2024 Bitcoin Halving - What are Your Expectations!!!

[Bitstar_coin]

                          


                                               What is the Bitcoin Halving (Halvening)?
New bitcoins are issued by the Bitcoin network every 10 minutes. For the first four years of Bitcoin's existence, the number of new bitcoins issued every 10 minutes was 50. Every four years, this number is cut in half.

In 2012, the number of new bitcoins issued every 10 minutes dropped from 50 bitcoins to 25. In 2016, it dropped from 25 to 12.5. In the most recent May 11, 2020 halving, the reward dropped from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC per block.

In the upcoming 2024 halving, the reward will drop from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC.

                                               Bitcoin Halving Dates History
      
         2012 Halving
The 2012 block halving was the first halving and happened on November 28th, 2012. The halving block was mined by SlushPool by someone using a Radeon HD 5800 miner.

New BTC Per Block Before: 50 BTC per block
New BTC Per Block After: 25 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $12.35
Price 150 Days Later: $127.00

       2016 Halving
The second halving occurred on July 9th, 2016.

New BTC Per Block Before: 25 BTC per block
New BTC Per Block After: 12.5 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $650.63
Price 150 Days Later: $758.81

     2020 Halving
The third halving occurred on May 11, 2020.

New BTC Per Block Before: 12.5 BTC per block
New BTC Per Block After: 6.25 BTC per block
Price on Halving Day: $8821.42
Price 150 Days Later: $10,943.00

     Current Bitcoin Block Subsidy
The current Bitcoin block subsidy is 6.25 bitcoins per block. When block 840,000 is hit in 2024, the subsidy will drop to 3.125 bitcoins (BTC) per block.


Source

The next bitcoin halving is less than two years, to me, this period will be different because, for the first time, I really am paying attention to important aspects of btc and keeping myself updated as well.
I can't really say much about previous halving other than just reading about them (probably because I was not holding btc) but now is different because I have been accumulating in every little way I can.

So dear colleagues, What are your expectations? other than price increase  
*Do you expect to see widespread adoption and acceptance?
*More involvement from big companies?
*More popular?
*Increase number of users?
*Any other.......

[swogerino]

I see based on the above history which you made an 150 days approximate that it will go further up and that cannot be stopped in any way.However to make a better comparison it is this one I am going to make below:

Halve of 2012
Price of 1.5 year later end of 2013 1100 dollar from a really low one

Halve of 2016
Price 1.5 year later we had the massive first all time high in December 2017 at 20.000 dollars

Halve of 2020
Price 1.5 year later we had another the biggest all time high in October 2021 at near 68.000 dollars

Based on history now after that halve I expect a huge new all time high.

[buwaytress]

Didn't feel too long ago to me when we had last halving, it definitely doesn't feel too long more to the next one. 3+ BTC per block may seem even "admissible" to miners if you consider how long they've been enjoying and taking profits (and yeah many are supposed to be almost underwater now but still think that's an exaggeration) but it's really on the halving after the next where we should see things get really interesting when only over 1.5 BTC comes every block.

I'll be "old" then, but 100k BTC should be the new conservative hmm?

[hosseinimr93]

Every four years, this number is cut in half.

It's not accurate. The halving occurs every 210,000 blocks which takes roughly 4 years.

New bitcoins are issued by the Bitcoin network every 10 minutes.

This is wrong too.
New bitcoins are generated in every block mined. It's estimated that a new block is mined every 10 minutes on average. A new block may be mined in a few seconds. It's also possible that it takes an hour.

[Bttzed03]

I hope for widespread adoption and dismissal of the usual criticisms (energy, money laundering and other illegal activities, etc.) but I doubt that will happen by 2024. It will probably become another crazy year for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Insane pumps/dumps from recently launched projects, more news on regulations, and bans.

[Sarah Azhari]

         

Why is so much different from the coin market cap? what timezone do you use? 23 days is enough far. I don't know how to calculate, based on what?



https://coinmarketcap.com/halving/bitcoin/

Next halving is block 840,000, block until halving is 82,807, only under 20 blocks different but the day different is too much

 What are your expectations? other than price increase

I have to expect the bitcoin price after halving 2024 is $250K

[hosseinimr93]

Why is so much different from the coin market cap? what timezone do you use? 23 days is enough far. I don't know how to calculate, based on what?

Till now, 757,193 block have been mined and there are 82,807 blocks until the next halving.
Assuming the average block time for these blocks will be exactly 10 minutes, the halving should be 828,070 minutes later which is 575 days, 1 hour and 10 minutes later.
With this assumptions, the halving will be on May, 02, 2024. You see exactly the same date on Coingecko and bitcoinblockhalf.

buybitcoinworldwide (which was used by OP) and coinmarketcap (which was mentioned by you) are using different methods for estimating the halving date.
For example, you can use the average block time of previous halving periods or average block time of the previous difficultly adjustment period.

No one knows the exact date of halving.

[gantez]

I have to expect the bitcoin price after halving 2024 is $250K

If the story of all the past halving will be like this next in 2024 that price will rise, it will be the expectation for profit taking because many are waiting for this to happen. Last halving bull didn't last in my eyes and in my memory just preparing to take out some profit before the crash to $50k and further down continue.

[bitpotter]

Of course I will be very sure this time in 2024 bitcoin will reach more than $200k and more people will be involved in this history. But don't forget that every year there will be FUDs scattered about every year and what you have to watch out for are newbies who are new to the crypto world, they are very vulnerable to mental attacks.

[kryptqnick]

Each time people discuss halving, what often remains forgotten is that there's no proof that halving objectively leads to either a price boost or a dump. In fact, it might not have any impact at all, aside from the FUD or FOMO people might experience before and after, and the price growth often happens months later, which makes it unlikely that it can be reasonably attributed to halving and not some other events.
Even this post shows the price 150 days later (so after a significant amount of time), and the increase is by, like, 15-20% (apart from 2012), which isn't anything that couldn't happen without halving.
I don't have any particular expectations for 2024 event, and I am almost sure we'll see a major price increase of Bitcoin before that because it's still a long time away.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

I don't know what price Bitcoin will make as its new all time high but it is not matter with me. I will take profit at price about two times from 2021 all time high. Then I will wait to buy back when a new bear market comes.

Even if price goes to higher than $120,000, I will not regret and will only wait for 70% to 80% correction from its 2024 or 2025 all time high to re-enter the market.

[Mauser]

*Increase number of users?

This seems like the most predictable outcome after the next halving in my opinion. We all know that prices are going to rise again after the halving in 2024. The bitcoin miners are wanting to be compensated for the reduced mining rate. If prices for bitcoins are not rising after the halving, the miners will just stop bringing new bitcoins to the market. That means that prices have to rise or demand for bitcoins as to fall. It's not realistic to expect a slowdown in bitcoin demand, even now with the World having to deal with so many issues there is still a lot of trading happening in the bitcoin market. I am not sure if we are going to see a new ATH in 2024, but rising prices means that bitcoins become attractive again as investment. And the higher the price rises the more new investors are going to join the market.

[Husires]

Attempting to show it in milliseconds will give a false impression to users because it is impossible to know in milliseconds.

The best that can be obtained is to try to predict the days, as the margin of error can be several days if the difficulty increases, but it is impossible to get a counter down in terms of minutes and hours.

[michellee]

Of course I will be very sure this time in 2024 bitcoin will reach more than $200k and more people will be involved in this history. But don't forget that every year there will be FUDs scattered about every year and what you have to watch out for are newbies who are new to the crypto world, they are very vulnerable to mental attacks.

We don't know if by 2024, bitcoin will reach over $200k or if it will happen because who knows,  the price will rise to as high as you want it to be in the next year. But I think many people still hope to see the next ATH and sell their bitcoins at the highest price.

Negative news about bitcoin will surely accompany its journey, and we must be prepared to face it. But we don't need to be afraid of the negative news because it's not certain to happen. I also expect that ahead of the halving, the bitcoin price will be higher than the last ATH price and maybe over $200k as you said.

[PeRo]

Looking at how it went in the past and how Bitcoin has gained a lot of users, adoption/acceptance is going to be much higher in the next period and up to the next halving. And since Bitcoin is growing older, many more people are interested and accepting it as a profitable asset, so I think we will have a lot of new investors who will want to profit on the expected price pump around the halving.

On the note of the price speculation, I wouldn't really speculate a number since we don't know how will the market hold until the halving. A price increase is inevitable, but we don't know what the current price of that period will even be, it might even be less than expected. Of course, fingers crossed for a huge ATH

[samuraijin]

it is not only important to discuss the increase in bitcoin prices during the halving but also we need the involvement of big companies for bitcoin in the future as well as increasing the adoption of bitcoin widely, many things must be addressed, namely education is also about bitcoin for new people because it is also important to the survival of bitcoin itself

[stompix]

The bitcoin miners are wanting to be compensated for the reduced mining rate. If prices for bitcoins are not rising after the halving, the miners will just stop bringing new bitcoins to the market. That means that prices have to rise or demand for bitcoins as to fall.

Mining doesn't work like that!
If the price doesn't go up then miners who can't make a profit shut down their gears, the hashrate goes down the income for each miner left goes up proportionally to the mount quitting, even with the price not going up. Miners have no way to make the price go up by just mining, if that would have been the case we would simply buy three times the gear that is mining now, and look, the price would have to go up 3x times cause mining is not profitable!

Didn't feel too long ago to me when we had last halving, it definitely doesn't feel too long more to the next one. 3+ BTC per block may seem even "admissible" to miners if you consider how long they've been enjoying and taking profits (and yeah many are supposed to be almost underwater now but still think that's an exaggeration)

It's not an exaggeration, I'm looking at a machine earning 7$ a day (soon $6 the way the hashrate is going)  with free electricity and the same machine going for around $2k on the market, 3 years of ROI with free electricity. Yeah there have been good times in mining, one year ago we were talking about $40 a day for the same machine but think of the future, with this kind of revenue once you have a miner breaking down, do you think of replacing it or you would simply keep with just what you have?

[Tytanowy Janusz]

*Do you expect to see widespread adoption and acceptance?
*More involvement from big companies?
*More popular?
*Increase number of users?
*Any other.......

1.5 year is not that much. Of course we will see improvement in all of above points but it will not be a gamechanger and none of them will depend on halving (which is the point of this thread).

If talking about halving I'm sure that each new halving will have lower fundamental impact on bitcoin value. 4th halving will have negligible impact on value, no one will care about 5th one because:

First halving decreased inflation from 25% to 12%, second halving from 9% to 4,5% third one from 3,8% to 1,9%. So every next halving has weaker fundamental influence on price Fifth halving will decrease inflation from 0.4% to 0.2%. No one will really care that day. No matter if bitcoin inflation is 0.4% or 0.2% its both close to zero compared to 10% CPI.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Milliseconds, seconds, and even minutes can't be accurately calculated at the moment. Even in the last block (or last 2016 blocks), you can't know how much time it will take to finish. Regardless of whether 60 minutes or 60 seconds have passed, the average time to find the next block is 10 minutes.

My expectation is that the price will increase.

[cryptosize]

6 digits easily...

Some people are even more bullish:

https://twitter.com/stackhodler/status/1469038294591754240