Agriculture HODL

[spectre71]

As a farmer this thread is hilarious. Farming is the probably some of the hardest work you will ever do. There are no days off, summer vacations, family days... None. Your sick? so what you must work.

Remember your not making a dime until that crop sells. Many confuse gentleman farming for local markets with true ag, they ain't the same.

This will be unfair to farmers who are living fair enough to survive and to work despite all the hardships just to sustain our food necessities. We can't hold agriculture because it will affect lots of farmers and any job that is related to agriculture. It will also affect he supply and demand which could really lead to food shortages in the future. There are still other ways to earn a profit.

I'm not understanding what you saying, sorry.  What is unfair? Hold ag?

Other ways to earn a profit in farming? It's pretty much the way it's been since the beginning of time. you produce a crop and sell it. It's mostly one shot.

[Rruchi man]

If food shortages and price inflation hit. Agricultural HODL could become a viable business strategy.

Similar to being an early investor in bitcoin. Getting in early on agriculture HODL could be a good investment.

There is wisdom in this because even apart from inflation, a lot of other factors are contributing to food shortages including natural occurring disasters. Recently there is heavy flooding in my country and a lot of farm lands have been affected, this in the long run means that we are expecting food shortage if care is not taken. You can imagine the position that people who have stored up food produce are right now which is at an advantage and to sell at any price which they deem fit. Investment in agriculture is something to really consider especially right now. There is this popular Real Estate saying that I would like to relate to agriculture, "The best time to invest in agriculture was yesterday, the next best time is today for the future".

[bocyaj]

The better way to create a demand is stop or pause the supply.When the demand of certain products increased,it includes the agriculture.We can able to had some good prices for it.Now every where oil demand was increased due the fact,for daily three times we using oil.Then the supply of oil in many country is low.So the government procurement of oil seeds for people is one way of demand.Secondly the foreign country made a startup based on oil in demand country.So like this foreign nation earn more from us using oil.

[KingsDen]

If food shortages and price inflation hit. Agricultural HODL could become a viable business strategy.

Similar to being an early investor in bitcoin. Getting in early on agriculture HODL could be a good investment.

Agriculture is a good profession, it's a profession that gives money and also gives food. But it is not easy, I have been involved in agriculture, there is much expenses in agriculture especially as the inflation is ongoing, the cost of fertilizer, the cost of manure and other equipments is very high, apart from the mentioned above, the cost of man power that is invested in agriculture is much.
However, when the reward starts coming, you will surely smile. Harvest is always very nice and lovely. With the right plan and if you have a piece of land for agriculture it is a profession that is advisable to venture.
In the coming years most countries will surely fall back to agriculture to sustain her economy especially African and Asian countries due to the high inflation.

[Zaguru12]

In the coming years most countries will surely fall back to agriculture to sustain her economy especially African and Asian countries due to the high inflation.

Definitely this is the right time for African countries to invest in agriculture the solely dependance in crude oil mostly Nigeria here has affected the economy. There many states here in Nigeria where Rice farming has been taking into consideration. Since the constant increase in flooding, people have run into Irrigational farming and its encouraging to see government support. A state here in Nigeria exported more than billions of Naira worth of rice. This is encouraging not just for the diversification of economy but it also creates job opportunities.

Although I don't buy the idea of agricultural HODL because it causes increase in price of agricultural produce

[gantez]

It is possible that there is someone in the world who will begin farming this year. Grow and sell a harvest. To produce more next year. Who will possibly become a millionaire through the process. Rising cost of oil and difficulty associated with shipping food products from overseas could all contribute to making it possible.

Rich Farmers in the world

Farming use to be a business where people get profit but I don't know of this time around because people are now looking in the area of oil business, metal and more but neglecting farming that apart from selling the farm products, it provides food for the family. Many people have been rich from farming like in the list below, it has given this set of people wealth that shows it is profiting.


Rich people from other business also do farming to branch into another source.. As there is now increase in the price of products, I think more farming will increase next year with the rate of scarcity of food in the world and high rate of inflation.

[Hydrogen]

The value of firewood and wood stoves are climbing steeply in many areas.

Is it fair to say that the value of produce, plants and agriculture will follow the same trend.

Everything will be a bad example if you think of making money without work!
If things were that simple everyone would, how do you even say it, not doing a thing and earning money?
But as you can see, it's more and more quitting rather than approaching this field, because it's a risky pain in the ass low margin crap!

That aside, it's one thing growing a few fruits in your 100square yards garden and having this and that and just doing hobby work on them, that works, and it's enjoyable, but a totally different thing to take care of 100 trees. If we weren't a continent apart I would have invited you to come and pick some plum fruits next year, let's see how many 5kg boxes would you be able to do till you give up and you realize you're harvesting fruit at a lower value than flipping hamburgers at McDonald's!

Here in the tropics I have pineapple plants that are flourishing with zero maintenance. Some things do well with little care.

Personally, I used to enjoy doing labor work. I've done construction and labor work in the past. Its not a big deal.

The only thing that sucks about farming for me are mosquitos and biting insects. That's the only thing that would present a challenge if I chose to pursue a full time agriculture career. The physical work would be easy as it wouldn't be as difficult as the job I used to have.

I have a 50 pound bag of concrete outside. I tried to lift it with one hand. Wasn't that hard. I can carry stuff ok.

[autumnleaf]

Having a garden in your backyard can set you apart from the other, and in addition to helping you keep an eye on global inflation, you may develop the habit of planting more as time goes on, leading to a greater output of goods.

[Obari]

If food shortages and price inflation hit. Agricultural HODL could become a viable business strategy.

Similar to being an early investor in bitcoin. Getting in early on agriculture HODL could be a good investment.

Shopping in a supermarket we can see that almond nuts can sell for $10 a pound. When I see this, I wonder to myself how much time and energy would it take to grow 10,000 pounds of almonds to profit a cool $100,000. Does rain, sunshine and the tree do all of the work? If food shortages hit the price of almonds and other food assets could rise dramatically. Instead of $10 a pound. We might see $15 or $20. Profit margins could swell significantly due to circumstantial conditions. As we have seen with other markets posting record profits correlated with price inflation.

Depending on which zone we're located in and the climate. It may also become possible to produce niche luxury crops.

Rising cost of oil could greatly restrict foreign exports. Which could produce a high and growing demand for locally produced alternatives. Which would stack on top of existing favorable market conditions.

It is possible that there is someone in the world who will begin farming this year. Grow and sell a harvest. To produce more next year. Who will possibly become a millionaire through the process. Rising cost of oil and difficulty associated with shipping food products from overseas could all contribute to making it possible.

Anyways what do people think about this. Share your wisdom please.

Well works are done easier with words than action. The very cost of almost nuts you mentioned isn't the cost of the raw nuts but the coat of it after all processing and packaging.  Agriculture is very lucrative and very much undermined maybe because of the activities involved. Agriculture isn't a one day job as it actually follows the principles of garbage in garbage out which implies that the amount of profit depends on the amount of capital and invested in it as well.

Agriculture despite it's challenges as been one of the major backbone of a thriving economy, but subsistence agriculture wouldn't yield much result. So possibly to gain over $100,000 at a time from a particular yield then one should be ready to have invested definitely more than have if the gain expectations and massive labour in the process as well.

[Mauser]

It is possible that there is someone in the world who will begin farming this year. Grow and sell a harvest. To produce more next year. Who will possibly become a millionaire through the process. Rising cost of oil and difficulty associated with shipping food products from overseas could all contribute to making it possible.

That is an interesting take on the global food situation we are facing this year. Food price have been rising for years now, but the rate at which the prices seem to go up increased a lot since the Ukraine-Russia war. Starting to grow and harvest your own food locally could be a good idea to reduce food prices if you have the land to cultivate it. No idea though how hard or easy it is to get your hands on some farm land. Prices for residential or commercial land are at all time highs in my country and it's nearly impossible to find something on the market right now. From a friend whose family own some farm land outside from the city for generations I know that they get letters from time to time with offers to buy the land, but they are not selling it. Another factor will be fertiliser which got a lot more expensive this year and increased cost more for farmers. In my country we saw a lot of protests from the farmers this year who are struggling to make a profit. I am not sure what are the return expectations for a farmer at the start. It might take several years to break even and get the money back for all the equipment you need to buy in the beginning. 

[Poker Player]

Shopping in a supermarket we can see that almond nuts can sell for $10 a pound. When I see this, I wonder to myself how much time and energy would it take to grow 10,000 pounds of almonds to profit a cool $100,000.

I'm sure you have no idea what it's like to grow almond trees.

To grow almond trees you first have to have a piece of land, if you don't have it, you will have to buy it. Of course, agricultural land is a lot cheaper than building land, and it will depend a lot on the area, but get the idea that you will have to pay thousands of $ at a minimum.

Then you will have to pay for some almond trees that are already somewhat grown. I hope you are not planning to plant them with a seed because you can wait many years until you see some production and if they are seeds of a hybrid they will not produce much.

You can grow them without irragation, but if you want to produce to the maximum you will have to install an irrigation system, which implies a cost to install the system and to pay for the water.

Doing all this, with which you will already have to make a good initial investment, you will not see a decent production until 3 years later.

And all of this is only if you don't get a disease that kills them, such as Xylella fastidiosa, and all your investment goes to shit. This can typically happen with vines, almond or olive trees.

And then there is working the field, which will cost you money and time, unless you want to hire out all the work, which will cost you more money.

If more and more people are leaving the countryside, it is for a reason. I don't see that in the future the prices of farm products are supposedly going to rise extraordinarily and exponentially. Surely they will rise, yes, as they are already doing, but if they rise too much, people will not be able to pay them and therefore they will not be able to continue rising.

In this regard, I have left one thing unsaid before: thefts. Pray that they do not steal all your production, or if you want to take measures to prevent them from stealing it, it will cost you more money.

Or maybe you prefer to spend the harvest season with a rifle in your field.

[blue_hurricanger]

Tho, Agriculture products did see a price increase in all categories, I don't know about the final profit of the farmers take a huge leap or not. Cause from what I've read from earlier reports, things like fertilizer's price increase very much as well. Mainly because Russia take a huge share of fertilizer export and was barred from world trade. Agriculture products heavily rely on transport and storage fees too and you saw how fuel prices have increased. I suspect the profit margin for the farmers isn't changed as much and they aren't taking a huge profit from the increased price of Agriculture products. Price mark up all because of things I said above and inflation as well.

[davis196]

What do you mean by agriculture HODL? Producing fruits and vegetables and storing them until their prices increase 10 times?
What about storage costs? You have to put the fruits and vegetables in refrigerators in order to preserve them. This comes at a cost.
Agriculture is the hardest to do business and the profits margins are usually low. Fertilizer prices went thru the roof, everything is getting more expensive. The farmers are selling expensive food because their costs are up, not because they are making bigger profits.
A global recession might be coming and it will push the food prices down, but this will happen after the "easy money" era of quantitative easing and negative interest rates comes to an end(at least for a while).

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

If food shortages and price inflation hit. Agricultural HODL could become a viable business strategy

The question here is why have we all left our ancestors professional farm practice and business? everybody want to appear on suit with a white collar job, who will now go to the field and plant what we will eat, should we starve in hunger or prefer using the earnings from the office work we do to buy expensive farm produce to survive with, I think there's need for a reorientation and a reorganization that will set out mindset, open our eye and expose us deeper to understand that we our the major cause to the economy problem with food.

Those that have the power to plant and sow aren't, while those that did so inflated the price while some hodl the commodity produce for their income, it has now become the survival of the fittest, everyone tries to buy, hodl, inflate and sell high and not until we realized the need to boost the agricultural productivity, things we always be as norms, let's return to farm and cultivate and safe the world from hunger and inflation consequence.

[Findingnemo]

Only few food items can be kept for long time without any preservatives so there isn't going to be any food HODL trend as far as I know unless some conspiracy movies describes the corporates take over the complete agriculture and there is no more individual farmers but it is also too unrealistic to imagine.

For Oil like goods there is some kind of strategy used by the middle men all the time to hike the price and get most profits as much as they can which applies to tomato, wheat, any veggies, etc...

[stompix]

Personally, I used to enjoy doing labor work. I've done construction and labor work in the past. Its not a big deal.
The only thing that sucks about farming for me are mosquitos and biting insects. That's the only thing that would present a challenge if I chose to pursue a full time agriculture career. The physical work would be easy as it wouldn't be as difficult as the job I used to have.
I have a 50 pound bag of concrete outside. I tried to lift it with one hand. Wasn't that hard. I can carry stuff ok.

It wasn't about you not being able to do it but how fruitless (pun!) is this for a guy doing this alone with no investment in machinery!
The plum price for example is around 80 euro cents in store, that's including vat and direct wholesale is earning you 30 eurocents, obviously for a kilo, now erasing any other investment cost you will have to pick up 20 kilos for a post in the cm campaign and about 50kg for an hour of work at flipping burgers at mc donalds.
Quite down from throwing a few seeds and earning 100k while watching Netflix, right?

That's how bad the revenue (not profit!) is, the moment you quit the hobby and make it your daily work it's just survival, and you will never be able to make a profit unless you go big, that means land, that means thousands of trees, that means machinery that can clean a tree in 3-4 minutes with just one guy operating.

Here in the tropics I have pineapple plants that are flourishing with zero maintenance. Some things do well with little care.

And how much is a kilo of something that grows on its own in a region compared to the same price for pineapple you see ins stores in northern Europe for example?
You have to pick one when you're doing the possible revenue sheet 

~

Excellent summary, and still year after year after year I keep hearing of people who want to launch into this business because it's easy as hell, and revenue is through the roof. The good part about this is that once my family will quit and I sure don't plan on taking over it maybe I will find someone who will pay a lot of coins for it.

[Lucius]

Personally, I used to enjoy doing labor work. I've done construction and labor work in the past. Its not a big deal.

The only thing that sucks about farming for me are mosquitos and biting insects. That's the only thing that would present a challenge if I chose to pursue a full time agriculture career. The physical work would be easy as it wouldn't be as difficult as the job I used to have.

Aren't there various repellents for all those little bloodsuckers? I know that before people used them less because of fear because they were poisonous (and now they still are), but as far as I have the opportunity to see, there are also those repellants that should be friendly to humans and the environment. I've also seen people use clothes that are designed to protect against insects while also being breathable.

I have a 50 pound bag of concrete outside. I tried to lift it with one hand. Wasn't that hard. I can carry stuff ok.

You have to think about the consequences of such actions, because all this affects the spine and possible inguinal hernias. I don't know how old you are, but in my country there is a saying that roughly says "old age will ask you where your youth was", or in other words every activity has its consequences, it's just a matter of time.

50 pounds is almost nothing, try lifting a 50 kg bag of cement

[Gozie51]

If food shortages and price inflation hit. Agricultural HODL could become a viable business strategy.

Similar to being an early investor in bitcoin. Getting in early on agriculture HODL could be a good investment.

Agriculture is a good profession, it's a profession that gives money and also gives food. But it is not easy, I have been involved in agriculture, there is much expenses in agriculture especially as the inflation is ongoing, the cost of fertilizer, the cost of manure and other equipments is very high, apart from the mentioned above, the cost of man power that is invested in agriculture is much.
However, when the reward starts coming, you will surely smile. Harvest is always very nice and lovely. With the right plan and if you have a piece of land for agriculture it is a profession that is advisable to venture.

I'm sure you are talking about the mechanised farming or commercial farming. Farming for commercial purpose usually turn out good at the end because you also feed from it and no matter how bad it could be, your capital will be regained especially if it is not lives stock. If you are on pure farming, that is planting and harvesting in commercial quantity, you are likely to have ROI because you have variety of crops and all won't turn out bad.

In the coming years most countries will surely fall back to agriculture to sustain her economy especially African and Asian countries due to the high inflation.

This is true for African countries that inflation is eating up the value of her currency. Next year more people in Africa will look the direction of agriculture even as little as it is in a small piece of land to plant some products and expect to get food that will sustain their family at least because the hard times of this year is so difficult to bear. However the government need to support the people in areas of avoiding flood disaster so that crops won't be washed away and amount to wasted effort. The flood of this year is so alarming especially in regions around the rivers, the riverine areas.

[Hydrogen]

I'm sure you have no idea what it's like to grow almond trees.

To grow almond trees you first have to have a piece of land, if you don't have it, you will have to buy it. Of course, agricultural land is a lot cheaper than building land, and it will depend a lot on the area, but get the idea that you will have to pay thousands of $ at a minimum.

Then you will have to pay for some almond trees that are already somewhat grown. I hope you are not planning to plant them with a seed because you can wait many years until you see some production and if they are seeds of a hybrid they will not produce much.

You can grow them without irragation, but if you want to produce to the maximum you will have to install an irrigation system, which implies a cost to install the system and to pay for the water.

Doing all this, with which you will already have to make a good initial investment, you will not see a decent production until 3 years later.

And all of this is only if you don't get a disease that kills them, such as Xylella fastidiosa, and all your investment goes to shit. This can typically happen with vines, almond or olive trees.

And then there is working the field, which will cost you money and time, unless you want to hire out all the work, which will cost you more money.

If more and more people are leaving the countryside, it is for a reason. I don't see that in the future the prices of farm products are supposedly going to rise extraordinarily and exponentially. Surely they will rise, yes, as they are already doing, but if they rise too much, people will not be able to pay them and therefore they will not be able to continue rising.

In this regard, I have left one thing unsaid before: thefts. Pray that they do not steal all your production, or if you want to take measures to prevent them from stealing it, it will cost you more money.

Or maybe you prefer to spend the harvest season with a rifle in your field.

I have a few nut producing trees. Harvested and sprouted nuts to produce more trees.

One issue I have run into is fragments of nut in seeds rotting and killing plants. One solution I have found is adding hydrogen peroxide to water as a disinfectant.

Before I began learning about gardening. I thought the same thing everyone does. Its back breaking hard work. You need a phd in plants to grow anything.

Think about the least intelligent and educated person you know. Then imagine that people such as these grew enough food to not go extinct over thousands of years of human history.

Farming is good exercise. Coming into physical contact with grass, mud and dirt provides people with beneficial bacteria and boosts their immune system. Plants and trees absorb toxins. Cleaning both water and air. There are upsides to merely attempting agriculture.

It wasn't about you not being able to do it but how fruitless (pun!) is this for a guy doing this alone with no investment in machinery!
The plum price for example is around 80 euro cents in store, that's including vat and direct wholesale is earning you 30 eurocents, obviously for a kilo, now erasing any other investment cost you will have to pick up 20 kilos for a post in the cm campaign and about 50kg for an hour of work at flipping burgers at mc donalds.
Quite down from throwing a few seeds and earning 100k while watching Netflix, right?

That's how bad the revenue (not profit!) is, the moment you quit the hobby and make it your daily work it's just survival, and you will never be able to make a profit unless you go big, that means land, that means thousands of trees, that means machinery that can clean a tree in 3-4 minutes with just one guy operating.

And how much is a kilo of something that grows on its own in a region compared to the same price for pineapple you see ins stores in northern Europe for example?
You have to pick one when you're doing the possible revenue sheet 

Excellent summary, and still year after year after year I keep hearing of people who want to launch into this business because it's easy as hell, and revenue is through the roof. The good part about this is that once my family will quit and I sure don't plan on taking over it maybe I will find someone who will pay a lot of coins for it.

Well, in my case I could have a few advantages.

I'm in a tropical region with year round growing conditions. The area I'm in receives more than 300 inches of rain per year. Free water if it can be harvested, stored and distributed. There is also volcanic rock and ash providing potassium and other nutrients naturally in the soil. Being a tropical region, there is also no shortage of sunlight. In my case it could make sense to pursue agriculture seriously at some point. For others they would have to research and see if it was viable for their region and conditions.

I understand commercial markets are naturally competitive areas. Due to most food items being imported from overseas regions with significantly lower labor costs. But with rising cost of oil hurting food imports, those low labor cost advantages could soon be negated.

There may also be niche markets and areas of agriculture that are underdeveloped which could be targeted.

Financial experts claim rent and food are the two largest monthly expenditures for the majority of people. How much money could the average person save if they grew enough food to not have to buy any for 1 month? 6 months?

[Poker Player]

Financial experts claim rent and food are the two largest monthly expenditures for the majority of people. How much money could the average person save if they grew enough food to not have to buy any for 1 month? 6 months?

You already opened a similar thread in the past and we discussed this. It seems that you are determined and you feel like doing it, so cheer up.

In that thread, as far as I remember, I already told you that if you intend to be self-sufficient, either you will have to reduce the variety of foods you eat, or if you intend to eat with variety, even if it is somewhat less than now, you will have to have so much land that you will not be able to work it on your own, far from it.

If you eat bread every day, or pasta etc. and intend to continue to do so, prepare a good amount of land to plant wheat. But then, harvest it, grind it, and start making homemade bread every day. To eat protein, if you don't want to have a lot of work, you're going to have to keep chickens alone. Well, if you want to keep pigs, sheep, cows, etc., it will be so much work that I doubt you will have much time to grow vegetables.

Anyway, if you decide to farm, I hope you will inform us, but self-sufficiency is much more difficult than one might think. You will most likely be able to survive but at the cost of little nutritional variety.