that it would not come as a surprise.
In no 1, pension fund is always a problem in some countries... bank of England can not do anything because pension matter is not today's matter, even though they (Bank of England) key into the matter without the government instruction.
No 2. The great depression was one of the worst economic disaster period in Europe in the year 1929. Industries and farm lands were destroyed by the wind. Any country that faces backruptcy should take a drastic step to stop it before it becomes too late.
No 3, dollar is one of the issues (problem) countries face in the world inflation- If China can handle of maintain the strike against dollar their economy will be one of the best economy in the world.
No 5, US might join the war if Russia strikes the major cities...and that might lead to world war.