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Symmetrick (OP)
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October 04, 2022, 10:06:13 PM
Last edit: November 30, 2023, 12:07:03 AM by Symmetrick
Merited by vapourminer (1), NeuroticFish (1)
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October 04, 2022, 10:45:42 PM
 #2


What are your expectations for the end of this year? In what price zone do you expect this year to close?
Hopefully it would be already green for the last quarter or few months of this year.If we do look on the technical aspect then it had already formed that descending triangle which we could really presume
out that this might be the bottom line for possible reversal or change trend but we cant really be always sure and do still have those doubts.Even myself doesnt really expect nor being that too hopeful
when it comes to this because you cant really be able to tell if the price would be making out that breakout on that strong support.
Expect the unexpected as always and the most important is placing up yourself on the bottom, if not then do DCA as always.

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October 04, 2022, 11:55:56 PM
Last edit: June 11, 2023, 11:36:25 PM by STT
 #3

This whole year has been a revision of prior pricing from the very top top back to the lows.  The only thing to debate now is have we finished the lowest prices or does it need to explore all of the prices in the teens before we are done.   
  I do think we can end the year higher at green if not a large magnitude move but I wouldnt want to bet on it until I see this next move complete or fail.  This is the 50 day average, I just need to see us trade above it convincingly for some time then I believe the whole quarter will be green and that too will be a confirmation of price action.  Ultimately we benefit from BTC being more solid and sure of its own pricing under stress not just hype, buyers who leave etc.



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October 05, 2022, 01:31:03 AM
 #4

What are your expectations for the end of this year? In what price zone do you expect this year to close?
I think on Months of November and December it will start to bounce. Based on the past, these are the months that usually go up. Im noy expert on technical analysis but basic graph shows that its on consolidation and there will come a time it needs to break those hard resistance that weve been seeing these past few months. Of course Im not sure but accumulating now is good while everything is down. Well Im hoping for a good time it could recover and if not this year maybe in the next 2 yrs prior to bitcoin halving.

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October 05, 2022, 01:51:42 AM
 #5

What are your expectations for the end of this year? In what price zone do you expect this year to close?

Probably just the same as the previous bear market of 2018-2019, not that much run, but probably just above $20k.

In December we might see an attempt to move at $25-$30k, but we might failed after several attempts and end the year around $20k-$22k.
And I don't see any lower lows, so it's good at least because there is a prediction that we might feel to a new floor price. But the price seems to be stabilizing just above $20k and this might be the case up to the end of the year.

R


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October 05, 2022, 02:31:48 AM
 #6

I believe that what would happen with the price in the short term is it would still stay in the range of 13500 ~ 16000. A lot of people might be expecting that there would be a bull run since it's the holiday season, and a lot of people would have money. With the end of the year, it could still be in the 20k range or maybe lower.

It's not supposed to be a big deal to have consecutive quarters on the red since it happened with the green. It can occur in the red as well. It's optimistic to see it in the longer term, but it wouldn't be for a short time.

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October 05, 2022, 02:35:32 AM
 #7

I don't expect that the entire four quarters of 2022 would all be in red. That would be too much. The first three quarters, they could be expected as the macro conditions of the whole global economy are in bad form thanks to the pandemic and all the economic response of countries. It definitely doesn't help that Russia attacks Ukraine and causes instability to the whole of Europe and even the rest of the world. But things are getting better now. So I'd expect Bitcoin to get better as well. Also October and even December are good months for Bitcoin. We will see if they repeat this time.
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October 05, 2022, 06:28:32 AM
 #8

It is quite surprising that the first three quarters this year all closed with the bears prevailing, but the first and the third quarters were not that volatile, but the second quarter was very volatile. When I calculated the three volatility, not up to 50%, not up to those of the previous times, this still make me want to believe that we still have the best year of less volatility if compared to other years.

Fourth quarter is much more in favour of the bulls, but the low volatility still make me to be confused. Where bitcoin price is for now, it is confusing if the market may fall or not, maybe the consolidation would be at lesser price around $10000 to $15000, or if the price will increase or not.

But what I think about this is that the price of bitcoin may not increase above $30000 until next year. If not increase to that price till next year, that means we may begin next year with bull run that can increase bitcoin price up to half of all-time-high which is around $35000 or slightly more.

Nonetheless, it is good to hold now.

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October 05, 2022, 06:43:34 AM
 #9

Q3 2022 closed in the red zone. 2022 was the first year with 3 consecutive red quarters:

Well, if you count the quarters in the same year, you're right. Still, Q3/2014,Q4/2014,Q1/2015 for example were also consecutive red and, if we look like that even 4 consecutive red quarters did happen.
Plus, these 3 months were not as bad (in percent) like the 2018-2019 reds.

What are your expectations for the end of this year? In what price zone do you expect this year to close?

30-35k is a good range for the end of the year. Even maybe a bit optimistic.
I expect the bear market end in this Q4 and the price start slowly rise. Depending on how early or late the reversal happens, the price may get to only 25-30k, or to a better 30-35k.

Nonetheless, it is good to hold now.

That's correct. All the charts tell we're in HODL/buy zone (pricewise).

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October 05, 2022, 07:59:34 AM
 #10

An increase of 5% will not change the price much, then 22,000 is enough to end the year with an increase compared to the previous quarter.
Therefore, even the conclusion on a high does not mean a high rise because of all the variables that are happening in the world.
Returning to the 30K levels seems like a dream at the moment due to the huge resistance at the 25K levels.

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October 05, 2022, 11:30:17 AM
 #11


Although this does not mean that there will be a mega-pump at the end of the year, which will give us again prices of 50-60k for 1 bitcoin, there are some chances to close the annual candle in the region of 30-35k. I also do not rule out such a scenario that before breaking above the downtrend, Bitcoin may once again test 17600 or go below this mark.

What are your expectations for the end of this year? In what price zone do you expect this year to close?

I also think BTC will retest below 17600 before pumping upward. If this really happens then it will be for a very short time and many will not be able to buy the dip. There is still negative sentiment going on.

If there are still people who are waiting for the last dip should already buy some because the market could show the opposite action too. Right now it's a cozy and uncertain situation going on in the crypto space because of the fed interest hike and Russia Ukraine war.

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October 05, 2022, 01:22:04 PM
 #12

If the price stops in this range (30-35k), then this will reflect the optimistic mood of bitcoin investors. Huge resistances that were formed this year are concentrated in that zone, and this is a good psychological support for investor sentiment. This optimistic level of 30,000 has been around since last year. 25-30k by the end of the year is also very likely.

Opinions are now actively spreading regarding the fact that the Fed may curtail the rate hike program and this may favorably affect the crypto market.

All this is correct, but... with recession knocking at our door people may not be so much willing to invest in anything, including Bitcoin, no matter how appealing it may look.
And this can affect the price in a bad way even if the bear market ends.

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October 05, 2022, 01:22:16 PM
 #13

I understand the optimism of some who think that Q4 can't also be in the red, but I don't see why it wouldn't happen - after all, we are in a very specific period of high inflation in the midst of a bear market. What is positive is that, despite everything, the price (for now) has not tested any lower levels and that we see some very interesting headlines in various mainstream media where they start to wonder how Bitcoin manages to stay on the surface while everything else sinks into the red.

The longer we keep the current position, the better chances we have of not touching a new bottom, and this also means a better starting position for a new big bull run. Therefore, I expect the price to remain in the range of $18k to maybe a maximum of $25k, but with a very small probability that it will remain stable at the highest level.

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October 05, 2022, 02:48:32 PM
 #14

Although this does not mean that there will be a mega-pump at the end of the year, which will give us again prices of 50-60k for 1 bitcoin. But there are some chances to close the annual candle in the region of 30-35k. I also do not rule out such a scenario that before breaking above the downtrend, Bitcoin may once again test 17600 or go below this mark.

What are your expectations for the end of this year? In what price zone do you expect this year to close?
This kind of situation is not new in the market. A large dept has been seen before any bull run. When you can't find any positive sign about bitcoin you should just wait and hold as much as possible. Bitcoin bullish trends are not always understood. No one knows when it will be bullish and when it will be bearish. However, in this unpredictable situation, following DCA is considered as a good decision.
There has been no major bull run since the beginning of this year till today. Hopefully, the market is likely to be bullish towards the end of the year.

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October 05, 2022, 04:05:51 PM
 #15

Very nice and didatic statistics display. I think another red zone is probable for the Q4, what isn't too bad anyway, because it's preferable to have a red zone for each quadrimester of the year with a low negative fluctuation, than having a positive quadrimester on the middle, but followed by an insane loss of 40% in the last zone, like it happened in 2018. Let's hope bitcoin remains stable, so once this yearly cycle ends, the expectations of the market will be renewed. I believe for this year there isn't a major factor which could trigger btc to 30,000$-35,000$ price levels.

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October 05, 2022, 05:04:07 PM
 #16

Bitcoins will follow it’s previous trends only.
As past 3Qs didn’t show any positive or green in price, so definitely the Q4 will be in red.
Yes Bitcoins might try to break the resistance and come above the struggling price segment, but that’s too hard and too early to predict.
All the Bitcoin holders, no need to panic, once Bitcoins catches it’s pace, it will definitely won’t stop. So don’t lose hope.

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October 05, 2022, 05:48:32 PM
 #17

In some parts of 2022, we have seen some recoveries or greens but mostly we haven't broken 25k and above. I don't know if that is a sign that this whole year was a bear year. Also in some years the price can start positive but eventually it will go negative up until the last quarter so there's a possibility that it will happen again.

Mega pump for me is when the coins breaks their old ATH while 50 to 60k can only be said as a good recovery since btc already experience this level before. The price of 30k and 35k per btc is also not bad. At least some us can sell their btc to celebrate their holidays a little better while I don't expect the price to drop 17.6k anymore.

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October 05, 2022, 06:02:22 PM
 #18

I believe that what would happen with the price in the short term is it would still stay in the range of 13500 ~ 16000. A lot of people might be expecting that there would be a bull run since it's the holiday season, and a lot of people would have money. With the end of the year, it could still be in the 20k range or maybe lower.

It's not supposed to be a big deal to have consecutive quarters on the red since it happened with the green. It can occur in the red as well. It's optimistic to see it in the longer term, but it wouldn't be for a short time.

I don't expect a bull run in this year 2022. This is a bear market year so either the price will remain the same as they are now or we may see another drop to 14-15K as you have mentioned.
However, bitcoin will grow in the future and break its all time high in the coming years, so we need to be optimistic about bitcoin and there is no need to panic sell or get depressed seeing bitcoin dumping more in quarter 4 of this year.

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October 05, 2022, 09:22:08 PM
 #19

An increase of 5% will not change the price much, then 22,000 is enough to end the year with an increase compared to the previous quarter.
Therefore, even the conclusion on a high does not mean a high rise because of all the variables that are happening in the world.
Returning to the 30K levels seems like a dream at the moment due to the huge resistance at the 25K levels.
Yes, maybe $25k is enough for me at least at the end of the year. In the background as you have said there are a lot of factors affecting world economy and it will affect the market as well. So if the world continue to suffer, then the market will be down in the last 3 months with minor price increase to $25k. $30k levels? at least we should have some good news to bring back the life in the market at this price range but I'm not sure if we are going to see something that big that will push it to $30k.

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October 06, 2022, 08:47:12 AM
 #20

This will be enough to close in the green zone. Although in 3 months the price can collapse strongly and quickly recover, for example. Personally, I would be happy to buy bitcoin in the long term at 10-14k if the opportunity presents itself.

The old saying says "Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true", and the price of Bitcoin at such a low level would not only be a good opportunity for investment, but also a serious sign that most investors have started to lose confidence in Bitcoin. In a situation where the price would crash by as much as 50% compared to now, there are many more people who would panic sell, than those who would see it as an opportunity, and we see that with every serious price change.

Now the most we need is the stability that Bitcoin shows in relation to fiat currencies, and if it lasts long enough, maybe it will help to change the perception of the common man who still has a generally bad opinion about Bitcoin.

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