[2022-10-21] Global Recession May Last Until Near 2024 Bitcoin Halving-Elon Musk

[D1v4c]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/global-recession-may-last-until-near-2024-bitcoin-halving-elon-musk

The world could be stuck with recession until Spring 2024, Musk guesses in a fresh blow to the risk asset outlook.

Bitcoin may spend the time until its next block subsidy halving battling recession, Elon Musk suggested.

In a tweet on Oct. 21, the Tesla CEO revealed his belief that the world would only exit recession in Spring 2024.

After the United States entered a technical recession with its Q3 GDP data, debate continues over how much worse the scenario could get.

For Musk, while long predicting the United States economy would enter a recession, the likelihood of a global downturn lingering is now real.

[philipma1957]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/global-recession-may-last-until-near-2024-bitcoin-halving-elon-musk

The world could be stuck with recession until Spring 2024, Musk guesses in a fresh blow to the risk asset outlook.

Bitcoin may spend the time until its next block subsidy halving battling recession, Elon Musk suggested.

In a tweet on Oct. 21, the Tesla CEO revealed his belief that the world would only exit recession in Spring 2024.

After the United States entered a technical recession with its Q3 GDP data, debate continues over how much worse the scenario could get.

For Musk, while long predicting the United States economy would enter a recession, the likelihood of a global downturn lingering is now real.

He does this to be able to pump DOGE.  Pretty much an a-hole move by him unless you happen to have a lot of doge.

[DooMAD]

Why is this considered news?  Musk knows about as much as anyone else does, so I don't know why the media keep asking his opinion on this stuff.  He even said he's just guessing.  The only thing he really knows for sure is which market he's going to attempt to manipulate next.  If they reported that, then you could call it news.

[NotATether]

fresh blow to the risk asset outlook

Not a blow, Elon Musk is just not afraid to call out the elephant in the room (unlike the economists or the Federal Reserve) which we all know about.

Bitcoin may spend the time until its next block subsidy halving battling recession, Elon Musk suggested.

Bitcoin does not battle recession. Countries do.


We're already in a global recession - just state the obvious, no need for useless reports speculating on the subject.

[bbc.reporter]

Why is this considered news?  Musk knows about as much as anyone else does, so I don't know why the media keep asking his opinion on this stuff.  He even said he's just guessing.  The only thing he really knows for sure is which market he's going to attempt to manipulate next.  If they reported that, then you could call it news.

Agreed that it might only be his guess, however, it is a very realistic guess, I reckon. And also a very optimistic one if we should consider that a bigger war might begin in Europe. The skeptical me is worried that because of desperation and to cause Nato to join the war, Ukraine might detonate a nuclear bomb in a city in their own country and blame it on the Russians.

[NeuroticFish]

Agreed that it might only be his guess, however, it is a very realistic guess, I reckon. And also a very optimistic one

You don't seem convinced if it's an optimistic or realistic guess.
I find it (overly) optimistic. Recovery after a war is never easy. And in this case the war is not even over. I fear that the recession may be longer this time than many expect.

I will tell about his tweet the same thing I usually say about this or that guy predicting bitcoin price: this kind of predictions have 0 value and they're usually biased. So you better look closely why "near 2024" was picked.

[bbc.reporter]

@NeuroticFish. It appears that you have misunderstood. It is realistic that yes, there will be a global recession. Biased or not, we know this already. However, I also say that it is also an optimistic prediction because Elon was thinking that it might only last until near 2024. Similar to your reply, I also speculate that it might last longer than this.

[Argoo]

@NeuroticFish. It appears that you have misunderstood. It is realistic that yes, there will be a global recession. Biased or not, we know this already. However, I also say that it is also an optimistic prediction because Elon was thinking that it might only last until near 2024. Similar to your reply, I also speculate that it might last longer than this.

This is the opinion of Elon Musk alone, and he is not a great specialist in cryptocurrency. But we already see that all the economies of the states are very weakened by the coronavirus pandemic, which does not want to retreat even a few years after its appearance. And then there's Russia unleashed in the center of Europe the most destructive and bloody war, which has not been since the Second World War. This war has long gone beyond the boundaries of only two states participating in it. More than 50 states voluntarily agreed to further restrict their economies by participating in economic sanctions against the aggressor country. The situation is very complicated and therefore the economic recession in the world can be observed for more than one year.
At the same time, we know that cryptocurrencies very often present us with unexpected price surprises. Therefore, there is no need to despair. The cryptocurrency market can go up and start to recover any day.

[NeuroticFish]

@NeuroticFish. It appears that you have misunderstood. It is realistic that yes, there will be a global recession. Biased or not, we know this already. However, I also say that it is also an optimistic prediction because Elon was thinking that it might only last until near 2024. Similar to your reply, I also speculate that it might last longer than this.

This is the opinion of Elon Musk alone, and he is not a great specialist in cryptocurrency. But we already see that all the economies of the states are very weakened by the coronavirus pandemic, which does not want to retreat even a few years after its appearance. And then there's Russia unleashed in the center of Europe the most destructive and bloody war, which has not been since the Second World War. This war has long gone beyond the boundaries of only two states participating in it. More than 50 states voluntarily agreed to further restrict their economies by participating in economic sanctions against the aggressor country. The situation is very complicated and therefore the economic recession in the world can be observed for more than one year.
At the same time, we know that cryptocurrencies very often present us with unexpected price surprises. Therefore, there is no need to despair. The cryptocurrency market can go up and start to recover any day.

Whether he's specialist or not in crypto doesn't matter in this. Last time I've checked the world economy was still not relying (yet?) on cryptocurrencies.
The quoted part was telling about world economy's recession and the expected time to recover. Still, the things you wrote are pretty much unrelated to that (time).
And back to crypto and your last line: while crypto can bring nice surprises indeed, it's expected that during a recession they will also not do great (if people don't have money, they won't buy, and if there is no demand, the price can only go down).

[cr1776]

fresh blow to the risk asset outlook

Not a blow, Elon Musk is just not afraid to call out the elephant in the room (unlike the economists or the Federal Reserve) which we all know about.

Bitcoin may spend the time until its next block subsidy halving battling recession, Elon Musk suggested.

Bitcoin does not battle recession. Countries do.


We're already in a global recession - just state the obvious, no need for useless reports speculating on the subject.

Exactly. 

Bitcoin gives power to the people to protect themselves from kleptocrats around the world who are using inflation to steal money from everyone else to try and cover their own sins.

[bbc.reporter]

And back to crypto and your last line: while crypto can bring nice surprises indeed, it's expected that during a recession they will also not do great (if people don't have money, they won't buy, and if there is no demand, the price can only go down).

That makes my argument for what much of the people use cryptocurrency and tokens for. An asset for speculation. I reckon there is nothing wrong about this, however, many people in the cryptospace appear to be in denial of this. They cannot accept that much of those who enter the cryptospace are in here to make fiat. From the forum dwellers like us to the billionaires like Michael Saylor.

[NeuroticFish]

many people in the cryptospace appear to be in denial of this

So true. And denial means unrealistic expectations, bad surprises and sometimes dramas too, unfortunately.
That's why we, at least here on this forum, should be realistic and express clearly the truth/situation, with both its good and bad sides.

[bbc.reporter]

many people in the cryptospace appear to be in denial of this

So true. And denial means unrealistic expectations, bad surprises and sometimes dramas too, unfortunately.
That's why we, at least here on this forum, should be realistic and express clearly the truth/situation, with both its good and bad sides.

Reality is ignored when our cryptocoins are giving us losses but we do not want to sell. The bigger the loss, the stronger the motivation to create hype and the stronger hope that a pump will arrive soon. I am not criticizing because this is only natural behavior for us smaller investors hehe.

However, when other people tell us to see reality, we attack them to defend the holiness of our cryptocoins and excommunicate them. This is like holding a certain cryptocoin has become a religion.

[cr1776]

many people in the cryptospace appear to be in denial of this

So true. And denial means unrealistic expectations, bad surprises and sometimes dramas too, unfortunately.
That's why we, at least here on this forum, should be realistic and express clearly the truth/situation, with both its good and bad sides.

I think many people who have been here for a while tend to be realistic:  bitcoin will be worth a whole lot or very little with not much room for a middle value.  To me most people here realize the benefits of crypto (bitcoin in particular) and so tend to think that as more people realize the benefits the fiat price will go higher.

[bbc.reporter]

many people in the cryptospace appear to be in denial of this

So true. And denial means unrealistic expectations, bad surprises and sometimes dramas too, unfortunately.
That's why we, at least here on this forum, should be realistic and express clearly the truth/situation, with both its good and bad sides.

I think many people who have been here for a while tend to be realistic:  bitcoin will be worth a whole lot or very little with not much room for a middle value.  To me most people here realize the benefits of crypto (bitcoin in particular) and so tend to think that as more people realize the benefits the fiat price will go higher.

I disagree, there are not many who are not very realistic holders when it comes to bitcoin and I am not talking about the price. I am talking about the limitations of bitcoin as a store of value, medium of exchange, a currency. If you challenge their beliefs on this, they will call you an antagonizer, a bitcoin hater or something similar to a heretic. I am not quite certain if the cannot see reality or they refuse to see it because they only want a pump.

This is very head shaking behavior.

[NeuroticFish]

I think many people who have been here for a while tend to be realistic

You may be right, if that while at least contains a crypto winter, excepting this one.
Then you may see a pattern, they may have more confidence.

But the noisier ones on the matter are the newcomers, which are scared.
And let's be honest, no matter how many bitcoin cycles we've witnessed, none was during a worldwide economic recession (although there are mixed signals whether it's a worldwide recession or not).

[cr1776]

I think many people who have been here for a while tend to be realistic

You may be right, if that while at least contains a crypto winter, excepting this one.
Then you may see a pattern, they may have more confidence.

But the noisier ones on the matter are the newcomers, which are scared.
And let's be honest, no matter how many bitcoin cycles we've witnessed, none was during a worldwide economic recession (although there are mixed signals whether it's a worldwide recession or not).

That is true re the 2007-2007 timeframe.  I am still of the opinion that bitcoin will over time protect you from inflation and confiscation along with many other uses.  It certainly has down well compared to fiat over most timeframes > 12-18 months.  Time will tell if that continues.

:-)