Where do you see the BTC-USD exchange rate in month?

[stakhanov]

With the bitcoin to USD exchange rate falling steadily for one month now, I thought it would be interesting to know what people think about the future.

[kiba]

The price of bitcoin influences my mood but not my outlook.

In my opinion, the price of bitcoin is going to zigzag, go up and down, and so on. As long as new services and goods come into existence, then we will be just fine.

Don't forget that we rose to dollar parity in almost a vertical jump. Before that, we were in the 0.3 to 0.4 range.

[kiba]

Don't also forget that the community grown in the last two month. This is good for the fundamental.

[stakhanov]

Yeah, I'm just like you, I don't think the exchange rate is that important, except for the mood 

But I still think it's interesting to see what people think about its future evolution.

[deadlizard]

the rsi just moved into oversold territory and the candlestick broke out of the Bollinger band
it could still fall to 0.5 but I suspect the turnaround will be dramatic. I'm still adding to my position so to speak
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90ztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gRSI

if you care about the exchange rate keep an eye on http://blog.bitcoinwatch.com/

[Megawatt]

I'll throw a good business idea: the best way for such polls will be bets with bitcoins.

[steelhouse]

No offense but bitcoin is not backed by anything.   There is no government forcing its use.  How can bitcoin go to anywhere but to zero? What would be exciting if a country adopted it for its currency.

[BitterTea]

No offense but bitcoin is not backed by anything.

Neither is gold.

There is no government forcing its use.

You consider this a bad thing?

How can bitcoin go to anywhere but to zero?

Because Bitcoin is becoming more popular, while U.S. government continues to debase the dollar.

[eMansipater]

No offense but bitcoin is not backed by anything.   There is no government forcing its use.  How can bitcoin go to anywhere but to zero? What would be exciting if a country adopted it for its currency.

BitCoin is backed by the community of people who value it and accept it for goods and services.  As long as that community exists, bitcoins will be worth something.  Earlier this week the community successfully absorbed a 30,000+ BTC selloff and had prices back to the pre-sell levels within 48 hours--I'd say the community is doing a pretty darn good job of backing the bitcoin.

[rezin777]

No offense but bitcoin is not backed by anything.   There is no government forcing its use.  How can bitcoin go to anywhere but to zero? What would be exciting if a country adopted it for its currency.

I consider bitcoin to be commodity money in a way. It derives value from it's properties, which are quite useful. As long as there are like-minded people, it will have value.

What would be exiting is if all states were to suddenly disappear!  

[steelhouse]

1. Neither is gold.

2. Because Bitcoin is becoming more popular, while U.S. government continues to debase the dollar.

1. Because gold is backed by gold.  If every bitcoin was backed by an ounce of gold.  Then it could be exchanged to any currency for the going rate of gold.  If it was backed by gold you could get your gold back.

2. According to the chart the bitcoin is presently inflating 50% in 2011, 33% in 2012 and 13% in 2013. But assume all 21 million are out, so what if you are out of the loop why use it.  The only reason to use it is if merchants demanded payment in it.  So I guess I answered my own question, it all depends on whether merchants want to accept it as payment.   Thus, Exxon Mobil tomorrow could demand payment in bitcoin.  But it would only be valid for products that can be mailed or labor over the internet. Thus to make bitcoin successful you need merchants.  All merchants in the USA are required to only accept dollars.

[BitterTea]

1. Because gold is backed by gold.  If every bitcoin was backed by an ounce of gold.  Then it could be exchanged to any currency for the going rate of gold.  If it was backed by gold you could get your gold back.

How can something be backed by itself? Gold is "backed" by the belief that one will be able to exchange gold for the things one needs. Bitcoin is exactly the same.

2. According to the chart the bitcoin is presently inflating 50% in 2011, 33% in 2012 and 13% in 2013. But assume all 21 million are out, so what if you are out of the loop why use it.

There is a finite amount of gold on the earth. Is the continued mining of gold necessary for it to be useful as a currency? No.

The only reason to use it is if merchants demanded payment in it.  So I guess I answered my own question, it all depends on whether merchants want to accept it as payment.   Thus, Exxon Mobil tomorrow could demand payment in bitcoin.  But it would only be valid for products that can be mailed or labor over the internet. Thus to make bitcoin successful you need merchants.

Yes, this is correct. The thing that makes Bitcoin worth anything is that others are willing to accept it in exchange for goods.

All merchants in the USA are required to only accept dollars.

This is incorrect. The U.S. has legal tender laws, which enshrine the U.S. dollar as the official currency of the government. That means precisely two things:

1) Taxes are paid in USD
2) Courts will enforce contracts in USD

That's it. As a merchant, you are free to accept any payment method you want. As a creditor, your debts will only be honored by courts if you allow your debtors to repay in USD.

[steelhouse]

This is incorrect. The U.S. has legal tender laws, which enshrine the U.S. dollar as the official currency of the government. That means precisely two things:

1) Taxes are paid in USD
2) Courts will enforce contracts in USD

That's it. As a merchant, you are free to accept any payment method you want. As a creditor, your debts will only be honored by courts if you allow your debtors to repay in USD.

I highly doubt that, if you live in California you can't accept Euros, silver for payment.  If you could no one would use the dollar.

[BitterTea]

I highly doubt that, if you live in California you can't accept Euros, silver for payment.  If you could no one would use the dollar.

It's true. From the treasury site:

The pertinent portion of law that applies to your question is the Coinage Act of 1965, specifically Section 31 U.S.C. 5103, entitled "Legal tender," which states: "United States coins and currency (including Federal reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal reserve banks and national banks) are legal tender for all debts, public charges, taxes, and dues."
...
This statute means that all United States money as identified above are a valid and legal offer of payment for debts when tendered to a creditor. There is, however, no Federal statute mandating that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services.

The dollar is just more convenient than euros. Anyway, it's not like euros are any less fiat...

[error]

Indeed. Canadian dollars are commonly used as far south as Seattle, and USD at least as far north as Vancouver (maybe farther). Quite commonplace.

[MoonShadow]

I highly doubt that, if you live in California you can't accept Euros, silver for payment.  If you could no one would use the dollar.

It's true. From the treasury site:

The pertinent portion of law that applies to your question is the Coinage Act of 1965, specifically Section 31 U.S.C. 5103, entitled "Legal tender," which states: "United States coins and currency (including Federal reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal reserve banks and national banks) are legal tender for all debts, public charges, taxes, and dues."
...
This statute means that all United States money as identified above are a valid and legal offer of payment for debts when tendered to a creditor. There is, however, no Federal statute mandating that a private business, a person or an organization must accept currency or coins as for payment for goods and/or services.

Case law, however, does exist that basicly means that if US$ were offered in settlement of debts, but were rejected because of a contract that required some other form of settlement, any court will hold that debt as void.

So, in practice, any business that allows a customer to acrue a debt first (as an example, a sit-down resturant, where you eat first and pay on the way out) must accept US$ as payment of that debt, even if they had a huge sign on the way in that said, "No gold or silver, no service".

I've used this to my advantage in the past, as I don't use credit cards.  I had reserved a particular tool from Home Depot's tool shop, and went in to rent the item.  Advance reservation is free, unless you cancel, so they didn't ask for anything more than my name and address on the phone when I called.  I went to pick it up, and they asked for a credit card for the security deposit.  The clerk insisted that he couldn't rent me the tool without a credit card, and I said that I was certain that his computer system did have a cash deposit option in theer somewhere, because that was the law.  He ended up calling his manager, and after going through the whole ting again, the manager called some kind of corporate office, who proceeded to tell him how to access that part of the POS system.

I left with the tool, and did not need a card despite their insistance that only a credit card was acceptable.

[steelhouse]

I still don't believe you can open a store in the United States and accept euros, gold, Canadian dollars, bitcoin, as payment or competing currency.  If you could the dollar would be gone tomorrow and everybody would be collecting welfare and doing their real exchange in bitcoin.   Are there any addresses in the United States that accept bitcoin and have no fear of being raided?  I do think bitcoin goofed, if there is no exchange for a commodity, why would anyone use it.  They could have backed bitcoin by 50 pre-1981 pennies, and sold the 21 million off, which imho would always give a merchant to the coin thus it would always have value.  I bet bitcoin goes to $0.01.

[MoonShadow]

I still don't believe you can open a store in the United States and accept euros, gold, Canadian dollars, bitcoin, as payment or competing currency.

Well, they you would be wrong.  Not only is it possible, it's actually done.  It's not common, but a European can offer Euros to a vendor, and the vendor has the right to accept foreign currency, but not the requirement, as settlement of debts.  What is questionable, is whether or not a business with public access can quote prices in foreign currencies; but I'd bet that McDonald's isn't interested in a menu board that displays prices in Euros anyway.

BTW, the founder of the Liberty Dollar was recently convicted of some kind of fraud; but none of the associated businesses that accepted the Liberty Dollar could be charged with anything, nor none that sold same without advertising that fact.  Because a private business could accept payment in live chickens, if they desired.  Private local currencies such as the Ithica Hour depend upon this for their ongoing existance.

EDIT:  Also, I think you might be right about the future price of Bitcoins, and as a show of friendship, I'll pay you triple ($.03) your quote for any of those worthless bitcoins you might have.  This is a limited time offer, however, so hit me before I come to my senses!

[steelhouse]

EDIT:  Also, I think you might be right about the future price of Bitcoins, and as a show of friendship, I'll pay you triple ($.03) your quote for any of those worthless bitcoins you might have.  This is a limited time offer, however, so hit me before I come to my senses!

Will you still provide this offer 10 years from now?  The intrinsic value of a bitcoin is zero, that is where it will go with no iron hand.

[MoonShadow]

EDIT:  Also, I think you might be right about the future price of Bitcoins, and as a show of friendship, I'll pay you triple ($.03) your quote for any of those worthless bitcoins you might have.  This is a limited time offer, however, so hit me before I come to my senses!

Will you still provide this offer 10 years from now?  The intrinsic value of a bitcoin is zero, that is where it will go with no iron hand.

It's a limited term offer.  Jump on it before I take my meds!

BTW  The intrinsic value of every fiat currency on Earth is very near zero, and ever approaching that value in the market itself.  So I would extend my offer to $ and Euros as well.  I'll gladly pay $.05 for every Euro that you possess or .05 Euros for every one of those US Federal Reserve Notes.