Alik Bakhshi
Turkey has successfully tested a ballistic missile that hit a target at a distance of 500 km.
" Turkish Party" to "Grand Chessboard"
middlegame Thus, the "Turkish Party" played out Tayyip Erdogan (
http://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/10334.html), crept to the middlegame. As befits in the middlegame, designated the main strategic objectives. However, there is nothing new - traditionally, if you take into account the historical fact that, of all wars, the given Russia the largest number of accounts for Turkey, then again the main Russian political plans tied to the Turkish area. It is important to note that the Russian empire against Turkey has always supported the aggressor. Nothing has changed during the stay of the Soviet Union. So during the Second World War, namely in November 1940, when conducted difficult negotiations with Hitler to join the Soviet Union in the Pact axis (Germany, Italy, Japan), Stalin gave consent, but on the condition that Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey will enter in the sphere of interests of the Kremlin. However, later, Stalin somewhat retreated in their demands and asked to give to the slaughter Soviet Union only Bulgaria and Turkey, but it was too late, Hitler had already begun to develop "Barbarossa" plan (see "Fatal mistakes of Stalin, who saved the world» (http:. / /samlib.ru/editors/b/bahshi_a/alikbahshi-34.shtml).
The German invasion of the USSR temporarily pushed territorial claims to Turkey, but Stalin was persistent and repeatedly raised the "Turkish question" at the Tehran Conference in 1943 and in 1944 during negotiations with Churchill in Moscow. After the war, in June 1945 the Turkish ambassador in Moscow issued an ultimatum was asked to sign a friendship treaty, which provided for the construction of Soviet naval bases in the Straits of Bosporus and Dardanelles, and the transfer of large parts of the eastern part of Turkey.
http://cont.ws/post/107632 Stalin considered control over the Black Sea straits primary geopolitical challenge, so the summer of 1945 at the insistence of the Soviet delegation, "Turkish question" was included in the agenda of the Potsdam Conference. Then, Truman and Churchill unanimously rejected the blatant, in fact, Moscow's territorial claims. But Stalin did not reckon with their opinion and continued the policy of pressure on Turkey. He could not come to terms with the fact that all along the Soviet border from the Baltic to the Black Sea, Turkey was the only country not fallen into Moscow's sphere of influence. Stalin thought that this was the opportune moment to take advantage of the friendly allied relations with the United States and Great Britain, as well as the increased power of the post-war Soviet Union, to finally carry out long-held dream to capture the Russian Black Sea straits. This caused a sobering Western politicians, there is the famous "Long Telegram" of the American Ambassador in Moscow John. Kennan of 22 February 1946, in which he warns Washington about the expansionist ambitions of Moscow and advises refers to the Soviet Union, not as an ally but as an enemy. The final rejection of the blind policy of Roosevelt, Stalin fully trust and skeptical about the constant warnings of Churchill accomplished after the famous prophetic Churchill's Fulton speech March 5, 1946. Churchill said directly that Soviet Russia "wants to disrupt the fruits of victory, and completely using its power to publicize its doctrine." There he said: "Turkey and Persia are deeply concerned and are concerned about the claims made on them, and the pressures to which they are subjected by the government of Moscow."
http://www.coldwar.ru/churchill/fulton.php Immensely postwar Moscow's demands in the territorial acquisitions, besides those already acquired during the war (Tyva, Prussia, a significant part of eastern Poland, southern Sakhalin, the Kuril Islands), - another fatal mistake of Stalin.
The threat of the loss of sovereignty and territorial integrity was the cause of Turkey's accession to NATO, which protect the country against the encroachments of the Soviet Union and its successor no less aggressive today Putin's Russia, which invaded Syria under the pretext of fighting Islamic terrorism and with the caveat "We in Syria do not do the decision of any special tasks in addition to the declared (fight against terrorism), where we protect our national interests "- Munich speech Medvedev (
http://www.rbc.ru/politics/13/02/2016/56bf31bd9a79475a1fcea255).
As for the protection of national interests Medvedev is absolutely right. The fact that in the Russian Empire, many colonial peoples are Muslims, and it is possible that they do not follow the Chechen scenario. In this case, Moscow under the pretext of the fight against Islamic terrorists will ruthlessly suppress the aspiration of peoples to freedom, as has happened in Chechnya. Raising the fight against international Islamic terrorism to the rank of top priority, interested parties themselves use terrorism for all-out war of terror decisions purely political purposes. In fact, international terrorism slot is located behind the walls of the Kremlin (1). That inmate security officer Putin, the Kremlin's treacherous terrorist plans are developed, such as a series of undermining buildings in Moscow and Volgodonsk, in order to pass off as terrorist acts by Chechen fighters to the second Chechen war, leaning all the power of a huge empire of the paucity of the Chechen people. Return rebellious people, or rather, what remains of it, in the bosom of the empire and the triumph to come to the presidential election was the primary task of Putin. It Kremlin revanchist responsible for the attack on Georgia and Ukraine, annexing part of the territory of these countries. By freezing the war with Ukraine, Putin gets involved in Middle Eastern affairs, where in addition to the fight against Islamic terrorists, he is going to protect the interests of Russia and more, as it follows from the Munich speech Medvedev.
What are the specific interests of Russia, Putin has found in Syria? If the war with Georgia and Ukraine can be explained by the desire of Putin to restore the empire in the borders of the Soviet Union, the collapse of which he regrets, that of military invasion Russia to Syria, in my opinion, hiding some other, deeper political reasons, rather than just the intention to help the dictator Assad in his struggle with the opposition and the Islamists of LIH. It was not in vain Medvedev uttered the phrase about the presence of Russian interests in the vinaigrette Syrian problems. I think that the Syrian crisis has turned up, as well as possible, by the way, to fish in troubled waters.
I must say the political situation in Syria is very complicated indeed. In the civil war in Syria will be typed almost a dozen warring parties differing political and ethnic lines. Of these, the principal, clearly identify possible supporters of Assad (Arab Alawites), secular opposition (Arabs, Turkmens), Kurds, Islamists (LIH) and Turkmen (same Turks).
The beginning of the crisis put come down, finally, and to Syria's "Arab Spring". Dictator Assad appeared the opposition, demanding democratic reforms. The dictator acted in a dictatorial, - instead of dialogue rather harshly crack down on political opponents, which is nothing to do but to take up arms. The country began a civil war, against which, due to the weakening of the central government, there was a tendency of separatism among the Kurds, compactly living in the north-east and therefore in Turks living in the north-western part of Syria. Ethnic bomb was planted by the British and the French after World War I when redrawing the boundaries of the defunct Ottoman Empire, not really ignoring the ethnic composition of the population living there. The main principle that guided the winners was "Delhi and conquer." Unprecedented active Western interference in the Middle East region, begun by amateur W. Bush policy and continuing to this day, people made life unbearable in the region. Hence, the problem of refugees, a million streams rushed to their founders, responsible in the past for the bloody era of the Crusades, two world wars and now a new intervention in the Middle East region. Is it so difficult to understand that democracy can not bring on the bayonets of the marines, it's like entering the house of the Jew, and to present as a gift to roast a pig. The people should not tamper ripe for the adoption of democracy, as happened in Turkey. A striking example is not ready for democracy demonstrated by the Russian people, who tasted the taste of democracy, he rejected it by returning to the totalitarian regime of government. Elections, parliament (the Duma), - all this is a profanation of pure water, and it was all under the communist regime, which was issued for the form of true democracy. Today, Putin has called a regime of sovereign democracy, that is necessary to understand democracy for the sovereign, for which the Russian people are not denotes the soul in it. He returned to the people so beloved empire, without which the Russian people at all was nearly lost.
Putin clearly overestimated the economic possibilities of Russia starts a war with Ukraine, and certainly did not expect that sanctions and falling oil prices will affect so detrimental to the state of the economy. Putin has destroyed the free market in Russia and seemed to be just right to sell off state-owned enterprises, but the question is, who will buy them? To then, if Russia will creep out their newly nationalized. Fools do not. Its oligarchs would not give dollars for rubles and, of course, the state will not buy. Maybe he thought he could blackmail the gas to Europe, as once the Ukraine, but it is the export of gas to date the only reliable source of revenue and likely Europe has a great opportunity to blackmail Russia, abandoning the Russian gas. Realizing at last, in what abyss rolls Russia, Putin did not even know who to offer gas and is worn with a gas pipe from one country to another, but to no avail. Hope for China is illusory, there is the economy is experiencing a recession, especially since China already buys gas from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Cover with a copper basin and gas project "South Stream", because of the conflict with Turkey. Here we come to the traditionally important for Russia to the Turkish issue, and what is needed to Putin Syria.
Perhaps there is no more important strategic point on the Earth than the territory of Turkey, located at the junction of Europe and Asia. For the possession of this important geopolitically territory fought many empires including, as I mentioned, and the Russian Empire. And after a lull Moscow again fixed her eyes on Turkey. However, if earlier dominated by expansionist Russia, but now in the foreground purely economic problem, threatening the collapse of the new empire. The fact that Turkey is becoming a hub of hydrocarbons from the Caspian basin and the Persian Gulf. There is a lot of gas transport projects to Europe via Turkey, bypassing Russia. Construction of one of them, the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) to be completed in 2018, that put an end to the monopoly of Russian gas delivery to the EU. To this pipeline will connect Iran in the future.
Here lies the Russian involvement in the Syrian crisis. Syrian-Turkish border has a length of 822 km. In the area adjacent to the border Syrian territory inhabited by the Turks and the Kurds. The Kurds in the Middle East is very spread out and in terms of the creation of their state claim to a vast area that includes part of the Syrian territories, Turkey and Iraq. It should be noted that on the same territory claimed by both the Nazis from Armenian Dashnaktsutyun party, which in the years of the First World War, with the support of Russia, waged a military mutiny, having started the ethnic cleansing under the Great Armenia, cutting both Turkish and Kurdish population. In connection with this interesting fact: an uprising in Turkey in 1927, the Kurds declared the Kurdish Republic of Ararat.
http://dic.academic.ru/dic.nsf/ruwiki/1612511 Kurds Stalin hoped to use in case of war with Turkey. Today, Russia's goal, taking advantage of the civil war in Syria to destabilize the entire region, adjacent to Turkey. In this regard, the rate on the Kurds, who are constantly seeping through the Turkish border to commit terrorist acts, quite reasonable, because it threatened the security becomes a trans-Anatolian gas pipeline and the future gas pipeline from the Gulf. Putin has repeatedly tried to cut the pipeline "Baku - Tbilisi - Erzurum" by attacking Georgia in 2008.
The Kremlin's true there is another option to avoid a competitor for transporting gas to Europe, is to attack Azerbaijan, which not only produces oil and gas, but will in the future transit hub for gas from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. No wonder the Russian Caspian Flotilla has significantly strengthened with new frigates, which was not even in the days of the Cold War. This is a clear demonstration of the military threat to the Caspian countries, former colonies of Russia. Again, how can we not recall Putin regrets the collapse of the Soviet Union, and they unleashed the war in Ukraine. There is no guarantee that in Baku and Turkmenbashi appear "green men". This is why Putin has cultivated since the days of the Chechen war, the legend of international Islamic terrorism, which is at the origin of the Kremlin. And the Petersburg Chekists bully Putin is no stranger to blow up a couple of houses in Tashkent or Almaty, presenting it the work of Islamists from Islamic State, and Russian soldiers at the time showed up to protect the residents from non-existent terrorists. And then, you know, "a voluntary expression of the will", "desire to join the people", and of other such traditional nesusvetitsa.
For good reason intimidate Putin 'expansion in Russia and the CIS militants in Syria is open plan. " (
http://Http://ria.ru/syria/20160220/1377942415.html) Well, not nonsense! However, Putin is a liar known (2).
But his words about the appropriate actions of the Russian army: "Our armed forces must always be ready to respond quickly and adequately to potential threats, stop any provocation and aggressive actions." (
http://Https://russian.rt.com/article/149820)
Particularly note that we are talking about the response to the potential threat. So Putin is optionally always find in every Muslim country on the periphery of Russia.
By placing the air force of Syria, Putin immediately decided to test Turkey's reaction to the provocative actions if Erdogan dare to express, to put it mildly, lack of respect for a mighty empire, had just seized the Crimea, and chop off the fifth part of Ukraine. Ankara twice to no avail expressed a note of protest about the violation of Turkish airspace, Putin decided that Turkey, fear of confrontation, already keeps a low profile. However, the third time the Russian SU-24 bomber was shot down. Russian received a lesson, after which the pilots no longer make mistakes as it tried to present was Moscow. Apparently Putin this turn of events was a complete surprise that he foolishly blurted out anti-Turkish sanctions and importantly has come under question, so important for the Russian "South Stream". Honestly, I have a suspicion that Turkey did not want to implement this project and haggling about the price of gas, while pulling the end of the pipe laying on the TANAP project, that is what he wants the EU - Russian gas monopoly destruction. With the introduction of TANAP need for the "South Stream" will disappear altogether.
It looks like the economic collapse of Russia is inevitable. Putin, like a beast, rushing in he himself constructed the cell in such a situation of agonizing Russia can expect any trouble, right up to nuclear war. As if there was not, but Erdogan will have to be prepared for a war with Russia, which will fight the hands of Armenia and the Kurds. Armenia with the dream of creating a "Greater Armenia" from sea to sea just waiting for a visual signal of the Kremlin, to renew the war with Azerbaijan. Do not exclude the probability of inclusion in the mess and Iran as a strategic ally of Russia (3). To counter the aggression of the Armenian armed to the teeth, Turkey will introduce troops in Azerbaijan, as it was in 1918, when the Armenians raising mutiny, seized Baku and a number of towns and villages of Azerbaijan. Undoubtedly, hostilities will begin along the Armenian-Turkish border. Thus, the Caucasus could become a blazing fire that would exclude the possibility of transporting hydrocarbon from the Caspian region to Europe bypassing Russia. Erdogan is necessary to inform the world community about the serious threats to peace on the part of Russia and NATO to develop a plan of action in the event of such an outcome of events. On the other hand all the Turkic countries should show solidarity and present a united front in defense of Turkey and Azerbaijan, because they will be the next victim of Putin's Russia.
1. International terrorism and its interested parties.
http://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/1904.html2. Empire of Lies and its chief liar.
http://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/22317.html3. Armenia and Moscow-Tehran axis.
http://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/1347.html 02.27.16.
