BTC price drops as US inflation reaches 40-Year High

[tomahawk9]

"US Inflation Faster Than Expected in September, Bitcoin Falls"

BTC price 1-Day chart. Source: bitstamp

"The Consumer Price Index – the most widely watched gauge to track inflationary pressure in the U.S. – rose 8.2% in September from the same month a year ago, slightly higher than the 8.1% forecasted by economists. The index rose 0.4% from August."

Last time I made a thread about the increase in the U.S. consumer prices and its impact on the crypto market was in June, we saw the same behaviour in the market

[buwaytress]

Ah, so that's what happened. Out all day and as usual sneaked a look at price, couldn't immediately say if it was more market news or a delayed reaction from yesterday when there were stock selloffs in Asia.

More pain to come, interest rates not going to let up. BTC still surprisingly resistant though, no?

[pawanjain]

This was quite expected though. The money printing machine can't get enough with the printing. Increase in inflation rate was an obvious thing.
People I know already predicted that bitcoin price will decrease as soon as the CPI rates are out.
Panic selling will halt soon though. I don't think this will have a long term impact on bitcoin's price.
I "hope" this is the bottom and we do need a correction which bounces back bitcoin price above $20k.

[Zanab247]

I guess, this inflation is not only  affecting US economy alone but is also affecting others countries of the world economy, and according to economist researchers, next year inflation will be more higher than what we are experiencing now, which US inflation will increase to 50, and some digital currency will also experience the effect too. I don't think, if this inflation that is affecting other countries economy will also affect Bitcoin price, because during the pandemic Bitcoin price was pumping massively to allow investors to earn well from their investment, but since heavy inflation appear in the land, the price of Bitcoin is depreciating that is making investors to worry if this inflation can also cause Bitcoin price not to pump higher.

[Doan9269]

Obviously we are in October and the bitcoin price is still rotating along the same axis, US inflation may ne getting higher and tougher indeed but that is not what we work on in determining the price for bitcoin or predict more dips to go down below what we are having, if you notice that ever since the incident of US inflation there have been any tangible difference that cause bitcoin to go down beyond the same range it has always been right before now, $17k maybe the lowest for now but on several occasions it has attempted going beyond $20k but on a resistant level, there may not be any tangible difference that will change the current circles within the end of this year with bitcoin price and never expected further low than we've got already.

[coolcoinz]

If you look closely, bitcoin is doing much better than the stock market. We are hitting new lows on indexes, but bitcoin isn't even at its yearly lows.
I've seen Cathy Wood comment on that and she said that it's normal that emerging tech comes on top in late stages of the bear market.

Bottom line is, people see the value in bitcoin and as the inflation goes up it begins to look more like a safe haven than a risk off asset. What looked like the first thing to dump at 60 or 50k is now an opportunity below 20k.

[SquirrelJulietGarden]

US inflation, global inflation are not new things. We can predict how it will happen after the massive printing from central banks over the globe after the pandemic.

It started 2 years ago and we are only witnessing some delayed reports on that problem. How did people think that the USA and other nations won't be in inflationary crisis if the US government printed 40% of money supply within a few months since the pandemic announcement from WHO? Same goes for other countries and their fiat currencies.

Why did people feel panic today, last few months, but not in 2020 or 2021? If they are not panic now and in near future, and if they can hold their Bitcoin, they will be winners in 2023 or 2024.

[spectre71]

Welp, us Americans including myself tend to think myopically about things. We can make rules of engagement here and think it's for the world. I haven't needed it (yet)  but the tax wash is a great tool and mitigates my losses, the man doesn't mind taking my money when I win.

But these things will still be going on all over the world however their government allows. Less the better, no matter how good idea it seems inviting the govt in your life never works out, ever.

[Pierre 2]

I don't think this is a surprise. I was totally expecting coin market crash after their raise in rates. Money printing always comes with many issues. Consider developing economies. They are nearly all crashing to ground. So Bitcoin actually performed better than many options out there. We should not panic, in my opinion. I personally prefer to sell my big Bitcoin inventory, although I think this is gonna be temporary thing.

[bittraffic]

What I don't understand though is that the value of the USD is still high. Is it crashing up?

The inflation could really get worse because of the OPEC decision to cut down the production of oil to 2M barrels a day. Not sure how true it is but it's speculated that US will raise interest again up to 1% also this month. So BTC after all is still affected.

[Hamza2424]

Well, Inflation is not the only problem with the US as you can see the whole world is going through this one. I have covered a topic on BTC and inflation and I won't tag it here. In that topic, I have learned a lot as Inflation cant be controlled for thelong term we need inflation to survive that is a fact too. So point is you need to learn how to deal with inflation.

[hosseinimr93]

tomahawk9, US inflation rate isn't at its 40 year high now.
As you  mentioned in your topic, September annual interest rate was 8.2%. That's 0.1% lower than August annual interest rate and obviously can't be at 40 year high. It was US core inflation rate that reached its 40 year high, not inflation rate. In core inflation rate, food and energy products are excluded.

[Mpamaegbu]

Oh, really. I haven't checked financial news today. Now I know why all trading pairs against the US dollar went haywire upon opening my trading app. The US dollar is taking a severe beating because of that news. However, I'm still confused why the effect is in reverse motion for BTC/USD pair. I know BTC correlates with the British pound (GBP) against the dollar in movement but today it seemed to have gone contrary, digging for the ground.

[teosanru]

Just explain this to me please anyone. How even in a normal scenario will inflation in fiat markets effect bitcoin negatively. I mean if you see fiat market is the biggest competition of Cryptos or you can say Cryptos is the biggest alternative for fiat. If fiat is struggling people will tend to pump their money into crypto which will in turn pump the market. How does it makes the market fall? Also if the inflation will go down how will it benefit the crypto market in that scenario?

[hosseinimr93]

Just explain this to me please anyone. How even in a normal scenario will inflation in fiat markets effect bitcoin negatively.

When inflation rate is high, federal reserve may increase the interest rate to control money supply and decrease the inflation rate.
Given the current high inflation rate, it's expected that federal reserves increase the interest rate by 75 basis points in their next meeting. This is affecting all the markets including bitcoin.

[Mpamaegbu]

Just explain this to me please anyone. How even in a normal scenario will inflation in fiat markets effect bitcoin negatively.

When inflation rate is high, federal reserve may increase the interest rate to control money supply and decrease the inflation rate.
Given the current high inflation rate, it's expected that federal reserves increase the interest rate by 75 basis points in their next meeting. This is affecting all the markets including bitcoin.

Your explanation still doesn't make it any clearer because ordinarily one would expect that people will find a safe haven in Bitcoin or any other financial instrument like gold to hedge against inflation. I've monitored the relationship between Bitcoin/Pounds and Bitcoin/Euro, I discovered that Bitcoin follows the pounds pattern more. That's it goes up or dips whenever pound does the same. Today's movement differs. Perhaps, Bitcoin price will respond and move up like pounds is doing before the end of today.

[Hamza2424]

Just explain this to me please anyone. How even in a normal scenario will inflation in fiat markets effect bitcoin negatively. I mean if you see fiat market is the biggest competition of Cryptos or you can say Cryptos is the biggest alternative for fiat. If fiat is struggling people will tend to pump their money into crypto which will in turn pump the market. How does it makes the market fall? Also if the inflation will go down how will it benefit the crypto market in that scenario?

Bro, your question is the opposite of the current situation as inflation is high that is a good time for the crypto as investors are considering the crypto as the solution, from crypto I am only talking about BTC. Fait is obviously the biggest competition for the BTC as Fait markets own capital and BTC owns whatever you need. Inflation in the Faits is in favor of BTC from a neutral perspective.

[stompix]

Your explanation still doesn't make it any clearer because ordinarily one would expect that people will find a safe haven in Bitcoin or any other financial instrument like gold to hedge against inflation.

Expectation versus reality and now everyone has had a full cycle of 4 months of cold showers of reality

When the fed increases the rates to combat high inflation and there are signs of a possible recession happening people don't rush to these, first because the lower class which is the most affected can't spare the money in the first place, the middle class seek far more secure and guaranteed investments like bonds and the ones that still have money they re already tied in the stocks, so you won't see them selling in a bear market to lose money to drive the price up in a thing that's already in a bear market.
Time for everyone to acknowledge facts, when people are faced with huge bills coming in or with the perspective of losing jobs the last thing they think of is investing the little money they have in some assets that for a lot of them is still quite hard to understand.
Furthermore, if you put money in gold or bitcoin to hedge against inflation, once you're out of money, what do you do? Not taping into your reserves, as that's why you invested in the first place, to have a cushion once your expenses gain the upper hand over the income?

[Beefcake]

Just explain this to me please anyone. How even in a normal scenario will inflation in fiat markets effect bitcoin negatively.

When inflation rate is high, federal reserve may increase the interest rate to control money supply and decrease the inflation rate.
Given the current high inflation rate, it's expected that federal reserves increase the interest rate by 75 basis points in their next meeting. This is affecting all the markets including bitcoin.

Your explanation still doesn't make it any clearer because ordinarily one would expect that people will find a safe haven in Bitcoin or any other financial instrument like gold to hedge against inflation. I've monitored the relationship between Bitcoin/Pounds and Bitcoin/Euro, I discovered that Bitcoin follows the pounds pattern more. That's it goes up or dips whenever pound does the same. Today's movement differs. Perhaps, Bitcoin price will respond and move up like pounds is doing before the end of today.

It has to do with the expansion and contraction of the money supply. Interest rates going down increases the money supply, up has the reverse effect. At least in theory. The stock market almost always goes up when the interest rates go down, and vice versa. See: Alan Greenspan's market manipulation. This wouldn't seem like it should effect bitcoin price, but remember the markets aren't what they used to be. Before institutional investors got involved, retail investors more or less controlled the market. Now we are just a drop in the bucket. So when institutions pull out investments as interest rates rise, this includes bitcoins. This may be because they are investing on margin, or because they see better returns elsewhere where they can get a better %. It gets complicated, and I don't really understand it all, but that is how I understand it.

[melody82]

I don't care about the short term stuff. It's all too complicated anyways. I just like to keep it simple and hold!