Will the Triple Bottom Hold?

[windjc]

Assuming these China rumors get confirmed, we are taking dead aim at $380-$400 price area.  If this holds, we will have formed a triple bottom, which technical lovers like to call extremely bullish.

However, will/would it hold?

We are about $120 above it right now and, if the rumors are true, there is pain coming the markets way over the next 3 weeks.

Exciting time to trade indeed.

[Bit_Happy]

Will the Triple Bottom Hold?

It might not matter.
In late 2011/very early 2012 slightly above $2/btc was a critical point or "we might go under $1"
$2 did not hold.
Do you know what the actual low was for the Bear cycle?

$1.9998 

[Swordsoffreedom]

Well there are really only two directions up or down but I think Bitcoin is in a good position fundamentally with all the services propping up supporting the technology so a value still exists, that or some groups have a lot of coins to offload lol.
Keeples

[redwhite037]

Now that is a good question. Until now I've been convinced that it will hold above the 400 level. But if the chinese are forced to sell by April 15th, then that could drive the price down even more. I have trouble seeing the price go too low, though, because I'm sure most people think 400 is a very good buy price. I'll be getting nervous if the price hits 350 or 300.

[spazzdla]

I have a feeling we might see a massive dip.. balls of steel boys and girls.. hold and buy when things start looking super bad.

[cbutters]

Now that is a good question. Until now I've been convinced that it will hold above the 400 level. But if the chinese are forced to sell by April 15th, then that could drive the price down even more. I have trouble seeing the price go too low, though, because I'm sure most people think 400 is a very good buy price. I'll be getting nervous if the price hits 350 or 300.

But see... the chinese aren't forced to sell... Even if April 15th is real, they can still move or spend their existing coins wherever they want. they could use a bitcoin atm, or just use their coin to trade on a different exchange, or even if they have an international bank account outside of the PBOC, they are fine.

[eboard10]

No, we will most likely visit sub-$400 levels and we may even go all the way down to $250-$300.

[Bit_Happy]

No, we will most likely visit sub-$400 levels and we may even go all the way down to $250-$300.

I do not think so.
If true, the rally starting from $250 will be fast and "Huge". 

[jamesc760]

I believe the PBOC banning bitcoin is true not rumour. There will be blood in the next few weeks.

[MAbtc]

@danv predicting $100-200 level if that fails. I generally have very much respect for his analysis. It could be super beartastic! But still not most probable case at this point...

[chessnut]

If you ask me, from any source, the sentiment is a bull flag. this is the end they say, wait and buy cheap they say.

Seems to me the panic was over yesterday. the decision for the chinese to make over this news is straightforward, there was huge volume yesterday. and the wave exhausted and terminated.

If the price dropped to cerca $100, then the average person such as myself could go out and buy 10 BTC no problem. That is a HUGE share of the currency.

[porcupine87]

@danv predicting $100-200 level if that fails. I generally have very much respect for his analysis. It could be super beartastic! But still not most probable case at this point...

I know. When you think you are right you can just bet the price. But are there something like bets whether someone is right with his analysis or not?
I have inconsistence feelings. On the one hand nearly every prediction about the future ist just wrong or in a "stochastic area"(you could say the pirce goes up 50%, down 50%. So sure, there will be 50% of the prediction be true). On the other hand thos technical analysis guys always boast how much money they made. This might be an overstatement, but likely they really made money and sure, if 1000 people blind guess one or two might be right a few times in a row.

I want to bet that none of your levels (400$, 210$ or 120$) plays a role in the future price. This is like: "So China bans Bitcoin and the US don't see it as currency. So let's see. Last time it was 400$, so now it will be 400$ again. Ah it was 465$ right? This is not a small error. We had no 465$ level. So why did it bottom there this time? Hm-.-..

[windjc]

@danv predicting $100-200 level if that fails. I generally have very much respect for his analysis. It could be super beartastic! But still not most probable case at this point...

I know. When you think you are right you can just bet the price. But are there something like bets whether someone is right with his analysis or not?
I have inconsistence feelings. On the one hand nearly every prediction about the future ist just wrong or in a "stochastic area"(you could say the pirce goes up 50%, down 50%. So sure, there will be 50% of the prediction be true). On the other hand thos technical analysis guys always boast how much money they made. This might be an overstatement, but likely they really made money and sure, if 1000 people blind guess one or two might be right a few times in a row.

I want to bet that none of your levels (400$, 210$ or 120$) plays a role in the future price. This is like: "So China bans Bitcoin and the US don't see it as currency. So let's see. Last time it was 400$, so now it will be 400$ again. Ah it was 465$ right? This is not a small error. We had no 465$ level. So why did it bottom there this time? Hm-.-..

$465 = 300 Daily EMA

[MAbtc]

@danv predicting $100-200 level if that fails. I generally have very much respect for his analysis. It could be super beartastic! But still not most probable case at this point...

I know. When you think you are right you can just bet the price. But are there something like bets whether someone is right with his analysis or not?
I have inconsistence feelings. On the one hand nearly every prediction about the future ist just wrong or in a "stochastic area"(you could say the pirce goes up 50%, down 50%. So sure, there will be 50% of the prediction be true). On the other hand thos technical analysis guys always boast how much money they made. This might be an overstatement, but likely they really made money and sure, if 1000 people blind guess one or two might be right a few times in a row.

I want to bet that none of your levels (400$, 210$ or 120$) plays a role in the future price. This is like: "So China bans Bitcoin and the US don't see it as currency. So let's see. Last time it was 400$, so now it will be 400$ again. Ah it was 465$ right? This is not a small error. We had no 465$ level. So why did it bottom there this time? Hm-.-..

It is not my analysis.

To your last point, I actually called for a bounce at $465-480 in the wall observer thread, but that may be entirely irrelevant to the notion of a mid-term / long-term bottom. We had two fib supports at $476 and $473, so I expected a slight overshoot of those levels.

Still too early for me to say that the bottom is in.

I don't boast about money I've made. But you should be able to look through my calls/charts and determine whether or not I am a winning or losing trader.

[MAbtc]

If you ask me, from any source, the sentiment is a bull flag. this is the end they say, wait and buy cheap they say.

Seems to me the panic was over yesterday. the decision for the chinese to make over this news is straightforward, there was huge volume yesterday. and the wave exhausted and terminated.

If the price dropped to cerca $100, then the average person such as myself could go out and buy 10 BTC no problem. That is a HUGE share of the currency.

I take it wave by wave. I'm long done trying to say "the bottom is in." I don't even care anymore. If we can find volatility, I am pretty happy.

Regarding sentiment, I don't put much weight on that. People said the same thing at 600, 550, 500. And they'll keep saying it. I put more trust in my charts.

And I don't see exhaustion either. Volume doesn't come close to 2-24. Not saying it's impossible that we've hit bottom and won't at least return to re-test 465.

But I don't really see it.

[porcupine87]

$465 = 300 Daily EMA

eh what?


@MAbtc

To your last point, I actually called for a bounce at $465-480 in the wall observer thread, but that may be entirely irrelevant to the notion of a mid-term / long-term bottom. We had two fib supports at $476 and $473, so I expected a slight overshoot of those levels.

But why $465-480?

[MAbtc]

$465 = 300 Daily EMA

eh what?


@MAbtc

To your last point, I actually called for a bounce at $465-480 in the wall observer thread, but that may be entirely irrelevant to the notion of a mid-term / long-term bottom. We had two fib supports at $476 and $473, so I expected a slight overshoot of those levels.

But why $465-480?

I generally expect an overshoot of support. But left the possibility open for undershooting it. You'll miss a good % of the time if you target one price only.