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Author Topic: Best Recession And Inflation Protected Assets  (Read 256 times)
Hydrogen (OP)
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October 13, 2022, 11:44:23 PM
 #1


Keyword search: best recession performing assets.

Keyword search:  best inflation performing assets.


I have seen a number of good breakdowns and analysis for our current market situation under those headings.

One word that seems to frequently appear is: commodities. No matter how much market conditions change. The price of a cup of coffee. A bushel of wheat. Kilograms of gold, steel or aluminum. These things tend to remain the same. In some cases, the value of basic commodities can inflate dramatically if shortages arise. Or if the cost of shipping and transportation increase to deter imports.

Another shift that could occur is in manufacturing. China has become the major manufacturing hub in the world. But if rising cost of oil hampers chinese exports. Demand could rise dramatically for commodities that are produced locally. Which could open the door to many small DIY and locally sourced alternatives. One critical aspect to this shift from foreign manufacturing to local manufacturing is local producers would also need locally sourced stockpiles of raw materials. Over the long term, this could inflate the price of locally sourced metals, lumber, fiber, waste oil, and so on.

One strategy to HODL is to accurately predict future market conditions and position accordingly. Perhaps in past history and current circumstances we can see opportunities arise. Which can allow for even the darkest recession and inflation era to become a profitable one.


Hydrogen (OP)
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October 15, 2022, 05:09:53 AM
 #2


I totally disagree that price of cup of tea and wheat bag remained the same - no - we use to get bread for 10 of our local currency not its is 20 and the wheat bag 1 kg use to be of 80 and now its approx 150 of our local currency which is not affordable to the poor person - your analysis is not correct.


Its near to the same price.

The main difference is inflation.

Which to a degree makes commodities inflation protected assets if you can find a way to HODL them.

If it were possible to HODL 10,000 cups of coffee for 5 years. Its value would trend with inflation. Protecting your wealth from devaluation.

Wheat could be a better option than coffee (or coffee beans) as I think it can be stored for 20+ years if prepared correctly.

Commodities were the go to option many turned to when inflation 1st became a concern, for these reasons.
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October 15, 2022, 05:21:20 AM
 #3


With China getting discounted gas and oil from Russia, they still could maintain the cost of production but can increase the price of finished products from them. They benefit from this conflict and recession so they are profiting. It's the end users from other countries that are only spending higher for the products from China.

Seen some breakdowns and analyses from youtube wannabe gurus and I think they do have good ideas in pointing out which assets are best to have to protect yourself from what will happen in the foreseeable future.  Most of them suggest silver and gold still because BRICS nations preparing for a currency backed by elements.

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October 15, 2022, 08:42:19 AM
 #4


Keyword search: best recession performing assets.

Keyword search:  best inflation performing assets.


One word that seems to frequently appear is: commodities. No matter how much market conditions change. The price of a cup of coffee. A bushel of wheat. Kilograms of gold, steel or aluminum. These things tend to remain the same.


Although i do agree with this, but Investors should use caution while dealing in commodities because of its high volatility before making an investment. Due to the dependence of commodities on supply and demand factors, even a small shift in supply brought on by geopolitical tensions or conflicts can have a negative impact on commodity prices.

I believe that one of the best asset which is being protected from recession is a Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Companies that hold and manage properties with an income stream are known as real estate investment trusts (REITs). When inflation rises, property values and rental revenue typically increase as well. A group of properties make up a REIT, which distributes dividends to its investors. Consider the Vanguard Real Estate ETF if you want broad exposure to real estate together with a low expense ratio.

But just like every other investment, REITs have significant disadvantages, such as their vulnerability to the market for other high-yield assets. Treasury assets often gain appeal as interest rates climb. The share prices of REITs may decline as a result of this withdrawal of capital.

There are other assets that is also being protected from inflation. For example A 60/40 Stock/Bond Portfolio and The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index
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October 15, 2022, 09:52:11 AM
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 #5

All assets will change, both in terms of price and demand. Gold has a high price and a low price. Likewise with crypto which has an investment principle like gold, it's just that crypto prices move on faster than gold. Meanwhile, real estate will also make prices low at certain times, because the shape of the building, style, and location are not quite right.

The most valuable asset and needed by everyone and will continue to be valuable at an ever-increasing price is land. This is the most appropriate investment for the long term. If we are in an area, and see that the area is not yet developed so that land prices are still cheap, then invest as much as possible, then within 5 to 10 years the price will increase 3 to 5 times the purchase price.

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October 15, 2022, 10:12:59 AM
 #6

One strategy to HODL is to accurately predict future market conditions and position accordingly. Perhaps in past history and current circumstances we can see opportunities arise. Which can allow for even the darkest recession and inflation era to become a profitable one.
Apart from the many choices regarding assets that can withstand recession and inflation, maybe it can be considered according to the target within a certain period of time. However, I just want to say that I will not be too aggressive in investing when the economic conditions are bad other than requiring cash funds to survive. As I said in yesterday's post and have a significant relationship. The thread is here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5411363.msg61117829#msg61117829

It may be a little confusing, but in the recession that comes to our mind, we are trying our best to survive the bad economic conditions. People like me who don't have much in reserve to survive, of course see the recession from a pretty dire angle. Because we only depend on daily sources of livelihood. And when the recession hit, it was feared that centrally-based banks and investment service providers could potentially close, so our assets were stuck there. Therefore I need the cash even though its value is reduced.

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October 15, 2022, 10:18:17 AM
 #7

All assets will change, both in terms of price and demand. Gold has a high price and a low price. Likewise with crypto which has an investment principle like gold, it's just that crypto prices move on faster than gold. Meanwhile, real estate will also make prices low at certain times, because the shape of the building, style, and location are not quite right.

The most valuable asset and needed by everyone and will continue to be valuable at an ever-increasing price is land. This is the most appropriate investment for the long term. If we are in an area, and see that the area is not yet developed so that land prices are still cheap, then invest as much as possible, then within 5 to 10 years the price will increase 3 to 5 times the purchase price.
Regarding land I think it is difficult to find a cheap price and we know for ourselves that the price of land is really extraordinary,
especially with the prediction that in 2023 there will be a recession, of course all assets will change and we must see these changes as opportunities to make a profit,
it's definitely not easy to make a decision and stay careful so you don't slip

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October 15, 2022, 10:47:26 AM
 #8

Another shift that could occur is in manufacturing. China has become the major manufacturing hub in the world. But if rising cost of oil hampers chinese exports. Demand could rise dramatically for commodities that are produced locally. Which could open the door to many small DIY and locally sourced alternatives. One critical aspect to this shift from foreign manufacturing to local manufacturing is local producers would also need locally sourced stockpiles of raw materials. Over the long term, this could inflate the price of locally sourced metals, lumber, fiber, waste oil, and so on.


Even with the higher energy cost, is it possible for any companies in the developed world to compete with a country that has workers making 5 USD a day in manufacturing sectors? Probably not. China has cheap manufacturing at the expensive of slave labor wages. The developed world seemingly accepts this, lapses ethical consideration, for cheap goods.

Plus, the higher energy costs don't just affect China (that is to say, if they decide not to purchase cheap Russian oil which isn't an assumption that can be made), it's affecting local manufactures. I've seen too many businesses in Europe post their energy bills and accepting their economic fate. It's becoming impossible to operate with current energy prices.
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October 15, 2022, 12:15:01 PM
 #9

Inflation makes money worthless and therefore all assets are ideal to fight it, but in terms of cost economics, it is not true.

China's transformation from a source of all goods, commodities and electronics to many countries, and inflation will make some countries from Taiwan to Europe attractive to industry, especially after the recent economic changes and the energy crisis.

Globalization as a term will be redefined in the coming years, so there are no traditional assets on which we can bet, even raw materials, as a short-term solution to inflation.
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October 15, 2022, 05:47:07 PM
 #10

All assets will change, both in terms of price and demand. Gold has a high price and a low price. Likewise with crypto which has an investment principle like gold, it's just that crypto prices move on faster than gold. Meanwhile, real estate will also make prices low at certain times, because the shape of the building, style, and location are not quite right.

The most valuable asset and needed by everyone and will continue to be valuable at an ever-increasing price is land. This is the most appropriate investment for the long term. If we are in an area, and see that the area is not yet developed so that land prices are still cheap, then invest as much as possible, then within 5 to 10 years the price will increase 3 to 5 times the purchase price.
Regarding land I think it is difficult to find a cheap price and we know for ourselves that the price of land is really extraordinary,
especially with the prediction that in 2023 there will be a recession, of course all assets will change and we must see these changes as opportunities to make a profit,
it's definitely not easy to make a decision and stay careful so you don't slip
This is precisely what makes us have to be able to take advantage of places that are not yet developed so that they have a much cheaper price compared to land in developed places. Every place that has been made a community village, of course, sooner or later will progress.
If we talk about investing in Bitcoin, we can't be sure whether during a recession the price will increase or vice versa.
Meanwhile, fiat currencies continue to lose value. Maybe each of us can see how the local currency is in terms of the dollar. This is quite dangerous.

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October 16, 2022, 01:03:50 PM
 #11

So far in my nation it has always been "flour", meaning even wheat prices change, but flour doesn't and you may wonder how? But turns out you could make flour from many different things, and not just wheat, meaning whatever is the cheapest flour you could do that. There is also olive oil, or any kind of cooking oil basically, which also keeps its power no matter what.

Hence, in my nation there are a lot of rich famous celebrities buying up huge chunks of olive fields, not because they care about the price of olive oil, or olive, but because they care about keeping their investment valuable and survive, it's not the income, it's the value of the asset.

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October 16, 2022, 01:18:28 PM
 #12

Most of our products are imported, and have a China counter part the inflations affects its price and even vegetables becomes more expensive where in fact, we have a lot of farmers, I don't know but our government is really not doing well when it comes to controlling of the inflation. Coffee and flour are not safe from inflation, It's really hard to find a best asset that can be more protected from any recession and inflation, look at those country who are already suffering from a hyper inflation, everything becomes expensive.

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October 16, 2022, 01:29:22 PM
 #13

All assets will change, both in terms of price and demand. Gold has a high price and a low price. Likewise with crypto which has an investment principle like gold, it's just that crypto prices move on faster than gold. Meanwhile, real estate will also make prices low at certain times, because the shape of the building, style, and location are not quite right.

The most valuable asset and needed by everyone and will continue to be valuable at an ever-increasing price is land. This is the most appropriate investment for the long term. If we are in an area, and see that the area is not yet developed so that land prices are still cheap, then invest as much as possible, then within 5 to 10 years the price will increase 3 to 5 times the purchase price.
Regarding land I think it is difficult to find a cheap price and we know for ourselves that the price of land is really extraordinary,
especially with the prediction that in 2023 there will be a recession, of course all assets will change and we must see these changes as opportunities to make a profit,
it's definitely not easy to make a decision and stay careful so you don't slip
This is precisely what makes us have to be able to take advantage of places that are not yet developed so that they have a much cheaper price compared to land in developed places. Every place that has been made a community village, of course, sooner or later will progress.
If we talk about investing in Bitcoin, we can't be sure whether during a recession the price will increase or vice versa.
Meanwhile, fiat currencies continue to lose value. Maybe each of us can see how the local currency is in terms of the dollar. This is quite dangerous.
I don't think prices of land will change even if there's a recession it might just stay the same then after the recession it will continue to rise. While a developing land where there are plenty of people the price will increase especially if it is a rural or urban places. And investing Bitcoin might be a wise choice since there are cycle that the market will start to pump. It's different if we compared Bitcoin and other metals as an investment since there prices is quite slow in term of growing but the risk is different that's why it's safe to invest metals than Bitcoin. But most people love to gamble and they like the high risk, high reward investment.

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October 23, 2022, 05:02:15 PM
 #14

Most of our products are imported, and have a China counter part the inflations affects its price and even vegetables becomes more expensive where in fact, we have a lot of farmers, I don't know but our government is really not doing well when it comes to controlling of the inflation. Coffee and flour are not safe from inflation, It's really hard to find a best asset that can be more protected from any recession and inflation, look at those country who are already suffering from a hyper inflation, everything becomes expensive.
The government has a huge responsibility int he current inflation crisis that is happening. There isn't a shortage of commodities but they still let importation from China run continuously and they disregard the effort of our local farmers and manufacturers. They focus on importing products from China because they are benefiting from it. Supporting local farmers and sellers could lessen the inflation crisis but their priority is to take advantage of the situation and just let their citizens suffer and deal with the crisis. The hard part to deal with is, when the prices of commodities increases, it will not go back to their previous price so we have to find ways to survive the situation.
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November 09, 2022, 12:16:28 AM
 #15


Keyword search: best recession performing assets.

Keyword search:  best inflation performing assets.


I have seen a number of good breakdowns and analysis for our current market situation under those headings.

One word that seems to frequently appear is: commodities. No matter how much market conditions change. The price of a cup of coffee. A bushel of wheat. Kilograms of gold, steel or aluminum. These things tend to remain the same. In some cases, the value of basic commodities can inflate dramatically if shortages arise. Or if the cost of shipping and transportation increase to deter imports.

Another shift that could occur is in manufacturing. China has become the major manufacturing hub in the world. But if rising cost of oil hampers chinese exports. Demand could rise dramatically for commodities that are produced locally. Which could open the door to many small DIY and locally sourced alternatives. One critical aspect to this shift from foreign manufacturing to local manufacturing is local producers would also need locally sourced stockpiles of raw materials. Over the long term, this could inflate the price of locally sourced metals, lumber, fiber, waste oil, and so on.

One strategy to HODL is to accurately predict future market conditions and position accordingly. Perhaps in past history and current circumstances we can see opportunities arise. Which can allow for even the darkest recession and inflation era to become a profitable one.



Inflation in this world is indeed difficult to avoid, because maybe it has become a natural cycle in life.
the price of food, fuel, light equipment and heavy equipment.
continues to increase, so it is predictable, inflation is difficult to avoid.
the price of food 20 years ago, it was much different from the price of food now.
and when it comes to assets,
I prefer to invest in bitcoin, gold and land.
and when it comes to food, I prefer to save rice.
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November 09, 2022, 02:18:55 AM
 #16

Anything that is always needed or produces something that people always need is somehow protected from these economic problems. Oversupply is probably your worst enemy, though, or perhaps regulatory policies of governments.

To illustrate, at this present time, my country is suffering from very high inflation. Our currency also weakens. We're also affected in many ways by the invasion happening in Europe. And since we're an importing country, we're also severely affected by supply chains hampered by the pandemic and other global problems. But everybody always need food.

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November 09, 2022, 08:05:50 AM
Last edit: November 09, 2022, 08:29:29 AM by Zlantann
 #17


Keyword search: best recession performing assets.

Keyword search:  best inflation performing assets.


I have seen a number of good breakdowns and analysis for our current market situation under those headings.

One word that seems to frequently appear is: commodities. No matter how much market conditions change. The price of a cup of coffee. A bushel of wheat. Kilograms of gold, steel or aluminum. These things tend to remain the same. In some cases, the value of basic commodities can inflate dramatically if shortages arise. Or if the cost of shipping and transportation increase to deter imports.

Another shift that could occur is in manufacturing. China has become the major manufacturing hub in the world. But if rising cost of oil hampers chinese exports. Demand could rise dramatically for commodities that are produced locally. Which could open the door to many small DIY and locally sourced alternatives. One critical aspect to this shift from foreign manufacturing to local manufacturing is local producers would also need locally sourced stockpiles of raw materials. Over the long term, this could inflate the price of locally sourced metals, lumber, fiber, waste oil, and so on.

One strategy to HODL is to accurately predict future market conditions and position accordingly. Perhaps in past history and current circumstances we can see opportunities arise. Which can allow for even the darkest recession and inflation era to become a profitable one.



Your analysis may be correct to a large extent. But the world is interconnected and economic challenges in other nations affect others. Most locally produced goods depend heavily on imported raw materials and this also affects the price. I was very surprised when our local bread supplier told us in the town hall meeting that his bakery depends on wheat from Ukraine. Hence, the increase in bread prices was due to the instability in that country. Sometimes these locally made products are even more expensive than imported ones because some nations have competitive advantage than local producers.

When the recession is triggered mainly by the price of key raw materials like gas or crude it is always difficult to predict the best place to invest because this raw material is needed in almost all sectors of the economy. It affects the cost of powerr and transportation which determines the cost of almost everything.

R


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November 09, 2022, 01:19:43 PM
 #18

There is no perfect answer for all parts of the world, and there is no perfect answer for every individual in society, and there is no unified answer that unites all societies. Inflation is a big word and has many causes, and therefore we cannot get a simple, clear and appropriate answer for all countries, individuals and societies.

If you are looking for a long-term solution for ten years or more, Bitcoin is the perfect solution.
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November 09, 2022, 01:49:45 PM
 #19

There is no perfect answer for all parts of the world, and there is no perfect answer for every individual in society, and there is no unified answer that unites all societies. Inflation is a big word and has many causes, and therefore we cannot get a simple, clear and appropriate answer for all countries, individuals and societies.

If you are looking for a long-term solution for ten years or more, Bitcoin is the perfect solution.

Crisis, and inflation also has a cycle and it will repeat at some point in the future and the best way to protect ourselves is to prepare for it now. Having said that, assets with a limited supply like bitcoin are a good solution but I also think it is necessary to diversify for everything to be perfect, Gold can also be seen as a good anti-inflation asset in the future.

The most recent economic crisis was in 2008 and it's back in 10 years, it would be interesting if we could save bitcoins until then. While people will continue to find ways to fight inflation with fiat, those who own bitcoin at the time will not need to think about inflation.

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November 12, 2022, 03:58:03 PM
 #20

Your analysis may be correct to a large extent. But the world is interconnected and economic challenges in other nations affect others. Most locally produced goods depend heavily on imported raw materials and this also affects the price. I was very surprised when our local bread supplier told us in the town hall meeting that his bakery depends on wheat from Ukraine. Hence, the increase in bread prices was due to the instability in that country. Sometimes these locally made products are even more expensive than imported ones because some nations have competitive advantage than local producers.

When the recession is triggered mainly by the price of key raw materials like gas or crude it is always difficult to predict the best place to invest because this raw material is needed in almost all sectors of the economy. It affects the cost of powerr and transportation which determines the cost of almost everything.
It is sad because the price shouldn't be impacted from outside resources if there is instability. I understand Ukrainian wheat if all is well, they could produce it cheaper than your nation normally, but when things go wrong, your own local wheat farmers should be able to cover it, maybe with just a little difference but not something huge. If they can't, that means you do not have enough wheat farmers and that’s a big problem.

All these items that go up so much during the inflation period showed that they were not made properly in a protected situation, they all depended on something and that’s a big problem that needs to be solved eventually, and this inflation period should be a lesson.

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