Could 17.5k BTC actually be 13-14k pre-inflation?

[Yaunfitda]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Possible, but what is the point of thinking it that way? I mean prices is going down, we are in the bear market, it went from $69k to $17.5 or whatever price you think. So that's basically what happened in a long hard and grind bear market.

We will definitely have to bottom in this cycle, right now it's $17.5k. Maybe next year when the market is still in the negative in could be in $13k-$14k like your price pre-inflation, but it doesn't mean anything to bitcoin investors.

[Inwestour]

We will definitely have to bottom in this cycle, right now it's $17.5k. Maybe next year when the market is still in the negative in could be in $13k-$14k like your price pre-inflation, but it doesn't mean anything to bitcoin investors.

It just means that if the price drops lower, then we will be able to buy some bitcoin at a lower price. But at the moment, the 19k support level was as an insurmountable level for the bears and now we see that bitcoin has begun to grow, so now there are more chances to go up than down, a temporary rebound is possible. Don't worry about temporary fall, we'll see big gains in the long run.

[worldofcoins]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

I think in short term it's possible for bitcoin to reach 17k or even 16 or 15k, but in long run, it'll cross 60k easily.

I made a thread where everyone will predict the price of btc whether it'll hit the mark of 45k/BTC but it seems we're a long way from hitting that mark and maybe we'll have to wait 2 more years for bitcoin to actually go over that price.

[Rahul09]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Of course, the price of everything has doubled in the last 2 years. But despite everything going up, the price of Bitcoin has halved which is now hovering between 18k and 20k. This condition of Bitcoin is due to the bad market conditions. But this bad situation is not new for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is where it is today by facing such a situation. Similarly, we have to wait for Bitcoin to reach higher levels. And now that Bitcoin is at 18k,but it's not going to end like this.I think before Bitcoin touches 13 the market will correct and Bitcoin will reach the highest level. And even if it comes to 13k I will never worry. Because I believe in Bitcoin, it will never end. I think very soon Bitcoin will fix and reach the highest level.

[NotATether]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Bitcoin doesn't follow the Fed's inflation model, the price changes are completely reaction-based and can be modeled with logarithmic rainbow charts. It can be argued that the recent interest cuts have already been factored into the current Bitcoin price.

[Abiky]

I think in short term it's possible for bitcoin to reach 17k or even 16 or 15k, but in long run, it'll cross 60k easily.

I made a thread where everyone will predict the price of btc whether it'll hit the mark of 45k/BTC but it seems we're a long way from hitting that mark and maybe we'll have to wait 2 more years for bitcoin to actually go over that price.

You seem to be forgetting that the global economy is in a very bad state. Without showing signs of improvement, you can't expect Bitcoin to reach a new All-time-high in price anytime soon. People are focused on rising energy, gas, and food costs which are essential commodities in daily life. That means investors won't have spare money to pour into crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. No capital influx, means low demand on the market.

I think we're going to have to wait a little longer until the Russia-Ukraine crisis is over. Once there are no more disruptions on the global supply chain, everything would be gradually going back to normal. Who knows if 2024 through 2025 turns out to be a good season for BTC? Just my thoughts

[Minecache]

I think in short term it's possible for bitcoin to reach 17k or even 16 or 15k, but in long run, it'll cross 60k easily.

I made a thread where everyone will predict the price of btc whether it'll hit the mark of 45k/BTC but it seems we're a long way from hitting that mark and maybe we'll have to wait 2 more years for bitcoin to actually go over that price.

You seem to be forgetting that the global economy is in a very bad state. Without showing signs of improvement, you can't expect Bitcoin to reach a new All-time-high in price anytime soon. People are focused on rising energy, gas, and food costs which are essential commodities in daily life. That means investors won't have spare money to pour into crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. No capital influx, means low demand on the market.

I think we're going to have to wait a little longer until the Russia-Ukraine crisis is over. Once there are no more disruptions on the global supply chain, everything would be gradually going back to normal. Who knows if 2024 through 2025 turns out to be a good season for BTC? Just my thoughts

I remember when bitcoin started to drop at the end of 2021, which means bitcoin is still in a 4-year cycle, and after the price reaches its ATH, it will begin to drop. The price drop happened before the war and then the inflation, the crisis...I think without these events we wouldn't be able to expect a bull season to come to us anytime soon, we still have to go through the same 4-year cycle as in the past. I'm wondering if the end of the war and the economic recovery before 2024 mean that before the halving happens, bitcoin will rise and create a new ATH?

[jakdanyel]

Bitcoin can also fall to $12k. I don't think this is the most important. Only long-term investors will have given a few thousand dollars too much. But considering that the value of bitcoin will be $ 100k in the future, I don't think it will cause problems. Both due to increasing inflation, and together with the volume generated by bitcoin, I do not think that the minimum value of bitcoin will be less than $ 10k. Since Bitcoin increases the maximum value it reaches every time, it also causes the smallest value to increase.

[Abiky]

I remember when bitcoin started to drop at the end of 2021, which means bitcoin is still in a 4-year cycle, and after the price reaches its ATH, it will begin to drop. The price drop happened before the war and then the inflation, the crisis...I think without these events we wouldn't be able to expect a bull season to come to us anytime soon, we still have to go through the same 4-year cycle as in the past. I'm wondering if the end of the war and the economic recovery before 2024 mean that before the halving happens, bitcoin will rise and create a new ATH?

Probably. But if the global economy takes longer to recover, don't count on BTC reaching a new ATH in price anytime soon. The war needs to end first before we can talk about bringing back the economy to its former glory. A Ukrainian victory would certainly put an end to all of this mess. But if Russia wins, things will only get worse as it will escalate to other countries such as Poland, Finland, and Georgia. I don't think the EU will even manage to switch towards alternative energy sources, when it was so reliant on Russian energy exports. If somehow they manage to achieve this, then we'll be one step closer towards heading back to normal. The US would need to ramp up oil production and cut off fossil fuels to help lower costs for good.

We'll see how Bitcoin will fare during a long-lasting economic crisis. It'll be a "miracle" if it goes all the way to the moon at a time when there's global uncertainty. It happened during the initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021), so maybe 2024 will be BTC's luckiest year after all? Just my thoughts

[franky1]

the war is just the excuse of world wide inflation

take energy.
here in the UK we have nuclear power and our oil/gas fuels are in the north sea. our energy companies increased its prices because its stuck with selling them on the global market order sheet(international price but even though the energy stayed local). but that just means that it profited HUGELY

inflation has been opportunistic
growth was held down for a decade, payrises of the lower wages did not move much so suddenly now there is a war politicians across the planet can hike things up in price and point the finger at "war"

that said
this seasons bitcoin prices still buy more goods than the last relative low before the last years ATH

yep before the last ATH the low was in 2020 of ~$4k

bitcoin in 2022 still at its lowest for 2022 stil buys more goods and services than 2020 bitcoin low

[ethereumhunter]

Bitcoin can also fall to $12k. I don't think this is the most important. Only long-term investors will have given a few thousand dollars too much. But considering that the value of bitcoin will be $ 100k in the future, I don't think it will cause problems. Both due to increasing inflation, and together with the volume generated by bitcoin, I do not think that the minimum value of bitcoin will be less than $ 10k. Since Bitcoin increases the maximum value it reaches every time, it also causes the smallest value to increase.

Bitcoin can go up or down at any time and we will not be able to guess it. And for now, bitcoin has fallen to $16k and there is still a chance it could drop again and no one knows what the next low will be. But I don't think it's because of rising inflation but maybe because there's still negative news about bitcoin that triggers people to panic. But we can still hope that bitcoin can go up high and many people are predicting that the price of bitcoin can reach over $100k.

[Yatsan]

Bitcoin can also fall to $12k. I don't think this is the most important. Only long-term investors will have given a few thousand dollars too much. But considering that the value of bitcoin will be $ 100k in the future, I don't think it will cause problems. Both due to increasing inflation, and together with the volume generated by bitcoin, I do not think that the minimum value of bitcoin will be less than $ 10k. Since Bitcoin increases the maximum value it reaches every time, it also causes the smallest value to increase.

Bitcoin can go up or down at any time and we will not be able to guess it. And for now, bitcoin has fallen to $16k and there is still a chance it could drop again and no one knows what the next low will be. But I don't think it's because of rising inflation but maybe because there's still negative news about bitcoin that triggers people to panic. But we can still hope that bitcoin can go up high and many people are predicting that the price of bitcoin can reach over $100k.

As I have read comments from different users; it made me come up with the idea on how inflation became related to what is happening in cryptoindustry especially with the market value of cryptos. Maybe, due to inflation rate, small investors(which are more than the big ones) are prioritizing necessities more than investing at this point. Market goods became more expensive and in some countries minimum wages haven't adjusted yet which might forced them to pull out their investments temporarily, causing low demand to cryptocurrencies and eventually affecting its price. This is the only idea, on my end, which binds inflation and market prices of crypto, since it is always being brought up.

[tranthidung]

Bitcoin price is very cheaper than its all time high. If anyone dreamed to see this price under $20,000 a few months ago, now they have it and should take it.

I think Bitcoin is gradually forming its bottom but it will need more months to pass through some necessary phases of psychology of market before a new bull run can be started. We have yet reached to Capitulation and Anger phases and before an ending of Anger phase, we should have another terrible dump which is a last test. That dump should be similar to what we saw in March 2020.

[GreatArkansas]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Hmmm. You got a point here but for me, I don't consider inflation on Bitcoin. At first, when the inflation rate pumped for most of the countries in the world, I was expecting Bitcoin will skyrocket but what happened was the opposite, there was no excuse for the major problem in the world right now.
So for me, this is normal, what $13k or $14k last 2017 or any past years is also the same today.

[Fundamentals Of]

I am not making the computation but it is possible. It could be that what you could buy with your $13,000-$14,000 before, you can only buy now with $17,500. But to be clear it is not Bitcoin that is subject to inflation and value devaluation over time. Bitcoin's price could only rise and fall depending on the supply and demand. What we are basically talking about is the price of Bitcoin in US dollar. It is the US dollar that is subject to inflation and is continuously losing value.

[bittraffic]

I am not making the computation but it is possible. It could be that what you could buy with your $13,000-$14,000 before, you can only buy now with $17,500. But to be clear it is not Bitcoin that is subject to inflation and value devaluation over time. Bitcoin's price could only rise and fall depending on the supply and demand. What we are basically talking about is the price of Bitcoin in US dollar. It is the US dollar that is subject to inflation and is continuously losing value.

After FTX collapse that dragged us to this current price, it's very unsure that TA can be good to measure bottoms anymore. If FTX is linked to SEC which is technically the government, the contagion might drag us down deeper. It's probably best not to keep our hopes up too much because they could involve more companies down too like Greyscale. It's been on the news lately.

The users who believed the TA analysis predicting the price to not come down back to 17K are a loss this time.

[DanWalker]

I am not making the computation but it is possible. It could be that what you could buy with your $13,000-$14,000 before, you can only buy now with $17,500. But to be clear it is not Bitcoin that is subject to inflation and value devaluation over time. Bitcoin's price could only rise and fall depending on the supply and demand. What we are basically talking about is the price of Bitcoin in US dollar. It is the US dollar that is subject to inflation and is continuously losing value.

Have you looked at the market yet? and bitcoin below $16k, with what FTX has done, I still believe bitcoin can continue to fall even further. The Bitcoin price is falling due to supply and demand, panic selling is happening in the market so that's normal, don't blame USD. It is true that the USD inflations and depreciates over time but in this case it is clear that bitcoin is falling in price because we are in a bear cycle. And I see bitcoin price drop as a good thing not a bad thing but you got scared and blamed USD.

[pooya87]

At first, when the inflation rate pumped for most of the countries in the world, I was expecting Bitcoin will skyrocket but what happened was the opposite,

This is what I expected too and it is a logical thing to expect too. Here is the important part: this expectation is correct!

The only reason why bitcoin price is not going up is that we are not seeing inflation alone. We are seeing inflation and recession. As the economy tanks and companies shut down or let their employees go, people don't have enough money to make any kind of investment. Instead they have to dig into their savings, their investment, etc. and that means selling more bitcoins instead of buying more. Hence the drop.

Otherwise if this was only inflation (price of everything going up) without people losing their jobs or having decreased income, the bitcoin price would have been over $100k by now since people would have made investments with they money they had to keep their purchase power.

[Adbitco]

Basically $17.5k is not the bottom at which price may go below, currently during bear market you can't actually predict how low it may be but along the line it would be determined by itself so $14k to $13k is still possible however, I have seen December to always be a favorable months for crypto.

[Fundamentals Of]

I am not making the computation but it is possible. It could be that what you could buy with your $13,000-$14,000 before, you can only buy now with $17,500. But to be clear it is not Bitcoin that is subject to inflation and value devaluation over time. Bitcoin's price could only rise and fall depending on the supply and demand. What we are basically talking about is the price of Bitcoin in US dollar. It is the US dollar that is subject to inflation and is continuously losing value.

Have you looked at the market yet? and bitcoin below $16k, with what FTX has done, I still believe bitcoin can continue to fall even further. The Bitcoin price is falling due to supply and demand, panic selling is happening in the market so that's normal, don't blame USD. It is true that the USD inflations and depreciates over time but in this case it is clear that bitcoin is falling in price because we are in a bear cycle. And I see bitcoin price drop as a good thing not a bad thing but you got scared and blamed USD.

You don't understand. We are talking about inflation. OP didn't talk about FTX and whatever shit it has brought to the market. Bitcoin is not subject to inflation. It is not Bitcoin's design that it should lose a portion of its purchasing power as time passes by. That is the design of fiat. And we are not talking about Bitcoin in the sense that 1 BTC=1 BTC. We are talking about Bitcoin in its USD equivalent. If Bitcoin pre-hyperinflation is $15,000 and it is still $15,000 after inflation, that means it is losing purchasing power.

I'm scared? I didn't sell during the 2018 bear market. I didn't sell when Bitcoin rose to its ATH. I didn't sell when it fell to $50,000 and then to $30,000, $20,000, etc. I never panicked sell. You can check my public address. How about you?