Could 17.5k BTC actually be 13-14k pre-inflation?

[necudo]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

[Z-tight]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value

Inflation does not cause things to go up in value, prices may have gone up but not their value, inflation does the opposite, and that is to make things like paper money to lose their value.

do you think that 17.5k (which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Your understanding of inflation is skewed and so the rest of the post is inaccurate, but by the way bitcoin is a deflationary asset, and fiat would be a better option for pre and current inflation comparison and analysis.

[hatshepsut93]

Does it even matter? Everything changes its value. With the recent inflation, some goods went up by 20%, some by 50% and some even became cheaper. It's also very different from country to country. And Bitcoin market recently reacted negatively to inflation, rather than being a hedge against it, probably because Bitcoin is more of an asset for "good" times rather than "bad" times.

[jackg]

It could be but I don't think it makes a difference to.much except thinking out loud.

A lot of people look at asset values without the scope of inflation so they'll probably see bitcoins value being similar to when it was last at 17.5k (before the rallies to 60k).

The other issue with this is the s&p500 and a lot of other assets are on sale (/cheaper) in terms of both inflation and current valuations compared to the past.

[pooya87]

For what you said to make sense you first have to prove why you think bottom should have been $13k-$14k and then you should prove why bitcoin price has to change with inflation?
Not to mention that we are talking on a global scale not local so which country are you talking about and why do you think that has to be the only factor affecting bitcoin price? Right now we have inflation that goes from 1% all the way to above 100% (Turkey for example is almost at 90% inflation).

[uneng]

I believe you are right on your assumption, because minimum wage has been raised about 20% in my country on the last 2 years, what means the costs of everything have been raised on the same proportion.

For bitcoin to fight inflation back it can't remain stable in price. It has to be constantly rising to compensate the losses imposed on us by fiat.

Unfortunatelly, that is not what we are seeing right now, but I hope as soon as the market enters a new phase bitcoin is going to compensate all the devaluations faced during the last years in the traditional fiat economy with wide advantage for holders.

[rin24]

Judging from past and using percentages in loss, I do not think price will go lower, this should be the bottom and it is already for a few months pretty stable, unless nothing crazy will happen in near future ~19k +- will be the lowest price

[piebeyb]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

people prefer to wait to buy it under $15k, even though I often say that yesterday's $17.5k was the lowest point of the bitcoin price after a while we always held close to the price of $19k and $20k, do people think rich people and companies that having invested in bitcoin this will let the price drop below it again, that's unlikely, so taking the moment it's right to buy it cheap at the current price before the train goes fast and leaves you

[Beparanf]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

You view inflation the wrong way. Inflation affects the buy power of dollars which makes the commodity higher in USD amount since the supply of USD is continuously increasing. BiTcoin is not directly affected by inflation since it’s value is based on speculation and no one can set the price to controls it. It’s absurd to incorporate the effect of inflation to Bitcoin because it has a separate to the global economy due to its deflationary feature.

Maybe you right about the bottom but it will jot adjust base on inflation but rather on people speculation on how they view Bitcoin value.

[Findingnemo]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Bitcoin doesn't get affected by the inflation and one bitcoin is equal to one bitcoin all the time, the price calculation you mentioned is very generic with no evidence but as per the official inflation of US report it isn't 20% so it maybe 17K instead of 17.5K that's it.

But here something we should know why we have to face the inflation and what it does good for the people which is completely nothing all we face is losing the buying power of our savings and being slave for lifetime due to this fiat inflation trap.

[aylabadia05]

The impact felt by various groups due to inflation is quite pronounced. For example, the result of inflation is an increase in the price of goods, people's income is reduced and purchasing power will also decrease if we look at it based on the Customer Price Index (CPI). That's the general picture of Inflation.

Regarding what you mean, inflation has nothing to do with the value of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is different from fiat currency whose value can change due to inflation. While Bitcoin will not change in value even though the world is experiencing high inflation.

Maybe you will find a sentence or statement that says 1 BTC = 1 BTC.

May be useful.

[The Cryptovator]

It's not only hard to predict but also impossible. We have seen a couple of predictions around social media which are about 13-14K. Also, some prediction Bitcoin would reach 100K by next year. So hard to even believe the prediction. The world facing huge inflation lately due to many reasons and one of them is war. If it doesn't stop then we may see a downtrend, to be honest. Very rarely is good news coming out lately where we are hopeless.

[blockman]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

I get the idea of what you're trying to ask but you could do all the calculations let's take the numbers as is what it is. The matter of inflation still relies on the purchasing power that we've got and if you ever convert the bitcoin that you have and that's how you think of matter with how much you've got after selling bitcoin at the current rate. But it isn't a big matter at all to consider since we're all just speculating and trying to look at the perspective in relation to inflation and bitcoin's current price.

[yudi09]

When we are in an inflationary situation that causes the economy to be tough and the average price of goods is rising, investing in Bitcoin is the thing to do to maintain the hedge for years.
Don't look at Bitcoin's lows and highs, but focus on value.
Fiat will not guarantee value when the country's economy is struggling.

[pooya87]

When we are in an inflationary situation that causes the economy to be tough and the average price of goods is rising, investing in Bitcoin is the thing to do to maintain the hedge for years.

There is two problems with this which is why price isn't yet rising.
Many people still don't know about bitcoin or still believe the FUD they've been fed over the years so they stay away from the only reliable hedge against inflation.

The other problem is that people invest their money if they face small inflation but in most countries like in Europe we have much bigger than normal inflation and even hyperinflation. Not to mention that in many cases inflation is mixed with recession like in US which means people don't have enough money for their regular expenses let alone have anything left for investment.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

First thing I will like to advise here is to stop the comparison of bitcoin to inflation, inflation is an economic consequence of drop in fiat economy performance considering all other economic indication  for goods and services productivity, bitcoin works only by the supply and demand in it limited capacity and the running of bitcoin is not on an inflation base, it have nothing to drop by with value it represents, that's why you see many having the entire misconception of bitcoin volatility to drop in value whenever it's running bear which is wrong, fiat increases in price and not value while bitcoin increases in both value and price, so this present bear is a preparation to gain momentum for the next bullrun approaching.

[yudi09]

When we are in an inflationary situation that causes the economy to be tough and the average price of goods is rising, investing in Bitcoin is the thing to do to maintain the hedge for years.

There is two problems with this which is why price isn't yet rising.
Many people still don't know about bitcoin or still believe the FUD they've been fed over the years so they stay away from the only reliable hedge against inflation.

-

Can only nod his head while saying yes that most do not understand about Bitcoin so it can be influenced by an explanation that is not necessarily true or FUD.

Related to this, it can happen because of the length of time they know Bitcoin. If those who are very young in Bitcoin, are vulnerable to FUD. But if those who are familiar with Bitcoin with a minimum duration of more than 3 years, I think they can distinguish and understand how to hedge.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Here are some reasons:

• Most bitcoin users don't see it as a safe haven that can resist inflation if held properly, but as a speculative asset.
• Production doesn't go well.
• At times like this, people prefer to spend on necessary products like food.
• And of course, weak hands.

[ajiz138]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

people prefer to wait to buy it under $15k, even though I often say that yesterday's $17.5k was the lowest point of the bitcoin price after a while we always held close to the price of $19k and $20k, do people think rich people and companies that having invested in bitcoin this will let the price drop below it again, that's unlikely, so taking the moment it's right to buy it cheap at the current price before the train goes fast and leaves you

Because of that bitcoin is not the same as fiat so it is not affected by inflation I think a lot of people are waiting for low prices because there is quite high inflation and this is hoping for Bitcoin prices I don't think that will happen even though many say the low point is $15k and it is always waiting for those who want it, so I won't wait for the uncertain but with $19k it's a good point to buy now don't wait for a forecast that may not happen.
Buy it and HOLD it.

When we are in an inflationary situation that causes the economy to be tough and the average price of goods is rising, investing in Bitcoin is the thing to do to maintain the hedge for years.
Don't look at Bitcoin's lows and highs, but focus on value.
Fiat will not guarantee value when the country's economy is struggling.

We have already felt how the price of goods has gone up because the inflation that continues to rise is enough to trigger the war between Russia and Ukraine, according to some sources, resulting in several problems, so it is inevitable that all will feel the same impact, so the value of fiat could be decreased because of the inflation, so it is true that we have to choose Bitcoin as an asset to invest there this will even be my hedge in the future for several years which is expected to be high.

[Abiky]

Does it even matter? Everything changes its value. With the recent inflation, some goods went up by 20%, some by 50% and some even became cheaper. It's also very different from country to country. And Bitcoin market recently reacted negatively to inflation, rather than being a hedge against it, probably because Bitcoin is more of an asset for "good" times rather than "bad" times.

Bitcoin went down during inflation times because people often view it as an investment than a currency. You can see why Bitcoin has been moving in correlation with the stock market lately. When tech stocks go down, the same happens to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies being traded on the market today. The FED's monetary policy (rising interest rates) has made matters worse, as Bitcoin struggles to get past $20k per coin.

I hope the day comes when Bitcoin becomes independent from real world events, so it could prove its real value proposition as sound money for the unbanked. That means using Bitcoin without ever needing to know its price in Fiat terms. 1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin, right? Who knows what the future holds for Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional Fiat currencies? Just my opinion

[Yaunfitda]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Possible, but what is the point of thinking it that way? I mean prices is going down, we are in the bear market, it went from $69k to $17.5 or whatever price you think. So that's basically what happened in a long hard and grind bear market.

We will definitely have to bottom in this cycle, right now it's $17.5k. Maybe next year when the market is still in the negative in could be in $13k-$14k like your price pre-inflation, but it doesn't mean anything to bitcoin investors.

[Inwestour]

We will definitely have to bottom in this cycle, right now it's $17.5k. Maybe next year when the market is still in the negative in could be in $13k-$14k like your price pre-inflation, but it doesn't mean anything to bitcoin investors.

It just means that if the price drops lower, then we will be able to buy some bitcoin at a lower price. But at the moment, the 19k support level was as an insurmountable level for the bears and now we see that bitcoin has begun to grow, so now there are more chances to go up than down, a temporary rebound is possible. Don't worry about temporary fall, we'll see big gains in the long run.

[worldofcoins]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

I think in short term it's possible for bitcoin to reach 17k or even 16 or 15k, but in long run, it'll cross 60k easily.

I made a thread where everyone will predict the price of btc whether it'll hit the mark of 45k/BTC but it seems we're a long way from hitting that mark and maybe we'll have to wait 2 more years for bitcoin to actually go over that price.

[Rahul09]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Of course, the price of everything has doubled in the last 2 years. But despite everything going up, the price of Bitcoin has halved which is now hovering between 18k and 20k. This condition of Bitcoin is due to the bad market conditions. But this bad situation is not new for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is where it is today by facing such a situation. Similarly, we have to wait for Bitcoin to reach higher levels. And now that Bitcoin is at 18k,but it's not going to end like this.I think before Bitcoin touches 13 the market will correct and Bitcoin will reach the highest level. And even if it comes to 13k I will never worry. Because I believe in Bitcoin, it will never end. I think very soon Bitcoin will fix and reach the highest level.

[NotATether]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Bitcoin doesn't follow the Fed's inflation model, the price changes are completely reaction-based and can be modeled with logarithmic rainbow charts. It can be argued that the recent interest cuts have already been factored into the current Bitcoin price.

[Abiky]

I think in short term it's possible for bitcoin to reach 17k or even 16 or 15k, but in long run, it'll cross 60k easily.

I made a thread where everyone will predict the price of btc whether it'll hit the mark of 45k/BTC but it seems we're a long way from hitting that mark and maybe we'll have to wait 2 more years for bitcoin to actually go over that price.

You seem to be forgetting that the global economy is in a very bad state. Without showing signs of improvement, you can't expect Bitcoin to reach a new All-time-high in price anytime soon. People are focused on rising energy, gas, and food costs which are essential commodities in daily life. That means investors won't have spare money to pour into crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. No capital influx, means low demand on the market.

I think we're going to have to wait a little longer until the Russia-Ukraine crisis is over. Once there are no more disruptions on the global supply chain, everything would be gradually going back to normal. Who knows if 2024 through 2025 turns out to be a good season for BTC? Just my thoughts

[Minecache]

I think in short term it's possible for bitcoin to reach 17k or even 16 or 15k, but in long run, it'll cross 60k easily.

I made a thread where everyone will predict the price of btc whether it'll hit the mark of 45k/BTC but it seems we're a long way from hitting that mark and maybe we'll have to wait 2 more years for bitcoin to actually go over that price.

You seem to be forgetting that the global economy is in a very bad state. Without showing signs of improvement, you can't expect Bitcoin to reach a new All-time-high in price anytime soon. People are focused on rising energy, gas, and food costs which are essential commodities in daily life. That means investors won't have spare money to pour into crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. No capital influx, means low demand on the market.

I think we're going to have to wait a little longer until the Russia-Ukraine crisis is over. Once there are no more disruptions on the global supply chain, everything would be gradually going back to normal. Who knows if 2024 through 2025 turns out to be a good season for BTC? Just my thoughts

I remember when bitcoin started to drop at the end of 2021, which means bitcoin is still in a 4-year cycle, and after the price reaches its ATH, it will begin to drop. The price drop happened before the war and then the inflation, the crisis...I think without these events we wouldn't be able to expect a bull season to come to us anytime soon, we still have to go through the same 4-year cycle as in the past. I'm wondering if the end of the war and the economic recovery before 2024 mean that before the halving happens, bitcoin will rise and create a new ATH?

[jakdanyel]

Bitcoin can also fall to $12k. I don't think this is the most important. Only long-term investors will have given a few thousand dollars too much. But considering that the value of bitcoin will be $ 100k in the future, I don't think it will cause problems. Both due to increasing inflation, and together with the volume generated by bitcoin, I do not think that the minimum value of bitcoin will be less than $ 10k. Since Bitcoin increases the maximum value it reaches every time, it also causes the smallest value to increase.

[Abiky]

I remember when bitcoin started to drop at the end of 2021, which means bitcoin is still in a 4-year cycle, and after the price reaches its ATH, it will begin to drop. The price drop happened before the war and then the inflation, the crisis...I think without these events we wouldn't be able to expect a bull season to come to us anytime soon, we still have to go through the same 4-year cycle as in the past. I'm wondering if the end of the war and the economic recovery before 2024 mean that before the halving happens, bitcoin will rise and create a new ATH?

Probably. But if the global economy takes longer to recover, don't count on BTC reaching a new ATH in price anytime soon. The war needs to end first before we can talk about bringing back the economy to its former glory. A Ukrainian victory would certainly put an end to all of this mess. But if Russia wins, things will only get worse as it will escalate to other countries such as Poland, Finland, and Georgia. I don't think the EU will even manage to switch towards alternative energy sources, when it was so reliant on Russian energy exports. If somehow they manage to achieve this, then we'll be one step closer towards heading back to normal. The US would need to ramp up oil production and cut off fossil fuels to help lower costs for good.

We'll see how Bitcoin will fare during a long-lasting economic crisis. It'll be a "miracle" if it goes all the way to the moon at a time when there's global uncertainty. It happened during the initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021), so maybe 2024 will be BTC's luckiest year after all? Just my thoughts

[franky1]

the war is just the excuse of world wide inflation

take energy.
here in the UK we have nuclear power and our oil/gas fuels are in the north sea. our energy companies increased its prices because its stuck with selling them on the global market order sheet(international price but even though the energy stayed local). but that just means that it profited HUGELY

inflation has been opportunistic
growth was held down for a decade, payrises of the lower wages did not move much so suddenly now there is a war politicians across the planet can hike things up in price and point the finger at "war"

that said
this seasons bitcoin prices still buy more goods than the last relative low before the last years ATH

yep before the last ATH the low was in 2020 of ~$4k

bitcoin in 2022 still at its lowest for 2022 stil buys more goods and services than 2020 bitcoin low

[ethereumhunter]

Bitcoin can also fall to $12k. I don't think this is the most important. Only long-term investors will have given a few thousand dollars too much. But considering that the value of bitcoin will be $ 100k in the future, I don't think it will cause problems. Both due to increasing inflation, and together with the volume generated by bitcoin, I do not think that the minimum value of bitcoin will be less than $ 10k. Since Bitcoin increases the maximum value it reaches every time, it also causes the smallest value to increase.

Bitcoin can go up or down at any time and we will not be able to guess it. And for now, bitcoin has fallen to $16k and there is still a chance it could drop again and no one knows what the next low will be. But I don't think it's because of rising inflation but maybe because there's still negative news about bitcoin that triggers people to panic. But we can still hope that bitcoin can go up high and many people are predicting that the price of bitcoin can reach over $100k.

[Yatsan]

Bitcoin can also fall to $12k. I don't think this is the most important. Only long-term investors will have given a few thousand dollars too much. But considering that the value of bitcoin will be $ 100k in the future, I don't think it will cause problems. Both due to increasing inflation, and together with the volume generated by bitcoin, I do not think that the minimum value of bitcoin will be less than $ 10k. Since Bitcoin increases the maximum value it reaches every time, it also causes the smallest value to increase.

Bitcoin can go up or down at any time and we will not be able to guess it. And for now, bitcoin has fallen to $16k and there is still a chance it could drop again and no one knows what the next low will be. But I don't think it's because of rising inflation but maybe because there's still negative news about bitcoin that triggers people to panic. But we can still hope that bitcoin can go up high and many people are predicting that the price of bitcoin can reach over $100k.

As I have read comments from different users; it made me come up with the idea on how inflation became related to what is happening in cryptoindustry especially with the market value of cryptos. Maybe, due to inflation rate, small investors(which are more than the big ones) are prioritizing necessities more than investing at this point. Market goods became more expensive and in some countries minimum wages haven't adjusted yet which might forced them to pull out their investments temporarily, causing low demand to cryptocurrencies and eventually affecting its price. This is the only idea, on my end, which binds inflation and market prices of crypto, since it is always being brought up.

[tranthidung]

Bitcoin price is very cheaper than its all time high. If anyone dreamed to see this price under $20,000 a few months ago, now they have it and should take it.

I think Bitcoin is gradually forming its bottom but it will need more months to pass through some necessary phases of psychology of market before a new bull run can be started. We have yet reached to Capitulation and Anger phases and before an ending of Anger phase, we should have another terrible dump which is a last test. That dump should be similar to what we saw in March 2020.

[GreatArkansas]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Hmmm. You got a point here but for me, I don't consider inflation on Bitcoin. At first, when the inflation rate pumped for most of the countries in the world, I was expecting Bitcoin will skyrocket but what happened was the opposite, there was no excuse for the major problem in the world right now.
So for me, this is normal, what $13k or $14k last 2017 or any past years is also the same today.

[Fundamentals Of]

I am not making the computation but it is possible. It could be that what you could buy with your $13,000-$14,000 before, you can only buy now with $17,500. But to be clear it is not Bitcoin that is subject to inflation and value devaluation over time. Bitcoin's price could only rise and fall depending on the supply and demand. What we are basically talking about is the price of Bitcoin in US dollar. It is the US dollar that is subject to inflation and is continuously losing value.

[bittraffic]

I am not making the computation but it is possible. It could be that what you could buy with your $13,000-$14,000 before, you can only buy now with $17,500. But to be clear it is not Bitcoin that is subject to inflation and value devaluation over time. Bitcoin's price could only rise and fall depending on the supply and demand. What we are basically talking about is the price of Bitcoin in US dollar. It is the US dollar that is subject to inflation and is continuously losing value.

After FTX collapse that dragged us to this current price, it's very unsure that TA can be good to measure bottoms anymore. If FTX is linked to SEC which is technically the government, the contagion might drag us down deeper. It's probably best not to keep our hopes up too much because they could involve more companies down too like Greyscale. It's been on the news lately.

The users who believed the TA analysis predicting the price to not come down back to 17K are a loss this time.

[DanWalker]

I am not making the computation but it is possible. It could be that what you could buy with your $13,000-$14,000 before, you can only buy now with $17,500. But to be clear it is not Bitcoin that is subject to inflation and value devaluation over time. Bitcoin's price could only rise and fall depending on the supply and demand. What we are basically talking about is the price of Bitcoin in US dollar. It is the US dollar that is subject to inflation and is continuously losing value.

Have you looked at the market yet? and bitcoin below $16k, with what FTX has done, I still believe bitcoin can continue to fall even further. The Bitcoin price is falling due to supply and demand, panic selling is happening in the market so that's normal, don't blame USD. It is true that the USD inflations and depreciates over time but in this case it is clear that bitcoin is falling in price because we are in a bear cycle. And I see bitcoin price drop as a good thing not a bad thing but you got scared and blamed USD.

[pooya87]

At first, when the inflation rate pumped for most of the countries in the world, I was expecting Bitcoin will skyrocket but what happened was the opposite,

This is what I expected too and it is a logical thing to expect too. Here is the important part: this expectation is correct!

The only reason why bitcoin price is not going up is that we are not seeing inflation alone. We are seeing inflation and recession. As the economy tanks and companies shut down or let their employees go, people don't have enough money to make any kind of investment. Instead they have to dig into their savings, their investment, etc. and that means selling more bitcoins instead of buying more. Hence the drop.

Otherwise if this was only inflation (price of everything going up) without people losing their jobs or having decreased income, the bitcoin price would have been over $100k by now since people would have made investments with they money they had to keep their purchase power.

[Adbitco]

Basically $17.5k is not the bottom at which price may go below, currently during bear market you can't actually predict how low it may be but along the line it would be determined by itself so $14k to $13k is still possible however, I have seen December to always be a favorable months for crypto.

[Fundamentals Of]

I am not making the computation but it is possible. It could be that what you could buy with your $13,000-$14,000 before, you can only buy now with $17,500. But to be clear it is not Bitcoin that is subject to inflation and value devaluation over time. Bitcoin's price could only rise and fall depending on the supply and demand. What we are basically talking about is the price of Bitcoin in US dollar. It is the US dollar that is subject to inflation and is continuously losing value.

Have you looked at the market yet? and bitcoin below $16k, with what FTX has done, I still believe bitcoin can continue to fall even further. The Bitcoin price is falling due to supply and demand, panic selling is happening in the market so that's normal, don't blame USD. It is true that the USD inflations and depreciates over time but in this case it is clear that bitcoin is falling in price because we are in a bear cycle. And I see bitcoin price drop as a good thing not a bad thing but you got scared and blamed USD.

You don't understand. We are talking about inflation. OP didn't talk about FTX and whatever shit it has brought to the market. Bitcoin is not subject to inflation. It is not Bitcoin's design that it should lose a portion of its purchasing power as time passes by. That is the design of fiat. And we are not talking about Bitcoin in the sense that 1 BTC=1 BTC. We are talking about Bitcoin in its USD equivalent. If Bitcoin pre-hyperinflation is $15,000 and it is still $15,000 after inflation, that means it is losing purchasing power.

I'm scared? I didn't sell during the 2018 bear market. I didn't sell when Bitcoin rose to its ATH. I didn't sell when it fell to $50,000 and then to $30,000, $20,000, etc. I never panicked sell. You can check my public address. How about you?

[Abiky]

the war is just the excuse of world wide inflation

take energy.
here in the UK we have nuclear power and our oil/gas fuels are in the north sea. our energy companies increased its prices because its stuck with selling them on the global market order sheet(international price but even though the energy stayed local). but that just means that it profited HUGELY

inflation has been opportunistic
growth was held down for a decade, payrises of the lower wages did not move much so suddenly now there is a war politicians across the planet can hike things up in price and point the finger at "war"

that said
this seasons bitcoin prices still buy more goods than the last relative low before the last years ATH

yep before the last ATH the low was in 2020 of ~$4k

bitcoin in 2022 still at its lowest for 2022 stil buys more goods and services than 2020 bitcoin low

You can see how rising inflation rates benefits more the wealthy and politicians than ordinary people. If world governments would've wanted the war to end quickly, they would've done something already. It's not about supplying weapons and economic aid to Ukraine, but rather joining the war against Russia itself. While Ukraine seems to be winning, the war is still far reaching an end anytime soon. I don't think inflation will ease until the war is over. BTC's price is being severely affected because of central banks' rising interest rates.

At least, they won't be doing this forever. As you've said, Bitcoin is still worth a lot more than its low of $4k back in 2020. With Fiat currencies becoming stronger, it makes sense Bitcoin would have a lower price than usual. Just wait until this is all over, and Bitcoin will be back on track towards $100k and above. Who knows what the future holds for the cryptocurrency? Just my opinion

[Sayeds56]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Possible, but what is the point of thinking it that way? I mean prices is going down, we are in the bear market, it went from $69k to $17.5 or whatever price you think. So that's basically what happened in a long hard and grind bear market.

We will definitely have to bottom in this cycle, right now it's $17.5k. Maybe next year when the market is still in the negative in could be in $13k-$14k like your price pre-inflation, but it doesn't mean anything to bitcoin investors.

If I am understanding you correctly, you are trying to corelate value of Bitcoin with rising inflation. Since Bitcoin is deflationary asset, its price should have gone up with rising inflation because inflation reduces the value of fiat currency & increases price of commodities like Gold & silver but in fact it didn't happen and Bitcoin corelated itself with US stock market since inflation started rising. Unfortunately, markets are mostly driven by sentiments (greed & Fear) & rarely work on logic.

[LegendaryK]

So i'm basically just thinking out loud but with inflation going rampant and last 2 years everything went up at least 20% in price and value do you think that 17.5k
(which could be a bottom in current bear cycle) BTC could actually be 13-14K preinflation and 17.5k as of now a bottom adjusted for inflation?

Nope,
BTC is in the actual mid $15K today,
maybe $10k next week,
and $5k the week after.

Energy costs and lack of venture capital is going to put a hurting on BTC price verse fiat in 2023.  

[franky1]

You can see how rising inflation rates benefits more the wealthy and politicians than ordinary people. If world governments would've wanted the war to end quickly, they would've done something already. It's not about supplying weapons and economic aid to Ukraine, but rather joining the war against Russia itself. While Ukraine seems to be winning, the war is still far reaching an end anytime soon. I don't think inflation will ease until the war is over. BTC's price is being severely affected because of central banks' rising interest rates.

At least, they won't be doing this forever. As you've said, Bitcoin is still worth a lot more than its low of $4k back in 2020. With Fiat currencies becoming stronger, it makes sense Bitcoin would have a lower price than usual. Just wait until this is all over, and Bitcoin will be back on track towards $100k and above. Who knows what the future holds for the cryptocurrency? Just my opinion

in refards to the ukraine war..
since 2014.. nato wanted ukraine in the euro/nato brotherhod but didnt want the eastern par.. due to russia.

so whe russia wanted the eastern part. those to entities had similar wants..
nato/euro isnt siding with russia. but do see the banefits of russia taking the eastern side as a independant state  thats not ukraine nor russia but named as a buffer state to separate ukraine/euro away from proper russia

as for inflation..
when somone who earns $1m a year gets a 10% pat rise that is $100k

when someone on $20k gets only a £2k rise

food and heating rises by $2k a year atleast. meaning the min wage dont get any more income:costs benefit. yet the rich dont eat more food or warm more people in their house so the rich gain a $98l payrise

thus yes the rich love inflation. their income climbs by ALOT more than their daily life costs of the basics.

..
as for bitcoin

forget the ATH vs low where the low is the scary thing.
pretend the ATH never happen and look at a ground level of lows as a value indicator. bitcoin lows have been raising all the time periodically

EG                                                     _   _
                                                        /  \/  \_
                                     /!         __/\/        2022 low
                                __/  !____/  2020 low
          /|    ________/      2018 low
       _/  |_/         2016 low
___/      2014 low
2012 low

take each low of each 2 year
12.14.16.18.20.22

google the price of bread or a tin of beans or an every day product someone needs to buy regular for those years. and you will notice you can buy more with bitcoin every time